(Semiwiki) Intel 14nm Delayed Again?

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MisterMac

Senior member
Sep 16, 2011
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I don't see how that contradicts what Intel said.

Intel said they are moving forward and will adjust their funding to ASML. ASML has said their other customers aren't ready to move forward with 450mm.

If anything it just confirms what Intel said.

It makes it seem as Intel is the only ones with deep enough pockets to get on with 450mm....for now.

If they get a year or two headstart on 450mm - that's a pretty crazy scenario on top of their already powerful manufacturing prowess.
 

jdubs03

Senior member
Oct 1, 2013
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My interpretation of it was that ASML is lengthening their roadmap, Intel is hedging their options, maybe calling out ASML a little to get them to step their game up, or Intel has another supplier or in-house equipment that is ahead of where ASML is.

It is reassuring that Intel believes that they can implement (cost-effectively) 450mm by the end of the decade.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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Saw that Apple is rumored to release a 12 inch MacBook Air in the 4Q. What's notable is that it is rumored to not include a fan unlike the current models. I'd presume this is Broadwell-Y and not Cherry Trail or even A8 at this point.

So it does look like at least some of Broadwell is going to be released in 2014.
 

blackened23

Diamond Member
Jul 26, 2011
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Saw that Apple is rumored to release a 12 inch MacBook Air in the 4Q. What's notable is that it is rumored to not include a fan unlike the current models. I'd presume this is Broadwell-Y and not Cherry Trail or even A8 at this point.

So it does look like at least some of Broadwell is going to be released in 2014.

It's plausible. If anyone sells enough in terms of volume to make intel move mountains, it's Apple. In fact, AT cites Apple as the primary reason that Intel started with their iGPUs at all. Not sure how grounded that is in reality, but it could well be the case.

I thought the rumor was for a 12 inch ipad pro though? Is it a macbook air? 12 inches is cutting it thin for an ultrabook type of device, doesn't sound very likely.
 

Homeles

Platinum Member
Dec 9, 2011
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There's been rumors about both. Basically, the iPad "Pro" and MacBook Air would share the same screen.
 

Nothingness

Platinum Member
Jul 3, 2013
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So it does look like at least some of Broadwell is going to be released in 2014.
Here's what was told during Q4 conf call (you won't find the Q1 2014 earning call transcript unless you find a time machine first :biggrin:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/intels-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-010102991.html
We also exit the year having made important strides on our 14-nanometer process technology. Yields improved significant in Q4 putting it squarely on track with the Broadwell production later this quarter. Our customers and partners also continue to evolve the computing exercise. By the time we enter the back to school selling season we have nearly 70 unique 2-in-1 designs with outstanding battery life and performance across a range of price points in those markets.
The part about back to school is slightly ambiguous as it doesn't explicitly say the new designs will use Broadwell, but this is very likely.

They also said this in February:
http://www.extremetech.com/computin...-intel-delayed-14nm-deployments-until-q4-2014
We continue to make progress with the industry’s first 14nm manufacturing process and our second generation 3-D transistors. Broadwell, the first product on 14nm, is up-and-running as we demonstrated at the Intel Developer Forum in Q3’13. We’re now planning to begin production this quarter with shipments to customers later this year.
There's also a leaked roadmap showing Broadwell NUC end of this year: http://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2014...ll-nucs-coming-late-2014-says-leaked-roadmap/

I think all of this makes it pretty sure we'll see Broadwell systems this year.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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Newest Roadmap from March schedules Broadwell for Q4 as well. Broadwell-Y and some Broadwell-U 15W to be exact. On the other side Broadwell-U 28W and all Quadcore variants are scheduled for Q1 2015.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
3,938
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So new Intel desktop release cycle (Haswell->Broadwell) is 18 months. Since Broadwell K is 2015Q1, Skylake will be 2016Q3.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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A typical Fjodor2001 troll posting. Just because Haswell-->Broadwell is a 18 months cycle doesn't mean all successors will be on the same release cycle.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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A typical Fjodor2001 troll posting. Just because Haswell-->Broadwell is a 18 months cycle doesn't mean all successors will be on the same release cycle.

It could happen, but I think it'd be more likely what the OEMs want. I'd say 4Q 2015 more likely. If they ask for it, I'm sure Intel would happily oblige since it would buy them more time to work out 10 nm.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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So new Intel desktop release cycle (Haswell->Broadwell) is 18 months. Since Broadwell K is 2015Q1, Skylake will be 2016Q3.

Skylake in 2016, certainly H2, doesn't make any sense because Intel will start 10nm production in 2015.
 

AtenRa

Lifer
Feb 2, 2009
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Skylake in 2016, certainly H2, doesn't make any sense because Intel will start 10nm production in 2015.


Hell, they just started volume production of 16nm in Q1 2014 and you say they will start 10nm in 2015 ?? Even with 24 months, 10nm is going to be Q1 2016 the earliest. Add the market conditions and any R&D/Yield delays and 10nm could easily go to late 2016 or even early 2017.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
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Hell, they just started volume production of 16nm in Q1 2014 and you say they will start 10nm in 2015 ?? Even with 24 months, 10nm is going to be Q1 2016 the earliest. Add the market conditions and any R&D/Yield delays and 10nm could easily go to late 2016 or even early 2017.

Intel stated they'll start production (in Q4 obviously), so availability in Q1 2016 is unlikely. I think if Intel still wants to keep their Tick-Tock model, they should release Skylake in 2015. But now they have a second architecture for a new market that can give them a lot of money, so maybe they'll shift things a bit.
 

Fjodor2001

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2010
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Intel stated they'll start production (in Q4 obviously), so availability in Q1 2016 is unlikely. I think if Intel still wants to keep their Tick-Tock model, they should release Skylake in 2015. But now they have a second architecture for a new market that can give them a lot of money, so maybe they'll shift things a bit.

So Broadwell-K in 2015Q1 and Skylake in 2015 as well? That leaves a ~9 months or less sales window for Broadwell. No way that is going to happen.

I'd say 2016Q2-Q3 is more likely for Skylake. That's ~15-18 months sales window for Broadwell-K, which is what's been standard practice for between the latest Intel CPU generations.
 

witeken

Diamond Member
Dec 25, 2013
3,899
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Since there's no official information or rumors, we'll have to wait. But your 2016 prediction for Skylake is about the time when 10nm will be released. Do you think Cannonlake will come yet another 15 months later? I don't think so.
 

mikk

Diamond Member
May 15, 2012
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Cannonlake is realistically a 2017 product given that the 2 years time frame between two nodes is not the case anymore. Skylake on the other side don't need to deal with a new process and its issues unlike Broadwell. Broadwell for desktop wasn't even planned, hence why there is a Haswell refresh coming next month and for desktop only Broadwell-K and no other models. To rule out Skylake for H2 2015 based on that is nonsense.
 

mrmt

Diamond Member
Aug 18, 2012
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Cannonlake is realistically a 2017 product given that the 2 years time frame between two nodes is not the case anymore. Skylake on the other side don't need to deal with a new process and its issues unlike Broadwell. Broadwell for desktop wasn't even planned, hence why there is a Haswell refresh coming next month and for desktop only Broadwell-K and no other models. To rule out Skylake for H2 2015 based on that is nonsense.

You are assuming that a delay in 14nm ramp up will negatively impact 10nm time frame. The R&D pipelines run in parallel, albeit in different stages, and a delay in one of them is not assured to impact the other.
 
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