(Semiwiki) Intel 14nm Delayed Again?

[AtenRa]

Guys use common sense,

It takes approximately 3 months to finish the first batch of wafers.
It takes approximately 6 months for Intel to have substantial CPU volume to make an official CPU release.
It also takes 3-6 months for OEMs/ODMs and Integrators to release the finished products (Laptops etc) in to the market.

So, IF Intel will start manufacturing Broadwell in late Q1 2014, they will officially release in Q3 2014 and first products COULD be available in late Q4 2014.

Now, since nobody would like to have new expensive low margin products within Christmas Holidays(everyone trying to sell products they have ordered 3 or more months earlier), Im betting there will be zero Broadwell products in Q4 2014 in the market.

 

[jpiniero]

You're right, but Broadwell isn't going to need the typical standard volume to release.

 

[Fjodor2001]

You're right, but Broadwell isn't going to need the typical standard volume to release.

Hmmm.... how do you mean that would differ with Broadwell?

 

[podspi]

Hmmm.... how do you mean that would differ with Broadwell?

Because Haswell is sticking around on the desktop (and maybe mobile too? dunno).

 

[OCGuy]

Guys use common sense,

It takes approximately 3 months to finish the first batch of wafers.
It takes approximately 6 months for Intel to have substantial CPU volume to make an official CPU release.
It also takes 3-6 months for OEMs/ODMs and Integrators to release the finished products (Laptops etc) in to the market.

So, IF Intel will start manufacturing Broadwell in late Q1 2014, they will officially release in Q3 2014 and first products COULD be available in late Q4 2014.

Now, since nobody would like to have new expensive low margin products within Christmas Holidays(everyone trying to sell products they have ordered 3 or more months earlier), Im betting there will be zero Broadwell products in Q4 2014 in the market.

And it would pad their margins and there isn't anyone to lose marketshare to on desktop.

There is a reason the 14nm SoC process is being separated by Intel. That is a competitive market and will be available this year.

 

[Phynaz]

Guys use common sense,

It takes approximately 3 months to finish the first batch of wafers.

You don't seem to realize that Intel's cycle times are under 6 weeks.

 

[jpiniero]

Hmmm.... how do you mean that would differ with Broadwell?

I guess we will have to see what Intel actually ends up releasing for Broadwell, but my expectation is that Haswell Refresh will be the majority of Intel's sales well into 2015 and maybe even all the way to whenever Skylake gets released.

 

[Haserath]

I'd be surprised to see 14nm delayed since Apple would most likely push for it, and yields looked like they would make it cheaper.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a III-V node delayed as it may significantly increase chip cost. Though a 10x decrease in power could put Core into phones... But without a medium to use that speed, what would be the point.

Maybe Intel could finally break into the market with the concept of your phone becoming your PC. Would just need a support device that connects usb/hdmi/etc until monitors support it themselves. They could use lightpeak and own the market.

 

[AtenRa]

You don't seem to realize that Intel's cycle times are under 6 weeks.

Haswell started to be manufactured in Q4 2012 to only be released in June 2013. Do you actually expect any Broadwell CPU to be available earlier than Q3 2014 if production starts in late Q1 2014 ??

Haswell Laptops only started to appear in the market in Q4 2013 and still today (Q1 2014) the majority of laptops available are with Ivy.

 

[AtenRa]

What’s Intel planning in 2014?

Broadwell will not even be released in 2014 ??

 

[Phynaz]

It takes approximately 3 months to finish the first batch of wafers.
It takes approximately 6 months for Intel to have substantial CPU volume to make an official CPU release.

Following your "common sense" from the first quoted post, and looking at this post in which you claim Moorsetown is out in Q3, then there CANNOT be a 14nm delay.

You keep contradicting yourself.

 

[witeken]

What’s Intel planning in 2014?

Broadwell will not even be released in 2014 ??

Of course Broadwell will be released in 2014. The first products are expected by the back-to-school season, according to BK in a conference call.

 

[AtenRa]

Following your "common sense" from the first quoted post, and looking at this post in which you claim Moorsetown is out in Q3, then there CANNOT be a 14nm delay.

You keep contradicting yourself.

I believe you missed the most important part, I was specifically talking about Broadwell.

So, IF Intel will start manufacturing Broadwell in late Q1 2014, they will officially release in Q3 2014 and first products COULD be available in late Q4 2014.

 

[AtenRa]

Of course Broadwell will be released in 2014. The first products are expected by the back-to-school season, according to BK in a conference call.

So, the above graph is outdated or the information back in the conference call is not valid anymore.

 

[Phynaz]

I believe you missed the most important part, I was specifically talking about Broadwell.

Really?

Hmm, no Broadwell in 2014 then ?? If that rumor is true, then 14nm ATOM may be pushed to 2015 as well.

Why isn't Broadwell in your thread title?

You're moving the goalposts again.

 

[Sweepr]

Mobile Broadwell (U/Y line) is still launching in Q4: http://chinese.vr-zone.com/101775/i...ight-effect-apple-macbook-air-timing-02172014
Some Broadwell-Y models will launch as soon as Q3.

I dont remmember a single roadmap saying 37-57W stuff would launch in 2014, they were always 2015 in my mind. Low voltage is probably more important to Intel right now. Also, Cherry Trail comes in Q4.

Hmm, no Broadwell in 2014 then ?? If that rumor is true, then 14nm ATOM may be pushed to 2015 as well.

You can stop the drama now.

 

[AtenRa]

Really?



Why isn't Broadwell in your thread title?

You're moving the goalposts again.

You first quote me talking strictly about Broadwell and then accuse me why i havent put Broadwell in the thread title ??

The thread is about Intel 14nm in general.

Later, I was specifically talking about Broadwell and if it would be released or not in 2014.
Did you see me talk about 14nm ATOMs except in the OP ??? The "common sense" was about Broadwell and what may happen if production started in late Q1 2014.
Latest information as of today, suggests there will be no Broadwell release in 2014.

 

[jpiniero]

Hmm, 28W ULT models is something new.

 

[AtenRa]

Mobile Broadwell (U/Y line) is still launching in Q4: http://chinese.vr-zone.com/101775/i...ight-effect-apple-macbook-air-timing-02172014

I dont remmember a single roadmap saying 37-57W stuff would launch in 2014, they were always 2015 in my mind. Low voltage is probably more important to Intel right now. Also, Cherry Trail comes in Q4.



You can stop the drama now.

What drama ?? I have already said that if Intel would start ther production in late Q1 2014 they could make a release in Q4 2014.

 

[witeken]

So, the above graph is outdated or the information back in the conference call is not valid anymore.

Here's the exact quote on January 16:

We also exit the year having made important strides on our 14-nanometer process technology. Yields improved significant in Q4 putting it squarely on track with the Broadwell production later this quarter. Our customers and partners also continue to evolve the computing exercise. By the time we enter the back to school selling season we have nearly 70 unique 2-in-1 designs with outstanding battery life and performance across a range of price points in those markets

 

[witeken]

Also, Cherry Trail comes in Q4.

Cherry Trail is planned for Q3 (1 year after Silvermont), Willow Trai for Q4, although I suspect it might be Q1 2015.

 

[AtenRa]

Here's the exact quote on January 16:

According to the road-map linked by Sweepr above, 15W TDP Mobile Broadwell will be released in Q4 2014. There is no way there will be any Broadwell products for back to school season.

 

[jpiniero]

Maybe he meant back-to-school in Australia?

 

[Fjodor2001]

Intel launch plans updated after the latest 14 nm Broadwell delay:

Chinese VR-Zone:

http://chinese.vr-zone.com/101775/i...ght-effect-apple-macbook-air-timing-02172014/

Google-translated to English:

http://translate.google.com/transla...ght-effect-apple-macbook-air-timing-02172014/

 

[Phynaz]

There is no way there will be any Broadwell products for back to school season.

As you would say, "bookmarked" :biggrin: