Originally posted by: TheChort
Since this is an easy to do IRL (unlike some other threads we have had ), I did this one with my sister just now.
Granted, this is fairly crude, but it is some kind of result.
Here's what I did:
I had 3 DVD boxes opened up, standing. While she was watching TV and not paying attention to me, I put an orange behind one of them. We did 37 attempts where she didn't switch her answer, and 35 attempts where she switched her answer.
Whether or not she picked the right answer on her first guess, I always deliberately showed an empty box.
That means, if she picked the right box, but switched her answer, she would automatically be wrong. If she picked the wrong box, but switched her answer, she would automatically be right, because I would already reveal the other wrong answer.
RESULTS
Switching
Win: 21/35 = 60%
Loss: 14/35 = 40%
Not Switching
Win: 10/37 = 27%
Loss: 27/37 = 73%
Originally posted by: Malak
Originally posted by: iamaelephant
I'm done trying to explain this to you. You're ignorant, arrogant, stupid and the worst thing is you think you're smart. You are too stupid to understand something that has been explained in plain English. I have come across paper weights with more brain power than you. Good day sir.
I don't know why you have to continue to insult me, it doesn't help your arguement any. Furthermore I should like to refer to the part in the article where people much smarter than you or I disputed this as well.
Originally posted by: iamaelephant
Originally posted by: Malak
The reasoning behind the explanation is stupid and I will continue to dispute it. You are left with only 2 choices, the third choice is now moot and cannot be even considered in your decision. It is a 50/50 chance and there is no reason to switch nor to not switch. It comes down to chance. You have zero advantage.
Wow. You need your head examined. Go and read the article again. And again and again and again until your understand it.
Wait, you're a Christian right? Hhmm, explains a lot.
Originally posted by: SearchMaster
Hey Malak, how many people must gather in a room to have a 50/50 chance that two of them will share a birthday? Hint: it's nowhere near 2/365.
Originally posted by: Kwaipie
Originally posted by: SearchMaster
Hey Malak, how many people must gather in a room to have a 50/50 chance that two of them will share a birthday? Hint: it's nowhere near 2/365.
if I recall, isn't the answer 31?
Originally posted by: mobobuff
In fairness to the nay sayers, this is much harder to accept than the plane taking off. I think, anyway. I was sold on the plain taking off after a minute of thinking about it, but this problem had me second guessing things for a while.
Originally posted by: BigJ
Originally posted by: mobobuff
In fairness to the nay sayers, this is much harder to accept than the plane taking off. I think, anyway. I was sold on the plain taking off after a minute of thinking about it, but this problem had me second guessing things for a while.
Both problems are non-intuitive. The key to both problems is finding an example you can understand/relate to. That's why the Wiki article is very nice on this problem, providing a couple of different examples.
Originally posted by: mercanucaribe
As soon as I read that the game show host knows which door has one, I realized that that is the key.. Either you picked the car and the host picked the door to open randomly, or you picked a sheep and he had to pick the sheep instead of the car. I don't know the math, but it feels to me like your odds are better if you switch.
Originally posted by: PhattyB
There is no advantage. All it does is gaurentee you have a 50% chance of winning some sheep love.
Originally posted by: DaShen
Originally posted by: PhattyB
There is no advantage. All it does is gaurentee you have a 50% chance of winning some sheep love.
Nope, wrong.
It goes from 1/3 to 1/2 chance if you switch.
Originally posted by: Malak
Originally posted by: iamaelephant
I'm done trying to explain this to you. You're ignorant, arrogant, stupid and the worst thing is you think you're smart. You are too stupid to understand something that has been explained in plain English. I have come across paper weights with more brain power than you. Good day sir.
I don't know why you have to continue to insult me, it doesn't help your arguement any. Furthermore I should like to refer to the part in the article where people much smarter than you or I disputed this as well.