Sheep or a Car

[yowolabi]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
ive only read up to the 3rd page, but Malek is correct. No matter what door you choise the host will always reviel a sheep in one of the 2 doors you did not select as a distraction technique and for drama sake.

We will say for arguement sake your first pic was the door with the car. The host knows this but you do not. Instead of saying OMG you picked the right door, he shows you a door with a sheep behind it. Which no matter what door you pick he WILL do this as a distraction. So the 3rd door is a moot door. It does not matter at all.

You are left with a 50% chance to win regardless if you switch doors or not. Because only 2 doors really matter, the 3rd door is always revieled as a sheep regardless if you picked the right door the first time or not.

Again all this will change if the host has no idea what is behind what door, and you just pick a door and he opens that door only. Then it is 1/3 chances to win.

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a goat (G2) , and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you switch, you lose.

These are the 3 scenarios and why the math came out to be 2/3 switching vs 1/3 not switching. Is there another scenario? let see what happen if you always stay:

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a goat (G2), and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you stay, you win.

Does this help?

It really depends on how you look at it i guess. Mathmatically you are correct. But logically you are not. The best way i can think to explain it is with the old math thing about if you only go half way each time you will never actually get there thing. Mathmatically in numbers that is correct, but in the real world that is not true.

Maybe that will help to explain it or not. Who knows. Doesnt really matter

What are you basing your "real world" example on since you obviously didn't do a test. I know for a fact you didn't do an experiment because you still believe the wrong answer.

You honestly think that if I give you 3 doors and you pick one and stick with it that you will win 50% of the time. That's even easier to test.

 

[AdamK47]

Originally posted by: chrisms
It is not 50/50. I had trouble too until reading this part...

"It may be easier to appreciate the result by considering a 100 doors instead of just three. In this case there are 99 doors with goats behind them and one door with a prize. The player picks a door. The game host then opens 98 of the other doors revealing 98 goats ? imagine the host starting with the first door and going down a line of 100 doors, opening each one but skipping over only the player's door and one other door. The host then offers the player the chance to switch to the only other unopened door. On average, in 99 out of 100 times the other door will contain the prize, as 99 out of 100 times the player first picked a door with a goat. A rational player should switch."

If the car was a GTO then you would have a 100% chance of getting a goat.

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: AdamK47

Originally posted by: chrisms
It is not 50/50. I had trouble too until reading this part...

"It may be easier to appreciate the result by considering a 100 doors instead of just three. In this case there are 99 doors with goats behind them and one door with a prize. The player picks a door. The game host then opens 98 of the other doors revealing 98 goats ? imagine the host starting with the first door and going down a line of 100 doors, opening each one but skipping over only the player's door and one other door. The host then offers the player the chance to switch to the only other unopened door. On average, in 99 out of 100 times the other door will contain the prize, as 99 out of 100 times the player first picked a door with a goat. A rational player should switch."

If the car was a GTO then you would have a 100% chance of getting a goat.

Maybe he likes the goat over GTO.....

 

[soulcougher73]

i will try to break this down in the "given" scenary of the host will always reviel a sheep on the 1st guess, and the host knows what is behind each door.

We will say Door #1 is the Car, and Door #2 and #3 are sheep. And this is only for arguement sake, it can be any combination.

Example #1: I pick door #1(car) on my first pick. The host knows its the car, but he shows me door #3(could replace door #2 here, it doesnt really matter) as a sheep (he has to). So now that door is out of the equation all together.

We have 2 door left. If i stay i win, if i switch i lose. 50%

Example #2: I pick door #2(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #3 (he has to). So now door #3 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

Given the way the game show works and he will always show a sheep regardless of what door you pick you always have 50% chance to win regardless if you switch or stay.

That help?

 

[Mo0o]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
i will try to break this down in the "given" scenary of the host will always reviel a sheep on the 1st guess, and the host knows what is behind each door.

We will say Door #1 is the Car, and Door #2 and #3 are sheep. And this is only for arguement sake, it can be any combination.

Example #1: I pick door #1(car) on my first pick. The host knows its the car, but he shows me door #3(could replace door #2 here, it doesnt really matter) as a sheep (he has to). So now that door is out of the equation all together.

We have 2 door left. If i stay i win, if i switch i lose. 50%

Example #2: I pick door #2(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #3 (he has to). So now door #3 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

Given the way the game show works and he will always show a sheep regardless of what door you pick you always have 50% chance to win regardless if you switch or stay.

That help?

you're forgetting when you choose door 3. so in actuality, there are 2 sitautions where swtiching pays and 1 where switching doesn't. and you still hvaen't addressed TheChort's real life experiment that supported our answer and not yours

 

[soulcougher73]

i didnt do door #3 because it would be the same as Example #2

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
i didnt do door #3 because it would be the same as Example #2

Which is exactly why the math favorite switching... and this is exactly what Monty Hall want his audience to think. "it doesn't matter. its 50-50"

 

[soulcougher73]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
i will try to break this down in the "given" scenary of the host will always reviel a sheep on the 1st guess, and the host knows what is behind each door.

We will say Door #1 is the Car, and Door #2 and #3 are sheep. And this is only for arguement sake, it can be any combination.

Example #1: I pick door #1(car) on my first pick. The host knows its the car, but he shows me door #3(could replace door #2 here, it doesnt really matter) as a sheep (he has to). So now that door is out of the equation all together.

We have 2 door left. If i stay i win, if i switch i lose. 50%

Example #2: I pick door #2(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #3 (he has to). So now door #3 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

Given the way the game show works and he will always show a sheep regardless of what door you pick you always have 50% chance to win regardless if you switch or stay.

That help?

Ok i will do door #3 just for you.

Example #3: I pick door #3(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #2 (he has to). So now door #2 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

See..same result as example #2

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
i will try to break this down in the "given" scenary of the host will always reviel a sheep on the 1st guess, and the host knows what is behind each door.

We will say Door #1 is the Car, and Door #2 and #3 are sheep. And this is only for arguement sake, it can be any combination.

Example #1: I pick door #1(car) on my first pick. The host knows its the car, but he shows me door #3(could replace door #2 here, it doesnt really matter) as a sheep (he has to). So now that door is out of the equation all together.

We have 2 door left. If i stay i win, if i switch i lose. 50%

Example #2: I pick door #2(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #3 (he has to). So now door #3 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

Given the way the game show works and he will always show a sheep regardless of what door you pick you always have 50% chance to win regardless if you switch or stay.

That help?

Ok i will do door #3 just for you.

Example #3: I pick door #3(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #2 (he has to). So now door #2 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

See..same result as example #2

The chance you pick a sheep at first is 2 out of 3...like you listed. So 2 out of 3 times, you are going to start with a sheep (door 2 or door 3). And if you end up switching when you get a sheep, you win. Which is 2 out of 3.

If you still don't believe us. Do the experiment with someone that you know....collect the data and see for yourself.

 

[AdamK47]

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: AdamK47

Originally posted by: chrisms
It is not 50/50. I had trouble too until reading this part...

"It may be easier to appreciate the result by considering a 100 doors instead of just three. In this case there are 99 doors with goats behind them and one door with a prize. The player picks a door. The game host then opens 98 of the other doors revealing 98 goats ? imagine the host starting with the first door and going down a line of 100 doors, opening each one but skipping over only the player's door and one other door. The host then offers the player the chance to switch to the only other unopened door. On average, in 99 out of 100 times the other door will contain the prize, as 99 out of 100 times the player first picked a door with a goat. A rational player should switch."

If the car was a GTO then you would have a 100% chance of getting a goat.

Maybe he likes the goat over GTO.....

Maybe he likes a goat over a goat? Come on man, make some sense.

 

[soulcougher73]

Not in this given scenary you dont. You will always start with a sheep no matter what door you pick. Its part of the game show.

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: AdamK47

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: AdamK47

Originally posted by: chrisms
It is not 50/50. I had trouble too until reading this part...

"It may be easier to appreciate the result by considering a 100 doors instead of just three. In this case there are 99 doors with goats behind them and one door with a prize. The player picks a door. The game host then opens 98 of the other doors revealing 98 goats ? imagine the host starting with the first door and going down a line of 100 doors, opening each one but skipping over only the player's door and one other door. The host then offers the player the chance to switch to the only other unopened door. On average, in 99 out of 100 times the other door will contain the prize, as 99 out of 100 times the player first picked a door with a goat. A rational player should switch."

If the car was a GTO then you would have a 100% chance of getting a goat.

Maybe he likes the goat over GTO.....

Maybe he likes a goat over a goat? Come on man, make some sense.

Goat is not nearly as high maintenance as the GTO. and what good a GTO does when you are starving!

 

[iversonyin]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
Not in this given scenary you dont. You will always start with a sheep no matter what door you pick. Its part of the game show.

If you still not a believer, just run the experiment as I said. No need to argue. When there are 2 goats and 1 car. Your chance of selecting a goat at first is always 2/3.

 

[Schfifty Five]

It's still easiest to think of it this way (and a few have already mentioned it):

1. There are 1,000,000 (one million) doors.
2. 1 door = car, hot babe, $1M (or whatever)
3. 999,999 doors = garbage (or sheep)
4. You pick one door, your chances of picking it right are 1/1,000,000
5. You have a 999,999/1,000,000 chance of NOT picking the car

So you have your 1 door, Monty (hosts) has his 999,999....DON'T YOU THINK THE CHANCES OF THE CAR BEING IN HIS 999,999 DOORS IS PRETTY DAMN GOOD? I do.

So he opens all his doors that he knows are trash doors except for one of them. I'm pretty sure your original door that you picked IS NOT THE CAR. So switch with monty!

Now do this but instead of 1M doors, use 999,999, then 999,998, etc, same procedure until you come down to 3 doors. It's all the same theory.

Hell, monty doesn't even have to open the doors, he could just ask "do you want to trade my 999,999 doors for your 1 door"? Obviously yes....THAT'S THE EXACT SAME THING EVEN AS IF HE OPENED THEM ALL EXCEPT ONE!!!

ZOMG!

 

[hoyaguru]

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
ive only read up to the 3rd page, but Malek is correct. No matter what door you choise the host will always reviel a sheep in one of the 2 doors you did not select as a distraction technique and for drama sake.

We will say for arguement sake your first pic was the door with the car. The host knows this but you do not. Instead of saying OMG you picked the right door, he shows you a door with a sheep behind it. Which no matter what door you pick he WILL do this as a distraction. So the 3rd door is a moot door. It does not matter at all.

You are left with a 50% chance to win regardless if you switch doors or not. Because only 2 doors really matter, the 3rd door is always revieled as a sheep regardless if you picked the right door the first time or not.

Again all this will change if the host has no idea what is behind what door, and you just pick a door and he opens that door only. Then it is 1/3 chances to win.

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a goat (G2) , and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you switch, you lose.

These are the 3 scenarios and why the math came out to be 2/3 switching vs 1/3 not switching. Is there another scenario? let see what happen if you always stay:

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a goat (G2), and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you stay, you win.

Does this help?

That's a great explanation. Now, can you explain Schrodinger's cat to me the same way? I've never understood how something can be dead and alive at the same time...

 

[iamaelephant]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
Not in this given scenary you dont. You will always start with a sheep no matter what door you pick. Its part of the game show.

Do the experiment or STFU noob, you're wrong.

 

[davestar]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
Not in this given scenary you dont. You will always start with a sheep no matter what door you pick. Its part of the game show.

how about this explanation, because apparently explanations 1 through 37 fell on deaf ears:

in your initial selection, you have a 1/3 chance of selecting the car and a 2/3 chance of getting a goat.

if you do indeed select a goat (66% chance), switching guarantees you the car (because the other goat has been revealed)

the only odds that matter are the 1/3 and 2/3 at the beginning of the game/experiment. there is no 1/2 chance at anything.

 

[Born2bwire]

Originally posted by: Malak
The reasoning behind the explanation is stupid and I will continue to dispute it. You are left with only 2 choices, the third choice is now moot and cannot be even considered in your decision. It is a 50/50 chance and there is no reason to switch nor to not switch. It comes down to chance. You have zero advantage.

The advantage for switching doors is proven.

It's a very trivial thing to write a program that tests the actual probabilities and the results agree with the fact that you should always change. The only caveat to this problem is whether or not the host has to give you the option to change. If he does, then you should always switch.

Look at this: Text

You could also write your own program if you truly need to satisfy yourself.

EDIT: iversonyn also has succinctly explained the odds as well.

 

[yowolabi]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
i will try to break this down in the "given" scenary of the host will always reviel a sheep on the 1st guess, and the host knows what is behind each door.

We will say Door #1 is the Car, and Door #2 and #3 are sheep. And this is only for arguement sake, it can be any combination.

Example #1: I pick door #1(car) on my first pick. The host knows its the car, but he shows me door #3(could replace door #2 here, it doesnt really matter) as a sheep (he has to). So now that door is out of the equation all together.

We have 2 door left. If i stay i win, if i switch i lose. 50%

Example #2: I pick door #2(sheep). The host knows this but shows me door #3 (he has to). So now door #3 is out of the equation all togehter.

We have 2 doors left. If i stay i lose, if i switch i win. 50%

Given the way the game show works and he will always show a sheep regardless of what door you pick you always have 50% chance to win regardless if you switch or stay.

That help?

Why don't you list every single possibility out instead of just saying "he could pick".....

Actually I see why.... because iversonyin already did and because that doesn't agree with the answer you want to keep.

Whatever happened to your argument about "real world"? Take 3 playing cards, one Ace and two Jacks, shuffle them and put them face down. Then choose one and hold on to it. What are the chances that you picked the Ace, 1/3 right? No matter what I flip over, your card will never magically change into an Ace.... so in the end you will only have the Ace 1/3 of the time.

So you continue holding that 1/3 chance Ace, and I look at the two remaining cards and I flip over a Jack. Your percentage has not changed of holding an Ace. It's a given that at least one of the other cards is a Jack, we always knew that. I simply showed you where it was. So the chances of you holding that Ace have still not changed. There is still a 1/3 chance of it being your card and a 2/3 chance of it being one of the other cards. What we know now is that if it is one of the other cards, it's the one that's still face-down. That means the 2/3 chance of it being not your card is the same as chance that it's the one that's still face down.

 

[RapidSnail]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
It really depends on how you look at it i guess. Mathmatically you are correct. But logically you are not. The best way i can think to explain it is with the old math thing about if you only go half way each time you will never actually get there thing. Mathmatically in numbers that is correct, but in the real world that is not true.

Maybe that will help to explain it or not. Who knows. Doesnt really matter

That "old math thing" is called Zeno's dichotomy paradox and is nothing more the philosophy. This is mathematics, not philosophy.

I will have my own solution by tonight when I return from the gym. Hopefully it will shed some light on the matter.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

The plane takes off

The pipe caves in under immense pressure

The toliet spins counter-clockwize

and


It doesn't matter which door you pick, you will always get the goat

 

[Slacker]

what if I actually want a sheep?

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
ive only read up to the 3rd page, but Malek is correct. No matter what door you choise the host will always reviel a sheep in one of the 2 doors you did not select as a distraction technique and for drama sake.

We will say for arguement sake your first pic was the door with the car. The host knows this but you do not. Instead of saying OMG you picked the right door, he shows you a door with a sheep behind it. Which no matter what door you pick he WILL do this as a distraction. So the 3rd door is a moot door. It does not matter at all.

You are left with a 50% chance to win regardless if you switch doors or not. Because only 2 doors really matter, the 3rd door is always revieled as a sheep regardless if you picked the right door the first time or not.

Again all this will change if the host has no idea what is behind what door, and you just pick a door and he opens that door only. Then it is 1/3 chances to win.

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a goat (G2) , and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you switch, you lose.

These are the 3 scenarios and why the math came out to be 2/3 switching vs 1/3 not switching. Is there another scenario? let see what happen if you always stay:

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a goat (G2), and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you stay, you win.

Does this help?

It really depends on how you look at it i guess. Mathmatically you are correct. But logically you are not. The best way i can think to explain it is with the old math thing about if you only go half way each time you will never actually get there thing. Mathmatically in numbers that is correct, but in the real world that is not true.

Maybe that will help to explain it or not. Who knows. Doesnt really matter

LOL this reminds me of that "Ownage of the Year" physics thread where one guy starts spouting about his answering being philosophically correct, but not mathematically correct. Same transparent backpeddling going on right here

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
Not in this given scenary you dont. You will always start with a sheep no matter what door you pick. Its part of the game show.

What scenary?

Maybe you meant scenario? :roll:

 

[dafatha00]

Originally posted by: soulcougher73

Originally posted by: iversonyin

Originally posted by: soulcougher73
ive only read up to the 3rd page, but Malek is correct. No matter what door you choise the host will always reviel a sheep in one of the 2 doors you did not select as a distraction technique and for drama sake.

We will say for arguement sake your first pic was the door with the car. The host knows this but you do not. Instead of saying OMG you picked the right door, he shows you a door with a sheep behind it. Which no matter what door you pick he WILL do this as a distraction. So the 3rd door is a moot door. It does not matter at all.

You are left with a 50% chance to win regardless if you switch doors or not. Because only 2 doors really matter, the 3rd door is always revieled as a sheep regardless if you picked the right door the first time or not.

Again all this will change if the host has no idea what is behind what door, and you just pick a door and he opens that door only. Then it is 1/3 chances to win.

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a goat (G2) , and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...if you switch, you win.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you switch, you lose.

These are the 3 scenarios and why the math came out to be 2/3 switching vs 1/3 not switching. Is there another scenario? let see what happen if you always stay:

If you picked a goat (G1), and the host shows you a goat (G2) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a goat (G2), and the host shows you a goat (G1) (he has to)...If you stay, you lose.

If you picked a car (C), and the host shows you a goat (G1 or G2 because he knows you have the car, so he can show either goat). If you stay, you win.

Does this help?

It really depends on how you look at it i guess. Mathmatically you are correct. But logically you are not. The best way i can think to explain it is with the old math thing about if you only go half way each time you will never actually get there thing. Mathmatically in numbers that is correct, but in the real world that is not true.

Maybe that will help to explain it or not. Who knows. Doesnt really matter

Sigh, because both you and Malak claim switching makes no difference, think about it this way.

Say you were invited to 100 game shows, in which each gives you a chance to win the car. Because switching makes no difference, you might as well stick with your original choice for each pick. You'll win approximately 33 cars out of the 100 games you play.

Now I get invited to 100 game shows as well and play the same game. I decide to switch every door that I pick. I have a 2/3rds chance of winning each time, because I have a 2 out of 3 chance of initially picking a door with a goat. Therefore, I'm going to win 66 cars out of all 100 games I play. I win more cars than you because I switching every time.

Now why would you stick with your original choice rather than switch?