Should the US defend Taiwan with military force?

[pauldun170]

Do you like cars?
Do you like refrigerators?
Do you like air conditioners?
Do you like heaters?
Do you like computers?

All of those things are made using parts from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Covid-19 showed us TSMC is the only supplier for those parts, and without them we cannot build or repair cars, refrigerators, ACs, heaters, computers, and etc.

So the question really is:
Do you want to defend Taiwan?
or
Do you want to live in abject poverty while groveling pathetically before his radiance Winnie the Pooh? Begging for your children sustenance as your pain racked flea bitten yellow belly excuse of an existence withers away?


oh, and fyi, Winnie the Pooh's standard policy is going to be to sterilize your cowardly ass:
https://www.google.com/search?q=chinese+genocide+sterilzation
So the options really are Defend Taiwan or bend over and let Winne the Pooh snip your balls off.

Sorry to steal your thunder

Breakingviews - TSMC's global expansion will chip away at its edge

The world’s biggest chipmaker is broadening its horizons. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing agreed to build a $7 billion plant in Japan with Sony , and it has similar plans to do more elsewhere. Diversifying production provides a helpful geopolitical hedge, but also makes its financial edge...

www.reuters.com

Inside TSMC, the Taiwanese chipmaking giant that's building a new plant in Phoenix

Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion to ramp up production during the chip shortage. Its Phoenix plant will bring chip manufacturing back to the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

The answer to addressing the chip issue is not playing mercenary, its returning chip making to the United States. and securing the supply lines to insure that we have capacity.
TSMC is not stupid and they are looking beyond Taiwan. Maybe if we weren't so damn stupid and focusing on what country we should bomb next is to instead focus on restoring our own cap[ability to be a leading manufacture of durable goods and components.

 

[sdifox]

Sorry to steal your thunder

Breakingviews - TSMC's global expansion will chip away at its edge

The world’s biggest chipmaker is broadening its horizons. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing agreed to build a $7 billion plant in Japan with Sony , and it has similar plans to do more elsewhere. Diversifying production provides a helpful geopolitical hedge, but also makes its financial edge...

www.reuters.com

Inside TSMC, the Taiwanese chipmaking giant that's building a new plant in Phoenix

Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion to ramp up production during the chip shortage. Its Phoenix plant will bring chip manufacturing back to the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

The answer to addressing the chip issue is not playing mercenary, its returning chip making to the United States. and securing the supply lines to insure that we have capacity.

TSMC is not stupid and they are looking beyond Taiwan. Maybe if we weren't so damn stupid and focusing on what country we should bomb next is to instead focus on restoring our own cap[ability to be a leading manufacture of durable goods and components.

Should have thought of that before letting Intel screw everyone over.


Oops wrong quote, fixed

 

[Torn Mind]

I think the dispute between China and Taiwan should be settled between those two countries and we should not use force to defend Taiwan. While I do not support the communist regime of China, I also do not think that we need to get involved militarily in the dispute between the two nations on the other side of the world.

Recently the US, UK and Australia formed a security alliance covering the Asia Pacific region. So long as that force is used for freedom of navigation to keep trade lanes open, that would make sense. But going to war with China over Taiwan does not seem like something we should do. Support for Taiwan should be limited to humanitarian and political support.

Both Republicans and Democrats have supported the democracy in Taiwan including the use of force to defend it, but I think that is going too far.

Sounds like a pretty idealist approach.

You probably didn't think to translate it into what actually happens on the ground and what gets committed to paper.

We've got a small island with a smaller population and less military force having to "deal" with a much bigger economy and resource grubbing country(they've building up their supply chain of Africa's natural resources and "loan slavery"). The bigger country also has extended it money and power and has bought many elite member of elite organizations such as the WHO or UN so much so that Taiwan is not "officially" recognized as a country by many nations.

The bigger country also has no regard for rules if no retribution is threatened.

If it's based on political sway and sheer resources, non-intervention would result in a rapid and swift conquering of Taiwan, and a subsequent rapid elimination of dissidents via execution of opposition or torture into compliance.

When it comes to matters of the physical, including nation sovereignty, the ones with the best assets and utilization of those assets will win.

It seems that the American psyche still fetishizes isolationism, regardless of party affiliation. It's just that it gets buried but until it manifests when crap hits the fans.

 

[Leeea]

Sorry to steal your thunder

Spoiler: shorten it up

Breakingviews - TSMC's global expansion will chip away at its edge

The world’s biggest chipmaker is broadening its horizons. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing agreed to build a $7 billion plant in Japan with Sony , and it has similar plans to do more elsewhere. Diversifying production provides a helpful geopolitical hedge, but also makes its financial edge...

www.reuters.com

Inside TSMC, the Taiwanese chipmaking giant that's building a new plant in Phoenix

Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion to ramp up production during the chip shortage. Its Phoenix plant will bring chip manufacturing back to the U.S.

www.cnbc.com

The answer to addressing the chip issue is not playing mercenary, its returning chip making to the United States. and securing the supply lines to insure that we have capacity.
TSMC is not stupid and they are looking beyond Taiwan. Maybe if we weren't so damn stupid and focusing on what country we should bomb next is to instead focus on restoring our own cap[ability to be a leading manufacture of durable goods and components.

Yep, in two decades when they get all those plants built the conversation might be different.

But we are not talking about two decades from now. We are talking about right NOW.

 

[Leeea]

Im not saying I would like to see Taiwan disappear, that benefits no one. I would also like to see TSMC diversify production into America so as to keep a multi channel supply chain:

Spoiler: shorten it up

Apple supplier TSMC to build a $12 billion chip factory in the U.S.

TSMC's decision to build a new U.S. chip plant comes as President Donald Trump's administration continues to scrutinize the global technology supply chain upon which American firms rely on.

www.cnbc.com

EXCLUSIVE TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (2330.TW) is weighing plans to pump tens of billions of dollars more into cutting-edge chip factories in the U.S. state of Arizona than it had previously disclosed, but is cool on prospects for an advanced European plant, people familiar with the matter told...

www.reuters.com

TSMC considering first chip packaging plant in US

Facility to handle increasingly important step in semiconductor manufacturing

asia.nikkei.com

Those factories are undoubtable great.

But, those factories are going to take decades to get running at full capacity. A great thing for the future.

But, we are not talking about the future, we are talking about right NOW.


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The cynical side of me cannot help but point out TSMC is not moving enough production out of Taiwan to actually make Taiwan's facilities unnecessary. Instead they are moving out just enough so we will be able to make all the missiles needed to fight China.

The diversification of TSMC is not going to get your AC fixed if China takes Taiwan. It is just enough to get a war economy running. We are still looking at a good deal of suffering and pain. But it will be nothing compared to what the Chinese civilian population would have to suffer once a Naval blockade is implemented.


The only way to win is to not have a war at all. The problem is China's leader is running with the mantra "Make China Great Again" ( https://www.google.com/search?q=make+china+great+again ). We have seen this movie before.


Our only chance to avoid war is through aggressive display of excessive military power and the willingness to use it.

 

[cytg111]

Those factories are undoubtable great.

But, those factories are going to take decades to get running at full capacity. A great thing for the future.

But, we are not talking about the future, we are talking about right NOW.


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The cynical side of me cannot help but point out TSMC is not moving enough production out of Taiwan to actually make Taiwan's facilities unnecessary. Instead they are moving out just enough so we will be able to make all the missiles needed to fight China.

The diversification of TSMC is not going to get your AC fixed if China takes Taiwan. It is just enough to get a war economy running. We are still looking at a good deal of suffering and pain. But it will be nothing compared to what the Chinese civilian population would have to suffer once a Naval blockade is implemented.


The only way to win is to not have a war at all. The problem is China's leader is running with the mantra "Make China Great Again" ( https://www.google.com/search?q=make+china+great+again ). We have seen this movie before.


Our only chance to avoid war is through aggressive display of excessive military power and the willingness to use it.

God damn sad state of affairs, but yea. Shiit conflict is brewing again.

Wonder what that’ll do to my portfolio. Time to shift towards kinetic stocks?

 

[Ajay]

God damn sad state of affairs, but yea. Shiit conflict is brewing again.

Well, it would help if China would stop yapping about Taiwan belonging to the PRC over and over and over again. And, sending fighters and bombers into Taiwan's IFF zone, over and over and over again. They need to decide, do they want stable relations with the western world or not (and some Asian nations, particularly Japan). Ball's in the court and they keep moving it forward as if we are going to just sit there and let them dribble on past us.

Wonder what that’ll do to my portfolio. Time to shift towards kinetic stocks?

Well, IIRC, with DT as president, defense spending went up something like $200B, so defense stocks might make a good pick, but you are late to the party.

 

[rommelrommel]

Well, it would help if China would stop yapping about Taiwan belonging to the PRC over and over and over again. And, sending fighters and bombers into Taiwan's IFF zone, over and over and over again. They need to decide, do they want stable relations with the western world or not (and some Asian nations, particularly Japan). Ball's in the court and they keep moving it forward as if we are going to just sit there and let them dribble on past us.

They aren't going to stop. This hard line nationalism works too well for domestic purposes. The narrative of China being a great historical power unjustly humiliated by the west restoring itself is an easy sell and it justifies a lot. They don't want stable relationships with Japan, Taiwan, and India.

 

[Ajay]

I keep forgetting how much of a geopolitical threat this belligerence is to Japan. It has already been mentioned elsewhere in this thread. I worry that this is going to get worse as China's internal problems mount. There is so often the tendency to redirect internal dissatisfaction towards an external matter of national pride. I really don't know how we come to some sort of diplomatic solution to this, for now, we just have to buy time till some opportunity presents itself if we are to avoid conflict.

 

[Ajay]

They aren't going to stop. This hard line nationalism works too well for domestic purposes. The narrative of China being a great historical power unjustly humiliated by the west restoring itself is an easy sell and it justifies a lot. They don't want stable relationships with Japan, Taiwan, and India.

LOL! We must have been typing at the same time. I agree.

 

[Denly]

A few thoughts. CCP won't be able to take Taiwan without leveling it and CCP can not afford to level Taiwan. It is weird we have this talk but don't have the balls to call Taiwan a country. Nuclear powers will not engage with one another in a full scale war just ask Crimea and the reef island CCP took.

I just don't see any shape or form CCP took Taiwan in my lifetime.

 

[pauldun170]

At the very least, this thread is driving me to learn more about Taiwan
Sharing some toilet reading material. Casual stuff.

The Island Claims: Taiwan versus the ROC

Entangling Taiwan in the ROCâs problematic claims hurts Taiwan

medium.com

 

[Ajay]

At the very least, this thread is driving me to learn more about Taiwan
Sharing some toilet reading material. Casual stuff.

The Island Claims: Taiwan versus the ROC

Entangling Taiwan in the ROCâs problematic claims hurts Taiwan

medium.com

Thanks for sharing. If you follow the links in the article, you get a bit more of the bigger picture. The 10,000 ft view of geopolitics is all we usually see. The minutia spread across history adds up to a very complicated picture. Being human, our governments will make choice based on the more pressing issues in current time, often with fallout, some of which can reasonably predicted by subject matter experts, but ignored for the sake of short term gain. WRT Taiwan, the US has been more careful than usual - frustrating those who would like to see this 'fledgling' democracy flourish as a sovereign nation (Taiwan is generally proceeding in the right direction here). In the simplest terms, it's always just such a complicated mess.

 

[Ajay]

Nuclear powers will not engage with one another in a full scale war

That is hasn't happened, doesn't mean it won't. Nobody expected we would do a repeat of WWI, and yet, these seeds of WWII were sown in the outcome of WWI. It took just one charismatic nationalist nut and a few loyal lieutenants to put the needle on the record that replay that horrible war (with even more horrible bonus content).

 

[hal2kilo]

I agree completely. When Nixon helped to normalize relations with China the hope was trade would bring about a true democratic movement in China. But what we wound up with was an even stronger regime with more power than ever. And a mockery of democracy ("Chinese Democracy") that allows a communist party leader to reign for as long as desired:

China Removes Presidential Term Limits, Enabling Xi Jinping To Rule Indefinitely

China's President Xi Jinping has consolidated power to levels not seen in decades. The country's rubber-stamp legislature approved the constitutional change with virtually no opposition.

www.npr.org

As mentioned several times in this thread, I am not a fan of military action. I am more dovish than hawkish, especially as I get older. The last time I supported military intervention was the use of force to remove Saddam Hussien from Kuwait. I also supported limited action against the Taliban after 9-11 to root out the terrorist bases and capture OBL, not the disastrous policy of Nation Building in a region that has never recognized itself as a unified body, but a collection of tribes.

We need to ween ourselves from China.

Most of our brainiac "foundations" seem to think that communism and rampant capitalism were incompatible. Ha, ha.....

 

[Ajay]

Most of our brainiac "foundations" seem to think that communism and rampant capitalism were incompatible. Ha, ha.....

I'm a bit confused by this comment. They are incompatible. Hence the current crackdown on Chinese billionaires, tech companies, etc. Also, crushing debt due to excessive speculation and corruption in real-estate International banks are start to say 'no-thanks' wrt to loaning money to Chinese companies. Add to this the sundry persecution of Muslims, Christians, Hindus and every other religion or anything else not of Han-Chinese cultural lineage. The Billions and Billions of dollars being thrown at their own MIC - especially in air power and the Navy; always important for dictatorial states of one fashion or another. And, the West is starting to push back against it's own mistake renting a manufacturing base from China. This experiment is on the door-step of failing - so expect even more draconian measures in the future. Though I pray I'm wrong.

 

[hal2kilo]

I'm a bit confused by this comment. They are incompatible. Hence the current crackdown on Chinese billionaires, tech companies, etc. Also, crushing debt due to excessive speculation and corruption in real-estate International banks are start to say 'no-thanks' wrt to loaning money to Chinese companies. Add to this the sundry persecution of Muslims, Christians, Hindus and every other religion or anything else not of Han-Chinese cultural lineage. The Billions and Billions of dollars being thrown at their own MIC - especially in air power and the Navy; always important for dictatorial states of one fashion or another. And, the West is starting to push back against it's own mistake renting a manufacturing base from China. This experiment is on the door-step of failing - so expect even more draconian measures in the future. Though I pray I'm wrong.

So how has China grown so big.

 

[Ajay]

So how has China grown so big.

Huge buckets of western money plus huge borrowing. It's tough to pin down how much - numbers from the CCP are always suspect.

 

[akugami]

Can't re-unify if you were never unified to begin with. Reminder: the CCP has never ruled the island of Taiwan. But after how the CCP treats Uighurs, Falun Gong and people in Hong Kong, you think Taipei has to do anything to convince people (who identify overwhelmingly as Taiwanese) that being invaded by an authoritarian regime is bad?

Hahaha oh dear. I don't think I can read any of your posts the same ever again.

Just to refute some of what you said, Taiwan was a territory of the Qing Dynasty from 1683 to 1887. So there is some legal basis and argument from China that Taiwan belongs to it. China ceded Taiwan to Japan after the Qing Dynasty lost to Japan in the First Sino-Japanese War. There's also the Chinese civil war, where the Republic of China lost to the Chines Communist Party, with the RoC leadership fleeing to Taiwan.

The founder of Falun Gong, Li Hongzhi, claimed to be able to perform miracles like, healing illnesses, and that aliens introduced science to the world to control humans and shit. The Epoch Times, a Falun Gong affiliated multimedia corporation, spreads QAnon conspiracy theories and anti-vaccine misinformation. The Epoch Times were so bad, even Facebook banned their ads. And Facebook will take money from anyone. They're a cult. Not that I condone how the members are treated by the Chinese government. Everyone deserves to be treated humanely.

While I am of Chinese descent, I was not born in China, am not a Chinese citizen in any way shape or form, nor have I spent any significant time there.

I voted not sure. It's a hugely complicated issue, and there is some validity to China's claim on Taiwan. But I'm not sure that Taiwan unifying with China is good for the world. Hong Kong has proven that if such unification were to occur, it's only a matter of time before China starts showing its claws.

And don't kid yourself. If China wanted to invade Taiwan, it will win. There will be political and economical repercussions, but China will win. The only reason China has not done so is because the gains are not worth the losses, at least not at the moment. As soon as the scale tilts the other way, you bet your ass China is going in.

China is playing the long game. They have set up plans for making ties to developing areas like South America and Africa, as well as strengthening ties to North America and Europe. Do not underestimate China's plans for the long game. The US needed to prepare for China 20 years ago. Not now. Not yesterday, but 20 years ago.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Inside the mind of Xi Jinping:

Worth a watch.

He was the son of a powerful politician and enjoyed a privileged lifestyle.

Then Mao Zedong decided under new reforms ("The Cultural Revolution") that his father was a traitor who must be punished. He was stripped of all possessions and power and he and his wife were exiled and sentenced to hard labor. As a result of all their familiy's fall from grace, Xi Jinping's sister killed herself.

Instead of seeking revenge against the Revolution, Xi embraced it rising through the ranks and eventually gaining power himself.

 

[pmv]

Inside the mind of Xi Jinping:

Worth a watch.

He was the son of a powerful politician and enjoyed a privileged lifestyle.

Then Mao Zedong decided under new reforms ("The Cultural Revolution") that his father was a traitor who must be punished. He was stripped of all possessions and power and he and his wife were exiled and sentenced to hard labor. As a result of all their familiy's fall from grace, Xi Jinping's sister killed herself.

Instead of seeking revenge against the Revolution, Xi embraced it rising through the ranks and eventually gaining power himself.

I don't really claim to understand Chinese politics. Not just the specific details of China, but also the larger political processes and principles that its evolution embodies.

But on one level, it seems to me that Xi represents the exact triumph of the bureaucracy that Mao was trying to avert when he launched the Cultural revolution. Mao's 'cure' or 'prevention' turned out to be worse than the disease, certainly from a domestic Chinese perspective. But seems as if he did have an accurate assessment of what the CCP bureaucracy was otherwise likely to evolve into.

The bigger problem seems to me to be that, globally, nationalism has turned out to be a far more potent and resiliant force than leftists or liberals or free-marketers alike really expected.

 

[Vic]

Current US policy has basically f'ed China, which I approve of. So it's no surprise that the OP has fallen prey to desperate CCP propaganda that they're going to invade Taiwan.

 

[rmacd02]

I am going to start this post admitting ignorance. It seems to me that if a country cedes an island in perpetuity, that country should never be able to lay claim to said island. Is there something in diplo-speak that changes this?

 

[sdifox]

I am going to start this post admitting ignorance. It seems to me that if a country cedes an island in perpetuity, that country should never be able to lay claim to said island. Is there something in diplo-speak that changes this?

Part of reparation for WWII was the return of Taiwan to Republic of China.

Cairo Conference - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

.

This is still in effect

Taiwan Relations Act - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

My understanding is that Taiwan is not a country and never has been. At least not in the eyes of the UN and other global bodies.

Former Chinese leaders fled the mainland and holed up on the island offshore in a form of self exile. I'm not sure why it wasn't taken then, but if it had been, there would be no discussion of it now. I'm guessing it's all about money though. It probably wasn't worth bothering with back then, but it is now considering the manufacturing.

I see no reason why it isn't considered part of China.