Six Month Countdown

[iRONic]

I predict Republicans will win every race and even add to their Supreme Court majority through the magic of gothuevos diaper changes.

Given the amount of changes to date…

That's fucking gross!

 

[feralkid]

I predict Republicans will win every race and even add to their Supreme Court majority through the magic of gothuevos diaper changes.

Also, a Republican Mare will win next year's Triple Crown.

 

[cytg111]

Interesting trend.

View attachment 100682

I mean, that doesnt look *that* good...

 

[gothuevos]

re: Trenchfoot's post

Well said, and it says a ton about the good folk of this land.

There are two (well, with variations, more) completely incompatible perceived realities in this country, driven by utter bullshit on social media and biased "news" of choice influencing the thought processes and beliefs of millions. I'll leave it to the reader to decide whose reality is actually real.

Sounds like balkanization is in our future.

 

[Pens1566]

Also, a Republican Mare will win next year's Triple Crown.

The baseball kind, or the "animal that shits uncontrollably while walking along" kind?

 

[iRONic]

I'd like to see the MAGA Triple Crown of Incarceration;

Tangerine terrorist
Navarro
Bannon

 

[Stokely]

Sounds like balkanization is in our future.

I mean, we sorta already are culturally. I decided a few years ago to limit my exposure to maga types, and don't get into any political "discussions" with the ones I can't avoid. And by "discussion" I mean "play the part of a duck in a shooting gallery", because all they ever want to do is rant and score on a supposed bleeding heart lib. Working from home, and working for a company that doesn't put up with political badgering, helps.

I can't see how any actual civil war/splitting up could ever happen considering how interwoven businesses, and families, are across states. It would cost them gazillions of dollars to actually make it happen, so they won't push for it. Occasionally Texas will whine about how they are splitting off, go ahead and do it if you want. Sure I'd have to move north if the Confederacy formed again, but I'm planning on that anyway.

 

[APU_Fusion]

Sounds like balkanization is in our future.

Sounds like the balkanization of your underwear more like

 

[Roger Wilco]

I mean, that doesnt look *that* good...

Too early to tell. We’ll see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800517399906857359

 

[WelshBloke]

Too early to tell. We’ll see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800517399906857359

Considering what an incompetent arse Trump is (there's a lot wrong with the guy, I'm not listing it all) it's insane that it's that close!

 

[K1052]

Considering what an incompetent arse Trump is (there's a lot wrong with the guy, I'm not listing it all) it's insane that it's that close!

We'll see what direction and size the polling error is in this year. They have not been covering themselves in glory thus far.

 

[WelshBloke]

We'll see what direction and size the polling error is in this year. They have not been covering themselves in glory thus far.

Yeah but it should be something like 60 to 40!
Rishi Sunak is utterly wet as a PM but he's objectively better than Trump in about every way (don't take that as an endorsement of Sunak, it's just that the bar is low with Trump) and it's 44 to 23 against him here! (And I still have nightmares about him managing to win!)

 

[gothuevos]

We'll see what direction and size the polling error is in this year. They have not been covering themselves in glory thus far.

Saw this quote on Twitter and thought it captured this moment in history well:

Either there's a problem with the polls, or a problem with Americans. Not both.

 

[zinfamous]

Saw this quote on Twitter and thought it captured this moment in history well:

Either there's a problem with the polls, or a problem with Americans. Not both.

It is both: there is clearly a problem with Americans, and also a continuous problem with the polls is that they have generally been incapable of keeping track with changes in technology and demographic trends with the way that the majority of people participate in and respond to polls.

 

[manly]

Yeah but it should be something like 60 to 40!
Rishi Sunak is utterly wet as a PM but he's objectively better than Trump in about every way (don't take that as an endorsement of Sunak, it's just that the bar is low with Trump) and it's 44 to 23 against him here! (And I still have nightmares about him managing to win!)

So what you're saying is that Muricans are a lot dumber than the Brits. 🤣


538 releases their continuously-updating forecast, it's a coin-flip:

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Dave_5k]

Too early to tell. We’ll see.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1800517399906857359

But popular vote doesn't win the election. Given the way states are split right now, Biden (or any Democrat) needs at least a +3, and likely more, national margin for a reasonable chance of winning the election. If this 0 point national vote margin were to hold through to election, that is a guaranteed Trump win - by a quite large electoral vote margin. Biden barely squeaked by in 2020 - with a +4.5% national vote margin.

 

[WelshBloke]

So what you're saying is that Muricans are a lot dumber than the Brits. 🤣


538 releases their continuously-updating forecast, it's a coin-flip:

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Joe Biden’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I mean we voted for Brexit and Boris Johnson so I'm going to cast no aspersions!

 

[Roger Wilco]

But popular vote doesn't win the election. Given the way states are split right now, Biden (or any Democrat) needs at least a +3, and likely more, national margin for a reasonable chance of winning the election. If this 0 point national vote margin were to hold through to election, that is a guaranteed Trump win - by a quite large electoral vote margin. Biden barely squeaked by in 2020 - with a +4.5% national vote margin.

Yes, if polls are still an accurate indicator, Biden’s polling needs to improve quite a bit. I am more just interested to see if this trend continues.

 

[fskimospy]

Sounds like balkanization is in our future.

How does your diaper feel that 538 has Biden as a modest favorite?

 

[Pens1566]

Polling has been absolutely AWFUL in every meaningful election since the '20 general. Each important special, the '22 mid-terms ... they were all wrong by several points in the +R direction.

 

[gothuevos]

How does your diaper feel that 538 has Biden as a modest favorite?

So Biden within the MOE in battleground states against a convicted felon?

Not the flex you think it is, my friend.

 

[fskimospy]

So Biden within the MOE in battleground states against a convicted felon?

Not the flex you think it is, my friend.

There is no flex here, you just said that Biden was doomed.

Does this change your mind at all? Have you reconsidered anything after being wrong over and over and over?

All I’m asking is considering that you’re always wrong and it looks like you might be wrong again if you’ve taken a minute to wonder why.

 

[trenchfoot]

So Biden within the MOE in battleground states against a convicted felon?

Not the flex you think it is, my friend.

Biden being within the MOE in those states has much more to do with the total lack of morals, ethics and the absence of conscience of his supporters that are more than willing to escape from the reality of Trump's disastrous handling of the nation's welfare, it's security and it's secrets, all of which were mere commodities for him to make a literal killing from.