Now that Trump has won riding on his lofty, yet incredibly vague promises to make America great, lets predict where we stand in 4 years. He has tapped into the despair felt in rusted out towns across the heartland, channeling their misplaced anger into an election victory, and is now expected to deliver something that tangibly makes their lives better. Now when I say misplaced, what I mean is that these people have real hardship that the country must not ignore, yet as is human nature that anger born out of hopelessness has manifested itself in many undesirable ways, and yes I mean a hefty dose of racism and xenophobia. Trump making a splashy show of kicking out illegals or limiting immigration might feel good to them, but it wont do a thing to make their lives better. He has to address the underlying need of these people, which is jobs and opportunity.
My Predictions:
1. No great wall is going to be built, but rather sections of one are going to be built, or existing fences replaced with walls in order to capture the media's attention for a bit and placate his supporters. Congress wont fund a full wall.
2. Republicans, the so called party of fiscal responsibility, are going to double or triple the federal deficit. Traditional Republicans want tax cuts and increased military spending. Trump wants infrastructure which will bring the dems onboard. They'll claim as usual that economic growth will offset the tax cuts despite the dire projections from the CBO.
3. Obamacare is going to be around more than a year into his presidency. Kicking tens of millions of people off insurance roles, many of those being people who voted for him, is not going to make for good politics. You might see Republican held states suddenly wish to adopt the medicaid expansion, as it will now be Trumpcare instead of Obamacare, which suddenly makes it OK.
4. There will be no tax cuts on the rich. Quite the opposite I can foresee Trump increasing taxes on the rich to fund some of his initiatives. The people that elected Trump are not interested in the traditional Republican orthodoxy. I imagine this is about to come as a shock to many Republicans who are suddenly going to pretend that Trump is one of them.
My Hope:
Trump is not a conservative or a Republican, which gives me hope. He has now succeeded in fracturing both parties to pieces, which will allow him to reassemble whatever pieces he wants into a governing coalition. If traditional Republicans, who are a product of the old donor class, suddenly think this is a mandate for them, I think they will have badly misread this election. He is in a position to shed the social conservative baggage that he carried to get where he is at, and do something historic, because I think Republicans are terrified to stand against him, and Democrats are eager to break through the gridlock and get something done, even if they have to compromise on some social or immigration issues. He could propose medicare for all in his first 100 days as an Obamacare alternative, and easily assemble the votes to make it happen, which would make a huge difference in the lives of many of his voters. He could propose massive debt financed infrastructure spending, which democrats would gleefully get on board with, and Republicans would be afraid to stand against him. He could propose middle class tax cuts or increased EITC financed by tax increases on the rich, and Republicans would have to swallow it.
Trump might be incredibly flawed, but his huge ego combined with his go it alone not give a shit way of doing things presents a unique opportunity, as he does undoubtedly want to be the best president ever. Governing in a way that leaves half the country hating him would not serve that goal.
My Predictions:
1. No great wall is going to be built, but rather sections of one are going to be built, or existing fences replaced with walls in order to capture the media's attention for a bit and placate his supporters. Congress wont fund a full wall.
2. Republicans, the so called party of fiscal responsibility, are going to double or triple the federal deficit. Traditional Republicans want tax cuts and increased military spending. Trump wants infrastructure which will bring the dems onboard. They'll claim as usual that economic growth will offset the tax cuts despite the dire projections from the CBO.
3. Obamacare is going to be around more than a year into his presidency. Kicking tens of millions of people off insurance roles, many of those being people who voted for him, is not going to make for good politics. You might see Republican held states suddenly wish to adopt the medicaid expansion, as it will now be Trumpcare instead of Obamacare, which suddenly makes it OK.
4. There will be no tax cuts on the rich. Quite the opposite I can foresee Trump increasing taxes on the rich to fund some of his initiatives. The people that elected Trump are not interested in the traditional Republican orthodoxy. I imagine this is about to come as a shock to many Republicans who are suddenly going to pretend that Trump is one of them.
My Hope:
Trump is not a conservative or a Republican, which gives me hope. He has now succeeded in fracturing both parties to pieces, which will allow him to reassemble whatever pieces he wants into a governing coalition. If traditional Republicans, who are a product of the old donor class, suddenly think this is a mandate for them, I think they will have badly misread this election. He is in a position to shed the social conservative baggage that he carried to get where he is at, and do something historic, because I think Republicans are terrified to stand against him, and Democrats are eager to break through the gridlock and get something done, even if they have to compromise on some social or immigration issues. He could propose medicare for all in his first 100 days as an Obamacare alternative, and easily assemble the votes to make it happen, which would make a huge difference in the lives of many of his voters. He could propose massive debt financed infrastructure spending, which democrats would gleefully get on board with, and Republicans would be afraid to stand against him. He could propose middle class tax cuts or increased EITC financed by tax increases on the rich, and Republicans would have to swallow it.
Trump might be incredibly flawed, but his huge ego combined with his go it alone not give a shit way of doing things presents a unique opportunity, as he does undoubtedly want to be the best president ever. Governing in a way that leaves half the country hating him would not serve that goal.