So why did Donald Trump win? Flipside to the Clinton/lose thread

[glenn1]

Going to try to begin the introspection now. Particularly if you were a Clinton voter, what do you think the top things that motivated folks to vote for Trump? Be honest and give them the same credit you'd want them to give you for purity of motives instead of just unleashing with a stream of "they're just misogynists and racists, all 59+ million of them."

http://waitbutwhy.com/2016/11/its-going-to-be-okay.html

 

[vi edit]

I think MN, MI, WI, and PA tell everything. He was able to take disillusioned blue collar democrats and get them to vote Republican. Hillary just assumed she had those states and gave them no attention. She swung above her weight with college educated whites but threw no bones to the uneducated through the rust belt. That cost her the election.

I do think that there were some protest votes in the form of no-vote at all in several states where Dem's lost votes by people not going down ballot with her starting at the top. Part of that I'm sure is due to the Bernie situation. Part of due to the fact that she just couldn't appeal to younger voters or other demographics that supported Obama the last two elections.

 

[hal2kilo]

I have no idea, other than a majority thought Clinton sucked more than Trump.

 

[Svnla]

Many reasons but I think the main one is blue collared folks are mad as hell. They feel they are stuck and the employment with good salary/benefits ship is long gone.

 

[Gryz]

He could promise voters anything he liked, and because he has no political history, people just believe he can back it up. Or that maybe he might be able to achieve all of his promises.

If he had had any political history, even a small one, voters would have known that Trump can not do more than other politicians. He is not gonna accomplish even 5% of what he is promising. Obama had the Republican Congress and Senate against him. Trump will both have the Democrats *and* the Republicans against him. Trump is not part of the Republican Party. He has no contacts there, he has nobody loyal to him, he is basically alone. He won't be able to do anything, unless the same-old, same-old Republican career-politicians tell him they will allow it.

You are up for 4 years of Republican government. And it will have nothing to do with what Trunp wants or promised.

And on top of that, you'll have a SCotUS filled with 6 or 7 utter-retard medieval religious-crazy nutcases for judges.

I think 4 years from now, people can make a good case against James Comey. For treason. Off with his head. He deserves it.

 

[UglyCasanova]

People want change. They voted Trump to disrupt the status quo in Washington, that really is the crux of it. Not racism, not sexism, not Islamophobia (although of the three that one would hold the most water). They are sick of politicians and it really is as simple as that.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Disenfranchisement seems like the obvious answer. Regardless of whether it is why she lost, or he won. Too many Americans feel disenfranchised, and Trump benefited from it. Clinton screwed over way too many democrats during the primaries. Meanwhile president elect Trump was the only candidate not neck deep in the political sewage. W ran on the not a beltway boy theme, Obama's political newness seemed to benefit him as well. It appears to be the most important factor in deciding for many voters; that the candidate not be part of the political machine in D.C.

 

[UglyCasanova]

He could promise voters anything he liked, and because he has no political history, people just believe he can back it up. Or that maybe he might be able to achieve all of his promises.

If he had had any political history, even a small one, voters would have known that Trump can not do more than other politicians. He is not gonna accomplish even 5% of what he is promising. Obama had the Republican Congress and Senate against him. Trump will both have the Democrats *and* the Republicans against him. Trump is not part of the Republican Party. He has no contacts there, he has nobody loyal to him, he is basically alone. He won't be able to do anything, unless the same-old, same-old Republican career-politicians tell him they will allow it.

No one voted for Trump based on his policies. They didn't vote for him to build a wall, infrastructure, or anything else. He was voted in to drain the swamp as he says. Our government and the powers that be has become far too corrupt and this was simply a vote against that.

 

[herm0016]

I agree with casanova. this is all a big screw you to the establishment. real revolution starts with an extremest to unite the people.

 

[Jaskalas]

Trickle down has hurt so many people... they are desperate to rebel. Smash the system.
Sander's strength is the same underlying current that saw Clinton as an enemy and helped motivate Trump voters.
Assuming Trump fails to wave a magic wand, voting is only going to be more volatile next time.

 

[Gryz]

Our government and the powers that be has become far too corrupt and this was simply a vote against that.

Sure, "a vote against that".
But what will he achieve in that respect ?
Nothing. Because he'll be depending on the Republican Party. The career-politicians of the Republican Party are not gonna let Trump change anything. If Trump would have held some politicical office anywhere, people would have seen and known that one guy can not change anything. But because he had no history, voters can make themselves believe anything they want.

 

[vi edit]

Sure, "a vote against that".
But what will he achieve in that respect ?
Nothing. Because he'll be depending on the Republican Party. The career-politicians of the Republican Party are not gonna let Trump change anything. If Trump would have held some politicical office anywhere, people would have seen and known that one guy can not change anything. But because he had no history, voters can make themselves believe anything they want.

Next 2-4 years will be interesting. GOP have keys to the entire kingdom. If they *STILL* fail to get anything done due to internal party division then what are voters to do? Talk about feeling like you are hopeless.

 

[UglyCasanova]

Sure, "a vote against that".
But what will he achieve in that respect ?
Nothing. Because he'll be depending on the Republican Party. The career-politicians of the Republican Party are not gonna let Trump change anything. If Trump would have held some politicical office anywhere, people would have seen and known that one guy can not change anything. But because he had no history, voters can make themselves believe anything they want.

Better to try and fail than to not try at all.

 

[fskimospy]

There was very low turnout, and low turnout generally helps Republicans. I mean despite the US population growing by about 20 million people Trump while winning looks likely to get fewer votes than John McCain did getting blown out in 2008.

You really don't need a more complex narrative than that.

 

[Genx87]

There was very low turnout, and low turnout generally helps Republicans. I mean despite the US population growing by about 20 million people Trump while winning looks likely to get fewer votes than John McCain did getting blown out in 2008.

You really don't need a more complex narrative than that.

I was just about to coming to post something similar. I havent had time to look at the numbers. But I heard 3rd party votes went from 1.5 Million in 2012 to 5 million this election. Curious if there is a break down on who voted for 3rd party and how they typically vote.

 

[351Cleveland]

I have no idea, other than a majority thought Clinton sucked more than Trump.

This. I don't like the man, but so long as he does what he said he would do, I can handle it. Do the job that you were elected to do.

 

[blankslate]

Because Trump gave lip service to opposing the same trade deals that Sanders did. that's a factor.

Because the chosen one of the DNC had feet of soft clay and along with Trump was the most disliked politician in recent electoral history so that you establishment hacks....


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[Ken g6]

I think MN, MI, WI, and PA tell everything.

I think it's more specific than that. That area is called the "rust belt" for a reason. Steel workers there, and people who work with steel like car assembly line workers, think Trump will bring back manufacturing to the area, and thus bring back their cushy union jobs.

These people are stupid; anything they can do robots can do better. (Including, evidently, voting. ) Manufacturing may come back, but cushy union jobs won't.

I heard in another thread that coal miners may also have been part of this demographic. I would compare coal miners to tobacco farmers: They both produce a product that kills people, largely through air pollution, and they should both find other jobs.

 

[IBMer]

I imagine that if we had the same peak into Trumps e-mails that we did of Clinton that things would be different.

 

[blankslate]

I was just about to coming to post something similar. I havent had time to look at the numbers. But I heard 3rd party votes went from 1.5 Million in 2012 to 5 million this election. Curious if there is a break down on who voted for 3rd party and how they typically vote.

I voted for Jill Stein. I usually vote for a democratic presidential candidate.

If I was in a swing state I probably would've brought a barf bag and vote Clinton.


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[[DHT]Osiris]

Once a generation or so, a candidate can get away with being elected based on 'being different'. That's meant many things in the past, and Obama almost got it with 'not an old fat white guy', but Trump basically came in as a pseudo-independent and completely stole the Repub party out from under them, from that point his platform was 'f everyone else, let's do stuff! with things! in places!' and he rally'd the disenfranchisement vote this generation. Won't work again until the current teenyboppers become 30-40somethings.

 

[Genx87]

I think it's more specific than that. That area is called the "rust belt" for a reason. Steel workers there, and people who work with steel like car assembly line workers, think Trump will bring back manufacturing to the area, and thus bring back their cushy union jobs.

These people are stupid; anything they can do robots can do better. (Including, evidently, voting. ) Manufacturing may come back, but cushy union jobs won't.

I heard in another thread that coal miners may also have been part of this demographic. I would compare coal miners to tobacco farmers: They both produce a product that kills people, largely through air pollution, and they should both find other jobs.

Translation: These people are stupid because they didnt for the nth time go vote democrat like their Unions told them.

Amazing how quickly progressive shit all over the working class when the working class doesnt give their full support.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Sure, "a vote against that".
But what will he achieve in that respect ?
Nothing. Because he'll be depending on the Republican Party. The career-politicians of the Republican Party are not gonna let Trump change anything. If Trump would have held some politicical office anywhere, people would have seen and known that one guy can not change anything. But because he had no history, voters can make themselves believe anything they want.

I do not agree with you. I think his admin can be effective, and here is why. Because I watched him take the entire GOP leadership and their most popular political figures behind the woodshed and whup their asses good and proper. He has defied them right along and won biggly every time. It looked like he was toast and they turned on him. And now, here we are, with everyone of them in a position where it is obvious they have utterly lost their power struggle with him, and the leverage it provides.

 

[vi edit]

I think it's more specific than that. That area is called the "rust belt" for a reason. Steel workers there, and people who work with steel like car assembly line workers, think Trump will bring back manufacturing to the area, and thus bring back their cushy union jobs.

These people are stupid; anything they can do robots can do better. (Including, evidently, voting. ) Manufacturing may come back, but cushy union jobs won't.

I heard in another thread that coal miners may also have been part of this demographic. I would compare coal miners to tobacco farmers: They both produce a product that kills people, largely through air pollution, and they should both find other jobs.

Kentucky, West Virginia and PA make up over 50% of all the coal jobs in the US. It's close to 40,000 jobs plus associated industry and family members. It's not *huge*, but in a state like PA where Hillary lost by 50,000 votes every single one of them counted.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

There was very low turnout, and low turnout generally helps Republicans. I mean despite the US population growing by about 20 million people Trump while winning looks likely to get fewer votes than John McCain did getting blown out in 2008.

You really don't need a more complex narrative than that.

That's the proximal cause but it's a bit like saying "The car hit the tree because it was moving in its direction and the operator did not prevent it". All well and good, but it's not a "why", rather it's a "what".

People are insecure and see Hillary as someone who plays favorites. Blue collar workers who aren't a minority but have been hurt might naturally view her as a continuation of all that's wrong.

A sense of hopelessness doesn't inspire confidence in the status quo.