LegendKiller
Lifer
- Mar 5, 2001
- 18,256
- 68
- 86
In the first five minutes today the market is up 133 points. July's employment report came in way better than expected and June's figures were also revised upward.
That is not to say all will be roses, but gloom and doom panic is not justified. A decision made in panic is usually a bad one.
And now we are down and getting worse fast. Sure, the NFP numbers were good, sure, US Corps are doing better than 08, but we aren't out of the woods and oil is still really high. Consumer Balance Sheets haven't healed as much and the number of consumers on food stamps (or general aid) and those using their CCs for daily expenses has increased.
As far as being an "all time low", we are only ~9% from the recent peak and almost flat for the year. The only "losses" he will have locked in is if we increase 9% and then, only 9%.
If the upside is 9%, what's the downside? If it is a binary choice and the downside is 9% from here, what are the odds of that considering what's going on in Europe and here in the US. Is it a better than 50% chance we decline more likely than increase in equal proportions?
I do, which is why I also took my money out. It's not a panic sell, it's a logical choice.
As far as being a long-term decision...investing IS a long term decision, but making short-term decisions about moving funds in/out isn't a horrible idea. Sure, you may lose some, but you may not.