Some polls now have Romney ahead.

[woolfe9999]

I think Romney's campaign and the Super PACs are realizing that Ohio is slipping away and at this point, it would take an upset to win it. Upsets are certainly possible, but if you're going to try for an upset, might as well try 4 or 5 states instead of 1.

Similarly, Obama should (and I think he will) continue to contest Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and any other states that are leaning slightly Romney. That way if Romney does pull a weird upset somewhere, Obama can still win it with an upset of his own.

I don't think they're trying for an upset in those states. I think they're spending money in them knowing they will lose because Obama has less money and they want him to divert it out of the real swing states to play defense. They are doing it to improve their chances in the states where they have a chance.

 

[Todd33]

It is a hail Mary for R-R.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

New poll from Marquette, Obama up 8 in WI, a +7 swing from their last poll.

 

[Farang]

New poll from Marquette, Obama up 8 in WI, a +7 swing from their last poll.

I'd say it isn't bad news but theirs has kind of swung around a bit, and been Obama leaning more often than not.

Romney still no progress in OH, with one less day to change it

 

[rudeguy]

New poll from Marquette, Obama up 8 in WI, a +7 swing from their last poll.

People really pay that much attention to fake polls?

 

[First]

Not that we didn't already know Romney had a near impossible task, but the CBS poll out today shows Obama leading in OH, FL & VA by 5, 1 and 2, respectively:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...-va-tight/?tag=cbsnewsHardNewsFDArea;fdmodule

 

[xBiffx]

Not that we didn't already know Romney had a near impossible task, but the CBS poll out today shows Obama leading in OH, FL & VA by 5, 1 and 2, respectively:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...-va-tight/?tag=cbsnewsHardNewsFDArea;fdmodule

Every state poll was under sampling Republicans by 7-8% This isn't 2008.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Sampling isn't done based on party ID. Party ID is one of the questions asked during the sample.

 

[First]

Every state poll was under sampling Republicans by 7-8% This isn't 2008.

But you're that guy that says he took a statistics course where he learned aggregation introduces more sampling error. So how the fuck would you know statistics from ass hair?

 

[xBiffx]

But you're that guy that says he took a statistics course where he learned aggregation introduces more sampling error. So how the fuck would you know statistics from ass hair?

Nice rebuttal. Your poll still sucks.

 

[Farang]

Nice rebuttal. Your poll still sucks.

my poll is bigger than your poll

 

[xBiffx]

Sampling isn't done based on party ID. Party ID is one of the questions asked during the sample.

Even if that is true it doesn't change the fact that 8% is a ridiculous spread.

 

[xBiffx]

my poll is bigger than your poll

Well my pole is bigger than your pole.

 

[OBLAMA2009]

imma vota fa obama, imma vote fa obama, but if romney is 7 point ahead in da popyala vote and obama still wins, dat aint democracy, we gotta scrood up systum. dat aint legit, dat aint legit...

 

[First]

I'm a toothless hack who pretended to take stat.

Yes we know, now go play in traffic.

 

[jpeyton]

Last night Romney lost a lot of ground in RCP's national average, and Obama gained ground in Ohio.

As we creep closer to the election, everything our Messiah Nate Silver has prophesied is coming to pass.

Sandy did Obama a huge favor: it made Romney irrelevant in the news cycle right before the election. The cherry on top is that Christie, once a Romney sweetheart, is now stumping for Obama while every news station in the country has their cameras fixed on the pair surveying the damage.

 

[woolfe9999]

Not that we didn't already know Romney had a near impossible task, but the CBS poll out today shows Obama leading in OH, FL & VA by 5, 1 and 2, respectively:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162...-va-tight/?tag=cbsnewsHardNewsFDArea;fdmodule

I'm still inclined to think that Romney is leading by a narrow margin in Fl. That's bad news for him in OH and VA though. VA is extremely tight right now but it could be important because it's a possible second route for Obama if he loses OH.

 

[xBiffx]

imma vota fa obama, imma vote fa obama, but if romney is 7 point ahead in da popula vote and obama still wins, dat aint democracy, we gotta scrood up systum

werd

 

[randomrogue]

Are those CBS numbers real?

 

[Blackjack200]

Are those CBS numbers real?

Yes, but they are just individual polls, you have to take them in context.

 

[jpeyton]

Are those CBS numbers real?

Never look at an individual poll, always look at the averages. RCP, 538.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Even if that is true it doesn't change the fact that 8% is a ridiculous spread.

Anything to back that up?

"This ain't 2008" isn't anything.

 

[xBiffx]

Anything to back that up?

"This ain't 2008" isn't anything.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx

The title is indeed strange for this survey given the results at the bottom. I guess they were talking about demographics such as race, sex, age, etc.

 

[Charles Kozierok]

Okay, if Gallup is right, you're correct, and Romney will surprise nearly everyone next Tuesday.

I personally think someone's been pumping marijuana smoke into the Gallup offices for the last couple of months. We'll see.

 

[xBiffx]

Okay, if Gallup is right, you're correct, and Romney will surprise nearly everyone next Tuesday.

I personally think someone's been pumping marijuana smoke into the Gallup offices for the last couple of months. We'll see.

Perhaps. I just found it interesting (suspicious?) that every other number correlated back to 2008 except party affiliation.