According to some reports, they upped it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/nate-silver-joe-scarborough-bet_n_2056401.html
Besides Spidey & Perknose's $500 bet, are there any other active wagers here?
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama CNN/Opinion Research Obama 50, Romney 47 Obama +3
Ohio: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 49, Romney 49 Tie
Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Denver Post/SurveyUSA Obama 47, Romney 45 Obama +2
New Hampshire: Romney vs. Obama New England College Obama 50, Romney 44 Obama +6
Iowa: Romney vs. Obama Gravis Marketing Obama 49, Romney 45 Obama +4
Michigan: Romney vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, Romney 47 Obama +5
PPP: MN O+9, MI O+6.
More pipe dreams biting the dust.
Spidey and I also bet $500, and pretty sure one or two others here did too.
Yeah, their national poll ticked two points to Obama to make it tied now. They also will line up with the rest of the polls a few days before election so they can claim they have a great record of accuracy.If Rasmussen is calling Ohio even, Obama should carry it easily.
PPP: MN O+9, MI O+6.
More pipe dreams biting the dust.
Did you guys use an escrow service or was it on the honor system?
You don't know what the fuck you're talking about. You can't test probabilities on unique events that happen once. If he says 100% and he's wrong then sure. But if he says Romney has a 25% chance to win and he wins then he's right. If he says Obama will win then he's right. He can't lose.
Did you guys use an escrow service or was it on the honor system?
This is getting stale, I can't wait for Tuesday. It basically comes down to whether or not you think there has been a widespread false assumption in all of the polling this year. The polling itself points to a virtually guaranteed win for Obama.
If the polling has systematically under represented Republican support then there will be adjustments that need to be made and I'm sure Silver will be the first to do it. Silver is basically assuming the top line of all the polls are accurate, which isn't an absurd assumption really.The underlying polling data he is going off can win or lose, if it is shown to have systemic bias in one direction or other. Not only the pollsters, but people like Silver, would have to rethink their methods in the future.
As a practical matter, if Silver says Obama is the 80% favorite and Romney wins, Silver will lose some credibility even if he technically didn't "lose." But really the fault would be with the polling itself. Silver's weighting is almost irrelevant here. Overall it is extremely similar to the un-weighted averages.
This is a turnout election now. Who is going to show up to vote (or have voted already)? If there are normal levels of Republicans vs Democrats and given that Romney has a close to double digit lead amongst independents this will be an easy win for Romney.
You disagree with anything you quoted there? Which part?[lulz Nov. 6th placeholder bump]
You disagree with anything you quoted there? Which part?
this will be an easy win for Romney
If the polling has systematically under represented Republican support then there will be adjustments that need to be made and I'm sure Silver will be the first to do it. Silver is basically assuming the top line of all the polls are accurate, which isn't an absurd assumption really.
I've said it all along that if the turnout is basically the same as 2008 then Romney isn't going to win. However I don't think it will be 2008 level (or close to it). Both Rasmussen and Gallup have party affiliation back to historically normal levels and I have no reason to doubt that these polls aren't accurate.
I also think that independents have been under represented as well. The latest 8 national polls (where it is stated) has 26.3% independents in their samples.
This is a turnout election now. Who is going to show up to vote (or have voted already)? If there are normal levels of Republicans vs Democrats and given that Romney has a close to double digit lead amongst independents this will be an easy win for Romney.
The consensus of polls (excluding gallup and rasmussen, who weight their polls) seems to indicate a D+6 with independents breaking for romney by 55/45, which would give Obama 290-303 EV's. I'll go with that.If the polling has systematically under represented Republican support then there will be adjustments that need to be made and I'm sure Silver will be the first to do it. Silver is basically assuming the top line of all the polls are accurate, which isn't an absurd assumption really.
I've said it all along that if the turnout is basically the same as 2008 then Romney isn't going to win. However I don't think it will be 2008 level (or close to it). Both Rasmussen and Gallup have party affiliation back to historically normal levels and I have no reason to doubt that these polls aren't accurate.
I also think that independents have been under represented as well. The latest 8 national polls (where it is stated) has 26.3% independents in their samples.
This is a turnout election now. Who is going to show up to vote (or have voted already)? If there are normal levels of Republicans vs Democrats and given that Romney has a close to double digit lead amongst independents this will be an easy win for Romney.
You disagree with anything you quoted there? Which part?
There was an IF in there. If the turnout is more in line with historical norms then Romney wins easy. On the other hand if it is closer to 2008 then Romney is done.I would guess this part...
Rasmussen weights by party ID but Gallup doesn't.The consensus of polls (excluding gallup and rasmussen, who weight their polls) seems to indicate a D+6 with independents breaking for romney by 55/45, which would give Obama 290-303 EV's. I'll go with that.