Aren't they pretty close at this point? I mean 2000 vs 2500 last quarter per week, now it's 500 per day, and they're "expecting 5000" per week in June was it? They're certainly working hard on increasing the output now and I can't imagine it won't be improving from here. Not sure if the quality is decent but still.
It's not like they promised 2000 and made 30.
No, they really aren't close. In
Feb 2017, they stated 5k per week was their goal by Q4 2017 and 10k per week in 2018. Right now it's "quite likely" they're going to manage 500/day this whole week (if you want to take Elon's word for it). We're coming up at the half way mark for 2018 and they're not even to their Q4 2017 goals. If they manage the 500/day they're finally
half way to their Q4 2017 goal. That's not exactly a stellar performance and given how long they've been stuck at that point, it makes their stated expectation of 5000/week in June seem unlikely. Just as importantly complaints about QC and build quality are growing. That is a VERY bad combination, especially when you're already off talking about your next big thing.
Tesla fans seem to live in this bubble where they don't realize the implication and depth of the statements being made. The Model 3 is supposed to be the savior of Tesla that's going to take over the auto industry and bring doom to the old fashioned car companies. Let's for a minute subscribe to the fantasy that there's infinite demand for this car, it's just a matter of production. Look at the Top 20 cars sold in the USA last year.
Number 20 was the Hyundai Elantra at 198,210 sold. If you do the math, that adds up to needing a production rate of 3,811/week. Even if Tesla managed to sustain the 500/day they're now hoping for, that still falls short. If they want to take the crown of the best selling passenger car from the Camry, they need 7,443/week. If they want to take the #1 automobile spot from Ford (that's the goal, right?), they need 17,245/week.
Those numbers are just US sales and based on registrations, half of Tesla's sales were overseas. Which means Tesla needs to up their current manufacturing numbers by 5x to be able to keep up with the Camry and that's again making the unlikely assumption that there's infinite demand for the car.
Obviously the major manufacturers are no strangers to money problems. The difference is, they have production capacity to try to make a come back. Back in March, Business Insider wrote:
While Tesla has been reliably losing money since 2010, GM has made $70 billion since its own postbankruptcy IPO in 2010.
Tesla is digging themselves a VERY deep hole and their ability to get out is not looking great. Elon is a master of redirection. He's constantly trying to get your attention with shiny new things so you don't notice the problems with the "old" stuff.