Something's Wrong at Tesla

[Midwayman]

In my opinion autonomous will never work until all cars, roads, and pedestrians are electronically talking to each other.

I'd argue that Waymo already has them working barring serve weather. It all depends on where your bar is I guess. All roads (including gravel, etc) and all weather with reliability at least as high as a human... most expert think we are possibly decades away. That's not a never, just there as diminishing returns on edge cases. Normal roads in most weather, probably 5 years. Handling severe weather will take longer. Never is a long time.

 

[Zorba]

Humans are irrational. Statistically meaningless deaths by unthinking robots are monumentally more terrifying than the vast number of daily deaths by other means that we have long come to accept as a way of life, today.

Considering how few Tesla with autopilot are actually on the road, the accidents may not be statistically insignificant. Also when an unthinking machine does it, it is much more likely to occur again and should be looked at as a warning that something needs fixed.

Considering this is the second Tesla to plow into a stopped for firetruck at high speed this year, I think it is pointing to a fundamental flaw in the system. We could ignore it, until 20% of cars on the road we're affected, but that doesn't seem that smart.

 

[Zorba]

I'd argue that Waymo already has them working barring serve weather. It all depends on where your bar is I guess. All roads (including gravel, etc) and all weather with reliability at least as high as a human... most expert think we are possibly decades away. That's not a never, just there as diminishing returns on edge cases. Normal roads in most weather, probably 5 years. Handling severe weather will take longer. Never is a long time.

I think the legal side will take longer than the technology side, at least for normal roads under reasonable conditions.

 

[zinfamous]

Considering how few Tesla with autopilot are actually on the road, the accidents may not be statistically insignificant. Also when an unthinking machine does it, it is much more likely to occur again and should be looked at as a warning that something needs fixed.

Considering this is the second Tesla to plow into a stopped for firetruck at high speed this year, I think it is pointing to a fundamental flaw in the system. We could ignore it, until 20% of cars on the road we're affected, but that doesn't seem that smart.

I agree, and yes this is simply why we need more and more of these cars to get a better data sample--but there in lies the current, obvious, fixable issue vs the current status quo. We can address software flaws and adjust the system until we reach a smaller and smaller number of incidents with automated driving. We are already pretty much already at our plateau of what really can't be done to further improve human-operated vehicles. The problem, clearly, is humans. Several decades of regulation, laws, better and better safety features, human behavior is still grossly unchangeable at a population level and still wildly incapable of performing such tasks as efficiently and safely as non-selfish automated systems can.

Even ignoring the safety issues, we can rather easily fix traffic completely--which is a human brain issue, not so much a volume of vehicles issue.

 

[sontakke]

Imagine couple of driver routinely driving aka following each other and keeping their eye on the rear of the car in front of them and sending text to their loved ones. I mean I describing 99% of the drivers! Imagine going at 60 miles per hours with few car lengths. The guy in front suddenly notices the stopped fire truck in front and yanks the wheel and switches the lane. The person following keeps on going and gets suddenly stopped by the fire truck. hard.

this happens probably too many times in single day in USA; Of course it is a news when the car plowing in is a Tesla.

I don't have the URL handy but some of the people who work on developing self-driving capability (aka competitor to Tesla) have said that their algorithm also would not have detected the stopped fire truck under similar circumstances. There are too many other over head signs etc on the road that a false positive would be even worse than that i.e. if any self-driving car were to emergency brake in the middle of highway, the resultant carnage would be worse. This means the algorithm ignores stationary objects because otherwise it will not be able to drive at all.

I don't agree 100% but I understand the rationale.

Have you guys read about 100 car pile ups when something unexpected happens on the road? There are some epic youtube videos! The principle is the same. One can say you should never follow somebody that closely but seriously if the vehicle in front of you suddenly becomes a stopped fire truck, you will not be able to stop, and the car behind you will not stop, and the car behind it will not stop, and the car behind it will not stop and the car behind it will not stop ...

 

[Kaido]

I don't have the URL handy but some of the people who work on developing self-driving capability (aka competitor to Tesla) have said that their algorithm also would not have detected the stopped fire truck under similar circumstances. There are too many other over head signs etc on the road that a false positive would be even worse than that i.e. if any self-driving car were to emergency brake in the middle of highway, the resultant carnage would be worse. This means the algorithm ignores stationary objects because otherwise it will not be able to drive at all.

I've read that too. Although why wouldn't they just use a separate system, like Subaru's EyeSight, for Automatic Emergency Braking? You'd think rule #1 of self-driving cars is "don't run into stationary deathtraps like concrete barriers or firetrucks"

 

[Kaido]

Edmunds Says Long-Term Tesla Model 3 Has Tons Of Issues:

https://insideevs.com/edmunds-says-long-term-tesla-model-3-has-tons-of-issues/

Reminds me of a lot of the problems my highly-computerized Jeep Renegade has had:

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model...la-model-3-monthly-update-for-april-2018.html

I may be a Tesla fanboy, but I absolutely do not believe companies should be given any slack in terms of quality & safety, especially not for a car with a base price of $35k that goes as high as $86k.

 

[bigi]

^ when Honda got their newest version of their Odyssey, it was crap in every aspect. I do read Honda forums and people complained a lot about panel gaps, electronics, bad assembly, transmission, torque converter, interior, etc, etc

Nobody reported that. People still pay 50K for top end minivan. Even worse, their all but 2 top trims have super crappy transmission by default, period. Shell 50K for Touring/Grand Touring or just get terrible tranny.

Mercedes, which has many expensive models ain't short of recalls and issues
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/mercedes-benz-recalls

Haven't seen many articles about this. Frankly, have not seen a single article about it.

Every ICE car maker deals with this kind of crap. Only Tesla is being singled out.

 

[rstrohkirch]

I think these two:

• The car will not shift into Drive or Reverse upon startup. "Vehicle Systems Are Powering Up. Shift Into D or R After Message Clears." Have to wait for it to power up. A loud click comes from the rear of the car as if a drive shaft is engaging and the message on the screen goes away.

• The car displays a new message: "Cannot Maintain Vehicle Power. Car May Stop Driving or Shut Down." No shutdowns yet, but keeping an eye out.

 

[Midwayman]

I don't have the URL handy but some of the people who work on developing self-driving capability (aka competitor to Tesla) have said that their algorithm also would not have detected the stopped fire truck under similar circumstances. There are too many other over head signs etc on the road that a false positive would be even worse than that i.e. if any self-driving car were to emergency brake in the middle of highway, the resultant carnage would be worse. This means the algorithm ignores stationary objects because otherwise it will not be able to drive at all.

Its so much worse than that really. What about a trashbag blowing across the highway, or a tumbleweed. Some sensors will return rain or pockets of different temp air as solid objects. Not only do you have to detect something, you have to classify if its really as solid as it seems. If SDC operated on 100% hard brake on every object they would have a hard time getting anywhere.

 

[Zorba]

^ when Honda got their newest version of their Odyssey, it was crap in every aspect. I do read Honda forums and people complained a lot about panel gaps, electronics, bad assembly, transmission, torque converter, interior, etc, etc

Nobody reported that. People still pay 50K for top end minivan. Even worse, their all but 2 top trims have super crappy transmission by default, period. Shell 50K for Touring/Grand Touring or just get terrible tranny.

Mercedes, which has many expensive models ain't short of recalls and issues
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/mercedes-benz-recalls

Haven't seen many articles about this. Frankly, have not seen a single article about it.

Every ICE car maker deals with this kind of crap. Only Tesla is being singled out.

Tesla and SpaceX also get far more than their share of free positive news coverage. How much news coverage is there for Porche? They sale more cars than Tesla. How about ULA? They launch more rockets than SpaceX.

Elon is a media whore, which is great for his companies, but when you are continually in the news for positive things you have be okay with your faults getting aired out too.

 

[Zorba]

Its so much worse than that really. What about a trashbag blowing across the highway, or a tumbleweed. Some sensors will return rain or pockets of different temp air as solid objects. Not only do you have to detect something, you have to classify if its really as solid as it seems. If SDC operated on 100% hard brake on every object they would have a hard time getting anywhere.

If the system can't tell the difference between a sign, trash bag and a FIRE TRUCK, it shouldn't be released to the public. This also occurred at a stop light, where you should be expecting to stop.

 

[Kaido]

^ when Honda got their newest version of their Odyssey, it was crap in every aspect. I do read Honda forums and people complained a lot about panel gaps, electronics, bad assembly, transmission, torque converter, interior, etc, etc

Nobody reported that. People still pay 50K for top end minivan. Even worse, their all but 2 top trims have super crappy transmission by default, period. Shell 50K for Touring/Grand Touring or just get terrible tranny.

Mercedes, which has many expensive models ain't short of recalls and issues
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/mercedes-benz-recalls

Haven't seen many articles about this. Frankly, have not seen a single article about it.

Every ICE car maker deals with this kind of crap. Only Tesla is being singled out.

I think part of it has to do with because it's a new(ish) technology (so people are anxious to see good quality & good results) & partly because EV's are expected to last so much longer than ICE vehicles. My buddy has 100k miles on his Honda Fit EV (at 82 miles per charge, lol) & hasn't even had to change the brake pads yet. All he's done is rotate the tires, change the wipers, and add more windshield fluid. Plus, the Tesla batteries are performing phenomenally well:

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-batteries-last-longer/

TL;DR: Roughly 5% degradation after the first 50,000 miles (on averaged from the ~350 cars surveyed) & 90% capacity at 186,000 miles (so a long time before the next 5% drop). So I think that's a big reason why people are concerned about tolerances & build quality...it sounds like you can keep a Tesla pretty much mint for 10 or 20 years easily.

 

[bradly1101]

Eek!
https://reut.tv/2IMTwnC

 

[bradly1101]

^ when Honda got their newest version of their Odyssey, it was crap in every aspect. I do read Honda forums and people complained a lot about panel gaps, electronics, bad assembly, transmission, torque converter, interior, etc, etc

Nobody reported that. People still pay 50K for top end minivan. Even worse, their all but 2 top trims have super crappy transmission by default, period. Shell 50K for Touring/Grand Touring or just get terrible tranny.

Mercedes, which has many expensive models ain't short of recalls and issues
https://www.consumeraffairs.com/mercedes-benz-recalls

Haven't seen many articles about this. Frankly, have not seen a single article about it.

Every ICE car maker deals with this kind of crap. Only Tesla is being singled out.

I don't know, Toyota seems to get it right every time. I had a 24 yo. van that wouldn't stop. The new one has all the crap, so far so good.

Odysseys and Pacificas use the infamous ZF-9 tranny. Eek!

 

[Zorba]

Eek!
https://reut.tv/2IMTwnC

Its funny how quickly narcissists turn on the media once they stop reporting the hype and reporting the truth.

 

[Kaido]

Eek!
https://reut.tv/2IMTwnC

CNN is a little touchy about it:

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/24/technology/pacific-newsletter/index.html

As always, there's at least two sides to everything:

1. A journalist credibility tracking system wouldn't be a bad idea. People have made websites for tracking presidential promises vs. execution of said promises, and they actually exist for media websites as a whole, such as this one:

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/

Now, that webpage hasn't been updated since last year, but it shows that, at the time, the majority of CNN's statements aren't 100% factually true; that most - 37% - of what they say on air is "mostly true". So yes, citizens have a right to question the authenticity & truthfulness of a journalist & tracking those data points over time would be an effective way to see the credibility of an individual media representative. However, like this Verge article points out, crowdsourcing that probably isn't the best way to get to the truth:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/24/17390208/elon-musk-pravda-journalism-truth

On the other hand, Musk has been burned by the media time after time. Top Gear pretended they ran out of battery:

https://jalopnik.com/5115617/shocking-scandal-top-gear-tesla-didnt-run-out-of-juice

Then a New York Times reporter did the same thing, except the data showed otherwise:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannm...s-new-york-times-reporter-driving-in-circles/

Those were both very damaging media pieces to a fledgling car company, which is especially frustrating because (1) EV's can reduce gasoline & diesel pollution (although they create waste in other ways), and (2) both of those media pieces straight-up lied about it, which calls the credibility of the reports directly into question. The bottom line is that they had an agenda to fulfill & sold the public a lie, so it's no wonder that Musk is angry at the media, because a lot of consumer purchases are driven by media influence. And Musk has car data on his side, which he's been very careful to use to defend every newsworthy Tesla crash with on their official blog over the years.

2. On the flip side, Musk just shot himself in the foot. He's been the media darling for the past decade. He's the new Steve Jobs, minus the reputation of being an angry dictator closed doors, at least as far as anyone knows. He's providing a lot of good American jobs & making good products (lowering the price of safety-focused electric cars, selling solar panels, making rockets), he's endeared himself to consumers by answering their questions on Twitter, and overall projects such a fun image of the company that a lot of people are willing to forgive the constantly missed deadlines & buy into the hype machine because they do actually (eventually) deliver. If he's smart, he'll let go of the attack on the media & just keep letting his data do the talking. It's not too hard to get ousted from your own company these days, either...

 

[sdifox]

CNN is a little touchy about it:

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/24/technology/pacific-newsletter/index.html

As always, there's at least two sides to everything:

1. A journalist credibility tracking system wouldn't be a bad idea. People have made websites for tracking presidential promises vs. execution of said promises, and they actually exist for media websites as a whole, such as this one:

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/tv/cnn/

Now, that webpage hasn't been updated since last year, but it shows that, at the time, the majority of CNN's statements aren't 100% factually true; that most - 37% - of what they say on air is "mostly true". So yes, citizens have a right to question the authenticity & truthfulness of a journalist & tracking those data points over time would be an effective way to see the credibility of an individual media representative. However, like this Verge article points out, crowdsourcing that probably isn't the best way to get to the truth:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/24/17390208/elon-musk-pravda-journalism-truth

On the other hand, Musk has been burned by the media time after time. Top Gear pretended they ran out of battery:

https://jalopnik.com/5115617/shocking-scandal-top-gear-tesla-didnt-run-out-of-juice

Then a New York Times reporter did the same thing, except the data showed otherwise:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannm...s-new-york-times-reporter-driving-in-circles/

Those were both very damaging media pieces to a fledgling car company, which is especially frustrating because (1) EV's can reduce gasoline & diesel pollution (although they create waste in other ways), and (2) both of those media pieces straight-up lied about it, which calls the credibility of the reports directly into question. The bottom line is that they had an agenda to fulfill & sold the public a lie, so it's no wonder that Musk is angry at the media, because a lot of consumer purchases are driven by media influence. And Musk has car data on his side, which he's been very careful to use to defend every newsworthy Tesla crash with on their official blog over the years.

2. On the flip side, Musk just shot himself in the foot. He's been the media darling for the past decade. He's the new Steve Jobs, minus the reputation of being an angry dictator closed doors, at least as far as anyone knows. He's providing a lot of good American jobs & making good products (lowering the price of safety-focused electric cars, selling solar panels, making rockets), he's endeared himself to consumers by answering their questions on Twitter, and overall projects such a fun image of the company that a lot of people are willing to forgive the constantly missed deadlines & buy into the hype machine because they do actually (eventually) deliver. If he's smart, he'll let go of the attack on the media & just keep letting his data do the talking. It's not too hard to get ousted from your own company these days, either...

Top Gear is comedy, no one take their antic seriously, including themselves.

 

[Kaido]

Top Gear is comedy, no one take their antic seriously, including themselves.

Yes & no. A lot of people with money to burn make snap decisions based off what they see in the media, and if your first exposure to Tesla is the Top Gear crew pushing a car with a dead battery, then you're not going to have much faith in the brand, you know? Reputation sensitivity is a real thing as well, especially as you get into higher price brackets, because if you were to buy one of those & show up & your friends were all like hey, you have that car that died on Top Gear! Then that would be kind of embarrassing, you know? It's a fun & comedic car show, but it does have power in the real world as far as influencing how people think about a car and, downstream, making purchasing decisions about those vehicles.

 

[sdifox]

Yes & no. A lot of people with money to burn make snap decisions based off what they see in the media, and if your first exposure to Tesla is the Top Gear crew pushing a car with a dead battery, then you're not going to have much faith in the brand, you know? Reputation sensitivity is a real thing as well, especially as you get into higher price brackets, because if you were to buy one of those & show up & your friends were all like hey, you have that car that died on Top Gear! Then that would be kind of embarrassing, you know? It's a fun & comedic car show, but it does have power in the real world as far as influencing how people think about a car and, downstream, making purchasing decisions about those vehicles.

How many rich people do you know watch top gear?

Other than Madoka

 

[Kaido]

How many rich people do you know watch top gear?

Other than Madoka

You'd be surprised. A lot of my work clients drive pretty high-end cars and are surprisingly sensitive to social criticism. You typically either buy a high-end car because you personally think it's cool & want one, or because it's a status symbol, and if it's the latter, you usually don't want something that will be criticized in public. Ask any Delorean owner how many jokes they get about cocaine in the wheels

I mean, just look at it from your own point of view...Kia has a new sports sedan out for $52k (fully-loaded) called the Kia Stinger. It competes with $70k+ cars, so it's a pretty good value at $20k off & comes with a 365hp twin-turbo engine, AWD, etc. But would you pay $50,000 for something with a Kia badge on it?

 

[sdifox]

You'd be surprised. A lot of my work clients drive pretty high-end cars and are surprisingly sensitive to social criticism. You typically either buy a high-end car because you personally think it's cool & want one, or because it's a status symbol, and if it's the latter, you usually don't want something that will be criticized in public. Ask any Delorean owner how many jokes they get about cocaine in the wheels

I mean, just look at it from your own point of view...Kia has a new sports sedan out for $52k (fully-loaded) called the Kia Stinger. It competes with $70k+ cars, so it's a pretty good value at $20k off & comes with a 365hp twin-turbo engine, AWD, etc. But would you pay $50,000 for something with a Kia badge on it?

I might, once they work out the kinks. Lol I like how it starts in the low 30s and can end up at 50

I don't buy new cars anymore.

 

[Midwayman]

If the system can't tell the difference between a sign, trash bag and a FIRE TRUCK, it shouldn't be released to the public. This also occurred at a stop light, where you should be expecting to stop.

Sure, but people act like "OMG IT SAW A SOLID OBJECT!" the reality is a lot more complicated is the point.

 

[zinfamous]

Yes & no. A lot of people with money to burn make snap decisions based off what they see in the media, and if your first exposure to Tesla is the Top Gear crew pushing a car with a dead battery, then you're not going to have much faith in the brand, you know? Reputation sensitivity is a real thing as well, especially as you get into higher price brackets, because if you were to buy one of those & show up & your friends were all like hey, you have that car that died on Top Gear! Then that would be kind of embarrassing, you know? It's a fun & comedic car show, but it does have power in the real world as far as influencing how people think about a car and, downstream, making purchasing decisions about those vehicles.

Well on the most recent episode of Grand Tour, Clarkson raved about the Model X....except the price. Pretty much everyone agreed that while it is an awesome car in nearly every way (even though 2/3rds of them are very skeptical of electric motors), the price is rather absurd. It's clearly meant for a different crowd.

Clarkson is definitely one for hyperbole when it comes to his passions regarding the evil electric motor, but I think in some of their tests, with May driving that all electric BMW, they presented a fair assessment of what really lies behind those cushy max ranges that these advertise: no AC, no fog control, no radio, no anything, 55 all the way and you better hope that other drivers don't cut you off regularly....and then the charge times, with limited charging stations and dubious predictability if the station will work for your car. They do exaggerate, but I think they are very fair in presenting the actual use case for these cars if you do own them.

 

[Zorba]

Sure, but people act like "OMG IT SAW A SOLID OBJECT!" the reality is a lot more complicated is the point.

Yeah, I agree that it is hard. My issue is with the fact that it was released to the public before it was ready.

Also these quick over the air patches that they create, there is no way they go through adequate testing before being released, like the one for the brakes they they are going to release in a few days. In the world I come from, safety critical software takes a ton of testing.

Speaking of it being hard though, this morning it was pouring ran when I was backing out of my garage, and the backing object avoidance system on my Subaru was going nuts. In heavy rain the AEB system will just turn itself off, but hasn't ever given a false positive.