SpaceX sticks the landing!

Page 3 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

PottedMeat

Lifer
Apr 17, 2002
12,365
475
126
this stage is probably going to end up in musk's office after they've analyzed the shit out of it

i wonder how much of a discount the first used rocket customer will get
 

CZroe

Lifer
Jun 24, 2001
24,195
856
126
The Jeff Bezos "welcome to the club" tweet was absolutely absurd.


Ugh. He actually went there?! This is night-and-day different from his purpose-built prototype thing that had no other mission than to take off and land.
 

KeithP

Diamond Member
Jun 15, 2000
5,660
198
106
Pretty damn impressive!

It would have been impressive without the failures before...for now it is just luck. If they continue to be successful with future launches it will rise to impressive.

-KeithP
 

slag

Lifer
Dec 14, 2000
10,473
81
101
It would have been impressive without the failures before...for now it is just luck. If they continue to be successful with future launches it will rise to impressive.

-KeithP

They are learning from the failures and making it better. I would say that's pretty impressive.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,774
146
Oh by the way, SO decided to chime in. She says that is the blue FCR with MCC 21. The other photo is FCR 1.

Basically, you aren't posting the FCR of the ISS MCC.

Yup, I thought that was obvious. . Hence the term "new".

The old ISS FCR (Blue) and the old Shuttle FCR (white) have been updated. The ISS FCR (FCR1) hasn't been done yet. The bugs need to be worked out of the new system before we move ops onto it. When it's ready they'll redo FCR1 while the FCT moves to the other FCR.
 

SSSnail

Lifer
Nov 29, 2006
17,461
82
86
What's so cutting edge and great about this?

Break it down for a noob one time.

They landed a reusable rocket.

On the target.

From space.

Vertically.

From space.

And it didn't tip over.

I've seen lawn darts have a lot less accuracy.
 

Phoenix86

Lifer
May 21, 2003
14,643
9
81
What's so cutting edge and great about this?

Break it down for a noob one time.

Falcon 9 cost $60MM

Fuel is .3%

Reusing the rocket will reduce launch cost by ~100x. Might not be quite that big a reduction but it's significantly cheaper.

The landing they did is actually harder than what will be done in the future because it had to turn around. Normally they will land in a more natural place down range, in the ocean.

This shows a comparison vs. Blue Origin as well as the difficulty in turning around.



https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3xvu9p/blue_origin_new_shepard_vs_spacex_falcon_9/
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,482
1,673
136
Falcon 9 cost $60MM

Fuel is .3%

Reusing the rocket will reduce launch cost by ~100x. Might not be quite that big a reduction but it's significantly cheaper.

The landing they did is actually harder than what will be done in the future because it had to turn around. Normally they will land in a more natural place down range, in the ocean.

This shows a comparison vs. Blue Origin as well as the difficulty in turning around.



https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comments/3xvu9p/blue_origin_new_shepard_vs_spacex_falcon_9/

It isn't quite as drastic as that because the 2nd stage and the fairing is not re-used. I have seen prices of about $40 Million tossed around for a Falcon-9 launch with a already flown 1st stage. Also SpaceX is going to adjust the price based on what the market will bear and will allow them to get market share. As other competitors develop re-usability we could see more of a price ware. However even at a price of $40 Million SpaceX will have no problem selling launch services because they are coming in below anyone else. The problem with SpaceX is they have a large backlog of launches on the books. They need to start building up a good launch tempo of at least 12 launches a year if not more.

However a large fly in the ointment is that nobody is very sure how elastic the demand for space launches is. IE as the price of launches go down will the demand for launching hardware go up. It doesn't help much if you drop the price say from $60 Million to $6 Million and the demand stays the same. All you have done is reduced your profit.
 

Phoenix86

Lifer
May 21, 2003
14,643
9
81
However a large fly in the ointment is that nobody is very sure how elastic the demand for space launches is. IE as the price of launches go down will the demand for launching hardware go up. It doesn't help much if you drop the price say from $60 Million to $6 Million and the demand stays the same. All you have done is reduced your profit.

The 100x reduction is a quote from Musk, so it's both from an expert but also the inventor. It could be very incorrect, but it'll be a massive reduction. There's another fly in the ointment. We've never reused heavy lifters, so there might be a hard limit on re-usability, or higher than expected costs because X part needs to be replaced every time, and it takes a lot of labor to replace. Most of the cost is in labor, not materials (they are only 2% of the cost).
 

bigi

Platinum Member
Aug 8, 2001
2,484
154
106
It would have been impressive without the failures before...for now it is just luck. If they continue to be successful with future launches it will rise to impressive.

-KeithP

For now it is just luck you are alive with apparently no brain.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,482
1,673
136
The 100x reduction is a quote from Musk, so it's both from an expert but also the inventor. It could be very incorrect, but it'll be a massive reduction. There's another fly in the ointment. We've never reused heavy lifters, so there might be a hard limit on re-usability, or higher than expected costs because X part needs to be replaced every time, and it takes a lot of labor to replace. Most of the cost is in labor, not materials (they are only 2% of the cost).

He says his eventual goal is 100x reduction in cost. The re-use of the 1st stage isn't completion of that goal, just another step on that journey. You are correct, there very well might be a limit on re-usability because of the stress on the individual parts. However what SpaceX is doing is gaining knowledge that will go into their next generation LV, "BFR" using Methane engines. This vehicle will be much larger and will rival or exceed the SLS in launch capability but the goal for that launch vehicle is full re-usability both 1st and 2nd stage. The Methane engines for the "BFR" will not have the same "soot" buildup issues that a RP-1 engine has. Elon expects that the "BFR" is what will then allow SpaceX to push towards eventual Mars colonization. The Falcon launch vehicle contract will provide the funding.
 

Theb

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2006
3,533
9
76
That's great. I'm going to eat the face of the next person who tells me this is like launching a pencil over the Empire State building and then landing it in a shoe box. It was fine the first couple of hundred times but now I'm ready to eat faces. I'll probably spend most of my life in prison, but that won't uneat your face you fuck.
 

Phoenix86

Lifer
May 21, 2003
14,643
9
81
He says his eventual goal is 100x reduction in cost. The re-use of the 1st stage isn't completion of that goal, just another step on that journey. You are correct, there very well might be a limit on re-usability because of the stress on the individual parts. However what SpaceX is doing is gaining knowledge that will go into their next generation LV, "BFR" using Methane engines. This vehicle will be much larger and will rival or exceed the SLS in launch capability but the goal for that launch vehicle is full re-usability both 1st and 2nd stage. The Methane engines for the "BFR" will not have the same "soot" buildup issues that a RP-1 engine has. Elon expects that the "BFR" is what will then allow SpaceX to push towards eventual Mars colonization. The Falcon launch vehicle contract will provide the funding.

Didn't know the 100x number was the goal and this was the first step, but that makes sense, thanks. Also, need to read up on the methane engines.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,482
1,673
136

Ns1

No Lifer
Jun 17, 2001
55,414
1,574
126
That's great. I'm going to eat the face of the next person who tells me this is like launching a pencil over the Empire State building and then landing it in a shoe box. It was fine the first couple of hundred times but now I'm ready to eat faces. I'll probably spend most of my life in prison, but that won't uneat your face you fuck.

5/7 tell us how you really feel
 

FireJack

Member
Oct 31, 2015
40
16
81
However a large fly in the ointment is that nobody is very sure how elastic the demand for space launches is. IE as the price of launches go down will the demand for launching hardware go up. It doesn't help much if you drop the price say from $60 Million to $6 Million and the demand stays the same. All you have done is reduced your profit.

The demand for space launches will likely skyrocket as prices drop. Bigelow is planning on having a expandable space station up by 2020 and that alone will offer 20 or more a year.
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,482
1,673
136
The demand for space launches will likely skyrocket as prices drop. Bigelow is planning on having a expandable space station up by 2020 and that alone will offer 20 or more a year.

That is all dependent on how elastic the demand is. For example gasoline is very in-elastic good. People depend on it and as the price fluctuates the actual consumption doesn't vary very much because of the dependency in the economy on gasoline/diesel.

For space launches, consider this. If it costs you $100 Million to build a satellite and then $60 Million to launch it. Even if the price of launch drops to $20 Million your overall price to build and put the satellite into orbit has only dropped by 25%. What also has to drop is the price to build the satellites themselves.

Look what else SpaceX is developing? A low cost satellite bus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_satellite_development_facility
 

Rumpltzer

Diamond Member
Jun 7, 2003
4,815
33
91
Yeah, SpaceX, Google, Facebook, OneWeb, Samsung... all of them have announced plans for low-cost satellites (some of them are partners). This would be thousands of satellites per constellation.

Not sure how small these "small" satellites would be (i.e. how many can be carried/deployed per launch)...
 

Blue_Max

Diamond Member
Jul 7, 2011
4,227
153
106
I loved this bit of news! (No nutjob complaints over inappropriate girlie shirts either!)

Anything to step up our space exploration programs. Still need that space elevator development - the less fuel used to escape atmosphere, the further we can explore! Easier to bring things back too, when you don't have to fight re-entry.

Yep. We're moving in the right direction again.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |