As posted in another thread, today's rumour from Bits-And-Chips is 13% in scientific workloads:
"Zen+ -> Zen2: +13% IPC (Average) in scientific tasks. Not bad. P.S. No gaming data, atm."
https://mobile.twitter.com/BitsAndChipsEng/status/1052194745647165441
How much was i9-9900K ahead of the Ryzen 2700X in the revised PT study again? I've seen various numbers quoted. But let's say 16%, including outliers such as the primordial CS:GO title. Assuming Ryzen 3000 has 13% IPC uplift and a mere 10% frequency uplift, we're at 24% uplift total (1.13 * 1.10 = 1.243), putting it well ahead of i9-9900K — more so, if you eliminate outliers.
This sounds reasonable. So why do so many here expect so little of AMD? 50% of those voting so far trust Intel to retain or regain the lead, and of those of you who voted "no" and have put your thoughts into a post, most of you doubt Zen 2 will even catch up with i9-9900K. I thought most of the doubters would concede that Zen 2 would probably leap ahead, but that Intel would come back next autumn with a rabbit out of the hat. But I am surprised to see that AMD mindshare is even lower than that.
Come on! Let's expect something from AMD! Not even matching a 14nm Skylake-derivative by 2019 would be a resounding failure of planning and execution. If so, AMD would be doomed hadn't Intel stumbled with 10nm. Clearly, it would have been a downright folly of AMD CEO Lisa Su to embark on head-to-head competition with Intel in high-performance x86, if she thought they could only target Skylake performance by 2018-2019, when Intel roadmaps showed 10nm and Ice Lake in the same timeframe. That does not make any sense. She must have been confident about competing against a well-performing 10nm Ice Lake by now, for her to decide to squarely focus on high-performance x86 again.
Note that her laser focus included dropping (or parking) many projects, including K12, Jim Keller's custom ARM core, along with Rory Read's entire ambidextrous strategy with ARM, which was devised to shield AMD somewhat from direct Intel competition by spearheading a new niche — Lisa Su threw all that out and said "brush up and let's go fight Intel again at the x86 high end".
Do you simply think she's just overly confident and will fall short?