Speculation: i9-9900K is Intel's last hurrah in gaming

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firewolfsm

Golden Member
Oct 16, 2005
1,848
29
91
We are talking about software supposedly written to take advantage of an 8 core CPU, weak or not.
The software should already be written for 8 cores, so if that were any advantage on the desktop, we should have seen it long ago.
The architecture of the 8 core CPUs in the Xbox/PS doesn't change anything at all as far as the software being written for multiple cores. They are still 8 core CPUs.

Actually in both consoles one (or was it two?) of the cores are reserved for the OS anyways. And you also can't expect developers to be able to perfectly thread out a game, there will be limiting factors. Nevertheless, 6 core cpus do have advantages over 4 these days. I think it's in line with console core counts, considering other factors.
 
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LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
Actually in both consoles one (or was it two?) of the cores are reserved for the OS anyways. And you also can't expect developers to be able to perfectly thread out a game, there will be limiting factors. Nevertheless, 6 core cpus do have advantages over 4 these days. I think it's in line with console core counts, considering other factors.
I never heard of 2 cores being reserved for the OS. How do you do that?

Here is a blurb on what the XBOX has in it currently:
https://www.anandtech.com/show/11992/the-xbox-one-x-review/3
 

Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
805
1,394
136
Rumours say there will be roughly a 10% IPC uplift which would give AMD a parity in games.

As posted in another thread, today's rumour from Bits-And-Chips is 13% in scientific workloads:

"Zen+ -> Zen2: +13% IPC (Average) in scientific tasks. Not bad. P.S. No gaming data, atm."

https://mobile.twitter.com/BitsAndChipsEng/status/1052194745647165441

How much was i9-9900K ahead of the Ryzen 2700X in the revised PT study again? I've seen various numbers quoted. But let's say 16%, including outliers such as the primordial CS:GO title. Assuming Ryzen 3000 has 13% IPC uplift and a mere 10% frequency uplift, we're at 24% uplift total (1.13 * 1.10 = 1.243), putting it well ahead of i9-9900K — more so, if you eliminate outliers.

This sounds reasonable. So why do so many here expect so little of AMD? 50% of those voting so far trust Intel to retain or regain the lead, and of those of you who voted "no" and have put your thoughts into a post, most of you doubt Zen 2 will even catch up with i9-9900K. I thought most of the doubters would concede that Zen 2 would probably leap ahead, but that Intel would come back next autumn with a rabbit out of the hat. But I am surprised to see that AMD mindshare is even lower than that.

Come on! Let's expect something from AMD! Not even matching a 14nm Skylake-derivative by 2019 would be a resounding failure of planning and execution. If so, AMD would be doomed hadn't Intel stumbled with 10nm. Clearly, it would have been a downright folly of AMD CEO Lisa Su to embark on head-to-head competition with Intel in high-performance x86, if she thought they could only target Skylake performance by 2018-2019, when Intel roadmaps showed 10nm and Ice Lake in the same timeframe. That does not make any sense. She must have been confident about competing against a well-performing 10nm Ice Lake by now, for her to decide to squarely focus on high-performance x86 again.

Note that her laser focus included dropping (or parking) many projects, including K12, Jim Keller's custom ARM core, along with Rory Read's entire ambidextrous strategy with ARM, which was devised to shield AMD somewhat from direct Intel competition by spearheading a new niche — Lisa Su threw all that out and said "brush up and let's go fight Intel again at the x86 high end".

Do you simply think she's just overly confident and will fall short?
 

DisarmedDespot

Senior member
Jun 2, 2016
589
588
136
Do you simply think she's just overly confident and will fall short?
Lisa Su's career won't depend on beating the i9-9900k in gaming benchmarks, and I say that as someone who happily upgraded to a 2700 last week. They're coming from both an IPC and clockspeed deficit. There's no guarantee they'll surpass Intel's mainstream halo product in a workload it's historically done better in. AMD doesn't need to smash Intel into the dust, they need to offer a compelling product and so far they've done that.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
As posted in another thread, today's rumour from Bits-And-Chips is 13% in scientific workloads:

"Zen+ -> Zen2: +13% IPC (Average) in scientific tasks. Not bad. P.S. No gaming data, atm."

https://mobile.twitter.com/BitsAndChipsEng/status/1052194745647165441

How much was i9-9900K ahead of the Ryzen 2700X in the revised PT study again? I've seen various numbers quoted. But let's say 16%, including outliers such as the primordial CS:GO title. Assuming Ryzen 3000 has 13% IPC uplift and a mere 10% frequency uplift, we're at 24% uplift total (1.13 * 1.10 = 1.243), putting it well ahead of i9-9900K — more so, if you eliminate outliers.

This sounds reasonable. So why do so many here expect so little of AMD? 50% of those voting so far trust Intel to retain or regain the lead, and of those of you who voted "no" and have put your thoughts into a post, most of you doubt Zen 2 will even catch up with i9-9900K. I thought most of the doubters would concede that Zen 2 would probably leap ahead, but that Intel would come back next autumn with a rabbit out of the hat. But I am surprised to see that AMD mindshare is even lower than that.

Come on! Let's expect something from AMD! Not even matching a 14nm Skylake-derivative by 2019 would be a resounding failure of planning and execution. If so, AMD would be doomed hadn't Intel stumbled with 10nm. Clearly, it would have been a downright folly of AMD CEO Lisa Su to embark on head-to-head competition with Intel in high-performance x86, if she thought they could only target Skylake performance by 2018-2019, when Intel roadmaps showed 10nm and Ice Lake in the same timeframe. That does not make any sense. She must have been confident about competing against a well-performing 10nm Ice Lake by now, for her to decide to squarely focus on high-performance x86 again.

Note that her laser focus included dropping (or parking) many projects, including K12, Jim Keller's custom ARM core, along with Rory Read's entire ambidextrous strategy with ARM, which was devised to shield AMD somewhat from direct Intel competition by spearheading a new niche — Lisa Su threw all that out and said "brush up and let's go fight Intel again at the x86 high end".

Do you simply think she's just overly confident and will fall short?
A lot of "arguments" are faith based. We'll see soon enough.
 
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ozzy702

Golden Member
Nov 1, 2011
1,151
530
136
Will Zen2 really hit 5ghz though? That's really Intel's big advantage right now. I see a bunch of people in this thread claiming it's a foregone conclusion but is there data to support that conclusion?
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
1,142
927
136
As posted in another thread, today's rumour from Bits-And-Chips is 13% in scientific workloads:

"Zen+ -> Zen2: +13% IPC (Average) in scientific tasks. Not bad. P.S. No gaming data, atm."

https://mobile.twitter.com/BitsAndChipsEng/status/1052194745647165441

How much was i9-9900K ahead of the Ryzen 2700X in the revised PT study again? I've seen various numbers quoted. But let's say 16%, including outliers such as the primordial CS:GO title. Assuming Ryzen 3000 has 13% IPC uplift and a mere 10% frequency uplift, we're at 24% uplift total (1.13 * 1.10 = 1.243), putting it well ahead of i9-9900K — more so, if you eliminate outliers.

This sounds reasonable. So why do so many here expect so little of AMD? 50% of those voting so far trust Intel to retain or regain the lead, and of those of you who voted "no" and have put your thoughts into a post, most of you doubt Zen 2 will even catch up with i9-9900K. I thought most of the doubters would concede that Zen 2 would probably leap ahead, but that Intel would come back next autumn with a rabbit out of the hat. But I am surprised to see that AMD mindshare is even lower than that.

Come on! Let's expect something from AMD! Not even matching a 14nm Skylake-derivative by 2019 would be a resounding failure of planning and execution. If so, AMD would be doomed hadn't Intel stumbled with 10nm. Clearly, it would have been a downright folly of AMD CEO Lisa Su to embark on head-to-head competition with Intel in high-performance x86, if she thought they could only target Skylake performance by 2018-2019, when Intel roadmaps showed 10nm and Ice Lake in the same timeframe. That does not make any sense. She must have been confident about competing against a well-performing 10nm Ice Lake by now, for her to decide to squarely focus on high-performance x86 again.

Note that her laser focus included dropping (or parking) many projects, including K12, Jim Keller's custom ARM core, along with Rory Read's entire ambidextrous strategy with ARM, which was devised to shield AMD somewhat from direct Intel competition by spearheading a new niche — Lisa Su threw all that out and said "brush up and let's go fight Intel again at the x86 high end".

Do you simply think she's just overly confident and will fall short?

Your calculations are seriously flawed because gaming performance isn't a linear extrapolation of clockspeed * IPC. Gaming isn't Cinebench, the framerates (especially avgs) are still largely determined by the choice of GPU as much as the CPU, because no benchmark run is ever 100% CPU bound, not even with a 2080 Ti at 1080P.

Going by your logic a 2700X already matches a 9900K per clock in gaming - it's 16% behind but is also clocked 16% lower. By your logic if a 2700X could hypothetically overclock to 4.7GHz then it would be the equal of a 9900K?

When in reality a 2700X needs a 10% clockspeed advantage just to draw level with a 3.8GHz i5 8400.

That's how far behind AMD is coming from. You're expecting AMD to go from sub i5 8400 level to beating a 9900K in a single uarch / node refresh. Not saying its impossible, but I consider it unlikely. As I said in my earlier post, I think Zen 3 will be when AMD can realistically look to better a 9900K in gaming. Whether that means they will be in the outright lead depends on how much Intels 10nm process and Icelake uarch can improve on the 9900K.

Anyway, since this is a prediction thread, I'll throw mine out there - unless Zen 2 can clock at 5GHz+ like a 9900K, I don't think it will match it, let alone beat it, in gaming. Increasing IPC is only half the equation. I think matching a stock 8700K would be a more realistic outcome.
 
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Abwx

Lifer
Apr 2, 2011
11,168
3,862
136
That article was just an AMD ad, though.

What about the substance, i mean, do you have any argument and info that point this AMD rep as being inaccurate, that is, that they designed Zen 2 with SKL, instead of ICL, as target..?..


Zen+ perf/clock improvement was 3% for IPC and 5% for games, we can extrapolate with this basis for Zen+ vs Zen 2.

If the numbers that float around are on point then we can expect that said ~13% better perf/clock in applications to be enough for something like 20% better perfs/clock in games, this would be in line with Lisa Su s statement that Zen 2 would be "much better" for games...
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
1,142
927
136
What about the substance, i mean, do you have any argument and info that point this AMD rep as being inaccurate, that is, that they designed Zen 2 with SKL, instead of ICL, as target..?..


Zen+ perf/clock improvement was 3% for IPC and 5% for games, we can extrapolate with this basis for Zen+ vs Zen 2.

If the numbers that float around are on point then we can expect that said ~13% better perf/clock in applications to be enough for something like 20% better perfs/clock in games, this would be in line with Lisa Su s statement that Zen 2 would be "much better" for games...

That's a huge leap, expecting a 20% increase per clock in gaming. We will see in 6 months

I hope you are right, but I doubt you will be. Happy to eat my words when Zen 2 launches and it is a killer gaming CPU as you predict.
 
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LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
What about the substance, i mean, do you have any argument and info that point this AMD rep as being inaccurate, that is, that they designed Zen 2 with SKL, instead of ICL, as target..?..


Zen+ perf/clock improvement was 3% for IPC and 5% for games, we can extrapolate with this basis for Zen+ vs Zen 2.

If the numbers that float around are on point then we can expect that said ~13% better perf/clock in applications to be enough for something like 20% better perfs/clock in games, this would be in line with Lisa Su s statement that Zen 2 would be "much better" for games...
When I see "sponsored content", I don't see any point in continuing. When I look at other AMD articles from the guy and see "sponsored content" again, I give up.
I do give him credit for announcing it clearly.
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,948
1,640
136
Will Zen2 really hit 5ghz though? That's really Intel's big advantage right now. I see a bunch of people in this thread claiming it's a foregone conclusion but is there data to support that conclusion?
Maybe with good cooling? I doubt though that Intel's 10nm will hit 5Ghz any time soon.
 

ozzy702

Golden Member
Nov 1, 2011
1,151
530
136
Maybe with good cooling? I doubt though that Intel's 10nm will hit 5Ghz any time soon.

It doesn't need to at the moment. 14++++++++++++ will do 5ghz all day, every day, just with increased power consumption. AMD currently has a wall that no amount of 24/7 cooling and voltage will overcome that's preventing parity. 7nm should improve the standings but will it get to 5ghz? I doubt it will, and I don't think Intel is going to lose their gaming crown anytime soon.

That said, AMD is curb stomping Intel on performance per dollar and Zen 2 should be close enough (within 5-7% for gaming when both are using ideal RAM and cooling) that they'll gobble up massive marketshare.
 
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Zucker2k

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2006
1,810
1,159
136
My opinion as to why Zen 2 won't hit 5GHz:
1. Fresh TSMC 7nm process.
2. Precedent. Has a TSMC process ever hit 5GHz before? Ever?
3. Is AMD going to be able to successfully marry the zen 2 arch with this fresh TSMC process to produce a 5GHz-capable chip out of the gates?
4. A process shrink means smaller cooling surface area. High frequency and voltage will mean concentration of heat in a reduced core area which will need to be moved as quickly as possible. This will pose its own challenges.
5. Is there any other process out there, besides Intel's, that's consistently hitting 5GHz on air cooling?
 

Ottonomous

Senior member
May 15, 2014
559
292
136

Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
1,710
3,927
136
My opinion as to why Zen 2 won't hit 5GHz:
1. Fresh TSMC 7nm process.
2. Precedent. Has a TSMC process ever hit 5GHz before? Ever?
3. Is AMD going to be able to successfully marry the zen 2 arch with this fresh TSMC process to produce a 5GHz-capable chip out of the gates?
4. A process shrink means smaller cooling surface area. High frequency and voltage will mean concentration of heat in a reduced core area which will need to be moved as quickly as possible. This will pose its own challenges.
5. Is there any other process out there, besides Intel's, that's consistently hitting 5GHz on air cooling?
Let's not forget unprecedented problems surfacing when designing chips for 7nm. Problems magnified horribly by additional voltage (required for super-high clock speeds)

I agree, that extrapolating 13% IPC increase as a similar increase in gaming per-clock is absurdly optimistic. However AMD has another avenue to improve Gaming performance - the memory latency. Zen+ shaved some 7-8ns off of it, and it helped significantly. If they mangage to reach Intel levels with zen2, get the said IPC uplift and all-core turbo up to even just 4.2-4.3 GHz range, they might very well be just a few precent off from the 9900K, probably even winning some benchmarks.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
Its common knowledge that 1 CPU core is preserved for the OS, Sony had 2 but enabled a seventh core through a patch.

You really think they wouldn't do this to enable seamless transitions between the OS/game and streaming?
No idea. Never heard it before. Haven't used a console in a very long time.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,802
11,157
136
Will Zen2 really hit 5ghz though?

No. With GF's 7nm HP process, it might have been possible. On TSMC's 7nm, I expect 4.5-4.6 GHz. Early leaks suggest at least one SKU will have 4.5 GHz boost clocks. So getting all-core operation at that speed should be possible with sufficient cooling (not counting exotic cooling).,

My opinion as to why Zen 2 won't hit 5GHz:
1. Fresh TSMC 7nm process.

Not trying to nitpick here, but . . . what's the word "fresh" mean in this context? TSMC is already shipping 7nm products. Hell AMD is using Vega20 as a pipecleaner for their own designs on TSMC 7nm. It's not like Matisse in particular will be running on a brand-spankin-new-never-before-seen process. There were more unknowns with Zen on GF 14nm LPP.
 

LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
Intel has not needed more cores, or higher clocks, or increased IPC for the last several years. They have been able to doze off for a while.

Recently they have been seen standing on the corner, leaning on a post.

Now that they have some competition, we may well see them get back in the shop.
 

Despoiler

Golden Member
Nov 10, 2007
1,966
770
136
I'm just going to throw this out there that AMD is already winning, but not for the reasons in the poll. Core count and clock speeds are not the true game being played here. Everything that AMD is doing with CCX is ahead of the curve that Intel hasn't started navigating yet. The curve is the reality of the cost of manufacturing to get to smaller nodes. It's progressively more expensive and you need to have good yields from the start to be able to hit your profit margins. CCX is how you do that. Right now AMD can make chips that are 90% of Intel perf and offer them from launch at 25-40% cheaper than Intel can and STILL make money hand over fist because their yields are so good. That's game. 2700x is their top chip, but it's the most mainstream and it's cheap to manufacture. The 9900k is more expensive to make so it has to be a halo product which in turn means sales volume will be lower. Intel cannot compete on price because of their monolithic dies. AMD is winning because Intel is chasing their strategy. Everything Intel has done since Ryzen launched, in terms of product segmentation, has been reactionary. AMD beating Intel to a new node just compounds the issues Intel faces.
 

rbk123

Senior member
Aug 22, 2006
745
348
136
My opinion as to why Zen 2 won't hit 5GHz:
1. Fresh TSMC 7nm process.
2. Precedent. Has a TSMC process ever hit 5GHz before? Ever?
3. Is AMD going to be able to successfully marry the zen 2 arch with this fresh TSMC process to produce a 5GHz-capable chip out of the gates?
4. A process shrink means smaller cooling surface area. High frequency and voltage will mean concentration of heat in a reduced core area which will need to be moved as quickly as possible. This will pose its own challenges.
5. Is there any other process out there, besides Intel's, that's consistently hitting 5GHz on air cooling?
+1. All excellent points. It's possible AMD can hit 5Ghz but I doubt they will for those same reasons. They'd break the Internet if they pulled it off, though.
 
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french toast

Senior member
Feb 22, 2017
988
825
136
I think AMD has already paid the performance penalties for scalable interconnect and security (already baked in).
They have also remained competitive on a mediocre low power process.

Intel is going to have to pay those penalties, at least two of them with the process side up in the air.
My hunch is the tsmc process is not going to allow AMD to overtake Intel in gaming, but get close enough for it to not matter.
Meanwhile Intel is a mile behind in graphics, by end of 2019 it may be possible for a zen 2 + Navi + 4x 32bit lpddr5 mainstream APU.

15w Icelake U won't compete with that.
 
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