Speculation: i9-9900K is Intel's last hurrah in gaming

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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
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The 2600X is 16.4% behind the 8700K in the link you posted, but if it was clocked at 4.3 all cores and 4.7 single core boost it would still be 16-17% behind , that is at a 16-17% deficit...?.

I think we're looking at the % in a different way. You're looking at it from how far behind AMD is from Intel, whereas I'm looking at it the same way TPU is calculating it, with the 8700K 19.6% ahead at 4.3GHz. Hope that clears things up.

So if you overclocked the 2600X to 4.3GHz, the margin to the 8700K should be 16 - 17%.
 

Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
805
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We'll probably be looking at close to a 20% margin

Well, you have to be careful here. Note that I can run the numbers in the other direction as well, if I want to claim that the Intel gaming IPC advantage is overstated. For example, with 28% of the frame time GPU-bound, I still arrive at the 16% Intel advantage shown by the PT study — but this time with only 5% gaming IPC advantage to Intel.

Frequency advantage for Intel: 16%
Gaming IPC advantage for Intel: 5%
Gaming IPS advantage for Intel: 22%

Intel frame time: 10.0 ms 100%
GPU-bound part of frame time: 2.8 ms 28%
CPU-bound part of frame time: 7.2 ms 72%

AMD frame time: 11.6 ms 100%
GPU-bound part of frame time: 2.8 ms 24%
CPU-bound part of frame time: 8.8 ms 76%

Frame rate for Intel: 100 fps 100%
Frame rate for AMD: 86 fps 86%

Benchmark lead for Intel: 16%
Benchmark loss for AMD: 14%

(Bold numbers estimated/arbitrary, the rest calculated.)

If we could eliminate frequency from the equation, we would get a lower bound on the IPC advantage. So if we could rerun the PT benchmarks at a fixed 4.3 GHz say, and the result now showed a 13% win for Intel, we could claim that the IPC advantage must be at least 13%. Then, to deduce the GPU-bound proportion of the benchmark, we could run the benchmarks with i9-9900K at multiple fixed frequencies to reconstruct the asymptotic curve of frame time over CPU frequency, and hence deduce the GPU-bound portion of the frame time (which would be the lower limit approached as frequency increase). From that we could then estimate the gaming IPC advantage.
 

epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
1,142
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Well, you have to be careful here. Note that I can run the numbers in the other direction as well, if I want to claim that the Intel gaming IPC advantage is overstated. For example, with 28% of the frame time GPU-bound, I still arrive at the 16% Intel advantage shown by the PT study — but this time with only 5% gaming IPC advantage to Intel.

Frequency advantage for Intel: 16%
Gaming IPC advantage for Intel: 5%
Gaming IPS advantage for Intel: 22%

Intel frame time: 10.0 ms 100%
GPU-bound part of frame time: 2.8 ms 28%
CPU-bound part of frame time: 7.2 ms 72%

AMD frame time: 11.6 ms 100%
GPU-bound part of frame time: 2.8 ms 24%
CPU-bound part of frame time: 8.8 ms 76%

Frame rate for Intel: 100 fps 100%
Frame rate for AMD: 86 fps 86%

Benchmark lead for Intel: 16%
Benchmark loss for AMD: 14%

(Bold numbers estimated/arbitrary, the rest calculated.)

If we could eliminate frequency from the equation, we would get a lower bound on the IPC advantage. So if we could rerun the PT benchmarks at a fixed 4.3 GHz say, and the result now showed a 13% win for Intel, we could claim that the IPC advantage must be at least 13%. Then, to deduce the GPU-bound proportion of the benchmark, we could run the benchmarks with i9-9900K at multiple fixed frequencies to reconstruct the asymptotic curve of frame time over CPU frequency, and hence deduce the GPU-bound portion of the frame time (which would be the lower limit approached as frequency increase). From that we could then estimate the gaming IPC advantage.

You don't expect a 9900K to have a bigger lead at 1080P with a 2080 Ti than a 1080 Ti?!

The % of GPU bound frames will be reduced, which means the % of CPU bound frames increases. Which equates to a bigger overall lead for the 9900K as it is the faster CPU.

Would you expect a 9900K to have a bigger lead if PT had tested at 720P instead of 1080P?

By the same token, keeping the same resolution but using a much more powerful GPU has the same overall effect - that is increasing the % of CPU bound frames. The faster CPU is always further advantaged in this scenario.
 
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Vattila

Senior member
Oct 22, 2004
805
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You don't expect a 9900K to have a bigger lead at 1080P with a 2080 Ti than a 1080 Ti?!

I wasn't commenting on any particular result — I was just afraid that you were mislead by my post, which demonstrated how to overestimate the IPC lead. I've edited the post to make it clear that you can also underestimate.

PS. I of course agree that with lower GPU-bound part of the frame time, the lead for the faster CPU will get closer and closer to the true IPS lead. Sorry for the confusion.
 
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Aug 11, 2008
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The 2600X is 16.4% behind the 8700K in the link you posted, but if it was clocked at 4.3 all cores and 4.7 single core boost it would still be 16-17% behind , that is at a 16-17% deficit...?.
Look at the 8400 (3.8 ghz all core turbo) vs the 2600x overclocked to 4.1. The lead is 11% at 7% clockspeed deficit, assuming the 8400 maintains full core turbo. So adding those together gives an 18% lead for the 8400.
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
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I wasn't commenting on any particular result — I was just afraid that you were mislead by my post, which demonstrated how to overestimate the IPC lead. I've edited the post to make it clear that you can also underestimate.

PS. I of course agree that with lower GPU-bound part of the frame time, the lead for the faster CPU will grow asymptotically towards the IPC lead. Sorry for the confusion.

I understand. There is actually a good way to test 'absolute' gaming IPC - by running a 2080 Ti at 720P. Even this wont be 100% CPU bound, but it's close enough.

This testing methodology will be ridiculed by most as 'unrealistic' but if you wanted to accurately measure just how fast these competing uarchs can run game code, this is the way.

I think such a test will show Coffee Lake to be approx 20% faster than Zen+ per clock.

Which brings us back to the OP about AMD usurping the 9900K at gaming - we are talking about a 20% IPC uplift in gaming plus 5GHz just to draw level. I don't expect Zen 2 to get over 5GHz, which leaves the 'gaming IPC' as the other factor that can be improved to beat a 9900K. Can AMD really do 20%+ IPC from Zen+ to Zen 2? I have serious doubts, in fact I think it's close to impossible, has a uarch refresh EVER added 20% to gaming?! I cant think of any. AMD would be breaking new ground here if they were to pull it off.

IIRC Athlon XP (K7) to Athlon 64 (K8) achieved a similar uplift in gaming, but that was a major uarch overhaul, plus the IMC on A64 drastically improved memory latency which allowed such a large improvement in gaming performance.
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
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I should also mention that 'gaming IPC' is just an estimate because the choice of games greatly influences the result of such a metric.

Its probably easy to 'cherry pick' games that shows Intel to be 30% ahead per clock, and perhaps just as easy to hand pick games that shows AMD to have minimal deficit per clock.
 
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beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
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Which brings us back to the OP about AMD usurping the 9900K at gaming - we are talking about a 20% IPC uplift in gaming plus 5GHz just to draw level. I don't expect Zen 2 to get over 5GHz, which leaves the 'gaming IPC' as the other factor that can be improved to beat a 9900K. Can AMD really do 20%+ IPC from Zen+ to Zen 2? I have serious doubts, in fact I think it's close to impossible, has a uarch refresh EVER added 20% to gaming?! I cant think of any. AMD would be breaking new ground here if they were to pull it off.

Agree but it doesn't matter much. The mentioned 13% IPC + a 4.5 ghz turbo would probably be good enough. It's on 7nm and no iGPU. The die will be much smaller than intel 9900k while intel has issues with supply due to more cores and probably the iPhone modem. AMD might be a tad slower but the will easily win this as always on price and this round around probably also efficiency.
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
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Agree but it doesn't matter much. The mentioned 13% IPC + a 4.5 ghz turbo would probably be good enough. It's on 7nm and no iGPU. The die will be much smaller than intel 9900k while intel has issues with supply due to more cores and probably the iPhone modem. AMD might be a tad slower but the will easily win this as always on price and this round around probably also efficiency.

I agree, a significant IPC uplift plus higher clocks would leave AMD within touching distance of CFL gaming wise.

AMD will compete on price as you said, but by the same token, we shouldnt forget that Intel has much cheaper SKUs that are still good gaming CPUs - I'm talking about i5 8400/8500 tier CPUs which still beats AMDs best Zen+ chips at purely gaming. Let's not pretend the 9900K is the only choice for Intel here.

Where AMD has a big price/performance advantage is in highly threaded apps, but that is a completely different discussion to the gaming focus we have in this thread.
 
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coercitiv

Diamond Member
Jan 24, 2014
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The mentioned 13% IPC + a 4.5 ghz turbo would probably be good enough.
Actually, even a combo of 5% IPC and 10% frequency would be enough for 3000 series to look very competitive in reviews, and these gains are rather conservative. Sure, we'll still have people staring at 480p 3080Ti benchmarks to highlight that 10% Intel lead, but the market simply won't care anymore. In terms of value over time the 9900K is Achilles with RGB led lighting on his ankle: it will likely be demolished in price/perf by Intel themselves, as they respond to the 3000 series launch.

Unless AMD made some outstanding mistake in Zen 2, next year will be a very good year for buying CPUs, from either AMD or Intel.
 

TheGiant

Senior member
Jun 12, 2017
748
353
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In conclusion, without knowing the GPU-bound part of the frame time, IPC can not be deduced.

Sure, that is where you see the biggest difference. But even with generally GPU bound game there are passages which are completely CPU bound.
Practically.
In 2015 I had a old PC (I had a good one in work) with C2D e6300@3,16GHz from 2006 with 8GB DDR2-800 slightly oced to 850 MHz. I had gtx260 GPU which failed so I bought gtx760 in 2014.
In 2015, a game I wanted to play came out- Witcher 3. In 1680x1050 (NEC WGX2Pro IPS panel) it was quite a mess on death march difficulty. The running around and city was ok, but boss/general fights were like 20 fps, unplayable even on low details...
Benchmarks on Core2Quad were about 70-80 fps in medium details 1080p around the web, So I upgraded to c2q 9650 and oced it to 3.9GHz (got a good price 80EUR and I waited for Skylake to come out to buy a new platform).
Fps in fight went up, to like 25-30, nothing special. Average went up massively, much smoother in general areas.
Then I bought new board (asrock extreme4 z170, 32GB DDR4 2666- needed that as a replacement for current work CFD precalc machine and i5-6600K, which I oced to 4,4GHz). Average FPS went up a little (10 fps up, GPU bound), but fights with the same GTX760 went up from 25 to 70-80 fps. Finally the death march difficulty was playable and the game enjoyable.
The web reviews didn't show that massive difference at all. It was like 30-40% upgrade, which is a lot, but not 300% upgrade I experienced in the critical CPU intensive scenes- boss/fights where I needed the fps as high as possible.
If you asked around the web for upgrade for my system, pretty much 90% of the people recommended upgrade the gtx760, that the low low end for such a demanding game like wither 3. But that wasn't the case.
I am not saying that is the case with ryzen vs cores now, but I am saying that the average benchmarking can be very misleading.
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
1,142
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Actually, even a combo of 5% IPC and 10% frequency would be enough for 3000 series to look very competitive in reviews, and these gains are rather conservative. Sure, we'll still have people staring at 480p 3080Ti benchmarks to highlight that 10% Intel lead, but the market simply won't care anymore. In terms of value over time the 9900K is Achilles with RGB led lighting on his ankle: it will likely be demolished in price/perf by Intel themselves, as they respond to the 3000 series launch.

Unless AMD made some outstanding mistake in Zen 2, next year will be a very good year for buying CPUs, from either AMD or Intel.

Wouldn't you say we are already there in terms of AMD being 'close enough' in gaming? A 2700X is within 10% of a 8700K at 1080P. The 9900K will extend that lead a bit but at a signicantly higher cost. Zen 2 will reduce that margin back under 10% (or even beat a 9900K according to some people in this thread and 44% who voted in the poll )

Of course future Intel products will beat the 9900K in value - that's called progress.

It'll be pretty damn disappointing if future Intel Icelake 8C/16T CPUs don't cost well under $500... but for the next 6 months at least the 9900K will be the undisputed king of desktop CPUs and Intel has decided, rightly or wrongly, to cash in on that. The market will ultimately decide whether that was a good decision or not.
 
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epsilon84

Golden Member
Aug 29, 2010
1,142
927
136
Sure, that is where you see the biggest difference. But even with generally GPU bound game there are passages which are completely CPU bound.
Practically.
In 2015 I had a old PC (I had a good one in work) with C2D e6300@3,16GHz from 2006 with 8GB DDR2-800 slightly oced to 850 MHz. I had gtx260 GPU which failed so I bought gtx760 in 2014.
In 2015, a game I wanted to play came out- Witcher 3. In 1680x1050 (NEC WGX2Pro IPS panel) it was quite a mess on death march difficulty. The running around and city was ok, but boss/general fights were like 20 fps, unplayable even on low details...
Benchmarks on Core2Quad were about 70-80 fps in medium details 1080p around the web, So I upgraded to c2q 9650 and oced it to 3.9GHz (got a good price 80EUR and I waited for Skylake to come out to buy a new platform).
Fps in fight went up, to like 25-30, nothing special. Average went up massively, much smoother in general areas.
Then I bought new board (asrock extreme4 z170, 32GB DDR4 2666- needed that as a replacement for current work CFD precalc machine and i5-6600K, which I oced to 4,4GHz). Average FPS went up a little (10 fps up, GPU bound), but fights with the same GTX760 went up from 25 to 70-80 fps. Finally the death march difficulty was playable and the game enjoyable.
The web reviews didn't show that massive difference at all. It was like 30-40% upgrade, which is a lot, but not 300% upgrade I experienced in the critical CPU intensive scenes- boss/fights where I needed the fps as high as possible.
If you asked around the web for upgrade for my system, pretty much 90% of the people recommended upgrade the gtx760, that the low low end for such a demanding game like wither 3. But that wasn't the case.
I am not saying that is the case with ryzen vs cores now, but I am saying that the average benchmarking can be very misleading.

Ryzen doesn't have any inherent weakness in min fps though - for example the 2700X @ 4.2GHz has practically the same min fps / avg fps as the i5 8400. It is simply a slower uarch for gaming, due to IPC and frequency deficits.

Increasing either (or both, as will be the case of Zen 2) will bring AMD closer (or exceed, according to the OP) Intel levels of gaming performance. The big question is just how much of an improvement will we see? Will be it enough to break Intel's stranglehold in gaming, which has existed for over a decade since the launch of Core 2? I doubt it will, but the poll results and certain forum posters show a lot of optimism for AMD, so we will see in 6 months who was 'right'
 
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TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,993
744
126
In conclusion, without knowing the GPU-bound part of the frame time, IPC can not be deduced.
https://www.hardware.fr/articles/965-3/performances-jeux-3d.html
That's why people should look at lower CPUs as well,the hardware.fr bench makes it really easy by showing % between two CPUs.
If you look at the i3-8350k the i5-8400 is ~12% faster and after that the differences are more or less because of the clocks,so the GPU starts to bottleneck at 12% above 4 cores at 4GHz.
On the AMD side the 2600x is almost 40% faster than the 2400g while the difference in cores is 50%,so the GPU starts to bottleneck at -10% of 6c/12t at ... 4Ghz?Can it do 4Ghz all cores for gaming?

I should also mention that 'gaming IPC' is just an estimate because the choice of games greatly influences the result of such a metric.

Its probably easy to 'cherry pick' games that shows Intel to be 30% ahead per clock, and perhaps just as easy to hand pick games that shows AMD to have minimal deficit per clock.
Yup but you look at a lot of benchmarks from different sources and you still find differences from minimal to 30% ahead.
 
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dark zero

Platinum Member
Jun 2, 2015
2,655
138
106
Please stay on topic. If you diverge, try at least to relate it to the discussion. Thanks.
Indeed sir, that was I wanted to say. Intel has already a hard time with AMD, but now they have 3 other more to watch. And fullfil all their disadvantages in order to maintain their leadership is impossible.
 
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LTC8K6

Lifer
Mar 10, 2004
28,520
1,575
126
Cache frequency of the 8700K is 4.4, whereas the 9900K is 4.74 in that XTU screen shot.

"To start, set your uncore to 47 and continue on with the guide."

That instruction is from the GB 9900K overclocking PDF.

It suggests that the 9900K may be overclocked in that XTU screen shot.

But it's hard to say.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,812
11,165
136
Will Zen 2 with a 12% IPC uplift at 4.5ghz best a 9900k at 5.0?

Well um, yes, assuming 12% better IPC translates to 12% higher framerates. Which it may not.

A 4500 MHz Matisse should (per your expectation) perform about the same as a 5040 MHz 2700x. And that's not taking into account that Matisse may sport a better IMC that will improve performance from another angle (assuming that is not already factored into the IPC estimation).

Other sources seem to indicate that Matisse will be 13% (not 12%) faster than Pinnacle Ridge. But that was related to scientific calculations moreso than gaming.
 
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moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
4,994
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BTW, Intel has always clearly stated how they arrive at the published TDP number.

It's only misleading of you don't read what Intel posts.

Click on the ? next to Processor Base Frequency and TDP and Thermal Solution Specification.
https://ark.intel.com/products/186605/Intel-Core-i9-9900K-Processor-16M-Cache-up-to-5-00-GHz-
It's misleading if it isn't grounded in reality. Base frequency has no use case in reality anymore since the CPU tries to drive higher frequencies whenever possible which is essentially always. Compare this to AMD's TDP which for Ryzen 2xxx is a hard upper limit that is always enforced unless deactivated by enabling PBO (Precision Boost Overdrive).
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,993
744
126
2400G: 4MB L3 for 8 threads
2600X: 16MB L3 for 12 threads

People aren't even trying anymore.
So what's your proof that cache has any effect at all on these numbers?I mean these games are all coded for jaguar with zero cache per core...
Also why is the 2400g only ~40% slower with 50% less cores if it's so terribly affected by the cache?

Or are you trying to make some other point here?
 
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