I might be a bit more optimistic than you are ...
Somehow I see there are lots of knobs available to tweak to get more than 15% IPC gain over Navi1x
The rasterization and pixel shading is towards the latter part of the pipeline. If the geometry engine which lots of devs were talking about is as good as what they said, the culling capabilities of RDNA2 could be greatly enhanced. This alone would make a difference in performance improvement.
I snapshotted an interesting comment from Matt...
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VRS + Upgraded Geometry Engine + Bugs from N10 squashed
These alone would bring decent improvements. Granted, for older games might not make as much of a difference.
if you recollect N10 had to do some extra circus working with the LDS because of few bugs, you can see how many extra extra instructions gets generated to skirt this bug. Then I supposed they removed the caveat of having no cache coherency between CUs in a WGP when working in WGP mode which results in a sync to be neccesary thereby losing some cycles too.
At CU level, there is an updated wavefront scheduler in the SIMD and new cache optimization(also evident in the LLVM VGPR allocation).
Then slap in some more cache and more compression and higher BW. Add to that the command processor changes.
Then the ROPs like you said. The ROPs feed off L1 and I imagine they could benefit with more capacity, BW and compression.
Basing off the above points and others which I have missed I believe we could get more than 10-15% IPC over N10.
If you recollect RDNA1's 1.5x perf gain over Vega is achieved with 1.25x IPC and 1.2x clocks. I suppose there will be a similar picture. Since we can't realistically expect Navi2x to hit ~2.4 GHz clocks(1.25% clocks over N10), the perf has to come from IPC. (sidenote, I have seen measurements that actual measurement shows RDNA1 is much more than 1.5x perf per watt than Vega.)
(Unless, if that 2.7+ GHz
leak is true then there is no IPC gain needed at all )
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