Question Speculation: RDNA2 + CDNA Architectures thread

[uzzi38]

All die sizes are within 5mm^2. The poster here has been right on some things in the past afaik, and to his credit was the first to saying 505mm^2 for Navi21, which other people have backed up. Even still though, take the following with a pich of salt.

Navi21 - 505mm^2

Navi22 - 340mm^2

Navi23 - 240mm^2

Source is the following post: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1588075782.A.C1E.html

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

I suppose I Could have explained my reasoning a little better. Some people are being pessimistic because the last five years have been a string of disappointments and people are somewhat stuck in the mindset that AMD tops out around xx70 performance when comparing to NVidia.
.....

I can understand why some people are pessimistic about RDNA2 considering the past, but we know big Navi has 80CU so I find It unreasonable when someone says It will perform between RTX 3060-3070. We know RTX 3090 has "only" 5248 Cuda so RTX 3070 will probably have 3072 Cuda cores and It's not possible that a 5120 core RDNA2 GPU performs the same as Ampere with 3072 cores. Ampere would need to have much better IPC and clockspeed compared to Turing or RDNA1(2) to erase the difference in the number of execution units between Big Navi and RTX3070.

 

[CastleBravo]

Lets assume RTX 3090 is 1399$.
Lets assume it has 375W power draw.

Would anyone be interested in Big Navi if it would offer 95% of its performance but consuming 275W of power? I won't speculate on price, tho.

I learned my lesson to not underestimate the greed of companies. Altho AMD appears to be the cooler company here, pricing RX 5600 XT apropriately...

Is that 95% without ray tracing and DLSS turned on? I don't think that Navi 21 will reach 95% of the 3090 even in that scenario, much less with those features activated. I think Navi 21 will be more of a 3080 competitor, and I also think it will cost less than the 3080 to produce, so AMD should be in a good position to compete on price if they want to, just not with 3090. I will strongly consider buying Navi 21 if it beats the 3080 in non-DLSS titles for slightly less money ($799 or less) and power/heat, but I will get the 3080 if it whoops on a ~$1k Navi in DLSS titles, and I think DLSS is going to get wide support from devs.

 

[uzzi38]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1300468445780213777

Just a little post of interest, though to be honest, I don't think much is being said. It shouldn't be the biggest surprise.

 

[DDH]

Is that 95% without ray tracing and DLSS turned on? I don't think that Navi 21 will reach 95% of the 3090 even in that scenario, much less with those features activated. I think Navi 21 will be more of a 3080 competitor, and I also think it will cost less than the 3080 to produce, so AMD should be in a good position to compete on price if they want to, just not with 3090.

Let's say 95% of standard rasterising performance. That would be a massive, massive win for AMD if true. I suspect rt performance probably won't be as quick as NV with dedicated hardware, but I do think AMD will have a similar option like dlss at some stage in the future if not for launch. Price will probably be 80 - 85% of 3090. Will use less power too

The forum battlegrounds will dramatically switch from NV fanboys calling amd late, hot, loud, to doesn't can't match the 3090 with dlss and RT enabled. While AMD fanboys get to meme about Fermi 2.0.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk

 

[Geranium]

Lets assume RTX 3090 is 1399$.
Lets assume it has 375W power draw.

Would anyone be interested in Big Navi if it would offer 95% of its performance but consuming 275W of power? I won't speculate on price, tho.

No. The only reason people want competitive AMD GPU is that they can buy Nvidia GPU cheaper. The consumer has no interest buying AMD gpu even it is better and cheaper. It is the same reason why we dont got any 50-60CU RDNA1 GPU, cant sell enough to recoup R&D cost for that GPU die.

 

[Geranium]

There was typically a bunch of AMD marketing hype during those as well, which was often misleading. Thus far, AMD has been silent. Even on the leak side of things there has not been much in comparison to nVidia.

Were those hype created by AMD or some leaker/websites?

 

[CastleBravo]

Let's say 95% of standard rasterising performance. That would be a massive, massive win for AMD if true. I suspect rt performance probably won't be as quick as NV with dedicated hardware, but I do think AMD will have a similar option like dlss at some stage in the future if not for launch. Price will probably be 80 - 85% of 3090. Will use less power too

The forum battlegrounds will dramatically switch from NV fanboys calling amd late, hot, loud, to doesn't can't match the 3090 with dlss and RT enabled. While AMD fanboys get to meme about Fermi 2.0.

Sent from my SM-N975F using Tapatalk

Even in the unlikely scenario of Navi 21 having 95% of the 3090's standard rasterising performance, the 3080 will likely beat it when ray tracing and DLSS are turned on. I don't see AMD charging $200-300 more than the 3080 for worse performance in many games. IMO, this best case scenario means AMD gets to charge the same as the 3080. In the more likely scenario of Navi 21 being maybe ~10% above the 3080 in some games, but getting blown away when DLSS is on, AMD will have to price under the 3080. This shouldn't be an issue for AMD since Navi 21 is supposedly a much smaller die, doesn't have bleeding edge GDDR6X memory, and won't need an expensive cooling solution.

 

[Geranium]

Even in the unlikely scenario of Navi 21 having 95% of the 3090's standard rasterising performance, the 3080 will likely beat it when ray tracing and DLSS are turned on. I don't see AMD charging $200-300 more than the 3080 for worse performance in many games. IMO, this best case scenario means AMD gets to charge the same as the 3080. In the more likely scenario of Navi 21 being maybe ~10% above the 3080 in some games, but getting blown away when DLSS is on, AMD will have to price under the 3080. This shouldn't be an issue for AMD since Navi 21 is supposedly a much smaller die, doesn't have bleeding edge GDDR6X memory, and won't need an expensive cooling solution.

When did PCMasterRace become PC-Beggar-Race??
PC hardware become so lowpowered that it need console like scaling for playing game at high resolution.

 

[Panino Manino]

Too late, there is no too late, never will be. Intel hasn't made discrete GPUs before but they are now entering the market, are they too late?

Too late, should AMD just surrender the GPU business and let NVIDIA have a total monopoly?

Too late is something someone says to help validate their position that NVIDIA are untouchable, to help validate their purchasing decisions.

4 years ago AMD were too late in the cpu market too

I hope, I just don't want to dream.
I'm not saying that AMD should give up, just that I'm not seeing they achieving parity any time soon. Surpass? Maybe never again.

Think about that, about the CPUs.
Yes, Zen was good, Zen 2 was even better. It's very probable that AMD will keep the momentum and Zen 3 and 4 will be equally as good, but... what if Intel didn't had the fab problems? What if Intel had managed to manufacture CPUs with their newer arch without problem? How would Zen 2 be in the market today if it had to compete seriously with Sunny and Willow Cove on a working 10nm? RTG is stretched too thin and Nvidia if they have any problems are just minor problems.
The most that AMD/RTG can do is try to not get too far behind.

Not that I believe that you will ever need more than a 5600XT to play games, but a lot of people care for more.

 

[Stuka87]

Were those hype created by AMD or some leaker/websites?

AMD themselves were directly responsible in several cases (eg, 'Poor Volta' marketing). And "leaks" are more often than not leaked on purpose by the companies in order to generate hype or manipulate expectations in one way or the other.

 

[MrTeal]

AMD is in an unwinnable situation here, really. While it won't be universal, there will be a lot of press that will be comparing framerates at 4k with DLSS on for Nvidia GPUs vs 4k on the AMD side. The nvidia reviewers guide will surely push the comparisons that put their GPUs in the best light, and they certainly haven't been shy in the past about using their developer relations to grind AMD performance into the ground creating the world's most detailed jersey barriers. RDNA 2 is going to have to be pretty spectacular to really push back against Ampere.

 

[Geranium]

AMD themselves were directly responsible in several cases (eg, 'Poor Volta' marketing). And "leaks" are more often than not leaked on purpose by the companies in order to generate hype or manipulate expectations in one way or the other.

Oh.
I thought that 'Poor Volta' marketing was created by some hyper/leaker. Though nowdays AMD is very cautious about leak or hype.

 

[exquisitechar]

I think one of the biggest problems for AMD is that they might be late again. Not so much with Navi21, but the lower parts of the product stack. RTX 3070 is rumored to be released in September and it will likely have no competition for months.

Yes, Zen was good, Zen 2 was even better. It's very probable that AMD will keep the momentum and Zen 3 and 4 will be equally as good, but... what if Intel didn't had the fab problems? What if Intel had managed to manufacture CPUs with their newer arch without problem? How would Zen 2 be in the market today if it had to compete seriously with Sunny and Willow Cove on a working 10nm?

Zen 3 will be better than Willow Cove so AMD would do just fine. It just would have taken them longer to become competitive and surpass Intel. Also, Nvidia clearly has more than minor problems with gaming Ampere. It's really not looking good, if they weren't so far ahead to begin with they'd be in a bad situation.

AMD is bound to surpass NV with RDNA3.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

AMD is in an unwinnable situation here, really. While it won't be universal, there will be a lot of press that will be comparing framerates at 4k with DLSS on for Nvidia GPUs vs 4k on the AMD side. The nvidia reviewers guide will surely push the comparisons that put their GPUs in the best light, and they certainly haven't been shy in the past about using their developer relations to grind AMD performance into the ground creating the world's most detailed jersey barriers. RDNA 2 is going to have to be pretty spectacular to really push back against Ampere.

So the comparison will be 4K on AMD and WQHD or FullHD with DLSS on Nvidia? That's not apples to apples comparison.
The reputable sites will test DLSS quality and performance for sure, but It's not like they will test only with DLSS and ignore the standard comparison between them in different resolutions. Btw I believe AMD will have a similar technology, which would be useful for consoles.

 

[uzzi38]

AMD will have a similar tech, but not so sure if it will be so soon. I would be pleasantly surprised, but not expecting it.

That being said, with the number of gsmes that support DLSS 2.0 currently, I don't expect AMD need to prioritise getting their own version out for Navi21 launch. I'm personally of the belief that it's still limited to just a few games, and so not quite essential for the time being.

But it's something they really should be focusing on for the software side. I'm probably in the minority when I say I think the driver side will be fine this launch... but that's why the focus needs to be on other software now.

They really need to ramp up on software teams though, they're trying to fight way too many battles at the same time.

 

[Kenmitch]

Were those hype created by AMD or some leaker/websites?

My guess it was Raja's doing. He liked to toot his horn, but sadly just like Squidward he couldn't carry a toon.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Considering they will have RDNA2 in consoles I don't think they can neglect the drivers and have problems like they had with RDNA1.

 

[uzzi38]

Considering they will have RDNA2 in consoles I don't think they can neglect the drivers and have problems like they had with RDNA1.

They didn't even neglect the drivers with RDNA1. The launch was a mess for multiple reasons, not all of them even the drivers.

There's a reason there's a second Navi10 stepping

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

RDNA1 had problems and still has, whether It's because of drivers or something else is not that important in my opinion.
I didn't know there is a new stepping for Navi10.
BTW I have to wonder when AMD finally fixes the high power consumption using two monitors, because this was not fixed for many years and It doesn't make a good impression.

 

[Krteq]

There's a reason there's a second Navi10 stepping

Hmmm, I don't know about another Navi10 stepping. Can you please be more specific?

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

Yep, first time I heard It.

 

[kurosaki]

So the comparison will be 4K on AMD and WQHD or FullHD with DLSS on Nvidia? That's not apples to apples comparison.
The reputable sites will test DLSS quality and performance for sure, but It's not like they will test only with DLSS and ignore the standard comparison between them in different resolutions. Btw I believe AMD will have a similar technology, which would be useful for consoles.

It's pure marketing gold. That's what dlss is. Varying picture quality with upscaled low Rez, but run as "true 4k". Seems to work for a few peeps in this forum. 🙃

 

[maddie]

AMD themselves were directly responsible in several cases (eg, 'Poor Volta' marketing). And "leaks" are more often than not leaked on purpose by the companies in order to generate hype or manipulate expectations in one way or the other.

That's the product of one leading individual who appears unable to keep quiet and is not at AMD anymore. We can see his work at Intel over the past year or more.

Raja.

 

[Panino Manino]

It's pure marketing gold. That's what dlss is. Varying picture quality with upscaled low Rez, but run as "true 4k". Seems to work for a few peeps in this forum. 🙃

What annoys me is situations like happened with Death Stranding.
DLSS 2.0 is not perfect, there are artifacts in the image, some details disappears, but you rarely see the sites and users commenting about this. Meanwhile the AMD option (FidelityFX) is only mentioned to say that there are artifacts and it's not perfect.

 

[uzzi38]

A2 stepping of Navi10 launched close to or at the 5600XT launch.

All silicon before that was A1.

There doesn't seem to be an easy way to distinguish between the two however except from A2 basically doesn't blackscreen. Unfortunately GPU-Z can't seem to distinguish. There was a single reference to A1/A2 stepping, but I forgot to keep a note of where that reference was

I think all 5600Ms and 5700Ms are A2 silicon though.