Question Speculation: RDNA2 + CDNA Architectures thread

[uzzi38]

All die sizes are within 5mm^2. The poster here has been right on some things in the past afaik, and to his credit was the first to saying 505mm^2 for Navi21, which other people have backed up. Even still though, take the following with a pich of salt.

Navi21 - 505mm^2

Navi22 - 340mm^2

Navi23 - 240mm^2

Source is the following post: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1588075782.A.C1E.html

 

[Saylick]

Yeah, I'm definitely skeptical of Igor's info simply because we have the datapoint of the Xbox Series X, which is RTX 2080 Super performance at 130-140W. Extrapolate that out to 275W however you want but I can't imagine a 52 CU part extrapolated out to twice the TDP will be anywhere less than a RTX 3080.

 

[maddie]

He's not saying it's barely above 3070 and need 300W for the 3080. He said it's above 3070 (might be right in the middle between 3070 and 3080), but they need more than 300W to get near 3080. He didn't say how much more than 300W they need for the 3080. But anyway, he also mentions it's very unsure and a lot of speculation. So we should take it with a grain of salt.

More important are his mentions about AIB not having any infos on the cards yet, as he's having excellent contacts to AIBs. So probably no AIB RDNA2 this year. That's disappointing.

I think this is the most important part.

"But anyway, he also mentions it's very unsure and a lot of speculation"

 

[moinmoin]

These leaks are both so particular and so obviously don't align with what (little) AMD has been promising so far that it's likely a very particular ES and AMD now knows where to hunt down the source of it. Or it's all BS to begin with.

 

[Kenmitch]

I think this is the most important part.

"But anyway, he also mentions it's very unsure and a lot of speculation"

These guy's are just trying to force a response from AMD most likely.

Tweaktowns already running with it like it's the word of gospel.

You know how it is....Gotta get the clicks!

NVIDIA's cheap Ampere cards force AMD Big Navi with 16GB price to $549

NVIDIA pricing its new GeForce RTX 3070 at $499 and RTX 3080 at $699 is causing some headaches for AMD's Big Navi graphics cards.

www.tweaktown.com

 

[moinmoin]

For biggest possible impact I expect AMD to say nothing until the 16th.

 

[uzzi38]

For biggest possible impact I expect AMD to say nothing until the 16th.

I don't expect them to say anything at all until maybe the end of the month.

Maybe.

 

[MrTeal]

Oh man, remember when that first came out and it was going to be chiplets on interposers with next gen HBM giving Navi massive performance at reasonable cost?
Good times.

 

[Konan]

For biggest possible impact I expect AMD to say nothing until the 16th.

Probably in Fornite

 

[CastleBravo]

I don't expect them to say anything at all until maybe the end of the month.

Maybe.

I don't think AMD will wait that long unless they buy into the rumor that Ampere is supply limited. Imagine if that was disinfo spread by NV though...

 

[moinmoin]

I don't expect them to say anything at all until maybe the end of the month.

Maybe.

If they don't intend to try to torpedo Nvidia's launches PR wise this month I can imagine them keeping quiet well beyond this month.

 

[jpiniero]

Yeah, I'm definitely skeptical of Igor's info simply because we have the datapoint of the Xbox Series X, which is RTX 2080 Super performance at 130-140W. Extrapolate that out to 275W however you want but I can't imagine a 52 CU part extrapolated out to twice the TDP will be anywhere less than a RTX 3080.

I guess it would depend on how high they would need to go frequency wise. Look at the PS5 - it is for sure drawing more than the XSX is.

This assumes we are talking about the 60 CU model max of course.

 

[A///]

The three most often linked to leakers have incredibly high accuracy. Two tubers, a dumb blog are not what I'd like to use as a source. Igor's lab is usually on point.

I want to get a 3080 if amd can send prices tumbling. No idea if I'd get an AMD card with the amount of problems their software has. I'm more interested in Zen 3. Honestly the wait is depressing. It's like a slow drip of water on your head for weeks.

 

[soresu]

I want to get a 3080 if amd can send prices tumbling.

I wouldn't expect it even if AMD's SKU's are power/perf competitive.

Not unless AMD have been extremely sneaky and hid RDNA2 being chiplet based which is extremely unlikely.

The best I would expect nVidia to do is a $50-100 drop, hardly a tumble at those prices.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Igor's leak says that Big Navi somehow goes from being just barely above 3070 to being a 3080 competitor by bumping the power up from 275w to ~300w, but this is supposed to be really bad for efficiency? That doesn't add up IMO.

- Yeah no kidding, throw another 25 watts at it and you've got yourself a 3090 competitor!

 

[uzzi38]

I don't think AMD will wait that long unless they buy into the rumor that Ampere is supply limited. Imagine if that was disinfo spread by NV though...

If they don't intend to try to torpedo Nvidia's launches PR wise this month I can imagine them keeping quiet well beyond this month.

I don't think they'll act because it'll probably be seen as AMD overhyping again. They've done a bang up job from spreading too much info about RDNA2 and Zen 3, I don't see them suddenly spreading information as a knee jerk reaction to prevent Ampere sales. Even if we are ro get a teaser or something by the end of the month, I'm expecting at most a "we'll be competing at the high end" again. That's it really.

 

[A///]

I wouldn't expect it even if AMD's SKU's are power/perf competitive.

Not unless AMD have been extremely sneaky and hid RDNA2 being chiplet based which is extremely unlikely.

The best I would expect nVidia to do is a $50-100 drop, hardly a tumble at those prices.

I'd consider it a tumble. It's good enough for my wallet. Zen 3 will send it running. OTOH, if by some random miracle RDNA2 cleans the floor with Ampere, it'll cause a stumble in resale values and general MSRP, IF, big IF that their software isn't a heinous ball of spaghetti.

 

[soresu]

IF, big IF that their software isn't a heinous ball of spaghetti.

Wave32 was a serious change in how the uArch works, and definitely the biggest since Southern Islands/GCN1 - I would not expect serious problems with RDNA2 on any games not using newer features like RT, VRS or Mesh shading given they have likely worked out most of the kinks over the Wave32 change by now.

One would hope though that they do get how much of a PR dent the drivers have been and are looking to launch from a stronger position this time.

That might even go some way to explaining why they have taken so long to start detailing RDNA2 officially rather than through the deep dives of the console GPU's which are custom enough to be more ambiguous on the outcome of the desktop uArch.

 

[beginner99]

I don't see them suddenly spreading information as a knee jerk reaction to prevent Ampere sales

Agree. The NV fanboys will buy NV anyway, the ones that need something new right now will but right now anyway and the people with more flexibility like myself will simply wait anyway because what really do you have to loose if you wait? I doubt NV will be supply limited. That is much more likely to be an AMD problem. Worst case scenario is NV has the better deal and waiting was a waste of time and you have to wait a bit more due to supply issues.

So yeah AMD making any sort of statement very early before release doesn't make that much sense. More likley we get more info via consoles.

 

[Shmee]

If I were AMD I would not release any news until actual benchmarks and reviews are out. Then they would finally know Nvidia's hand. So far we only have leaks and marketing announcements, but no real benches or reviews. Still much to be seen.

 

[Shivansps]

I dissagee, they need to get something out right now, AMD cant keep coming up with cards that compite with Nvidia a year later, i havent had a nvidia GPU since the 6800GS, and is very likely that im going to get the 3070/3080.

 

[Shmee]

Well you wouldnt want them to rush it either. My guess is for the holidays, which makes sense. Probably some good black Friday deals to be had.

 

[NostaSeronx]

Just rumors that happen to be found: Navi21 has been "deferred"/"unfocused". Instead, Navi31 will launch before mid-2021 or shortly after instead.

Navi22/23/24 will launch on time though replacing RX 5700/5500/640 respectively.

The pricing for 22-24 will be inline with historic lows of previous GPUs.
~$200 + prem
~$100 + prem
~$50 + prem

New road:
Navi3x is 2.5D RDNA2
Navi4x is RDNA3(GFX1100s) (Probably X3D)

Navi3x upper-end respectively is double the CU count of Navi2x.

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

Just rumors that happen to be found: Navi21 has been "deferred"/"unfocused". Instead, Navi31 will launch before mid-2021 or shortly after instead.

Navi22/23/24 will launch on time though replacing RX 5700/5500/640 respectively.

What is RX640 ?

 

[NostaSeronx]

What is RX640 ?

Rebrand of RX 550: https://www.amd.com/en/products/graphics/radeon-rx-640

 

[eek2121]

Looks like AMD is seeing some record high boost clocks with next-gen. It will be interesting to see where they finalize clocks and how much overclocking headroom there is.