Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Wonder if N32 is being delayed for secondary cost saving measures. Cheaper heatsink, cheaper board layout, etc.

Basically the writing is on the wall and AMD sees the market and needs to trim back on "nice to have" to launch at a reasonable price while maintaining margins.

Just a thought.

 

[biostud]

Wonder if N32 is being delayed for secondary cost saving measures. Cheaper heatsink, cheaper board layout, etc.

Basically the writing is on the wall and AMD sees the market and needs to trim back on "nice to have" to launch at a reasonable price while maintaining margins.

Just a thought.

If they want a consumer hit, they definitely need better price/performance ratio, and since the performance aspect might be underwhelming then the price has to be good.

 

[Joe NYC]

They badly want the RX 6000 inventory to dry up so they can launch the new cards at the absurd price points they prefer. I'm guessing this is what they want:

7800 XT $800
7800 $700
7700 XT $600
7600 XT $500
7600 $400
7500 XT $300
7400 $200

I don't think these prices are realistic for the launch of N32 and N33 cards.

First of all, 7900 XT price is going to drop, maybe $100 to 799.

Full N32 or 7800 XT will probably be between 599 and 699

Full N33 or 7600 XT will be a direct replacement of 6600 / 6650 XT and will be sold at similar prices, below $300

 

[maddie]

I don't think these prices are realistic for the launch of N32 and N33 cards.

First of all, 7900 XT price is going to drop, maybe $100 to 799.

Full N32 or 7800 XT will probably be between 599 and 699

Full N33 or 7600 XT will be a direct replacement of 6600 / 6650 XT and will be sold at similar prices, below $300

You do know this summons our silicon Grinch, who's going to speedily correct your wildly optimistic expectations.

 

[jpiniero]

There is precedent for lower end parts in the same series having more advanced features by virtue of being designed later. The most extreme example that comes to mind is HD 7790, a GCN 2 part (Bonaire) existing alongside an otherwise GCN 1 lineup, until Hawaii came out and it was repurposed into the R7 260/X.

June would be almost 6 months. Which would be quite a while between launches.

 

[Mopetar]

My post was made in response to one that made it sound like there was no hardware bug, but that AMD decided for some reason to disable hardware through firmware. That wasn't something the poster outright said, so I may be misreading what they intended to say, but my interpretation of their post was something that didn't sound logical, hence my reply.

This situation doesn't seem similar to GCN2.

 

[Joe NYC]

You do know this summons our silicon Grinch, who's going to speedily correct your wildly optimistic expectations.

BTW, 7900 XT is already selling $50 below MSRP at Microcenter, so expecting this discount to be $100 by summer is not at all unreasonable.

As far as Navi 33 vs. Navi 23, Navi 23 cards are now selling for as low as $219 at Microcenter.

Navi 33 will be less expensive to produce than Navi 23, so $300 is not far fetched. Even at the height of GPU shortage, AMD introduced Navi 23 at $379, and we are at the opposite end of the cycle, in a GPU glut.

Navi 32 leaves more room for discussion, as far as range of prices.

 

[Kaluan]

BTW, 7900 XT is already selling $50 below MSRP at Microcenter, so expecting this discount to be $100 by summer is not at all unreasonable.

As far as Navi 33 vs. Navi 23, Navi 23 cards are now selling for as low as $219 at Microcenter.

Navi 33 will be less expensive to produce than Navi 23, so $300 is not far fetched. Even at the height of GPU shortage, AMD introduced Navi 23 at $379, and we are at the opposite end of the cycle, in a GPU glut.

Navi 32 leaves more room for discussion, as far as range of prices.

Yep, seeing something like

7800XT/full N32 - $699
7700XT/cut N32 - $499
7600XT/full N33 - $349
7600/cut N33 - $279

won't exactly be shocking or overly-optimistic. We're still months away anyway and prices are still coming down.

Still keeping my fingers crossed that N32 will be worth the wait.

 

[jpiniero]

BTW, 7900 XT is already selling $50 below MSRP at Microcenter, so expecting this discount to be $100 by summer is not at all unreasonable.

As far as Navi 33 vs. Navi 23, Navi 23 cards are now selling for as low as $219 at Microcenter.

That's an argument for AMD to not bother.

 

[maddie]

In breaking news, AMD departs from the discrete GPU market citing losses in all market segments. A spokesperson stated, " We hope one day to return if, and only if, the gaming consumer realizes the tremendous job we do and begins to pay the true worth of our expertise".

Stay updated, further breaking revelations may follow.

 

[Leeea]

In breaking news, AMD departs from the discrete GPU market citing losses in all market segments. A spokesperson stated, " We hope one day to return if, and only if, the gaming consumer realizes the tremendous job we do and begins to pay the true worth of our expertise".

Stay updated, further breaking revelations may follow.

https://wccftech.com/q3-2022-discre...idia-gains-amd-intel-in-single-digit-figures/

NVIDIA Gains 88% Market Share Hold, AMD Now at 8% Followed By Intel at 4%

It was inevitable, AMD just does not have the cash on hand to subsidize a dGPU product like Intel does.


AMD had a good run, and it could be argued in the dark days of the hammer series of CPUs, ATI is all that held AMD above water. But with market trends being what they are, the graphics department is dead weight holding AMD back. With Intel squeezing AMD on the bottom and Nvidia punching down this outcome was inevitable.

 

[moinmoin]

And some counter spin just for fun (just in case somebody took the previous seriously).

"A study of Nvidia and AMD’s financial indicators for the fourth quarter of 2022 shows that, despite Team Green’s notable leadership, Team Red is lagging behind by only 11 percent in total gaming revenue. Nvidia has suffered significantly more in this sector than AMD.

Both companies recently released reports for the end of 2022 showing strikingly similar gaming revenue in the fourth quarter. While Team Green’s revenue in this sector fell 46 percent from last year to $1.8 billion, Team Red’s revenue fell only 7 percent to $1.6 billion."

AMD's Gaming Revenue Last Quarter Was Almost 10% Lower Than Nvidia's. ⋆ Somag News

The big picture: Discussions about competition between Nvidia and AMD usually recognize Team Green as the more successful of the two giants of PC gaming

www.somagnews.com

(It's still a spin because in includes consoles. )

 

[Leeea]

heretical nonsense

your ruining its the end of AMD vibe! Delete your post!

Imagine if we could get the AMD is pulling out of GPUs rumor going? If nothing else, it would be entertaining.

 

[jpiniero]

(It's still a spin because in includes consoles. )

nVidia's does too... although I have to imagine that Nintendo is not paying all that much for the Switch SoC.

 

[igor_kavinski]

nVidia's does too... although I have to imagine that Nintendo is not paying all that much for the Switch SoC.

Do you have any evidence for that? Nvidia doesn't give away its chips. Jensen is far too shrewd and greedy for that.

Nintendo probably had some bad aftertaste with the Wii GPU or AMD couldn't provide them better battery life so they probably had no choice but to go with Nvidia (unless they hired some ex-Nvidia executive who pushed for the deal).

 

[Aapje]

Do you have any evidence for that? Nvidia doesn't give away its chips. Jensen is far too shrewd and greedy for that.

It should be a very cheap chip, built on TSMC 16, with a size around 100 mm2 and using the Maxwell architecture from the GeForce 900. It's hard to imagine a large margin for Nvidia.

 

[jpiniero]

Do you have any evidence for that? Nvidia doesn't give away its chips. Jensen is far too shrewd and greedy for that.

Nintendo probably had some bad aftertaste with the Wii GPU or AMD couldn't provide them better battery life so they probably had no choice but to go with Nvidia (unless they hired some ex-Nvidia executive who pushed for the deal).

Nintendo doesn't like to lose money on the consoles (unlike Sony or MS), and the Switch Lite is $199.

I guess it's an open question as to how either exactly do the accounting on the SoCs but the vast majority of the money is going to TSMC regardless.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Nintendo doesn't like to lose money on the consoles (unlike Sony or MS), and the Switch Lite is $199.

I guess it's an open question as to how either exactly do the accounting on the SoCs but the vast majority of the money is going to TSMC regardless.

IIRC, the Switch SoC was already a couple of years old when Nintendo started using it.

 

[jpiniero]

IIRC, the Switch SoC was already a couple of years old when Nintendo started using it.

That's correct. It's from 2015.

 

[Kaluan]

If anything, judging by that December interview that surfaced recently, I see AMD implying that they may be moving RDNA4 schedule up.

But in the meanwhile respins, N32 and RDNA3+ remain the more important questions.

 

[moinmoin]

It should be a very cheap chip, built on TSMC 16, with a size around 100 mm2 and using the Maxwell architecture from the GeForce 900. It's hard to imagine a large margin for Nvidia.

Actually I'd bet Nvidia has a larger margin than AMD for console chips. The thing is, margins don't really matter for the total revenue and profit if the chip in question is several gens older. Switch sells much more units than PS5 and XBSX/S combined, but the tech is much older, the node is much older, so in the end AMD surely gets more revenue and possibly more profit even at a lower margin from consoles than Nvidia.

 

[JujuFish]

Switch sells much more units than PS5 and XBSX/S combined, but the tech is much older, the node is much older, so in the end AMD surely gets more revenue and possibly more profit even at a lower margin from consoles than Nvidia.

Not exactly. For the last quarter, the Switch sold 8.2 million units to the PS5's 7.1 million. I can't find Xbox unit sales for the same time period, but I highly doubt it's under a million.

 

[JujuFish]

Nintendo doesn't like to lose money on the consoles (unlike Sony or MS), and the Switch Lite is $199.

No one likes to lose money. Sony raised the PS5 price in several regions last year. Nintendo sold the WiiU at a loss due to the controller expense.

 

[Aapje]

That's correct. It's from 2015.

They actually did a minor redesign in 2019, where they went from TSMC 20 to TSMC 16. They also then switched from a two-chip setup to a single chip:

Tegra - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

But it wasn't a full redesign, so it's pretty accurate to say that it's actually a 2015 design.

 

[jpiniero]

If anything, judging by that December interview that surfaced recently, I see AMD implying that they may be moving RDNA4 schedule up.

Pulling in RDNA4 I dunno, but moving on to focusing their efforts on RDNA4 I could see.