Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[Aapje]

Great new interview on MLID with semiwiki.com founder. There have been some great interviews lately.

Indeed and this is probably the best so far, although probably not the most accessible.

 

[Ajay]

Yes I'm aware of that. I guess we don't know a realistic timeframe for RDNA 4 but I was guessing it would be sooner rather than later.

Oh, okay. Best 'credible' info I could find seems to be 2H24 for RDNA 4. If it's earlier than that, well all bets are off.

 

[Rigg]

What would you suggest using instead of Steam Survey?

Without accurate sales data from multiple large retailers, covering multiple regions, there is no way to properly assess the sales distribution of the DIY GPU market. Since the likelihood of us getting access to that kind of that kind of data is zero, we should stop throwing crap at the wall based on flawed data.

The DIY GPU market is a part of the overall gaming gpu market which is part of the overall gaming market. That is precisely how these companies view it so why should we even care?

 

[Heartbreaker]

Without accurate sales data from multiple large retailers, covering multiple regions, there is no way to properly assess the sales distribution of the DIY GPU market. Since the likelihood of us getting access to that kind of that kind of data is zero, we should stop throwing crap at the wall based on flawed data.

The DIY GPU market is a part of the overall gaming gpu market which is part of the overall gaming market. That is precisely how these companies view it so why should we even care?

This is a speculation thread, where people regularly refer to rumors as a source of information, but you want to reject using ACTUAL data from steam because you have quibbles about it?

I disagree and I'm going to keep using it, because it's pretty much the only ACTUAL data we have, so It's fair game to speculate from.

 

[maddie]

This is a speculation thread, where people regularly refer to rumors as a source of information, but you want to reject using ACTUAL data from steam because you have quibbles about it?

I disagree and I'm going to keep using it, because it's pretty much the only ACTUAL data we have, so It's fair game to speculate from.

If something is false, it isn't data, at least in the sense of useful analysis. Don't you know not to build fantasy conclusions on false premises?

 

[Rigg]

This is a speculation thread, where people regularly refer to rumors as a source of information, but you want to reject using ACTUAL data from steam because you have quibbles about it?

I disagree and I'm going to keep using it, because it's pretty much the only ACTUAL data we have, so It's fair game to speculate from.

Yes this is a speculation thread and the Steam survey is fair game. I'm not taking issue with using the survey as a basis for speculation. I'm saying that misrepresenting the survey as a direct reflection of the DIY gaming card market ieads to bad speculation. The survey is a reflection of the entire gaming GPU market including OEM sales. AMD focuses its OEM supply on consoles in the gaming segment.

 

[Heartbreaker]

AMD focuses its OEM supply on consoles in the gaming segment.

AMD sells it's chips anywhere they can. PC OEMs use more NVidia Discrete cards because their customers want more NVidia discrete cards.

Edit:

If building an Alienware gaming PC at Dell you get a full slate of NVidia and AMD cards to choose from:

Alienware Aurora R15 Gaming Desktop With Intel 13th Gen | Dell USA

Shop the Alienware Aurora R15 Gaming Desktop. Our most powerful Intel-based desktop offers enhanced cooling & improved performance, or view all gaming desktops at Dell.com

www.dell.com

 

[Rigg]

AMD sells it's chips anywhere they can. PC OEMs use more NVidia Discrete cards because their customers want more NVidia discrete cards.

All of the companies in this space sell chips wherever they can.They also have finite resources and can't dump endless supply into every single market segment. AMD has an uphill battle against mind share on the OEM PC front. They are competing for low information consumers that are easier to capture with brand recognition and marketing than the enthusiast DIY market. This is precisely why it makes perfect sense that they have a smaller presence in the consumer desktop and laptop space. They're going against two juggernauts in Intel and Nvidia with long established OEM relationships in these markets. They're better off growing their OEM console/handheld business as opposed to a race to the bottom against Intel and Nvidia in the OEM PC space. They have something unique to offer in their semi-custom APU's and they seem to have found a very profitable niche here based on their healthy overall gaming segment.

If building an Alienware gaming PC at Dell you get a full slate of NVidia and AMD cards to choose from:

And??? You can custom order prebuilt gaming PC's from all over the place that use AMD parts. In the actual retail chain Intel and Nvidia have a much larger presence in OEM gaming desktops and laptops. AMD looks like they're at least making a bit of headway against intel here as they've won back some mind share by offering strong price/performance competition in the DIY CPU market. This is exactly why they should continue to stay competitive in DIY GPU.

 

[Heartbreaker]

And???

And, AMD is alive in the OEM space. OEM sales are not a reason to reject Steam Stats.

 

[blckgrffn]

And, AMD is alive in the OEM space. OEM sales are not a reason to reject Steam Stats.

SMH.

Alive? I guess. Healthy? They've been on their back foot for years, its been widely known.

It's certainly a reason to question the usefulness of Steam survey when it comes to DIY PC building, specifically.

If you don't want to acknowledge the long and fruitful relationships that OEMs and Nvidia and Intel have had and want to turn a blind eye to how prevalent they are in non-BTO markets that is what it is, I suppose.

Some of that has historically been AMDs fault and its more than just "drivers". They were not competitive, especially on power usage which is a big deal on whitebox stuff where more watts = more cost = lower margins. Other times they just couldn't deliver volume, or weren't able to negotiate as well as the other companies.

Without being able to discount Dell/HP/Lenovo etc. in the Steam stats it's not hard to understand that due to sheer volume it would resemble the market share of OEM systems vs hand built, which feels more and more niche all the time.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

AMD better release N32 soon judging by the state of this thread...

 

[DeathReborn]

AMD better release N32 soon judging by the state of this thread...

I can't wait for the 7950XT & 7950XTX that appeared in ROCm.

AMD confirms mainstream Radeon 7000 GPU launch this quarter, RX 7950XT spotted in ROCm pull request - VideoCardz.com

AMD finally confirms its plans for the mainstream Radeon GPU series During the Q1 2023 earnings call, AMD CEO and President Dr. Lisa Su admitted the company will have an update to the mainstream series this quarter. Radeon 6500/6650XT, Source: TweakTown It is not a secret that AMD is working on...

videocardz.com

 

[Timorous]

That reminds me of the old joke:
"We lose money on every sale, but make it up on volume"

How much lower do you think they would have to go?

Look at 2070 Super ($500) vs 5700 XT ($400). Similar performance, similar release date, and 2070S outsold 5700XT about 4:1 (according to Steam) with AMD having a 20% lower price...

So how much lower? 30%? 40%? How much margin will they have left?

Also do you think an economic downturn where people are worried about fuel/food/shelter costs are the best time for a "make it up on volume" strategy? A lot of these people are just out of the market until their future looks more solid. They aren't looking for better GPU prices to get back in, they are looking for an economic upturn.

Finally, do you think NVidia won't respond? What happens to the screw the margins strategy when your competitor makes a cut to get back to the same spread as before??

All of the above, is likely why AMD hasn't engaged in this strategy in recent years, and won't this time either.

The problem AMD have had is lack of consistent execution to cement gains they do make where as the last real mis-step NV made was GTX 480 being slow, hot and late but that was quickly replaced by the GTX 580 and every year since then they have either had the outright fastest part or it has been very tight. For high end buyers this consistency has meant going for the top end NV part was always a safe bet because at worst you had similar performance.

If you go back through it the 480 despite its foibles was faster than the 5870, the 580 was faster than the 6970, the 680 was neck and neck with the 7970, the 780Ti was neck and neck with the 290x, the 980Ti was faster than Furyx, the 1080ti had no competition, the 2080Ti had no competition and the 3090/Ti was faster than the 6900/6950XT and frankly the 4090 has no competition.

If AMD actually want to gain and keep marketshare in the dGPU space they need to do a zen play again and with 4000 series pricing and VRAM allocation at those price points AMD actually have an opportunity here with RDNA3. They also need to execute with Radeon as well as they did with zen over multiple generations and even then if the competition does well gaining marketshare won't be easy and NV have had a far better execution track record than Intel have of late.

 

[KompuKare]

If AMD actually want to gain and keep marketshare in the dGPU space they need to do a zen play again and with 4000 series pricing and VRAM allocation at those price points AMD actually have an opportunity here with RDNA3. They also need to execute with Radeon as well as they did with zen over multiple generations and even then if the competition does well gaining marketshare won't be easy and NV have had a far better execution track record than Intel have of late.

The problem there isn't just that Nvidia seldom misstep, it is that GPUs are simply large. Yes, chiplet might allow something like what Zen did but eventually Nvidia will go there too (although they might first release some PR waffle about how "glue" is bad like Intel did - but that's about as credible as Samsung's bad-mouthing of OLED TVs until they too started selling OLED TVs!), and we are back at square one.

And AMD is currently margins obsessed. From the results thread over on CPU, their R&D was $1.4 billion last quarter and the fixed costs of RDNA3 must be pretty huge - yet their strategy seems to be "under cut Nvidia by 5% or so, and sell almost nothing", totally forgetting that profit is margin * volume. Navi31 must be far cheaper to make than 4090 but they are not interested in volume.

If you go back through it the 480 despite its foibles was faster than the 5870, the 580 was faster than the 6970, the 680 was neck and neck with the 7970, the 780Ti was neck and neck with the 290x, the 980Ti was faster than Furyx, the 1080ti had no competition, the 2080Ti had no competition and the 3090/Ti was faster than the 6900/6950XT and frankly the 4090 has no competition.

Hawaii vs GK110 was the last time they truly could have gone for a major price war as it was so much smaller than GK110 (438mm² vs 561mm² on the same process), but since then that hasn't been the case.

 

[coercitiv]

I can't wait for the 7950XT & 7950XTX that appeared in ROCm.

AMD confirms mainstream Radeon 7000 GPU launch this quarter, RX 7950XT spotted in ROCm pull request - VideoCardz.com

AMD finally confirms its plans for the mainstream Radeon GPU series During the Q1 2023 earnings call, AMD CEO and President Dr. Lisa Su admitted the company will have an update to the mainstream series this quarter. Radeon 6500/6650XT, Source: TweakTown It is not a secret that AMD is working on...

videocardz.com

If that leak is correct, press F for the 7700XT.

 

[jpiniero]

If that leak is correct, press F for the 7700XT.

It's probably legit but you should treat it as "products that theoretically could be released"

That doesn't mean they will.

 

[PJVol]

If that leak is correct, press F for the 7700XT.

They have conflicting info even on this one page, where "leak" indicates 7700xt being N33 GPU, that's more like it, and the table below showed it as N32, which I believe was from an old redgaming video.

 

[Timorous]

If that leak is correct, press F for the 7700XT.

Indeed. N33 would need to scale well with higher power and even then I don't see it matching the 6750XT.

For that to work the stack would need to be more like

7800XT - N32 - 16GB VRAM - 6950XT perfomance - $600 at most.
7700XT - N33 - 16GB VRAM - 6800 performance - $400 at most.
7600XT - N33 - 8GB VRAM - 6700 performance - $280 at most.
7500XT - N33 - 6GB VRAM - 6600 performance - $170 at most.

I just don't see N33 hitting that level of performance even if you give it 250W of power and scaling above 1080p would be pretty bad as well due to a 128 bit bus and 32MB cache. Even if you used 24gbps GDDR6 on it to make up for the bus width that would still only match the 6700XT for bandwidth and I don't even know if Samsung is producing 24gbps GDDR6 yet.

 

[Ajay]

I can't wait for the 7950XT & 7950XTX that appeared in ROCm.

AMD confirms mainstream Radeon 7000 GPU launch this quarter, RX 7950XT spotted in ROCm pull request - VideoCardz.com

AMD finally confirms its plans for the mainstream Radeon GPU series During the Q1 2023 earnings call, AMD CEO and President Dr. Lisa Su admitted the company will have an update to the mainstream series this quarter. Radeon 6500/6650XT, Source: TweakTown It is not a secret that AMD is working on...

videocardz.com

Cool, then AMD can release a 7800XT/XTX that’s actually a 7900XT, but with a 256b bus and 16GB of RAM - along the lines of what @Rigg suggested.

 

[maddie]

It's probably legit but you should treat it as "products that theoretically could be released"

That doesn't mean they will.

And yet, no other xx50 models in the list.

 

[jpiniero]

And yet, no other xx50 models in the list.

The 7950 XTX/XT is probally just the curent products with faster memory. A cheap refresh to prop ASPs back up.

 

[Ajay]

The 7950 XTX/XT is probally just the curent products with faster memory. A cheap refresh to prop ASPs back up.

I would suspect a clock bump as well. AMD are probably seeing more chips coming off the line that can clock higher, so they’ll just bin them out.

 

[MrTeal]

A single SKU (with possibly a 7800 as well) from N32 seems really odd especially with N33 spanning 7700 XT to 7500 XT.

 

[jpiniero]

A single SKU (with possibly a 7800 as well) from N32 seems really odd especially with N33 spanning 7700 XT to 7500 XT.

Could just be that the original intention was to do only one N32 SKU to start like N22.

 

[MrTeal]

Could just be that the original intention was to do only one N32 SKU to start like N22.

Possibly, but the naming is way off then. If the 7700XT is N33 and a full 32 CU, given the CU to CU scaling we've seen between N21 and N31 it would probably end up being slower than the 6700XT, let alone the 6750XT.
The 4060 Ti potentially being similar in performance to the 3070 is already tough to swallow, but slower than previous gen would be a disaster. I can't see AMD letting that happen.