Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

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uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
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This ain't the perfect storm of crypto boom 2.0 + COVID-19 upgrade fever + WFH all leading to GPUs selling at any price.

We're in the midst of a smoldering recession with the worst PC demand in x86 history. And that's with layoffs only starting, with plenty more to come.

Prices need to be reasonable, or people will just not buy.
Or, the choice AMD & NV have taken, which is to jack up ASPs to increase the profit per card. That way that business line stays profitable and hence is worth while to be in - even with lower sales. Kind of sucks being us for the last two generations.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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- We don't actually know what Navi 24 suggests.

There is plenty of speculation, but no smoking gun or proof that it was specifically an oversupply of laptop chips forced to become a desktop part.

It was like 8 months after the initial announcement that any laptops with Navi 24 actually became available...
 

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
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Or, the choice AMD & NV have taken, which is to jack up ASPs to increase the profit per card. That way that business line stays profitable and hence is worth while to be in - even with lower sales. Kind of sucks being us for the last two generations.
Even with the unprecedented stimulus associated with the pandemic and the unprecedented increase in money supply... demand outstripping supply turned out to be temporary. Fed QT is causing shockwaves through the system though flat out refusal to accept reality persists in many sectors including real estate.

Some simple facts:
The second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in US history. And we're not even in H2 2023.
VC funds and investment rapidly curtailed. Unprofitable companies are going to be in trouble as debt becomes due for refinancing... at higher interest rates.
Highest consumer debt burden ever. North of 16.9 trillion USD at the end of 2022 and rapidly climbing.
"Buy now pay later" plans are more popular than ever. But what's sad is what they are being used for. According to a recent LendingTree survey, 21% of respondents are using BNPL loans to pay for... groceries.

Two major thoughts I will leave you with:
1) The best cure for high prices... is high prices. When people stop paying the jacked up prices, prices will correct.
2) Money printer has been changed to money shredder. The excess money sloshing around at all levels is rapidly disappearing and combined with the recent bank failures credit is becoming much harder to obtain. When combined with record debt levels and inflation, I'm long on popcorn and lawn chairs.

All this is to say:
AMD and nV may get away with high ASPs this generation, but it ain't happening with the next generation because the coming financial crisis is going to make the GFC look tame.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,787
4,771
136
Even with the unprecedented stimulus associated with the pandemic and the unprecedented increase in money supply... demand outstripping supply turned out to be temporary. Fed QT is causing shockwaves through the system though flat out refusal to accept reality persists in many sectors including real estate.

Some simple facts:
The second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in US history. And we're not even in H2 2023.
VC funds and investment rapidly curtailed. Unprofitable companies are going to be in trouble as debt becomes due for refinancing... at higher interest rates.
Highest consumer debt burden ever. North of 16.9 trillion USD at the end of 2022 and rapidly climbing.
"Buy now pay later" plans are more popular than ever. But what's sad is what they are being used for. According to a recent LendingTree survey, 21% of respondents are using BNPL loans to pay for... groceries.

Two major thoughts I will leave you with:
1) The best cure for high prices... is high prices. When people stop paying the jacked up prices, prices will correct.
2) Money printer has been changed to money shredder. The excess money sloshing around at all levels is rapidly disappearing and combined with the recent bank failures credit is becoming much harder to obtain. When combined with record debt levels and inflation, I'm long on popcorn and lawn chairs.

All this is to say:
AMD and nV may get away with high ASPs this generation, but it ain't happening with the next generation because the coming financial crisis is going to make the GFC look tame.
The only part I disagree with is this one below. I expect price cuts starting soon as they won't have 1&1/2 yrs slack.

"AMD and nV may get away with high ASPs this generation"

I'll leave with this. The touted H2 rebound is heading in the opposite direction as predicted by a tiny minority here.

 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
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The 7900 XT also got crapped on by reviewers and is still being rejected by consumers because of it's MSRP.

Though if the XTX didn't exist, it's MSRP might have been fine. It was mainly the proximity to XTX that made the XT MSRP so bad. The XTX was something like 17% faster, but was only about 10% more expensive, making it seem like a much more reasonable choice. Basically everyone said, just get the XTX.
 
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Aapje

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Mar 21, 2022
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The only part I disagree with is this one below. I expect price cuts starting soon as they won't have 1&1/2 yrs slack.
The sad part is that both companies can afford to have poor sales because they have other markets that do very well. AMD is making huge gains in the server CPU market and pushing people to consoles benefits them, while Nvidia has AI and such. The one company that would really benefit from having a GPU that sells in large numbers with modest profits is Intel, but their GPU sucks.

However, just because Nvidia and AMD can afford it, doesn't mean that they will be happy with it. And with more and more N5 TSMC capacity coming available, they'll leave a lot of money on the table.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
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All this is to say:
AMD and nV may get away with high ASPs this generation, but it ain't happening with the next generation because the coming financial crisis is going to make the GFC look tame.

Recession is kind of expected yes. It's often the necessary pain needed to kill inflation. They usually aim for a "soft landing" but it usually doesn't happen.

But as noted before, GPUs are luxury toys. Dropping the prices on them (and eating margin) probably isn't a great strategy, to handle a recession slowdown.

A large portion of the population is going to be too worried about Food/Shelter/Jobs to buy luxury toys until this is over. So your price drop here is only losing you margin, these people aren't waiting for GPU price cuts, they are waiting for the economy to improve. The size of this group seems to be growing...
 
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moinmoin

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Jun 1, 2017
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Or, the choice AMD & NV have taken, which is to jack up ASPs to increase the profit per card. That way that business line stays profitable and hence is worth while to be in - even with lower sales. Kind of sucks being us for the last two generations.
That's what AMD's current actions in the client computing market essentially boil down to indeed. As they essentially stated in the Q1 earnings call due to the current oversupply due to too much remaining inventory AMD essentially "stopped competing" (mainly against the existing inventory of its own products).

The apparent plan is that by H2 the inventory is sold through and the then existing demand can finally be served with new supply.

AMD being as conservative as they always have been that supply will be at best the amount of demand they forecast, so unless demand is dropping even more than they forecast we can fully expect AMD to remain supply constrained for new products. That then gives AMD the leverage to keep ASP high.

So yeah, unless looking for discontinued goods it's an increasingly bad time to be looking for deals (and even discontinued goods will become more expensive as they run out of stock).
 
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Rigg

Senior member
May 6, 2020
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Though if the XTX didn't exist, it's MSRP might have been fine. It was mainly the proximity to XTX that made the XT MSRP so bad. The XTX was something like 17% faster, but was only about 10% more expensive, making it seem like a much more reasonable choice. Basically everyone said, just get the XTX.
It's also the proximity to the 4070 ti that makes it look bad. I realize the 4070 ti came out a few weeks later but it's not like they didn't know it was coming and roughly where it would land price/performance wise. If they launch a $600 N32 everyone will say just get the 4070.
 
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Heartbreaker

Diamond Member
Apr 3, 2006
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If they launch a $600 N32 everyone will say just get the 4070.

If full N32 has better raster performance than 4070, 4GB more RAM, and a 6800 MSRP ($580), it could be sold as the RX 7800 (non XT) and I'm sure all the reviews would place it over the 4070.

Then the can also sell N32 cut with 12 GB version, that is still pretty close to 4070 performance, but at $500 as the 7700 XT which is then almost 17% discount for same performance/RAM , and maybe one more cut with 10GB as the 7700 non XT for about $400.

That's three cuts from N32 putting it from 7700 ($400) to 7800 ($580). Which seems like a reasonable starting point, and helps fill in the lineup.

It's not a great leap forward, but that is the reality of this generation. AMD didn't get a great leap this generation from process or technology.
 
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blckgrffn

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May 1, 2003
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www.teamjuchems.com
If full N32 has better raster performance than 4070, 4GB more RAM, and a 6800 MSRP ($580), it could be sold as the RX 7800 (non XT) and I'm sure all the reviews would place it over the 4070.

Then the can also sell N32 cut with 12 GB version, that is still pretty close to 4070 performance, but at $500 as the 7700 XT which is then almost 17% discount for same performance/RAM , and maybe one more cut with 10GB as the 7700 non XT for about $400.

That's three cuts from N32 putting it from 7700 ($400) to 7800 ($580). Which seems like a reasonable starting point, and helps fill in the lineup.

It's not a great leap forward, but that is the reality of this generation. AMD didn't get a great leap this generation from process or technology.

I feel like that is optimistic. Sites like Tom's weight DLSS very heavily in addition to any difference in RT performance and so it seems like they might need a larger than $20 price discrepancy to get the nod even if everything else is a slight win/is equal. I'd like to see it played out though, it feels like it's being drug out forever.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,094
8,106
136
Even with the unprecedented stimulus associated with the pandemic and the unprecedented increase in money supply... demand outstripping supply turned out to be temporary. Fed QT is causing shockwaves through the system though flat out refusal to accept reality persists in many sectors including real estate.

Some simple facts:
The second, third, and fourth largest bank failures in US history. And we're not even in H2 2023.
VC funds and investment rapidly curtailed. Unprofitable companies are going to be in trouble as debt becomes due for refinancing... at higher interest rates.
Highest consumer debt burden ever. North of 16.9 trillion USD at the end of 2022 and rapidly climbing.
"Buy now pay later" plans are more popular than ever. But what's sad is what they are being used for. According to a recent LendingTree survey, 21% of respondents are using BNPL loans to pay for... groceries.

Two major thoughts I will leave you with:
1) The best cure for high prices... is high prices. When people stop paying the jacked up prices, prices will correct.
2) Money printer has been changed to money shredder. The excess money sloshing around at all levels is rapidly disappearing and combined with the recent bank failures credit is becoming much harder to obtain. When combined with record debt levels and inflation, I'm long on popcorn and lawn chairs.

All this is to say:
AMD and nV may get away with high ASPs this generation, but it ain't happening with the next generation because the coming financial crisis is going to make the GFC look tame.
I don’t know what GFC is. Other than that, if we have a recession due to current monetary policy, inflation and tightening credit - all bets are off. All the semicon companies we follow will be in a world of hurt. The question for them is do they lower ASPs and take the profit hit just to maintain an acceptable revenue flow for themselves and all their board partners?

According to a recent LendingTree survey, 21% of respondents are using BNPL loans to pay for... groceries.

This is pretty shocking. Like, WTH is going on here shocking. I’d like to know what demographic is making this choice.
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
2,814
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I don’t know what GFC is. Other than that, if we have a recession due to current monetary policy, inflation and tightening credit - all bets are off. All the semicon companies we follow will be in a world of hurt. The question for them is do they lower ASPs and take the profit hit just to maintain an acceptable revenue flow for themselves and all their board partners?



This is pretty shocking. Like, WTH is going on here shocking. I’d like to know what demographic is making this choice.

Just a guess, Great Finiancial Crisis?
 

Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
1,467
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But as noted before, GPUs are luxury toys. Dropping the prices on them (and eating margin) probably isn't a great strategy, to handle a recession slowdown.

A large portion of the population is going to be too worried about Food/Shelter/Jobs to buy luxury toys until this is over. So your price drop here is only losing you margin, these people aren't waiting for GPU price cuts, they are waiting for the economy to improve. The size of this group seems to be growing...
The idea that poor people are only ever concerned with food/shelter/jobs is completely untenable if you look at actual statistics, research, etc, which shows that there is actually a huge amount of entertainment or at least distraction from reality being consumed by these people, whether it be TV, gaming, various forms of drugs or other 'luxuries.' That also makes a lot of sense, since their lives often suck, so escapism is really valuable to them and can actually be quite cheap (especially TV and prescription medication like Oxycodone paid for by medicare or whatever).

Besides, recessions don't actually turn the entire population of countries into beggars living on street corners begging for food. They tend to reduce most people's spending ability, but in many western countries we are actually extremely rich on average and a haircut still leaves most people with a huge amount of money.

Also, just because something is a luxury doesn't mean that demand merely falls away. Quite often, a recession results in people choosing a cheaper form of luxury over a more expensive one. This can result in certain luxuries actually getting more popular during a recession, when many people flock to it as a cheaper variant of the luxury they'd prefer, but have a hard time justifying during tough times. I'm not claiming that gaming is like that and benefits from recessions, but it's still a pretty cheap form of entertainment. For example, a ticket for a music concert costs about $100 on average. Add in all the travel, food, merchandising and other costs, and people probably spend at least double that. So attending just 3 concerts a year probably cost around $600. Spending that money on a computer that lasts 5 years or so, means you have a budget of $3000. You can build a really fancy computer for that money.

If you factor in the recession and that people have to significantly cut costs, then there is still room for a PC or console for $600 - $1000 if it is an alternative to a hobby that costs over $500 a year, which is really not that costly for a hobby. And it is actually possible to build a pretty good PC in that price range, even with a screaming fast 5800X3D. The thing that is lacking most though, is a sub $300 video card that provides really good value. However, people do become way more conscious about getting good value. So this is where I see potential for Nvidia and AMD to get pretty decent sales, if they provide very good value on the low end.
 
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maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
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The idea that poor people are only ever concerned with food/shelter/jobs is completely untenable if you look at actual statistics, research, etc, which shows that there is actually a huge amount of entertainment or at least distraction from reality being consumed by these people, whether it be TV, gaming, various forms of drugs or other 'luxuries.' That also makes a lot of sense, since their lives often suck, so escapism is really valuable to them and can actually be quite cheap (especially TV and prescription medication like Oxycodone paid for by medicare or whatever).

Besides, recessions don't actually turn the entire population of countries into beggars living on street corners begging for food. They tend to reduce most people's spending ability, but in many western countries we are actually extremely rich on average and a haircut still leaves most people with a huge amount of money.

Also, just because something is a luxury doesn't mean that demand merely falls away. Quite often, a recession results in people choosing a cheaper form of luxury over a more expensive one. This can result in certain luxuries actually getting more popular during a recession, when many people flock to it as a cheaper variant of the luxury they'd like. I'm not claiming that gaming is like that and benefits from recessions, but it's still a pretty cheap form of entertainment. For example, a music concert costs about $100 on average. Add in all the travel, food, merchandising and other costs, and people probably spend closer to double. So attending just 3 concerts a year probably cost around $600. Spending that money on a computer that lasts 5 years or so, means you have a budget of $3000. You can build a really fancy computer for that money.

If you factor in the recession and that people have to significantly cut costs, then there is still room for a PC or console for $600 - $1000. And it is actually possible to build a pretty good PC in that price range, even with a screaming fast 5800X3D. The thing that is lacking most though, is a sub $300 video card that provides really good value. However, people do become way more conscious about getting good value. So this is where I see potential for Nvidia and AMD to get pretty decent sales, if they provide very good value on the low end.
Great post.

When I owned & operated a Tropical fish export business. I asked the US importers about recession sales as I wanted some info for planning. They all said that sales were stable and even went up during recessions. Cheaper, stay at home activities rose.

I fully agree that price, or as you said relative cost, is the factor, not some flawed idea of "X" being a luxury item or not.
 
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
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Great post.

When I owned & operated a Tropical fish export business. I asked the US importers about recession sales as I wanted some info for planning. They all said that sales were stable and even went up during recessions. Cheaper, stay at home activities rose.

I fully agree that price, or as you said relative cost, is the factor, not some flawed idea of "X" being a luxury item or not.

The tropical fish market seems a bit more on the niche side. Maybe there are some burger flippers with a collection of tropical fish, but they're probably not the norm. I wouldn't be surprised if some owners made personal sacrifices in other parts of their life to keep their fish. I wouldn't be surprised if the average tropical fish owner was quite attached to their pets even though they're only fish.
 

maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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The tropical fish market seems a bit more on the niche side. Maybe there are some burger flippers with a collection of tropical fish, but they're probably not the norm. I wouldn't be surprised if some owners made personal sacrifices in other parts of their life to keep their fish. I wouldn't be surprised if the average tropical fish owner was quite attached to their pets even though they're only fish.
World ~= 4X. Fair sized niche, at least for small business me.

 
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Heartbreaker

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Apr 3, 2006
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The idea that poor people are only ever concerned with food/shelter/jobs is completely untenable if you look at actual statistics, research, etc, which shows that there is actually a huge amount of entertainment or at least distraction from reality being consumed by these people, whether it be TV, gaming, various forms of drugs or other 'luxuries.' That also makes a lot of sense, since their lives often suck, so escapism is really valuable to them and can actually be quite cheap (especially TV and prescription medication like Oxycodone paid for by medicare or

Though they can do a large portion of that without running out to buy a new GPU, or new Big screen TVs, and obviously it doesn't affect everyone.

But it is a factor in why practically all consumer computer products are in steep decline right now.

Another $100 off a GPU isn't going to reverse that decline.
 

insertcarehere

Senior member
Jan 17, 2013
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Besides, recessions don't actually turn the entire population of countries into beggars living on street corners begging for food. They tend to reduce most people's spending ability, but in many western countries we are actually extremely rich on average and a haircut still leaves most people with a huge amount of money.
I don't know where you're getting the idea that people in Western countries are still extremely rich in recessions from. The US consumer market in particular relies on massive debt and is very vulnerable.. This survey literally states that 68% of those surveyed are worried about their ability to cover 1 months expense without a job... That is not the characteristics of a population inclined to spend on luxuries during harder economic times.

Also, just because something is a luxury doesn't mean that demand merely falls away. Quite often, a recession results in people choosing a cheaper form of luxury over a more expensive one. This can result in certain luxuries actually getting more popular during a recession, when many people flock to it as a cheaper variant of the luxury they'd prefer, but have a hard time justifying during tough times. I'm not claiming that gaming is like that and benefits from recessions, but it's still a pretty cheap form of entertainment. For example, a ticket for a music concert costs about $100 on average. Add in all the travel, food, merchandising and other costs, and people probably spend at least double that. So attending just 3 concerts a year probably cost around $600. Spending that money on a computer that lasts 5 years or so, means you have a budget of $3000. You can build a really fancy computer for that money.
It should be self evident to everyone here why consumers would cut back on items that require large upfront purchases (I. E gaming PCs) versus more periodic, smaller payments (Gym memberships, subscriptions etc). Especially the case among lower income groups, which are (on average) less educated and financially literate.
 

Aapje

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Mar 21, 2022
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I don't know where you're getting the idea that people in Western countries are still extremely rich in recessions from. The US consumer market in particular relies on massive debt and is very vulnerable.. This survey literally states that 68% of those surveyed are worried about their ability to cover 1 months expense without a job...
It's quite typical for a lot of people to spend most of their income and/or to have excessive debt, but that is not a sign of poverty or low income, but a sign of poor financial education or a lack of long term thinking.

Pretty much all rankings or indexes show that Americans are extremely rich on average. Due to a lesser safety net, this may be a bit more volatile, but a pretty small percentage of the population actually loses their job during most recessions. It's pretty typical for unemployment to go from 3-5% to something like 7-10%. That means that people overwhelmingly do not lose their jobs. Also, the people who lose their job most are typically the precariat, so the risk of unemployment is actually far less for most people.

Also, typically global recessions hit second and third world nations way harder, as Western nations pull out their money and the like. So the US is really not all that vulnerable. It's just one of these myths that I often see.

Note that the kind of surveys that you point to are notoriously crappy and politicized. What does 'worry' even mean in the context of that survey? If people aren't actually cutting their spending to the bone, which 68% of Americans are definitely not doing (if you really think they are, you have an extremely misguided belief in what is actually going on), then how much are they actually worrying? Not enough to claim that the survey shows that they won't buy a cheap graphics card...

That is not the characteristics of a population inclined to spend on luxuries during harder economic times.

That is total and utter nonsense. The US has extremely high spending on luxuries. Do you seriously want to argue that the US population only spends money on necessities and not on luxuries? How do you explain all the luxurious shops all over the US and luxurious items that people own?

Perhaps you should talk with some people around you (assuming that you are American) to find one of these people who 'worry' about lasting a month without a job and asking them about what things they buy. Most likely they spend a ton of money on luxuries. Of course, people often convince themselves that a lot of those luxuries are necessities and you may also have that mindset, so you might not actually recognize what luxuries actually are. But just look at poor countries with an open mind and you will recognize that StarBucks coffee and a very big & expensive SUV are not actually necessities.

It should be self evident to everyone here why consumers would cut back on items that require large upfront purchases (I. E gaming PCs) versus more periodic, smaller payments
Of course, but you can actually upgrade or build a gaming PC piecemeal. Also, 'large' is relative.

Your argument actually supports mine, because if we get cheapish cards that are fairly powerful, then they can cut back by buying a relatively cheap card or PC instead of a more expensive hobby.

Fact is that the average US income is about $75k a year. So a $300 card is 1/250th of that. That is wealth and means that such a purchase is unlikely to impact the finances of the average American significantly. Mexico has an average income of about $16k, so the same card is actually 5 times more expensive to them relative to their income, at 1/53th of their average income. And Mexico is far from being the poorest country.
 
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DooKey

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It's quite typical for a lot of people to spend most of their income and/or to have excessive debt, but that is not a sign of poverty or low income, but a sign of poor financial education or a lack of long term thinking.

Pretty much all rankings or indexes show that Americans are extremely rich on average. Due to a lesser safety net, this may be a bit more volatile, but a pretty small percentage of the population actually loses their job during most recessions. It's pretty typical for unemployment to go from 3-5% to something like 7-10%. That means that people overwhelmingly do not lose their jobs. Also, the people who lose their job most are typically the precariat, so the risk of unemployment is actually far less for most people.

Also, typically global recessions hit second and third world nations way harder, as Western nations pull out their money and the like. So the US is really not all that vulnerable. It's just one of these myths that I often see.

Note that the kind of surveys that you point to are notoriously crappy and politicized. What does 'worry' even mean in the context of that survey? If people aren't actually cutting their spending to the bone, which 68% of Americans are definitely not doing (if you really think they are, you have an extremely misguided belief in what is actually going on), then how much are they actually worrying? Not enough to claim that the survey shows that they won't buy a cheap graphics card...



That is total and utter nonsense. The US has extremely high spending on luxuries. Do you seriously want to argue that the US population only spends money on necessities and not on luxuries? How do you explain all the luxurious shops all over the US and luxurious items that people own?

Perhaps you should talk with some people around you (assuming that you are American) to find one of these people who 'worry' about lasting a month without a job and asking them about what things they buy. Most likely they spend a ton of money on luxuries. Of course, people often convince themselves that a lot of those luxuries are necessities and you may also have that mindset, so you might not actually recognize what luxuries actually are. But just look at poor countries with an open mind and you will recognize that StarBucks coffee and a very big & expensive SUV are not actually necessities.


Of course, but you can actually upgrade or build a gaming PC piecemeal. Also, 'large' is relative.

Your argument actually supports mine, because if we get cheapish cards that are fairly powerful, then they can cut back by buying a relatively cheap card or PC instead of a more expensive hobby.

Fact is that the average US income is about $75k a year. So a $300 card is 1/250th of that. That is wealth. Mexico has an average income of about $16k, so the same card is actually 5 times more expensive to them relative to their income, at 1/53th of their average income. And Mexico is far from being the poorest country
Where did $75K come from? According to the BLS the average is $56k.
 

insertcarehere

Senior member
Jan 17, 2013
639
607
136
That is total and utter nonsense. The US has extremely high spending on luxuries. Do you seriously want to argue that the US population only spends money on necessities and not on luxuries? How do you explain all the luxurious shops all over the US and luxurious items that people own?

Perhaps you should talk with some people around you (assuming that you are American) to find one of these people who 'worry' about lasting a month without a job and asking them about what things they buy. Most likely they spend a ton of money on luxuries. Of course, people often convince themselves that a lot of those luxuries are necessities and you may also have that mindset, so you might not actually recognize what luxuries actually are. But just look at poor countries with an open mind and you will recognize that StarBucks coffee and a very big & expensive SUV are not actually necessities.
You're not understanding my point though, my point wasn't that people in the U.S don't spend much on luxuries. Having lived there for a couple years, first-hand experience is that Americans consume absurd amounts of luxuries relative to their incomes....When times are good/normal, which is in no small part due to the consumer debt culture there.

But to pretend that this debt-fueled consumer spending can continue during a recession, when people lose jobs or are worried about losing jobs, significantly strains credulity.

It's quite typical for a lot of people to spend most of their income and/or to have excessive debt, but that is not a sign of poverty or low income, but a sign of poor financial education or a lack of long term thinking.
Yes, and a consequence of this lack of long term planning is going to lead to volatility in consumer spending (I. E over consumption in normal times and underconsumption during harder times).

Pretty much all rankings or indexes show that Americans are extremely rich on average. Due to a lesser safety net, this may be a bit more volatile, but a pretty small percentage of the population actually loses their job during most recessions. It's pretty typical for unemployment to go from 3-5% to something like 7-10%. That means that people overwhelmingly do not lose their jobs. Also, the people who lose their job most are typically the precariat, so the risk of unemployment is actually far less for most people.

Except people don't have to actually lose jobs to be convinced to spend less, just reading news of an impending recession (with the increased worry of job losses) would be enough for many people to reduce discretionary spending.

Even among high-income groups who don't worry about losing jobs, compensation suffers because bonuses inevitably go to s*** during a recession. The banker who usually gets $70k in bonuses during a good year is going to spend much less if they get $10k in bonuses in a bad year..
 
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