Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

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uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
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Aapje

Golden Member
Mar 21, 2022
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Too optimistic on pricing. Need more details but those specs sound like $700.

Not sure how you determine that, because a new generation will improve the price to performance. So you can't just compare it to the current market.

The memory does indicate the price tier of the card.
 

Glo.

Diamond Member
Apr 25, 2015
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If it has 5120 shaders and upwards of a 3 GHz clock it should be faster than the 6900 XT in all cases except where the smaller bus is a bottleneck.

The 6900 XT has the same number of cores, but the clock tops out at 2.25 GHz. I expect that the clocks might only hit 3 GHz for a cutdown chip, but just being able to hit 3 GHz would mean that the GPU only needs about 4,000 shaders to have similar performance to Navi 21.
16 WGPS - 4096 ALUs/128 bit bus.
 

Karnak

Senior member
Jan 5, 2017
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Pretty sure N33 will be around a ~$500 price tag (+- $50). Of course MSRP and not what retailers are wanting you to pay for it. Although it's looking good as of right now regarding GPU pricing in general. We'll have to wait and see if it's the same in like 5-6 months.

But realistically... 128 bit bus, 8GB, probably like around ~400mm², cost effective N6 node. Sounds nothing like a $700 GPU to me. Not even close (again, MSRP ofc).
 

aigomorla

CPU, Cases&Cooling Mod PC Gaming Mod Elite Member
Super Moderator
Sep 28, 2005
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They're doing that now...

only because they could make a ROI off that videocard in its lifetime.
Once gpu's go back to gamers who in most generally are poor, they won't be able to afford that, or they will move to consoles.
Yes gamers in general are Poor... except you got your few exceptions like AdamK and professional streamers.
Othewise most of the high end videocards i bet are either in the hands of miners or content producers.

I don't expect prices to go down that much, but we're seeing some price drops.
You can get a 6600XT for under 500, and i managed to pick up a eVGA 3060Ti for 479.99 the other day.
Although again 479 for a xx60 class is about 100-150 too much IMO, but i think thats where the floor will be sitting, for lower mid entry gaming cards to run somewhere in the 400 dollar ranges, and not 250 they used to before 2018.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
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How are you calculating price? Cost +, performance tier , what?

20% faster than the 6900 XT at 1080p. If its slower and smaller than I am expecting, then maybe it'll be $500. But that is just inviting The Flood to ruin their plans.

Maybe the MSRP for the 6850 XT will be a clue.
 

Frenetic Pony

Senior member
May 1, 2012
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Market distortion! That's what low supply and low price sensitivity introduce. Crypto already looks wobbly, the NFT market is already on its way to crashing. If proof of work ever takes off, which at this point someone might beat ETH too it as they keep delaying, then it could mean the end of high GPU prices as has been seen over the past two years.

So that's pretty simple really.

What's more interesting is I'd found one study showing how much data is often re-used between frames in graphics. It's a lot, you could theoretically cut bandwidth a lot by having an even larger cache. Not just storing buffers but previous scene resources as well. However the resources used there were a lot, like a lot a lot. Unigine Valley, a benchmark that's 9 years old at this point, re-uses up to 260mb.

All this means the highest end proposed RDNA3 cache of 512mb couldn't keep everything at max settings (256mb is useful for 4k+ rendering on its own). And the lowest end of 128mb wouldn't be able to keep much at all. But AMD could cut some bandwidth by increasing cache. If they're really planning on just 256bit bus for the highest end it would require 512mb, no way you'd get away with 256mb and doubling or more a 3090.

The question of really fast camera movement, raytracing, and etc. also come up. You could see very visible stutters on a camera cut. Though maybe a single frame dropped on a camera cut might be seen as worth it. There's also the consideration of just how much is being streamed in and compressed today anyway. This also, once again, totally discounts the Navi 33 rumors. The 6900xt already uses 128mb or more on some tasks, cutting the bus size in half sounds totally impossible.

There does seem to be some more bandwidth savings with cache structures. But they'd need to be absolutely huge, and probably quite expensive, more expensive than just putting a bigger bus on a chip at some point.
 

Karnak

Senior member
Jan 5, 2017
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256 MByte is plenty enough for N31. Depending on which GDDR6 modules AMD is using we are talking about like 1.5 TB/s effective bandwidth minimum. If they're going for like 21 GT/s GDDR6 effective bandwidth would be way above 2 TB/s. That's just pure overkill and I believe we won't see 512 MB Cache.

Bandwidth is no problem at all for the 3090 and there we are talking "only" about 936 GB/s.
 

uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
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Zen 5 is mostly locked in as far as the design is concerned, but the actual product stack will change. There might be targets at this point, but they're moving. AMD has to respond to both what they can do and what the competition does and there's not enough certainty at the moment to do that with any kind of accuracy.

Out of curiosity what information were you looking for? There's not going to be any actual silicon outside of AMD to potentially confirm anything or base speculation on at this point. I don't think we'll get any kind of real solid information for at least another year.
Just because the architecture itself is locked in, doesn't mean all the rumours surrounding it are correct. There's one in particular I want to see corrected, that's all.
 

Frenetic Pony

Senior member
May 1, 2012
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256 MByte is plenty enough for N31. Depending on which GDDR6 modules AMD is using we are talking about like 1.5 TB/s effective bandwidth minimum. If they're going for like 21 GT/s GDDR6 effective bandwidth would be way above 2 TB/s. That's just pure overkill and I believe we won't see 512 MB Cache.

Bandwidth is no problem at all for the 3090 and there we are talking "only" about 936 GB/s.

It is not, just look at the 6900LC benchmarks. Much higher performance just mostly overclocking the ram. Which makes perfect sense, the 6900xt is barely faster than the 6800xt despite the fact that it should be over 20% faster according to CUs and compute clocks. The limiting factor between them is they have the same memory speed.

I'll be fair to Greymon here, the actual tweets sent out for the Navi 31`leaks included "guesses", which every subsequent reposting and article totally missed and just assumed all things were correct. It could easily be that the compute dies are totally correct. Which feels a bit like overkill but I guess AMD could use that as a weapon against Nvidia right now. But then you shove a 384bit bus and a giant cache and suddenly you get the resources to make it work. Or maybe a 512mb cache is somehow enough by itself, though I doubt that.

It's also worth noting the Navi33 leaks come from a different source and haven't been confirmed by anyone else. Thus the idea that such a configuration is ridiculous seems even more plausible. The real advantage of N5 is transistor density, afaik the power savings and clockspeed increases are pretty low. Thus if the chip is small enough it would cost close to the same to produce, and possibly be a lower cost to design, on N6 versus N5. Combined with possible higher N6 availability, a good thing especially for the highest selling product, it'd make sense to put something mainstream and low end on there.
 

SmokSmog

Member
Oct 2, 2020
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8GB VRAM on 400-500$ next gen GPU in early 2023 ? Get lost...

Navi33 look like 6600XT ( Navi23) replacement.
8GB VRAM
128Bit bus
Probably 8x PCIE 4.0

Only difference will be a die size.

7nm 237mm2 (Navi23) vs 6nm EUV 400mm2?? (Navi33).

6nm EUV is designed to be cost effective ( faster to produce with less layers).

I don't see it costing more than 400$ in normal market with dead crypto, beside 128Bit bus will be trash at mining.
I would expect AMD to offer more expensive 16GB versions, like polaris 4/8GB
 

postmortemIA

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2006
7,721
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But the comment in question stated:


And clearly, people buying 3070's are.
MSRP of FE is $600 and it sells out in minutes when it is in stock, and probably nVIDIA doesn't allocate many for their FE. MSRP of AIB cards is not $600, just look at eVGA site.. they have one for < $700 and probably they are not making any more of these.
The reality is that you can't buy $600 3070 Ti.
 
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