Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[Vattila]

AMD GPUs, by-and-large, need to compete with AMD CPUs for TSMC 5nm wafers. [...] From that perspective it is very difficult for AMD and its investors to justify selling RDNA 3 for cheap when the [opportunity] cost here is less high-margin Zen 4 workstations.

Good point, although AMD SVP Forrest Norrod has recently stated that package substrate capacity has been (and still is) the limiting factor for accelerating EPYC sales. Wafer supply is not a limiting factor, he claimed.

"The principal gate for us is not wafers. Particularly for these Epyc chips, it’s advanced substrates. And there’s just a long lead time to build up the factories and increase capacity for those substrates. We have made major investments and I think we are ramping that capacity at a very steep but prudent rate."

The Steady Hand Guiding AMD’s “Prudently Expanding” Datacenter Business (nextplatform.com)

 

[Timorous]

AMD GPUs, by-and-large, need to compete with AMD CPUs for TSMC 5nm wafers.

Navi 31 + 32 all take up 200++mm^2 of N5 die space + are 5-7 chiplet package designs. From a packaging perspective this puts them closer to Zen 4 EPYC than anything else AMD sells. From that perspective it is very difficult for AMD and its investors to justify selling RDNA 3 for cheap when the opp cost here is less high-margin Zen 4 workstations.

As Vatilla above points out the EPYC bottleneck is not wafers but substrates.

In addition that kind of optimisation works fine when you can sell everything to the high margin crowd but when you have Zen 4 sitting on shelves and are maxed out on substrate capacity for EPYC and still have wafers to spare you have pricing options.

It does not need to be an either / or scenario like it was with RDNA2 and Zen 3 since AMD have the capacity to now supply both.

 

[Aapje]

From that perspective it is very difficult for AMD and its investors to justify selling RDNA 3 for cheap when the opp cost here is less high-margin Zen 4 workstations.

This assumes that the demand for Zen 4 workstations doesn't crash...

I wouldn't be surprised if we see the same scenario as with the 6000 series, where prices started high, but went down quite a lot.

 

[Gideon]

As Vatilla above points out the EPYC bottleneck is not wafers but substrates.

I don't get it. A chiplet based RDNA3 doesn't need substrates?

I would also like AMD to price this gen considerably cheaper than Nvidia. However IMO most of the reasoning here seems a bit wishful.

I wouldn't mind to be wrong though.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

I would also like AMD to price this gen considerably cheaper than Nvidia. However IMO most of the reasoning here seems a bit wishful.

I wouldn't mind to be wrong though.

Hard to tell. Nvidia set the prices very high, so there is certainly space for considerably lower prices, but the question is If AMD is willing to do that. If the raster performance and RT is competitive, then I don't expect they will be much cheaper. If RT is considerably behind, then they will lower the price.

 

[insertcarehere]

This assumes that the demand for Zen 4 workstations doesn't crash...

I wouldn't be surprised if we see the same scenario as with the 6000 series, where prices started high, but went down quite a lot.

That's out of scope for discussion here but it should be reasonable to expect that primarily consumer-driven demand to gaming GPUs to be more volatile and affected by macroeconomics than primarily corporate-driven demand for workstations and servers.

As Vatilla above points out the EPYC bottleneck is not wafers but substrates.

In addition that kind of optimisation works fine when you can sell everything to the high margin crowd but when you have Zen 4 sitting on shelves and are maxed out on substrate capacity for EPYC and still have wafers to spare you have pricing options.

It does not need to be an either / or scenario like it was with RDNA2 and Zen 3 since AMD have the capacity to now supply both.

Is there any evidence that RDNA 3 wouldn't take substrate capacity? If recent earnings calls are an indication AMD has been trying to address issues for both the CPU and GPU sides here.

AMD themselves have been on the record about pivoting more to the workstation/server crowds vs desktop/client simply due to the margins in the former. This likely applies doubly so for GPUs given how much more packaging and middlemen are involved for GPUs vs CPUs.

Just as an illustrative example, compare what's needed for a 7950X to say, a Navi 32 graphics card.

7950X needs:
-2x 5nm 70mm^2 chiplets + 6nm i/o die
-substrate
-CPU socket pins

Navi 32 graphics card needs:
-1x 5nm 200mm^2 chiplet + 4+x 6nm MCDs
-substrates
-16+gb of fast GDDR6 memory
-VRMs and capacitors
-A beefy cooler
-PCIE socket, power connectors, displayport/HDMI ports... Etc

Its plain to see that BOM for the former is significantly less than the latter. So an AMD that can move the former at ~$600 will be very unwilling to sell the latter at remotely similar pricing unless it can be complemented by higher-margin workstation GPU products ala Nvidia, and AMD just doesn't have the penetration in that front.

 

[Timorous]

That's out of scope for discussion here but it should be reasonable to expect that primarily consumer-driven demand to gaming GPUs to be more volatile and affected by macroeconomics than primarily corporate-driven demand for workstations and servers.



Is there any evidence that RDNA 3 wouldn't take substrate capacity? If recent earnings calls are an indication AMD has been trying to address issues for both the CPU and GPU sides here.

AMD themselves have been on the record about pivoting more to the workstation/server crowds vs desktop/client simply due to the margins in the former. This likely applies doubly so for GPUs given how much more packaging and middlemen are involved for GPUs vs CPUs.

Just as an illustrative example, compare what's needed for a 7950X to say, a Navi 32 graphics card.

7950X needs:
-2x 5nm 70mm^2 chiplets + 6nm i/o die
-substrate
-CPU socket pins

Navi 32 graphics card needs:
-1x 5nm 200mm^2 chiplet + 4+x 6nm MCDs
-substrates
-16+gb of fast GDDR6 memory
-VRMs and capacitors
-A beefy cooler
-PCIE socket, power connectors, displayport/HDMI ports... Etc

Its plain to see that BOM for the former is significantly less than the latter. So an AMD that can move the former at ~$600 will be very unwilling to sell the latter at remotely similar pricing unless it can be complemented by higher-margin workstation GPU products ala Nvidia, and AMD just doesn't have the penetration in that front.

That is the point though. In a situation where they sell every 7950X they make and don't have any more capacity you are correct. However when they can't sell every one they make and they have additional capacity then selling other products, even at lower margins, is more profitable than not selling anything.

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

That is the point though. In a situation where they sell every 7950X they make and don't have any more capacity you are correct. However when they can't sell every one they make and they have additional capacity then selling other products, even at lower margins, is more profitable than not selling anything.

If the sales of Zen4 will be or are under expectations, then they can lower the cost, shift some wafer allocation to server models or to GPU.
The question is If RDNA3 will be so good or Nvidia so overpriced, that the already allocated wafers for RDNA3 won't be enough due to high demand.

 

[jpiniero]

If the sales of Zen4 will be or are under expectations, then they can lower the cost, shift some wafer allocation to server models or to GPU.
The question is If RDNA3 will be so good or Nvidia so overpriced, that the already allocated wafers for RDNA3 won't be enough due to high demand.

Don't forget about Sienna... and they could also make Threadripper (Pros) that work with that socket too

 

[eek2121]

I am pretty skeptical about N21 gaining 40-50% more performance by simply moving to N5. With the unrealistic linear scaling, It would already mean 3234-3465MHz, and you would also need 40-50% higher clocked memory to feed It(24gbps from Samsung).
Let's say It could be clocked so high, but TBP also wouldn't be the same but a lot higher because of those clocks and needed voltage.

AMD is using a custom spin of N5. They also have the option of using faster memory. Look at the 7950X. 33% higher base clock, 14% higher SC boost, and > 24% higher (typical) multicore boost.

They are doing more regardless.

Ancient history. That AMD has very little in common with Lisa Su's AMD. She maximizes margin at every opportunity.

She maximizes margin through market leadership.

AMD isn’t using chiplets for a pure margin play. If the card isn’t competitive it won’t sell. If it doesn’t sell, there will be zero margin. Also remember all these designs have R&D and marketing overhead. Selling only a few thousand cards will mean AMD has lost money.

I have absolute faith in AMD. I believe the 6900xt was evolutionarily in the same way Zen 2 was. Good enough, but not the best. I suspect next-gen will be a knockout. Hopefully, it will be AMD’s “Zen 3” moment, but for GPUs.

 

[H T C]

AMD is using a custom spin of N5. They also have the option of using faster memory. Look at the 7950X. 33% higher base clock, 14% higher SC boost, and > 24% higher (typical) multicore boost.

They are doing more regardless.



She maximizes margin through market leadership.

AMD isn’t using chiplets for a pure margin play. If the card isn’t competitive it won’t sell. If it doesn’t sell, there will be zero margin. Also remember all these designs have R&D and marketing overhead. Selling only a few thousand cards will mean AMD has lost money.

I have absolute faith in AMD. I believe the 6900xt was evolutionarily in the same way Zen 2 was. Good enough, but not the best. I suspect next-gen will be a knockout. Hopefully, it will be AMD’s “Zen 3” moment, but for GPUs.

AMD is in an unique position to cripple nVidia's 30XX and 40XX sales: all they have to do is to have their next generation cards priced "much more consumer friendly", and nVidia will lose millions.

While such a move would mean lower margins for AMD too, it would also have the effect of increasing their sales across the board.

In the current global economic situation, the company that sells cheaper is likely to have the bigger sales, but it's a double edged sword since AMD would lose A LOT OF MONEY too, though nowhere near nVidia's because of their market share.

It would be a gamble, for sure ... but if it works ... AMD would see their market share improve tremendously while forcing nVidia to lose millions at the same time, and not only from the market share loss.

Heads AND jackets might roll ...

 

[repoman0]

I am ready for an AMD GPU this generation for the sole reason that I won’t have to stare at leather jacket man’s stupid picture anymore every time I install updated drivers.

 

[linkgoron]

AMD is in an unique position to cripple nVidia's 30XX and 40XX sales: all they have to do is to have their next generation cards priced "much more consumer friendly", and nVidia will lose millions.

While such a move would mean lower margins for AMD too, it would also have the effect of increasing their sales across the board.

In the current global economic situation, the company that sells cheaper is likely to have the bigger sales, but it's a double edged sword since AMD would lose A LOT OF MONEY too, though nowhere near nVidia's because of their market share.

It would be a gamble, for sure ... but if it works ... AMD would see their market share improve tremendously while forcing nVidia to lose millions at the same time, and not only from the market share loss.

Heads AND jackets might roll ...

It's a double-edged sword, as in the next generation they might want to increase prices and improve their margins and then they receive backlash for not being the ultra value brand. This happened with Ryzen 5k prices I believe.

Just look at the current situation, the 6 series has way better price/perf, as well as better or competitive perf/watt and they still probably sold a fraction of Nvidia's sales.

 

[Aapje]

While such a move would mean lower margins for AMD too, it would also have the effect of increasing their sales across the board.

In the current global economic situation, the company that sells cheaper is likely to have the bigger sales, but it's a double edged sword since AMD would lose A LOT OF MONEY too, though nowhere near nVidia's because of their market share.

AMD seems to have significantly lower BOM costs, so AMD is in a perfect situation for a price war: being able to lower prices to a point where the profits are still decent, while the competition cannot sell at that price point without making a loss or having no profit.

And AMD does have a significantly worse reputation, so they will need to provide very good value if they are to win market share.

 

[H T C]

It's a double-edged sword, as in the next generation they might want to increase prices and improve their margins and then they receive backlash for not being the ultra value brand. This happened with Ryzen 5k prices I believe.

But it happened when there was no World economic downturn, so the circumstances are VERY different.

AMD seems to have significantly lower BOM costs, so AMD is in a perfect situation for a price war: being able to lower prices to a point where the profits are still decent, while the competition cannot sell at that price point without making a loss or having no profit.

And AMD does have a significantly worse reputation, so they will need to provide very good value if they are to win market share.

Like i said, it's a gamble and AMD would lose A TON of money too but nowhere near nVidia's.

Should this work, AMD would:

- lose A LOT of money, specially on current generation cards, since they'd need to lower the prices on these quite drastically in order for the newer cards to be "much more consumer friendly"
- gain A LOT of market share, assuming they can satisfy demand
- inflict nVidia with TERRIBLE LOSSES across the board

 

[Mopetar]

AMD is in business to make money, not to make some other company lose money or fulfill the fanciful whims of forum posters.

We already saw what they would do with their prices when they have the best product when Zen 3 had Intel pretty squarely beat.

They'll charge as much as they can to maximize their profits. No point in undercutting themselves and being out of stock everywhere.

 

[biostud]

How many of their GPUs does nvidia and AMD keep for their own cards and how many do they sell for their AIB partners.

 

[H T C]

AMD is in business to make money, not to make some other company lose money

They WOULD make money: just NOWHERE NEAR AS MUCH as they would in normal circumstances, hence the "lose A LOT of money" i had stated. Add to that "much more consumer friendly" prices for their new generation ... I'm thinking something along the lines of 25% less price for all cards ON TOP of the "planned price drops" due to new generation of cards launching, and about ... say ... 15% less for the new generation of cards.

Because of the current economic situation Worldwide, MANY will start looking for the "more budget friendly for X performance option" when purchasing a new card. This would FORCE nVidia to also drop their prices in order to compete but, due to the monolithic nature of their chips, odds are that nVidia wouldn't be able to lower the price of their cards AS MUCH as AMD, meaning they would be A LOT MORE expensive, so they would likely not sell as well.

ASSUMING AMD can meet demands, this would result in nVidia losing A LOT of market share, thus making them lose millions, and make them lose EVEN MORE MONEY due to price reductions. @ the same time, and despite selling for much lower prices, AMD would see a HUGE INCREASE in market share, improve their GPU manufacturer image CONSIDERABLY, but earn "little money" doing so, WHEN COMPARED TO "normal circumstances".

 

[Leeea]

They WOULD make money: just NOWHERE NEAR AS MUCH as they would in normal circumstances, hence the "lose A LOT of money" i had stated. Add to that "much more consumer friendly" prices for their new generation ... I'm thinking something along the lines of 25% less price for all cards ON TOP of the "planned price drops" due to new generation of cards launching, and about ... say ... 15% less for the new generation of cards.

Because of the current economic situation Worldwide, MANY will start looking for the "more budget friendly for X performance option" when purchasing a new card. This would FORCE nVidia to also drop their prices in order to compete but, due to the monolithic nature of their chips, odds are that nVidia wouldn't be able to lower the price of their cards AS MUCH as AMD, meaning they would be A LOT MORE expensive, so they would likely not sell as well.

ASSUMING AMD can meet demands, this would result in nVidia losing A LOT of market share, thus making them lose millions, and make them lose EVEN MORE MONEY due to price reductions. @ the same time, and despite selling for much lower prices, AMD would see a HUGE INCREASE in market share, improve their GPU manufacturer image CONSIDERABLY, but earn "little money" doing so, WHEN COMPARED TO "normal circumstances".

That is not going to happen.

What we saw with Ryzen was as soon as AMD was able to, they charged Intel prices. The GPUs will be no different.

AMD will figure out the point on the supply/demand chart where they are likely to make the most money now, and shoot for that.

 

[Kaluan]

It's a double-edged sword, as in the next generation they might want to increase prices and improve their margins and then they receive backlash for not being the ultra value brand. This happened with Ryzen 5k prices I believe.

Just look at the current situation, the 6 series has way better price/perf, as well as better or competitive perf/watt and they still probably sold a fraction of Nvidia's sales.

They didn't have an absolute lead over nVidia technologically, did they? They were competitive bottom to top, for the first time in many years, but they didn't outright beat nVidia in anything.

It's all about brand build up IMHO. RDNA4 may very well be AMD's greed moment, if RDNA3 suceeds in denting nVidia/gaining mindshare for the Radeon brand that is. Right now I don't think they can afford to "maximize margins". I think some still think that we're in the same world as 2-3 years ago.

We all know Intel chose to shrink their margins with 13th gen, but in the current economic climate, that may pay off. AMD may be smart to do so as well, they already derped a bit with the Ryzen 7000 launch prices. Maybe they won't make the same mistake twice.

AMD is in business to make money, not to make some other company lose money or fulfill the fanciful whims of forum posters.

We already saw what they would do with their prices when they have the best product when Zen 3 had Intel pretty squarely beat.

It is if nVidia losses mean less investments in the next gen or less trust in the brand. But this is obviously a gambit.

RDNA2 isn't Radeon's Zen3 moment, now is it? But RDNA3 could be. IDK

 

[maddie]

It's WCCFTech. If true, expect worsening conditions for all the majors. Should know more this week.

"Based on an internal AMD report, we have managed to learn that the company is planning to lower its Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU production plan."

AMD Lowers Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU Production Plan Due To PC Market Decline, Ryzen 9 7900X Best Selling AM5 Chip

Based on an internal AMD report, we have managed to learn that the company is planning to lower its Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU production plan.

wccftech.com

 

[jpiniero]

It's WCCFTech. If true, expect worsening conditions for all the majors. Should know more this week.

"Based on an internal AMD report, we have managed to learn that the company is planning to lower its Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU production plan."

If anything that shows that AMD needs to find out if they can get people (gamers) with plenty of disposable income to buy expensive AMD cards. Especially with TSMC only getting more expensive.

I also think AMD needs to get to a full chiplet strategy. Where they can have multiple types of dies to the point where they can be reused in other products like APUs, maybe even in a console refresh.

 

[Aapje]

Now is the perfect time for AMD to get many gamers give them a chance, if they offer very good value. Then they can improve their reputation with many people. This is far harder if Nvidia offers a better value product, which they may do for the next gen again (just like they followed the poor value 2000 series with the good value 3000 series, which lasted for a hot second until miners bought up a gazillion cards for high prices).

 

[Bigos]

It's WCCFTech. If true, expect worsening conditions for all the majors. Should know more this week.

"Based on an internal AMD report, we have managed to learn that the company is planning to lower its Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU production plan."

AMD Lowers Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU Production Plan Due To PC Market Decline, Ryzen 9 7900X Best Selling AM5 Chip

Based on an internal AMD report, we have managed to learn that the company is planning to lower its Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU production plan.

wccftech.com

Thank god it's WCCFTech.

 

[beginner99]

"Based on an internal AMD report, we have managed to learn that the company is planning to lower its Ryzen 7000 "Zen 4" CPU production plan."

I mean that is very believable so regardless of the source it makes sense. for gamers, a 5800x3d is the better choice overall and with the upcoming if not already happening recession wallets will be tighter and x670 boards and ddr5 aren't exactly cheap.