Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[moinmoin]

Actually it works in the other way. It is only more profitable if AMD has costs in let's say EUR. And that's only if you don't take into consideration that those costs will be higher due to inflation also. And I doubt there are many costs they pay in EUR.
So strong $ means only one thing for AMD (or any corporation from US), their sales will tank in any market that currency was weakend in relation to $. Because it will be much more expensive there than it was.
And tanking sales means less profit not more.
Basically now most corporations from US has decisions to make. Will they pretend that 550$ for 7900X (the same as for 5900X) is good price in any market outside US.
As long as $ is strong it's not a good price. Of course it's not that simple, you cannot simply lower prices in let's say Europe just like that, because Americans will start to buy from Europe instead of American sellers.
And that's a big no for American corporations.

So it's quite quite delicate matter of balance. But if American corporations will act like $ is not strong (too strong for their good) their sales and profit will tank outside of US (tax for inflation + strong $ is too high there).

And AMD is only example. It concerns nVidia (I could buy here RTX 4090 no problem, no ques), intel, apple et cetera et cetera.

That's why China always tried to keep its currency artificially low in relation to $. It makes export/sales more profitable, no the other way.

It's a little more complex than this, being an American company doesn't mean all required transactions are done in US$. Instead it's preferred to do all local transactions in the local currency. The interesting question is what currencies are used when crossing specific borders. In AMD's case all dies nowadays are manufactured in Taiwan (by TSMC), and depending on products assembly and testing afaik happens either in Malaysia (by AMD Global Services) or through third parties in Taiwan and China. When to keep local currency and when to exchange it is a complex business of its own.

Except the price in Denmark is 842€ included sales tax. The cards are generally 150-200€ more expensive in Portugal than Denmark, weird.

Aside differing sales taxes the prices may be more of a reflection of the respective market size (affecting the amount of internal price competition). In Germany RX 6900 XT is available from 779€:

Grafikkarten PCIe mit AMD + NVIDIA (aktuelle Modelle): RX 6900 XT Preisvergleich Geizhals Deutschland

Preisvergleich und Bewertungen für Grafikkarten PCIe mit AMD + NVIDIA (aktuelle Modelle): RX 6900 XT

geizhals.de

 

[TESKATLIPOKA]

You are pointing at a single game though.

Given this is a speculation thread the data we have on hand is either vague (>50% perf/watt) or rumour so all we can do is try and use some napkin maths + historic definitions to get a ballpark for how the new products will perform 'on average' and what kind of TBP we think that can be done in. Given the accuracy / precision of the data we have trying to delve into the nitty gritty of a singular gaming example or trying to get error bars smaller than +/- 10% is just not going to happen. It should be assumed any estimates given in here have pretty huge error bars and are heavily caveated for this very reason.

A link to the TPU chart with 50 games is in my post you quoted. You can see that 31.1% is not even the largest increase there, the highest is in Halo Infinite(48%).

With the rest of your post I agree.

 

[biostud]

It's a little more complex than this, being an American company doesn't mean all required transactions are done in US$. Instead it's preferred to do all local transactions in the local currency. The interesting question is what currencies are used when crossing specific borders. In AMD's case all dies nowadays are manufactured in Taiwan (by TSMC), and depending on products assembly and testing afaik happens either in Malaysia (by AMD Global Services) or through third parties in Taiwan and China. When to keep local currency and when to exchange it is a complex business of its own.


Aside differing sales taxes the prices may be more of a reflection of the respective market size (affecting the amount of internal price competition). In Germany RX 6900 XT is available from 779€:

Grafikkarten PCIe mit AMD + NVIDIA (aktuelle Modelle): RX 6900 XT Preisvergleich Geizhals Deutschland

Preisvergleich und Bewertungen für Grafikkarten PCIe mit AMD + NVIDIA (aktuelle Modelle): RX 6900 XT

geizhals.de

Yeah I know, but I didn't know there were so huge difference within EU. If I lived in Portugal, I would definitely order from another EU country.

 

[Aapje]

Portugal has a 4% higher VAT than Germany. That €779 price is €655 without German VAT, which becomes €806 with Portugese VAT.

What I did notice is that the Dutch and Spanish Amazon have nearly the same price for the cheapest 6900 XT, but that is ~€900. The much cheaper Dutch prices are from more country-bound sellers. So that suggests that a lack of competition might be the issue.

 

[Aapje]

-deleted-

 

[biostud]

Portugal has a 4% higher VAT than Germany. That €779 price is €655 without German VAT, which becomes €806 with Portugese VAT.

What I did notice is that the Dutch and Spanish Amazon have nearly the same price for the cheapest 6900 XT, but that is ~€900. The much cheaper Dutch prices are from more country-bound sellers. So that suggests that a lack of competition might be the issue.

Denmark has the highest VAT of EU with 25%, but is still cheaper so I guess yay!

 

[Mopetar]

Right now it's almost necessary to test with both AMD and Intel CPUs. Although the average is quite close, each has multiple titles where they perform significantly better than the competition.

Even when we get a 7800X 3D (or whatever it winds up being called) I still think we'll see a few cases where it's not quite at the top.

 

[Joe NYC]

It's a little more complex than this, being an American company doesn't mean all required transactions are done in US$. Instead it's preferred to do all local transactions in the local currency. The interesting question is what currencies are used when crossing specific borders. In AMD's case all dies nowadays are manufactured in Taiwan (by TSMC), and depending on products assembly and testing afaik happens either in Malaysia (by AMD Global Services) or through third parties in Taiwan and China. When to keep local currency and when to exchange it is a complex business of its own.


Aside differing sales taxes the prices may be more of a reflection of the respective market size (affecting the amount of internal price competition). In Germany RX 6900 XT is available from 779€:

Grafikkarten PCIe mit AMD + NVIDIA (aktuelle Modelle): RX 6900 XT Preisvergleich Geizhals Deutschland

Preisvergleich und Bewertungen für Grafikkarten PCIe mit AMD + NVIDIA (aktuelle Modelle): RX 6900 XT

geizhals.de

I think most of TSMC contracts are in USD. You will notice, in TSMC earnings report, that their earnings (announced in Taiwanese dollars) fluctuate. When dollar is high, earnings are higher.

 

[Joe NYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584414085784879105

Three N31 SKUs, two XTX models (same 96 CUs on X3D and non-X3D)

Would those SKUs be:
N31 20GB
N31 24GB
N31 24GB + V-Cache

 

[tajoh111]

I think we are going to get something along the lines of 1.6 to 1.7x the performance in real world performance vs a 6900xt. Ray tracing performance will be great than 2x.

If the angstronomics is correct, whatever AMD did to double the number of shaders was very cheap in terms of silicon as Navi 33 die is smaller than navi 23 yet they have doubled the number of shaders.

Combined with the very minor transistor density improvement of TSMC 6nm, I think this architecture is going to be like amphere were compute goes up but gaming performance is going to be quite modest relative to the compute increase.

However power consumption will not increase that much and it will be pointless for the most part as I think AMD has also not increased the pipeline that much to accommodate this wider architecture.

I think Navi 33 is going to be 1.2 to 1.3x a navi 23 but at 120watts instead of 165 watts.

I think navi 31 clocks are going to be more like 2.6-2.8ghz and have power more in the 330 range as the cooler AMD has kind of previewed so far does not look like a 400 watt cooler. That is just something slightly bigger than 2 slots if not a 2 slot card. When you add the ray tracing increase, it helps AMD claim of a greater than 1.5x performance/watt increase.

 

[Joe NYC]

I think we are going to get something along the lines of 1.6 to 1.7x the performance in real world performance vs a 6900xt. Ray tracing performance will be great than 2x.

If the angstronomics is correct, whatever AMD did to double the number of shaders was very cheap in terms of silicon as Navi 33 die is smaller than navi 23 yet they have doubled the number of shaders.

Combined with the very minor transistor density improvement of TSMC 6nm, I think this architecture is going to be like amphere were compute goes up but gaming performance is going to be quite modest relative to the compute increase.

However power consumption will not increase that much and it will be pointless for the most part as I think AMD has also not increased the pipeline that much to accommodate this wider architecture.

I think Navi 33 is going to be 1.2 to 1.3x a navi 23 but at 120watts instead of 165 watts.

I think navi 31 clocks are going to be more like 2.6-2.8ghz and have power more in the 330 range as the cooler AMD has kind of previewed so far does not look like a 400 watt cooler. That is just something slightly bigger than 2 slots if not a 2 slot card. When you add the ray tracing increase, it helps AMD claim of a greater than 1.5x performance/watt increase.

In other words, N31 below 4080?

 

[maddie]

I think we are going to get something along the lines of 1.6 to 1.7x the performance in real world performance vs a 6900xt. Ray tracing performance will be great than 2x.

If the angstronomics is correct, whatever AMD did to double the number of shaders was very cheap in terms of silicon as Navi 33 die is smaller than navi 23 yet they have doubled the number of shaders.

Combined with the very minor transistor density improvement of TSMC 6nm, I think this architecture is going to be like amphere were compute goes up but gaming performance is going to be quite modest relative to the compute increase.

However power consumption will not increase that much and it will be pointless for the most part as I think AMD has also not increased the pipeline that much to accommodate this wider architecture.

I think Navi 33 is going to be 1.2 to 1.3x a navi 23 but at 120watts instead of 165 watts.

I think navi 31 clocks are going to be more like 2.6-2.8ghz and have power more in the 330 range as the cooler AMD has kind of previewed so far does not look like a 400 watt cooler. That is just something slightly bigger than 2 slots if not a 2 slot card. When you add the ray tracing increase, it helps AMD claim of a greater than 1.5x performance/watt increase.

I think everything you wrote here is a big miss.

 

[exquisitechar]

I think we are going to get something along the lines of 1.6 to 1.7x the performance in real world performance vs a 6900xt. Ray tracing performance will be great than 2x.

If the angstronomics is correct, whatever AMD did to double the number of shaders was very cheap in terms of silicon as Navi 33 die is smaller than navi 23 yet they have doubled the number of shaders.

Combined with the very minor transistor density improvement of TSMC 6nm, I think this architecture is going to be like amphere were compute goes up but gaming performance is going to be quite modest relative to the compute increase.

However power consumption will not increase that much and it will be pointless for the most part as I think AMD has also not increased the pipeline that much to accommodate this wider architecture.

I think Navi 33 is going to be 1.2 to 1.3x a navi 23 but at 120watts instead of 165 watts.

I think navi 31 clocks are going to be more like 2.6-2.8ghz and have power more in the 330 range as the cooler AMD has kind of previewed so far does not look like a 400 watt cooler. That is just something slightly bigger than 2 slots if not a 2 slot card. When you add the ray tracing increase, it helps AMD claim of a greater than 1.5x performance/watt increase.

You're underestimating Navi 33, I think. Navi 31 should clock higher than that too. I don't think ray tracing will be necessary for a >1.5x perf/watt improvement.

 

[moinmoin]

Yeah I know, but I didn't know there were so huge difference within EU.

Yeah, it's kind of sad really considering not only companies but also customers can easily profit of the single market, the latter just doesn't happen often enough as the disparity in prices shows. I can only guess that that's mostly language barriers at work there.

I think most of TSMC contracts are in USD. You will notice, in TSMC earnings report, that their earnings (announced in Taiwanese dollars) fluctuate. When dollar is high, earnings are higher.

Bookkeeping is likely done in USD for most Western customers, payment may still be done in TWD considering plenty ODMs then building products around the chips are Taiwanese (even some big ones with massive factories in China, e.g. Foxconn etc.).

 

[eek2121]

AMD cards aren’t going to use the problematic 12VHPWR (PCIE 5.0) connector, apparently, so that is good.

 

[biostud]

AMD cards aren’t going to use the problematic 12VHPWR (PCIE 5.0) connector, apparently, so that is good.

And maybe not 450W either?

 

[Aapje]

AMD cards aren’t going to use the problematic 12VHPWR (PCIE 5.0) connector, apparently, so that is good.

Where do you get this from?

 

[DiogoDX]

Where do you get this from?

I think it is from igorslab pcb leak.

AMD Radeon RX 7900XT - Possible board design and new findings | Exclusive | igor´sLAB

While the protagonists of the sensational leaks are currently fighting among themselves and wrestling for the ultimate interpretative sovereignty of NVIDIA and AMD products, I grabbed a bag of virtual…

www.igorslab.de

 

[RnR_au]

Where do you get this from?

Maybe this tweet...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584856217335517186

 

[Aapje]

I think it is from igorslab pcb leak.

Yes, but he does say the rather puzzling:

• In the presumed board design, we see three 6+2 sockets instead of the 12VHPWR. I’ll leave it open whether this PCIe 5.0 connector will make it onto the final cards.

This seems to suggest that we can't take those three connectors in the picture as good evidence that they will choose this.

 

[Aapje]

@RnR_au

Thank you!

I'm really hoping that AMD will go Chuck Norris on Nvidia and they will face some real competition for a change.

 

[RnR_au]

I'm really hoping that AMD will go Chuck Norris on Nvidia and they will face some real competition for a change.

Indeed

Does anyone know if the RDNA3 arch lends itself to a possible 2 GDC board with a potential of 8-12 MDC's ?

 

[Aapje]

They've already got that done for CDNA 2 on the MI200 cards. However, I don't foresee them doing that yet for RDNA 3, because of the latency risks and known issues with SLI, which are far less of an issue for workstation workloads.

I would expect that in RDNA 4 at the soonest.

 

[Hans Gruber]

Do we get to see review sample scores on Nov. 3rd or do they show shiny new cards that have no real world performance numbers until December?

 

[Aapje]

We get their own benchmarks during the presentation, like is standard. Review release date will be shortly before the actual sales.