Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[jpiniero]

We will see what the reception is.

But just a couple of days ago, the top CPU on AMD.com was 6950XT for $999.

Today, it dropped to $849.

This, to me, implies that 7900XT will be $999

Maybe the XTX ~1099 - 1199.

I still think it completely depends on it's performance compared to Ada with maybe a small discount. It becomes foggier if you throw in RT into the mix. Since we don't have a legit source on actual competitiveness, it'd be tough to guess on pricing.

The cut N31 should be easily faster than the 4080 16 GB in raster though.

 

[Tigerick]

AMD RDNA 3 GPU Unveil "together we advance_gaming” Live Blog (1pm PT/20:00 UTC)

www.anandtech.com

3 more hours to go

 

[Saylick]

We will see what the reception is.

But just a couple of days ago, the top CPU on AMD.com was 6950XT for $999.

Today, it dropped to $849.

This, to me, implies that 7900XT will be $999

Maybe the XTX ~1099 - 1199.

The 6950XT would have to drop a little more if the 7900XT is $999, but I do agree with you regarding where RDNA 3 pricing likely falls.

Having the same $999 price going from 6900XT to 7900XT makes a lot of sense from a marketing perspective, while offering 40-50% more performance. The 7900XTX, which offers another 20% on top of that, should be >20% more costly, so $1299 makes sense.

 

[Mopetar]

Although their GPUs will be the main focus of this, I hope they throw in a sneak preview of a Zen 4 v-cache CPU at the end.

Anyone have any bold predictions for the event today? It almost feels a little anticlimactic right now given how fast the hype train is typically rolling through in this thread. The calm before the storm?

 

[eek2121]

Although their GPUs will be the main focus of this, I hope they throw in a sneak preview of a Zen 4 v-cache CPU at the end.

Anyone have any bold predictions for the event today? It almost feels a little anticlimactic right now given how fast the hype train is typically rolling through in this thread. The calm before the storm?

At least 2 people will be disappointed, but at least 5 will not be.

In all seriousness, AMD undercut NVIDIA only by a small amount (price wise) last gen. While I am not expecting them to be significantly cheaper than the 4xxx series, it would be a pleasant surprise if they kept pricing for halo tier cards somewhat close to what they were last year.

EDIT: On the AT site, this was noted: For example, any “Radeon RX 7000 series” branding is completely absent from all of AMD’s official communiques.

Anyone expect a rebrand? I am curious if they will skip 7xxx or if maybe they rebrand Radeon to something else. My hunch says neither, but it is curious AMD hasn’t said anything about Radeon in reference to next gen.

 

[Saylick]

Although their GPUs will be the main focus of this, I hope they throw in a sneak preview of a Zen 4 v-cache CPU at the end.

Anyone have any bold predictions for the event today? It almost feels a little anticlimactic right now given how fast the hype train is typically rolling through in this thread. The calm before the storm?

I have high hopes that RDNA 3 can beat the 4090 given that a TON of stuff under the hood was changed, updated, or improved, but the reasonable man in me says I should temper expectations. As much as we want AMD to strike for the crown, we know historically they tend not to. Instead, they've preferred to offer a balanced product that is more accessible to the masses, even if the performance isn't chart-topping.

Bold predictions would be if we got a 3D cache version of N31 that also launches at the same time as the other two SKUs. Another bold prediction would be if we get a glimpse of Zen 4 X3D with top N31 leveraging latest AMD CPU+GPU tech.

 

[jpiniero]

If there was a sneak peek at anything, I'd say Dragon Range+Mobile N32.

 

[Mopetar]

EDIT: On the AT site, this was noted: For example, any “Radeon RX 7000 series” branding is completely absent from all of AMD’s official communiques.

Anyone expect a rebrand? I am curious if they will skip 7xxx or if maybe they rebrand Radeon to something else. My hunch says neither, but it is curious AMD hasn’t said anything about Radeon in reference to next gen.

That would be really weird considering they launched Zen 4 as the 7000 series in what to me looked like (at least in part) an attempt to align the numbering for their CPUs and GPUs.

I think we'll see a rebrand when they get closer to going beyond a 99XX which would probably be whatever comes after RDNA as the 9xxxx series cards would be RDNA5 and they architecture would be getting quite long in the tooth by that point.

Intel just kept chugging along though and have a 13xxx series now, so it wouldn't be completely unprecedented for it to continue, but by the same token we'd have almost surely have seen some kind of leak if there were new branding. It's even harder to stealth launch something like that than the actual physical product.

 

[Mopetar]

Bold predictions would be if we got a 3D cache version of N31 that also launches at the same time as the other two SKUs. Another bold prediction would be if we get a glimpse of Zen 4 X3D with top N31 leveraging latest AMD CPU+GPU tech.

Showing off a v-cache RDNA3 would be even cooler, but I don't know if they'd do that unless they have a launch date for it that's very soon. Otherwise they essentially kill demand for the card they are launching.

It seems more likely they would keep that in the chamber to roll out in response to a 4090 Ti. If we see something like that, I think it would be a product that they intend to launch within 3 months and that we'd get performance figures and price for it so we can see how it fits in the product stack. Even if it won't be available until early next year, I could see them doing it if it lets them secure the performance crown. They would be able to have a 4090 in hand to compare it to, so it's definitely possible.

What they do against the 4080 will be far more interesting in my opinion. I think they can easily beat that and at a much better price. I also wonder if their plans have changed at all due to the 12 GB 4080 getting canceled. Does AMD also hold back whatever they might have launched to compete with that?

 

[Rekluse]

While difficult in terms of their current high ASP strategy, I think it's downright silly to release a 1k+ card in a client computing market that has clearly softened. Especially when your main competitor is desperately slashing prices to get rid of old stock.

$999 Serves the purpose of shutting down nVidia's downrange sales while getting word of mouth out on how much of a kingslayer AMD is for the price and subsequently gaining marketshare. Which, given market conditions, would smash team green despite AMD not taking the crown cleanly on performance nor having the brand clout.

 

[blckgrffn]

Posting this screen shot here from AMD.com direct store here for posterity. I think it'd be silly to spend the extra money on the 6950xt over the 6900xt, but those bundles would make it easier to adjust my thinking! 6900XT @ $679 is a value at this moment, who knows what the day holds!

 

[Karnak]

While difficult in terms of their current high ASP strategy,

That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

If they got a GPU which can match the 4090 (even though if it's only in raster) they'll price it accordingly. Not as high as NV - because AMD simply can't to be honest, mainly because of 'mindshare' - but I'd say somewhere around $1400. Still a lot, but $200 less is still a decent amount.

 

[Mopetar]

If nothing else it should indicate that AMD is eventually (no idea when Navi 32 will hit the market) going to offer 6900XT performance for ~$700.

 

[blckgrffn]

If nothing else it should indicate that AMD is eventually (no idea when Navi 32 will hit the market) going to offer 6900XT performance for ~$700.

Well they better, because I could buy a 6900XT for less now and just deal with some transient power spikes.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

If nothing else it should indicate that AMD is eventually (no idea when Navi 32 will hit the market) going to offer 6900XT performance for ~$700.

I know what you mean, but the 6900XT can be had for less than that now. LOL. Of course the new card will do it on much less power.

 

[maddie]

That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

If they got a GPU which can match the 4090 (even though if it's only in raster) they'll price it accordingly. Not as high as NV - because AMD simply can't to be honest, mainly because of 'mindshare' - but I'd say somewhere around $1400. Still a lot, but $200 less is still a decent amount.

The problem with that thinking, if they're so inclined, is that $200 extra for NVIDIA is very acceptable to the buyers in that price range.

 

[jpiniero]

What they do against the 4080 will be far more interesting in my opinion. I think they can easily beat that and at a much better price. I also wonder if their plans have changed at all due to the 12 GB 4080 getting canceled. Does AMD also hold back whatever they might have launched to compete with that?

They already have a product for that - the 6900 XT. Which currently goes for less than the 4080 12 GB. Albeit at very crappy margins...

 

[Saylick]

That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

If they got a GPU which can match the 4090 (even though if it's only in raster) they'll price it accordingly. Not as high as NV - because AMD simply can't to be honest, mainly because of 'mindshare' - but I'd say somewhere around $1400. Still a lot, but $200 less is still a decent amount.

I have to agree with @maddie here. $200 is too close.

If we were in the midst of the crypto boom, I'd agree, but the macro situation has changed. Given that N31 has a slightly higher BOM cost in comparison to N21, they should just aim to keep margins roughly in line with those they got when N21 sold at MSRP. Asking for higher margins in this economic environment is just greed, in my opinion. Instead, they should use any available wafer supply from TSMC to ship more units.

 

[utahraptor]

Does anyone know how many flagship cards they sell on a given generation? I consider myself fairly well off and I would like to buy one of these or even the 4090 but it seems I already missed that boat as I won’t pay a scalper. I only know one person that would buy a top tier card so I just wonder where they all end up. I fear this will be another 2 years of not being able to pay msrp.

 

[Rekluse]

That's why they won't do it. Su was pretty clear in terms of AMD's ASP and cutting prices in general during their Earnings Call a few days ago.

And it's both sad and borderline delusional. AMD, specifically in Graphics, is still perceived as an also ran compared to nVidia . They just don't have the brand recognition to pull it off. It's a marketshare momentum thing.

The more people buy AMD cards, the more people are willing to buy AMD in the future. The less brand loyalists for the competitor. Especially when you have a BOM price advantage and a less messed up inventory situation than they do.

It really is tactically short sighted to go the high ASP route on this one.

Mixing up their CPU strategy and positioning with their GPU strategy and positioning. Zen 1 had to offer more cores at a lower price than intel, Only in the last 2 gen's have they finally earned their pricing parity position and really go high ASP.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

Agreed on pricing. It should be priced the same as the 4080 which will make it compelling. It is highly unlikely to have feature parity with Nvidia. Probably lag behind on ray tracing. And unless they unveil hardware FSR that is as good or better, that is another box unchecked for the sales and marketing.

If they didn't learn their lesson with AM5 pricing and the cold reception, it will be ugly for them.

 

[jpiniero]

Agreed on pricing. It should be priced the same as the 4080 which will make it compelling.

Well, the 4080 16 GB is $1199. The cut N31 should be substantially faster in raster.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

I fear this will be another 2 years of not being able to pay msrp.

Nvidia is manipulating supply to clear out 30 series inventory. AMD is likely to have plenty of stock on release because as pointed out above, supply isn't so stacked up.

 

[H T C]

If they didn't learn their lesson with AM5 pricing and the cold reception, it will be ugly for them.

They should "aim for the jugular": price the fastest card in their lineup LOWER than the 4080 16 GB, while revising the price of their 6000 series YET AGAIN. This would also make nVida's stock of 3000 series cards that much harder to get rid of.

AMD's profits would take a nose dive with such a move, but NOWHERE NEAR as much as nVidia's, but that's not the best part: @ a time where lower prices matter more than ever before (in recent years), this SHOULD make their market share rise substantially, PROVIDED they manage to have enough cards for sale.

THEN, with their RDNA 4 (or whatever it's called), they could raise prices again (not to "stupid" levels PLEASE) and, with much higher market share, they should make A TON of money.

 

[gdansk]

Agreed on pricing. It should be priced the same as the 4080 which will make it compelling. It is highly unlikely to have feature parity with Nvidia. Probably lag behind on ray tracing. And unless they unveil hardware FSR that is as good or better, that is another box unchecked for the sales and marketing.

If they didn't learn their lesson with AM5 pricing and the cold reception, it will be ugly for them.

And at $1200 it is still a higher ASP than before so they satisfy their finance wonks.