Question Speculation: RDNA3 + CDNA2 Architectures Thread

[uzzi38]

Man I have been dying to make this one for a while now.

First rumours for RDNA3 are here so new thread time!

Just going to start off with this one for now: kopite7kimi on Twitter: "@VideoCardz Ah, I mean a simple mcm design with 10240 cores is not enough. Because the lift from RDNA2 to RDNA3 is much bigger than from RDNA1 to RDNA2. We should expect many big improvements in GFX11. 🤔" / Twitter

 

[Heartbreaker]

AMD Radeon RX 7600 8GB graphics card spotted in Asian store - VideoCardz.com

Imminent launch of Radeon RX 7600 confirmed by retailer We received an anonymous tip with Radeon RX 7600 already on shelves. According to the photograph and the information that was provided, an undisclosed store in Asia has AMD Radeon RX 7600 graphics cards in stock. This does not mean that...

videocardz.com

Ooh, Videocardz seems to have gotten a picture of the Sapphire Pulse 7600. I'd say... maybe legit? Of note it would be the full design and not the cut. I guess if this is legit then the 7500 would be the cut model and the 7700 would be the 16 GB clamshell... if they go ahead with either of those.

If 7600 is N33 Full/8GB, then 7700 (if it exists) would more likely be a N32 12GB, I don't even know if N33/16GB is enough for 7600 XT.

 

[jpiniero]

Full die too, and purportedly $250,

If it ends up being $250 then I think that pretty much confirms that it's basically just Navi 24 all over again... and it's desktop release is just to dump the dies.

That's probably a realistic price though given that it's likely not meaningfully faster than the 6700 and has less VRAM.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

If it ends up being $250 then I think that pretty much confirms that it's basically just Navi 24 all over again... and it's desktop release is just to dump the dies.

That's probably a realistic price though given that it's likely not meaningfully faster than the 6700 and has less VRAM.

- If it lets me grab a used 6600XT or 6600 for my HTPC for $100 then I'm all in.

 

[jpiniero]

- If it lets me grab a used 6600XT or 6600 for my HTPC for $100 then I'm all in.

Seemingly right now (the 6600 XT anyway) used isn't going for much less than new right now at eBay. There was one advertised as not working that sold at $90.

 

[maddie]

If it ends up being $250 then I think that pretty much confirms that it's basically just Navi 24 all over again... and it's desktop release is just to dump the dies.

That's probably a realistic price though given that it's likely not meaningfully faster than the 6700 and has less VRAM.

What exactly do you mean by dump?

At, or below cost?
Can't sell elsewhere?

If memory prices are as low as the spot market implies, & 6nm is at low capacity, & this is a smaller sized die than N23, & the board + assembly fabricators are hunting work, can you not see any scenario where this could be low priced, profitable, & a big seller?

By the way, you always said "priced at least as high as the N23 variants". Remember, why the change? I'm curious.

 

[jpiniero]

What exactly do you mean by dump?

They must have greatly overestimated the interest in mobile N33 by OEMs. Same thing happened with Navi 24... if they accurately forecasted the demand, it would have never of gotten a desktop release.

By the way, you always said "priced at least as high as the N23 variants". Remember, why the change? I'm curious.

Basically they have two options - sell it at the price they would want to... or sell it at what's realistic. You would think the former would make more sense, and they could cut prices later once RDNA 2 is compeltely wiped out...

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Seemingly right now (the 6600 XT anyway) used isn't going for much less than new right now at eBay. There was one advertised as not working that sold at $90.

-I've noticed that and it's annoying the hell out of me. I think the demand for sub $300 cards is completely wrecking the used market right now.

Not a lot of room between the 6750/6700/6600 models right now used, all of them seem to be crammed between $300-$200, then a pretty decent sized price jump up to the 6800 and up.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

They must have greatly overestimated the interest in mobile N33 by OEMs. Same thing happened with Navi 24... if they accurately forecasted the demand, it would have never of gotten a desktop release.

-No one is more painfully aware of how much OEMs and especially laptop OEMs prefer NV over AMD, than AMD is.

I can't imagine AMD deliberately over-provisioned those dies, nor the N33 die, without ironclad contracts to buy in place.

N33 is clearly designed to be cheap as hell and to flood the market. Of course AMD might have preferred fat margins, but I think they're in a position to adapt to market demands and move a lot of inventory for a lot less.

 

[Ajay]

I assume N32 is decently more than N22 but less than N21. I would agree that N22's original MSRPs would be unrealistic for N32 given the current state of the market.

It’s got to have N21 performance, or no one will buy it. Since we’ve now be told it’s coming, it has to perform that well, and will need to be priced around $650. Otherwise, sales would wouldn't be very good I imagine.

typo, derp..

 

[jpiniero]

I can't imagine AMD deliberately over-provisioned those dies, nor the N33 die, without ironclad contracts to buy in place.

Navi 24 suggests otherwise.

and will need to be priced around $650.

The N32 model would probally have to be under $500, maybe under $450. You can see why I have such great skepticism that AMD would think it would be a good idea to go ahead with the release.

 

[Rigg]

Full N32 is a 4070 competitor. It needs to have at least 4070 raster performance, use no more than 225 watts, have 16 GB of VRAM, and a $500 price tag to have a good chance to succeed in this market. It's launch should also probably be accompanied by an FSR 3 announcement. I don't believe for a second AMD can't put that card out and make a good enough margin to justify it. AMD gonna AMD though.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Full N32 is a 4070 competitor. It needs to have at least 4070 raster performance, use no more than 225 watts, have 16 GB of VRAM, and a $500 price tag to have a good chance to succeed in this market. It's launch should also probably be accompanied by an FSR 3 announcement. I don't believe for a second AMD can't put that card out and make a good enough margin to justify it. AMD gonna AMD though.

What you are describing is an upgraded 6800XT selling for significantly less than the old end of life model that they already amortized the initial costs, and made profit on.

That seems unlikely in the extreme.

 

[IEC]

This ain't the perfect storm of crypto boom 2.0 + COVID-19 upgrade fever + WFH all leading to GPUs selling at any price.

We're in the midst of a smoldering recession with the worst PC demand in x86 history. And that's with layoffs only starting, with plenty more to come.

Prices need to be reasonable, or people will just not buy.

 

[Rigg]

What you are describing is an upgraded 6800XT selling for significantly less than the old end of life model that they already amortized the initial costs, and made profit on.

That seems unlikely in the extreme.

No I'm not. I'm describing a card that uses 75 watts less power, has significantly better RT performance, and is priced appropriately for the current market conditions. 7900 XTX launched at the same MSRP as 6900 XT. Why should we expect to pay significantly more than the 6700 XT MSRP for full N32? Don't bring up 6750 XT. That was nothing but a pandemic price grab refresh.

 

[Heartbreaker]

Prices need to be reasonable, or people will just not buy.

People are still buying, but volumes are down and likely to stay that way while economic conditions persist. The people worried about food/housing/jobs, aren't holding out for better GPU prices, they are just out of the luxury toy market during economic upheaval. Lower prices will get you lower margins, but it won't return GPU sales volume to boom times during a downturn, so they aren't going to make it up on volume.

If AMD can't even get the clearance price of the old 6800XT that already recovered up front costs, down to $500, they are not going to want to price a 16GB N32 based version, that has 100 million dollar up front deficit to recover at that price. Better to never do it all from their perspective because if the price has to be that low, they might never recover up front costs. Though for that to happen the decision would need to have been made long ago to never even invest N32.

If it's 12GB version then they might do $500, but not the 16GB version.

 

[maddie]

People are still buying, but volumes are down and likely to stay that way while economic conditions persist. The people worried about food/housing/jobs, aren't holding out for better GPU prices, they are just out of the luxury toy market during economic upheaval. Lower prices will get you lower margins, but it won't return GPU sales volume to boom times during a downturn, so they aren't going to make it up on volume.

If AMD can't even get the clearance price of the old 6800XT that already recovered up front costs, down to $500, they are not going to want to price a 16GB N32 based version, that has 100 million dollar up front deficit to recover at that price. Better to never do it all from their perspective because if the price has to be that low, they might never recover up front costs. Though for that to happen the decision would need to have been made long ago to never even invest N32.

If it's 12GB version then they might do $500, but not the 16GB version.

Some interesting reasoning here. Do I misunderstand upfront costs?

"Better to never do it all from their perspective because if the price has to be that low, they might never recover up front costs"

 

[insertcarehere]

No I'm not. I'm describing a card that uses 75 watts less power, has significantly better RT performance, and is priced appropriately for the current market conditions. 7900 XTX launched at the same MSRP as 6900 XT. Why should we expect to pay significantly more than the 6700 XT MSRP for full N32? Don't bring up 6750 XT. That was nothing but a pandemic price grab refresh.

The 7900XT definitely didn't launch at the same price as the 6800XT though, and is more cut down relative to 7900XTX vs what 6800XT was to 6900XT. Even with the new uh, "street" price of $800 it's still a significantly more expensive product lineup gen-to-gen.

AMD and Nvidia have basically decided to significantly curtail the price/performance advantage of lower end parts versus their true flagships, I expect that to continue with N32.

 

[Rigg]

The 7900XT definitely didn't launch at the same price as the 6800XT though, and is more cut down relative to 7900XTX vs what 6800XT was to 6900XT. Even with the new uh, "street" price of $800 it's still a significantly more expensive product lineup gen-to-gen.

AMD and Nvidia have basically decided to significantly curtail the price/performance advantage of lower end parts versus their true flagships, I expect that to continue with N32.

The 7900 XT also got crapped on by reviewers and is still being rejected by consumers because of it's MSRP. At this point I'm just repeating myself from earlier in the thread though so I should probably stop beating the dead horse.

AMD very well could launch full N32 for $600. I'm not saying they won't launch at $600, I'm saying it will be a failure if they do. They'll have to street price it for $500 after a few months sitting on shelves anyway. They might as well make it $500 MSRP so they get good reviews and try to win some mind share. At this point the 4070 probably needs a price cut. If Nvidia timed that with a $600 N32 launch it'll be a 1st round knock out.

All that being said, It's AMD marketing so it'll probably be $600 MSRP.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

AMD very well could launch full N32 for $600. I'm not saying they won't launch at $600, I'm saying it will be a failure if they do. They'll have to street price it for $500 after a few months sitting on shelves anyway. They might as well make it $500 MSRP so they get good reviews and try to win some mind share. At this point the 4070 probably needs a price cut. If Nvidia timed that with a $600 N32 launch it'll be a 1st round knock out.

All that being said, It's AMD marketing so it'll probably be $600 MSRP.

-So what you're saying is they're gonna launch it for $600.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Navi 24 suggests otherwise.

- We don't actually know what Navi 24 suggests.

There is plenty of speculation, but no smoking gun or proof that it was specifically an oversupply of laptop chips forced to become a desktop part.

It was released in January 2022, nearly two years into the pandemic and deep into supply shortage and crypto boom territory.

While I don't dispute that N24 was conceived as a laptop first part, I don't think the desktop release was anything else than pure opportunism on the part of AMD to fill a market demand (cheap GPUs) with what they had to fill the role at the time.

 

[Rigg]

-So what you're saying is they're gonna launch it for $600.

Hold on I'll ask my fortune teller.........

 

[Timorous]

People are still buying, but volumes are down and likely to stay that way while economic conditions persist. The people worried about food/housing/jobs, aren't holding out for better GPU prices, they are just out of the luxury toy market during economic upheaval. Lower prices will get you lower margins, but it won't return GPU sales volume to boom times during a downturn, so they aren't going to make it up on volume.

If AMD can't even get the clearance price of the old 6800XT that already recovered up front costs, down to $500, they are not going to want to price a 16GB N32 based version, that has 100 million dollar up front deficit to recover at that price. Better to never do it all from their perspective because if the price has to be that low, they might never recover up front costs. Though for that to happen the decision would need to have been made long ago to never even invest N32.

If it's 12GB version then they might do $500, but not the 16GB version.

If AMD want to recover their already incurred upfront costs they need to price 7800XT at a level that will sell.

No good slapping a $600 MSRP on it and having them collect dust on shelves because all AMD sell then is the 1st batch of chips to AIBs and then nothing.

Also a 4060Ti 16GB is going to force AMDs hand. Even if that part is worse than the 7800XT if NV price it at $450-500 a lot of people will swing that way for DLSS3, RT and NV mindshare.

That to me means 7800 and 7700XT have to both be 4MCD designs.

 

[Kaluan]

RX 7600 XT/7650 XT either doesn't exist, or will be a future launch based on heavily cut down N32

IMO

 

[psolord]

Hold on I'll ask my fortune teller.........

Would! xD

 

[Aapje]

RX 7600 XT/7650 XT either doesn't exist, or will be a future launch based on heavily cut down N32

Or it could be a 16 Gb clamshell of N33...