Speculation: Ryzen 3000 series

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Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
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I can't believe it will premere with less than the 2990wx. I would say 48core tops, 24 core min. Then 64 core later.

I wouldn't be so sure this time around. Demand has been very high and with the recent rumors about 7nm production at TSMC it may end up that way. They may do a staggered launch like they did on AM4, with a 24/32 core being the initial top offering. Then, say late Q1 next year introduce a 48 core and perhaps 64 core.
 

HurleyBird

Platinum Member
Apr 22, 2003
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I can't believe it will premere with less than the 2990wx. I would say 48core tops, 24 core min. Then 64 core later.

I can't help but imagine that this is a function of AMD's counter-intuitive binning strategy of more cores == higher clock-speeds. The 3900X still not being anywhere close to meeting demand (even though there are 2 cores disabled per chiplet!), the 3950X delay, the boost behaviour thing, and Thread Ripper 3 starting at only 24 cores all together just makes it sound like AMD grossly mis-predicted yields for high end parts. They can get a lot of technically usable dies, but not many with the characteristics they're looking at for their high end parts.
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
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I can't help but imagine that this is a function of AMD's counter-intuitive binning strategy of more cores == higher clock-speeds. The 3900X still not being anywhere close to meeting demand (even though there are 2 cores disabled per chiplet!), the 3950X delay, the boost behaviour thing, and Thread Ripper 3 starting at only 24 cores all together just makes it sound like AMD grossly mis-predicted yields for high end parts. They can get a lot of technically usable dies, but not many with the characteristics they're looking at for their high end parts.

Could be the didn't anticipate the demand. AMD lowered the entry cost to a 12 core by so much, I'm sure a lot of people wanted one.I wouldn't be surprised if AMD considered dual sourcing TSMC and Samsung next time around. Not sure how that would work, but they may consider it.
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
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Does Samsung even have a node that can perform well enough for Zen2 right now?

Pretty sure their 7nm contains some EUV. They wouldn't go to Samsung now, but maybe Zen 3 could be TSMC 7nm+ and some models on Samsung 7nm? I don't think it's likely, just that it is possible. I think my words were "wouldn't be surprised".
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,035
11,620
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Pretty sure their 7nm contains some EUV.


Doesn't have any info on node performance there, but it looks like 7nm LPP from Samsung would be the one to use. Would not be surprised if AMD lost some clockspeed switching to Samsung though. That being said, GF should have just kept licensing nodes from Samsung. They did good work adapting 14nm LPP to 12nm. If they had licensed 7nm LPP, they could iterate upon it and serve as a second-source for AMD products instead of being the also-ran they are today.
 
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Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
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I think we saw that coming the 2990wx just had too many compromises just to pump up the compute power. But Lisa did say core count would go up and the *80 chipset and platform seems a bit wasted if it stops at 24 cores. I could see the 24 core as top clocked unit might make sense as the introduction at higher cost before bringing out the 32 core version. Ala 3900x vs 3950x.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,231
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But Lisa did say core count would go up and the *80 chipset and platform seems a bit wasted if it stops at 24 cores.

I lack to see why so many here even claim this. Even the anandtech article is pretty clear:

These parts will start at 24 cores.

emphasis added. Start at 24 cores. Eg, no 16 core model but certainly more than 24 cores.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
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There is no way AMD will disable SMT on anything besides the low end Ryzens. This isn't low end, its just low power, and no removal of the X has ever meant a feature difference so far.
 

DarthKyrie

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2016
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There is no way AMD will disable SMT on anything besides the low end Ryzens. This isn't low end, its just low power, and no removal of the X has ever meant a feature difference so far.

The X on all Ryzen CPUs has meant that it has full XFR instead of the half that the non-X versions have, nothing should change.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
5,437
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The X on all Ryzen CPUs has meant that it has full XFR instead of the half that the non-X versions have, nothing should change.
The X is just market setting name. It doesn't have anything to do with xfr and Zen 2 stuff doesn't really have XFR. Chances are the x has more to do with "extreme" then anything else.
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
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The X is just market setting name. It doesn't have anything to do with xfr and Zen 2 stuff doesn't really have XFR. Chances are the x has more to do with "extreme" then anything else.
In the 2000 series, the X did mean better XFR, and PBO. In the 3000 series it just means a little better bin, and a higher stock TDP.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
5,437
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In the 2000 series, the X did mean better XFR, and PBO. In the 3000 series it just means a little better bin, and a higher stock TDP.
No, it meant high performance. Always did just that high performance also included (with XFR). But never specifying how much XFR, and non X CPUs included XFR. The if anything the roles are reversed XFR gets its name from being associated with X series chips.
 

arandomguy

Senior member
Sep 3, 2013
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That being said, GF should have just kept licensing nodes from Samsung. They did good work adapting 14nm LPP to 12nm. If they had licensed 7nm LPP, they could iterate upon it and serve as a second-source for AMD products instead of being the also-ran they are today.

I doubt that was an option for GF. The original licensing deal was almost certainly only agreed to by Samsung in order to win the contract with Apple over TSMC. Apple wanted a secondary source as hedge against Samsung meeting capacity. GF was effectively a non competitive in the long term entity Samsung could work with. Samsung continuing to license to GF is not beneficial to Samsung especially as it is a much more established player now, certainly not for any reasonable (or realistic) costs that GF would or could pay.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,035
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Samsung continuing to license to GF is not beneficial to Samsung especially as it is a much more established player now, certainly not for any reasonable (or realistic) costs that GF would or could pay.

The only term that works for Samsung is allowing provisional leasing of fab space to Samsung to help meet demand on a need basis, if Samsung actually needs the extra capacity (apparently they don't right now though). If Samsung essentially seeds GF with newer nodes, they can turn around and obligate GF to fab for them on a cost basis to handle overflow of demand. That would hurt GF under some circumstances, but it would keep them in the game. They might also have to sign some non-competes to prevent them from competing with Samsung for certain clients using licensed nodes and their derivatives. Obviously none of that happened so it's all speculation at this point.
 

Thunder 57

Platinum Member
Aug 19, 2007
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Well, there is more speculation of SMT4. I could see it because it could help with servers, but they already have so man threads available and Intel is in no position to catch up any time soon. For the desktop I doubt it helps at all. I really think it's just a trendy rumor that picked up steam awhile ago, and that we are looking at SMT2 in Zen 3.
 

LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
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SMT4 MAY have some usefulness in the desktop and mobile space with respect to power management. It's slightly easier on power to run one core at its peak efficiency point with respect to work done vs. power used and essentially power down the other cores in lightly loaded situations than to just run all the cores at low power levels to satisfy the thread needs in the same situations. This could be a big help when facing opponents that can effectively leverage highly optimized low power cores in combination with highly optimized high performance cores, such as some of Intel's latest efforts.
 

Gideon

Golden Member
Nov 27, 2007
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BTW, Microsoft announced new Surface laptops, also having AMD options.



Despite these currently using Picasso (12nm APU) this announcement has Renoir (7nm APU) written all over it, once it becomes available. The reasons to think so are numerous (and Ryan in the article also hints at some):
  • Even Intel versions have no Thunderbolt (just USB-C)
  • Rumoured upcoming 6 and 8 core versions (Ice Lake has no such models, see below, why they probably won't use Comet Lake)
  • These laptops are desgned from the start wiht a thin chassis with no space provisioned for Discreet GPU. Choosing Ice Lake and Renoir as the minimum clearly shows that Intel still think decent GPU performance is required (Comet Lake won't cut it)
  • Most importantly: They took all the time design and to validate these for AMD processors, despite the current-gen Ryzen being slightly slower than Ice Lake in both multithreaded and single-threaded workloads and only having marginally faster GPU than Ice-Lake with LPDDR4X-3733 memory. Yet, selling at the same price (if this is all they planned, AMDs models would surely be the cheaper option).
  • Reinforcing the last point: Microsoft clearly draws attention to the Ryzen chips (IMO even being unfairly to Intel for now, as 12nm certainly isn't better than 10nm Ice lake):
    The 15-inch Surface Laptop 3 comes with an AMD Ryzen Surface Edition processor. Panay called it the fastest processor that AMD has ever created, “bar none.” It’s also the fastest processor in its class, Panay claimed.
    IMO this is a bit over the top and unfair to Intel for the time being, as Ice Lake surely still outperforms Picasso. This would be a whole lot more true when talking about Renoir.

This in turn only feeds my suspicions, that Renoir was the product initially planned for GloFo 7nm process for the end of this year (AMD mentioned, they had one for that timeframe that got transferred to TSMC) and these announced Picasso chips are stop-gap replacements. After all, if Renoir was planned for TSMC 7nm all along 2020Q1, there is no reason why it couldn't have been Navi from the start (instead of a 20CU Vega).

TL;DR:
Really excited for a LPDDR4X-3733 equipped 20CU and 6-8 core Renoir Surface laptop. It would crush Ice Lake in both MT and GPU workloads and be really close in ST.
 

DarthKyrie

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2016
1,548
1,315
146
BTW, Microsoft announced new Surface laptops, also having AMD options.

Dispite these currently using Picasso (12nm APU), this announcement has Renoir (AMD's 7nm laptop APU) written all over it, once it becomes available. The reasons to think so are numerous (and even Ryan hints at some):
  • Even Intel versions have no Thunderbolt (just USB-C)
  • Rumoured upcoming 6 and 8 core versions (Ice Lake has no equivalent, why not Comet Lake? - see below)
  • The thin chassis with no GPU and only choosing Ice-Lake for Intel (as there is no room provisioned for a separate GPU)
  • Most importantly: They took all the time design and to validate these for AMD processors, despite the current-gen Ryzen being slightly slower than Ice Lake in both multithreaded and single-threaded workloads and only having marginally faster GPU than Ice-Lake with LPDDR4X-3733 memory. Yet, selling at the same price (if this is all they planned, AMDs models would surely be the cheaper option).
  • Microsoft clearly draws attention to the Ryzen chips (IMO even being unfairly to Intel for now, as 12nm certainly isnt better than 10nm Ice lake):

    IMO this is a bit over the top and unfair to Intel for the time being, as Ice Lake surely still outperforms Picasso. This would be a whole lot more true when talking about Renoir.

This in turn only feeds my suspicions, that Renoir was the product initially planned for GloFo 7nm process for the end of this year (AMD mentioned, they had one for that timeframe that got transferred to TSMC) and these announced Picasso chips are stop-gap replacements. After all, if Renoir was planned for TSMC 7nm all along 2020Q1, there is no reason why it couldn't have been Navi from the start (instead of a 20CU Vega).

TL;DR:
Really excited for a LPDDR4X-3733 equipped 20CU and 6-8 core Renoir Surface laptop. It would crush Ice Lake in both MT and GPU workloads and be reaaaallly close in ST.

I'm wondering if this might be another Semi-Custom design win for AMD and not an off the shelf APU, it would make sense for M$ to use something similar to what will be in the NextBox (XBox TWO or whatever they will call it).
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
56,554
10,171
126
If the information is correct, lounch date for Ryzen 5 3500/Ryzen 5 3500X is October 5.
Ooh so tasty! If 3500X is $150 or less, @ Newegg , on Oct. 5, I'm going to try to snag one... maybe two. We'll see.

Not sure how much performance loss there is with losing SMT for AVX2 workloads. Does each thread have it's own set of AVX2 architectural registers? So a 6C/12T 3600 would have 12 sets, and a 6C/6T 3500X, would only have 6 sets, but still have 32MB L3 cache. Decisions, decisions.

Would price-performance, for workloads like PrimeGrid (that may actually benefit throughput by disabling SMT or running only 6 threads, such that each thread can take full advantage of each core's pipelines, being highly-optimized code, be such that a 3500X w/32MB L3 wouldn't lose much to a 3600, and thus could be a better deal @ $150?

(Edit: I mean, I get it, the whole reason for the 3500X is to compete with the Intel i5-9400F in gaming benchmarks, which I'm sure that it will do well with, but I want something for compute, and I'd like to upgrade some of my other PCs, but if I can do it on a shoe-string budget without losing out on much capability, I'll do that.)

OTOH, I *really hope* that perhaps Newegg will run a combo special with the new CPUs (maybe not initially), with a nice 240mm CoolerMaster AIO WC kit. They had that as a combo at least twice so far with the 3600, would be nice of them to do it with the 3500X, then I'll get the combo instead of just the CPU. (Hint! Hint!)

Edit: Tiny bit OT, but a 3500X would also make a tasty gaming combo, with a GTX 1660 Super, or a RX 5500XT.
 
Last edited:

Kenmitch

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
8,505
2,249
136
Would price-performance, for workloads like PrimeGrid (that may actually benefit throughput by disabling SMT or running only 6 threads, such that each thread can take full advantage of each core's pipelines, being highly-optimized code, be such that a 3500X w/32MB L3 wouldn't lose much to a 3600, and thus could be a better deal @ $150?

Just disable SMT on your 3600 and see. Might not be 100% accurate, but it should be close I'd imagine.
 
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