Speculation: Ryzen 3000 series

[PotatoWithEarsOnSide]

In the moment Lisa Su said "This I/O chip was specially designed for desktop" you know it was a direct response to the "leaks", it definately influenced the AMD presentation to what point im not sure.

From the looks of it, Lisa Su was concerned about stability, that tells me its not the final ES, im not saying that is not coming this year.

So you think thar AMD designed a completely separate IO die for desktop at the last moment, specifically for the demo, and because of popular but unrealistic leaks?
That's one hell of a stretch.
What is the time frame on designing a new IO die, producing it, testing it etc?
There's no way that is a response to leaks.

If you had designed a separate IO die all along, why wouldn't you highlight that fact when specifically talking about AM4 Ryzen?
If Lisa Su was talking about it in reference to leaks, I'd expect her to be as blunt as saying "it's not a cut down Rome IO die." We can see from its dimensions that it is not, just like we could see that there's room for an additional chiplet on the package.

I don't think AMD would purposely discredit any YouTuber in a Keynote speech, let alone one that is widely seen as pro-AMD.


Edit: content removed as there was a clear case of mistaken identity with regards to what was claimed to have been posted. I have apologised privately for this, and will pay more attention in future.

 

[Anarchist Mae]

I think they're just getting frustrated by you abrasiveness and refusal to acknowledge what they say. I know I am.

 

[Shivansps]

edited

 

[Shivansps]

I think they're just getting frustrated by you abrasiveness and refusal to acknowledge what they say. I know I am.

Because everything started with a small coment about what he said then someone replied with a 1km long post saying that i did not watched the vídeos and etc. So i picked the ones to reply, if people want to defend him fine, i could not care less.

 

[Panino Manino]

Again: Quote a video where he said he had "deep contacts" with someone at AMD.

He didn't, but the way he talks he gives the impression that he is more "in" than he actually is. Like when he said before the event that he had received a new motherboard for testing.

Yes, most of the controversy is effect of what the public understood and believed from him, but like I said, he put his money on his "rumors/leaks" and acted as he was gonna give the last laugh. He didn't wanted to believe that it wouln't happen based on the information he had, and this happened probably because he isn't so "in" like he himself may had thought. How could he miss the announcement and release date by so many months otherwise?

The situation remains the same no matter the interpretations now, his reputation was a leaker is dead. (and I lament this, and hope his optimistic predictions about Navi are right)

Edit:

Zeppelin had a large uncore with lots of server functionality and IF that was not used in AM4 products. A look at the (Raven) RR die shows just how much that uncore can be reduced. Zepp dies were meant to communicate with another (up to 4 Zepps wired together); this seems to have been left intact in PR which is what enabled the huge core count in 2nd gen threatripper.

Even so, it would be a tight and possibly impossible fit for a 3CU igpu on the AM4 controller die. I'm x ing my thumbs and am hopeful they pulled this off though.

As far as 2nd chiplet, it seems the chiplets may be able to communicate with another in binary pairs (for cache sharing and coherency) similar to how CCX's on a Zepp die relate to another. So no complex logic and L4 may be needed on the AM4 controller in order for it to use two chiplets. See how the pairs are arranged in 7nm Epyc:

The big advantage here is that they can use less than prime chiplets in AM4 packaged double chiplet products, namely 12c 6+6 and 8c 4+4. This means they likely have some way of somewhat successfully identifying and matching imperfect chiplets.

Still, I would expect most 7nm Ryzen to be single chiplet products. 1x 6c, followed by single chiplet 8c. Thirdly followed by dual chiplet 12c.

Possibly some models with SMT disabled and halved L3.

Probably complemented with 12nm Pinnacles refreshed and rebinned.

And almost certainly complemented with the 11CU quadcore APUs based on the confirmed mobile APU.

Definitely the strongest and best product line ever.

Has anyone seen this?
It looks like a possible arrangement of the new CCXs:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comments/aei4jf

 

[Shivansps]

The situation remains the same no matter the interpretations now, his reputation was a leaker is dead. (and I lament this, and hope his optimistic predictions about Navi are right)

Not only Navi i hope to see 12 and 16C with such high clocks on AM4 as well.

 

[ozzy702]

I really highly doubt you watch his videos. He presents very little as fact. Most of it is discussing the probability of possibilities. He will go in depth on a lot of his history videos, but the speculation stuff is mostly if this then that.

I'm subscribed to AdoredTV in addition to Gamer's Nexus, Hardware Unboxed and a few other tech channels. I watch each and every one of them. AdoredTV simply ran with a story and presented it as truth aka "leak" from an insider. He has no more credibility than wccftech when it comes to future products.

 

[Schmide]

I'm subscribed to AdoredTV in addition to Gamer's Nexus, Hardware Unboxed and a few other tech channels. I watch each and every one of them. AdoredTV simply ran with a story and presented it as truth aka "leak" from an insider. He has no more credibility than wccftech when it comes to future products.

So it's a comprehension problem. Those who look for absolutes in speculative analysts are often the first to deny the methodology.

 

[mattiasnyc]

He didn't, but the way he talks he gives the impression that he is more "in" than he actually is. Like when he said before the event that he had received a new motherboard for testing.

Yes, most of the controversy is effect of what the public understood and believed from him,

Seems to me that most of this 'noise' is just "the public" misunderstanding things then. It looks to me like you and others essentially put words in his mouth and then try to make him look bad because you think he lied or misled people.

but like I said, he put his money on his "rumors/leaks" and acted as he was gonna give the last laugh. He didn't wanted to believe that it wouln't happen based on the information he had, and this happened probably because he isn't so "in" like he himself may had thought. How could he miss the announcement and release date by so many months otherwise?

The situation remains the same no matter the interpretations now, his reputation was a leaker is dead. (and I lament this, and hope his optimistic predictions about Navi are right)

"his reputation was [sic] a leaker"? huh?
When was he reputed to be a leaker?

I always saw his videos as one guy finding or being sent information and then evaluating it and then finally speculating on what we are likely to see in the future. Nothing else. Ever.

What are you guys smoking?

 

[mattiasnyc]

So it's a comprehension problem. Those who look for absolutes in speculative analysts are often the first to deny the methodology.

Very well stated. Concise and accurate in my view.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Not only Navi i hope to see 12 and 16C with such high clocks on AM4 as well.

AMD has repeatedly said Navi would take awhile, so don't hold your breath waiting for it. They're launching Radeon VII for a reason. And those clockspeeds? It's okay to hold out a little hope, but still.

 

[Panino Manino]

"his reputation was [sic] a leaker"? huh?
When was he reputed to be a leaker?

I always saw his videos as one guy finding or being sent information and then evaluating it and then finally speculating on what we are likely to see in the future. Nothing else. Ever.

What are you guys smoking?

So it's a comprehension problem. Those who look for absolutes in speculative analysts are often the first to deny the methodology.

I already explained what happened.
Yes, he wasn't a leaker.
Yet.
He was just that one guy that was doing good analysis. But he started to little by little back his predictions with "sources". He always talks about his sources which in part lead many to believe that he really had them, that AMD could be even using him as a easy and cheap way to create hype. And while many were wondering this possibility the spreadsheets came.
Just because you adds "a pinch of salt" to your videos doesn't excuse you of any responsibility. "Double the performance for even lower prices? Too good to be true? Takes it with a pinch of salt but it's totally possible guys, and for now I swear, it's all according to my own predictions!". I suspect that someone played confirmation bias with him, just feeding him what he wanted to hear based on what he had said in previous videos. And because the "source" was validating his dreams...

No, he wasn't a leaker, not exactly, but he was starting to convince the public that he had direct contact with and was becoming a channel for them. A place to vent information that other channels wouldn't risk telling, the reason for many (even me to some degree) to care about him. This changes everything, he went back to be "just" that weirdo that was right that one time with his wishful thinking.

 

[Schmide]

I already explained what happened.
Yes, he wasn't a leaker.
Yet.

Don't contradict yourself in one phrase. Yet?

He was just that one guy that was doing good analysis. But he started to little by little back his predictions with "sources". He always talks about his sources which in part lead many to believe that he really had them, that AMD could be even using him as a easy and cheap way to create hype. And while many were wondering this possibility the spreadsheets came.

So now it's a conspiracy theory where he's a pawn of AMD?

Just because you adds "a pinch of salt" to your videos doesn't excuse you of any responsibility. "Double the performance for even lower prices? Too good to be true? Takes it with a pinch of salt but it's totally possible guys, and for now I swear, it's all according to my own predictions!".

Is that a direct quote or hyperbole? If it is a direct quote I can't find it. Not to say it isn't there. You put quotes around it so it's your job to source it. Please source it!

Irregardless I bet in context it probably has more meaning with or without the salt

I suspect that someone played confirmation bias with him, just feeding him what he wanted to hear based on what he had said in previous videos. And because the "source" was validating his dreams...

He is a conduit for information. He aggregates known and unknown sources to form a consensus of probabilities.

You can have bad sources and still do good analysis.

No, he wasn't a leaker, not exactly, but he was starting to convince the public that he had direct contact with and was becoming a channel for them. A place to vent information that other channels wouldn't risk telling, the reason for many (even me to some degree) to care about him. This changes everything, he went back to be "just" that weirdo that was right that one time with his wishful thinking.

You guys are like climate change deniers, as if one imperfect outcome suddenly causes the house of cards to come falling down.

The big thing you miss. He owns mistakes and admits when he's wrong or off.

 

[mattiasnyc]

I already explained what happened.
Yes, he wasn't a leaker.
Yet.

Do you know what a "leak" is? A "leak" is someone within an organization that has confidential information and then leaks that information to someone outside of that organization. In order for Jim to be a "leaker" he would have to be employed by AMD and then also be leaking information that wasn't supposed to be made public.

So,

"his reputation was a leaker" becomes "Yes, he wasn't a leaker."

and

"As someone with "deep contacts"?" becomes when I ask where he said he had deep contacts "He didn't,"

Who is it that is making pretty absolute statements really? It seems it's you who is doing that, and then consistently retreating. He's a leaker. Then fine, he isn't. He's implied he's got deep contacts. Except he didn't...

he started to little by little back his predictions with "sources". He always talks about his sources which in part lead many to believe that he really had them

But we have no reason not to believe that he did have people feeding him information. He makes it clear that he doesn't know 100% that these sources are correct, and what we should take away from that is that he has people giving him information and it could be right and it could be wrong. He then gives an analysis of what he thinks is a reasonable interpretation of that information and what is a probable outcome.

Having a source is one thing. The source being credible and reliable is another. He even talks about that specifically in one of his videos. How is this so hard to separate?

that AMD could be even using him as a easy and cheap way to create hype.

Nonsense. Think about it for just a second:

1. People like you claim AdoredTV is overhyping upcoming CPUs
2. AMD then talks at CES and some are underwhelmed because of the hype
3. You're now saying AMD could have been using him to create hype....

...for a product that will get released maybe more than 6 months from now... How does AMD benefit from that hype??? If the CES talk had been used to launch a new CPU hype would have made sense for AMD, but as it turned out, not so much.

Just because you adds "a pinch of salt" to your videos doesn't excuse you of any responsibility.

Actually it sort of does. When you tell someone to take something with a pinch of salt you're telling them to be skeptical and not take it as 100% truth. That's what that means.

It makes ZERO sense to say "Yeah, he told me to be skeptical about the information he received, but I ignored all of that and just pretended that it was fact, and now that I don't see what I thought I would see it's his fault I took it as facts, even though he told me not to".

This is all a comprehension problem.

 

[amd6502]

I'm still trying to understand the mindset of ppl previously and still taking adored utub seriously. I really don't believe it's amd fanboys. it's possible it's a subset of gamers. if this is correct i think they would be better off sticking to nintendo.

 

[moinmoin]

Can somebody start a AdoredTV thread and move all discussion to there, please?

 

[ub4ty]

I'm still trying to understand the mindset of ppl previously and still taking adored utub seriously. I really don't believe it's amd fanboys. it's possible it's a subset of gamers. if this is correct i think they would be better off sticking to nintendo.

People and their idols...
Take a look around at modern society.
Celebrity worship was a thing and then it went broad based with e-celeb.
People live vicariously through others, hold opinions through others, feel empowered through others, and hold a jumble of other illogical conclusions through others.

From watching people play video games instead of playing them themselves and getting gud... The twitch phenomenon , the e-celeb worship, the musketeers...

All the while missing that it's all for money... When products are released, there is actual substance to post. When there are no products, people who make a living posting endless streams of youtube videos must continue to create content and drive views. This is the motivation for the rumor mills and nonsense. Rabid fans don't realize this or want to admit to it because it breaks the fantasy/projection they cast on these people and their channels. Suspension of reality rules and as a result, I avoid these kind of discussions like the plague. There's zero value or substance in the source material to begin with. So, what's the point of discussing it. You'll never win in these scenarios and even when you do you're still losing.

 

[rbk123]

Can somebody start a AdoredTV thread and move all discussion to there, please?

What?!??? And miss Ozzy/Panino doing exactly what they're trying to blame the Adored guy for?

Gold, Jerry. Gold.

 

[Panino Manino]

@Schmide @mattiasnyc
Not "people like me", I wasn't on the hype train (I wasn't discussing here but in other places). When he first came out with those spreadsheets I felt like something was wrong and he was going too far being to specific (about some obvious fakes).

You two are talking about comprehension, but try to comprehend what I'm saying here.
Yes, calling he a leaker is semantically wrong, but for most of his public this is just a minor detail. He wasn't the one leaking information, but the information was leaking to them from him (the only thing they cared about him no matter what else he may had to say about the industry). I'm talking about how he was being perceived and gave my thoughts about how he handle that perceptiveness. Instead of being more careful (no amount of salt is enough) he rode with his own hype believing his dreams would come true and they were shattered, ending as one of the disappointed.
I'm not defending him!
My opinion and your opinion and others opinions about him can be different, I'm just talking about how he gave reasons for this "myth" that was being constructed around him.

 

[Schmide]

Can somebody start a AdoredTV thread and move all discussion to there, please?

There is no reason for any one source to be removed from this thread. If any one source is removed for not being exactly accurate, just delete the thread. For we can all be off at one point or another, that's human.

What should be removed is the strawman arguments that AdoredTV is anything else but a speculative source like every one of us.

 

[Schmide]

@Schmide @mattiasnyc
Not "people like me", I wasn't on the hype train (I wasn't discussing here but in other places). When he first came out with those spreadsheets I felt like something was wrong and he was going too far being to specific (about some obvious fakes).

Fine you wern't on this hype train. That doesn't excuse you pushing conspiracy theories to get your point across or grind whatever axe you have.

You two are talking about comprehension, but try to comprehend what I'm saying here.
Yes, calling he a leaker is semantically wrong, but for most of his public this is just a minor detail.

So if you're wrong on one thing, apply the same litmus test you apply to AdoredTV.

Remember one minor detail you must be shunned and removed from the group. See ya.

He wasn't the one leaking information, but the information was leaking to them from him (the only thing they cared about him no matter what else he may had to say about the industry). I'm talking about how he was being perceived and gave my thoughts about how he handle that perceptiveness. Instead of being more careful (no amount of salt is enough) he rode with his own hype believing his dreams would come true and they were shattered, ending as one of the disappointed.
I'm not defending him!
My opinion and your opinion and others opinions about him can be different, I'm just talking about how he gave reasons for this "myth" that was being constructed around him.

Who cares what hype a group of people gleams off anyone? That's on them not AdoredTV!

This really just screams of jelly. I like the guy and I don't put as much ego into it.

Still waiting for the source of your quotes. Either source them or retract them, for Libel reasons.

 

[moinmoin]

There is no reason for any one source to be removed from this thread. If any one source is removed for not being exactly accurate, just delete the thread. For we can all be off at one point or another, that's human.

What should be removed is the strawman arguments that AdoredTV is anything else but a speculative source like every one of us.

Look, what I'm interested in reading and discussing is the speculation about tech details, what about it is realistic and feasible, and what are the possibilities going from there. What I'm not interested in discussing (or reading for that matter) is who is saying what, why he is trustworthy or not, whether it constitutes hyping or lying etc. pp. The latter adds nothing, zilch, nada, to the former but manages to detract and completely derail it.

 

[Shivansps]

Zeppelin had a large uncore with lots of server functionality and IF that was not used in AM4 products. A look at the (Raven) RR die shows just how much that uncore can be reduced. Zepp dies were meant to communicate with another (up to 4 Zepps wired together); this seems to have been left intact in PR which is what enabled the huge core count in 2nd gen threatripper.

Even so, it would be a tight and possibly impossible fit for a 3CU igpu on the AM4 controller die. I'm x ing my thumbs and am hopeful they pulled this off though.

As far as 2nd chiplet, it seems the chiplets may be able to communicate with another in binary pairs (for cache sharing and coherency) similar to how CCX's on a Zepp die relate to another. So no complex logic and L4 may be needed on the AM4 controller in order for it to use two chiplets. See how the pairs are arranged in 7nm Epyc:

The big advantage here is that they can use less than prime chiplets in AM4 packaged double chiplet products, namely 12c 6+6 and 8c 4+4. This means they likely have some way of somewhat successfully identifying and matching imperfect chiplets.

Still, I would expect most 7nm Ryzen to be single chiplet products. 1x 6c, followed by single chiplet 8c. Thirdly followed by dual chiplet 12c.

Possibly some models with SMT disabled and halved L3.

Probably complemented with 12nm Pinnacles refreshed and rebinned.

And almost certainly complemented with the 11CU quadcore APUs based on the confirmed mobile APU.

Definitely the strongest and best product line ever.

What do you think may be on the i/o if there is no IGP or L4?

 

[amd6502]

What do you think may be on the i/o if there is no IGP or L4?

Well, like you said, the same amount of uncore as RR plus maybe a tiny extra for modernization like pcie 4, plus more lanes of pcie than RR since PR and SR have more.

If that leaves space then that includes the graphics related portions of RR minus most of the 11CU's.

Maybe stare at this some more. For size comparison, I think the CCX is like 40 some mm2.

yeah its tecnically a NB and IGPs started existing because they wanted to use the empty space on the NB because its a lot of I/O and no so much of anything else.

It is really a good question, 2400G die size is 209.73mm and the I/O die is 122.63 mm, the I/O die is only 87mm smaller than this...

Take away the CCX and the support stuff for it and you are there. Altrought, it probably has L4 inside.

My opinion is this: to not include about 35mm2 of area of graphics in the ~120mm2 controller would be a mistake. Fallback graphics are very useful for consumers, it'd be yet another feature upgrade in the 3000 series, and OEMs would find it irresistible.

 

[Shivansps]

Well, like you said, the same amount of uncore as RR plus maybe a tiny extra for modernization like pcie 4, plus more lanes of pcie than RR since PR and SR have more.

If that leaves space then that includes the graphics related portions of RR minus most of the 11CU's.

Maybe stare at this some more. For size comparison, I think the CCX is like 40 some mm2.



My opinion is this: to not include about 35mm2 of area of graphics in the ~120mm2 controller would be a mistake. Fallback graphics are very useful for consumers, it'd be yet another feature upgrade in the 3000 series, and OEMs would find it irresistible.

Yeah i agree but i also thinking they may have added DDR5 support, if DDR5 is early as 2020 as some people said it may be.

I really hoping for a IGP of at least Vega 8, but that is just wishfull thinking on my part.