Speculation: Ryzen 3000 series

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LightningZ71

Golden Member
Mar 10, 2017
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For mobile APUs, is it possible that AMD introduces a new package form factor and PGA layout in the next year? The reason for this would be to allow for the APU to move to a MCM with a 12nm I/O and iGPU chip packaged with a power optimized 7nm 8 core chiplet. I envision the I/O die being specced as follows:
PCIe 4 (with a preplanned revision to PCIe 5)
LPDDR4 Dual channel (with a planned revision for DDR5)
the usual integrated SATA/NVME, USB, and networking technologies
the equivalent of 12CU of Navi in the iGPU

The updated PGA is to support the updated PCI and DDR5 specs, as well as a new shape for the package that allows for the separate I/O and CPU chiplets.

This would give AMD the ability to offer 8 core mobile CPUs without having to move the entire package to 7nm. It would continue to keep the WSA happy with GF. It would allow better power management as the CPU core power can be better managed separately from the I/O.

The other possibility is that AMD could offer a mobile product that is based on an MCM that uses two different 7nm processes. There could be a 7nm I/O die that is constructed on a more power optimized 7nm process by TSMC or another foundary, and also use a pair of 4 core smaller CPU chiplets for the CPUs using the performance optimized 7nm node available at the time. This would allow more significant power gating as AMD could power down one entire CPU chiplet when it isn't needed.
 

beginner99

Diamond Member
Jun 2, 2009
5,223
1,598
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Isn't this an assumption based on Zen 2 having the same IF bandwidth as Zen1? If it's upgraded, the new IF links might be larger than expected. It would make sense to me for AMD to go wider than faster to increase capacity if you're concerned by power usage.

True or maybe the memory controller was also improved and is now larger than before.
 

Kedas

Senior member
Dec 6, 2018
355
339
136
in Epyc they are faster (about 2x) according to the presentation if I remember correctly.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
5,436
1,655
136
Maybe the cold weather is affecting me, but I still don't understand why they'd have a second heatspreader, PCB, or I/O chip. I would've assumed they'd use a dummy die for single chipet products and designed the PCB in such a way that it could be used with either 1 or 2 chiplets.


Sorry I'll try to give more back ground in my thought process.

AMD are likely to have this combination of CPU's no matter the name in price.

4c8t Ryzen (maybe)
6c12t Ryzen
8c16t Ryzen
12c24t Ryzen
16c32t Ryzen

16c32t TR (no 12c version)
24c48t TR
32c64t TR
48c96t TR (Maybe)
64c128t TR (maybe but probably more unlikely)

Then EPYC with the TR configuration with no maybes

So volume works like this.

The 4c8t Matisse will be a ok seller if it exists. But for the most part I would expect it won't sell as well as the rest as interest in a 4c Ryzen will be split with the APU's.

The 6c12t Ryzen is going to be by far the best seller. It will be a single chiplet chip (they aren't going to do the whole unbalanced CCX). Maybe there are variations that will be a bit more expensive. But in the end we at worst are looking at a sub $200 6c chip that AMD will sell the most of.

8c16t Ryzen will be an interesting one AMD could sell a 2 Chiplet version or a single Chiplet version. Or Both and the one that performs better gets the premium cost. Personally I think the 4c chips will have better value in TR and EPYC where the volume of chips on a CPU make up for how cut down they are. Not doing a 2 Chiplet 8c Ryzen, reduces the number of good 8c and 6c chips they have to fuse off cores and down sell. This should be the config that comes closest to taking on the 6c12t chip. I think it has a decent chance possibly upsetting the 6c12t chip as the best selling configuration of Matisse.

This is where it is going to get dicey. The 4c and 6c chips are almost certainly 1 Chiplet version. All of the three above have at least 2 if not more configurations for performance and power. Specially the single chip ones. They could have 35-45w versions, 65w versions and +90w versions. So there will be ample opportunity to take up many price points. A 12c Ryzen and a 16c Ryzen have two options. 1 is AMD realizing how far ahead of Intel they are, price the 12c to compete against Coffelake-R and CometLake and leave the 16c8t Ryzen significantly more expensive for margin and halo purposes. 2. Is price the 12c and 16c CPU's and in fact compress the whole lineup price wise to make the question not "Should I get a CFL-R/CometLake or a Ryzen 3k" it will make it "Which Ryzen 3k am I going to get".

So I will go over the affect of both theories. Starting with the keeping up with Intel cost. AMD has never been one to shy away from super high priced CPU's. But when they did it with the FX versions of the A64 and A64x2. These were all the same chips. If the FX's didn't sell, they just didn't alot as much dies to it. All the margin was free margin with little to no other constraints. They also didn't have a product range like TR act as that bridge to super expensive consumer CPU's. When AMD priced their FX's to 1k, those were HEDT CPU's before we had a name for it. So now to go into the impact of doing an expensive 16c32t Ryzen (this applies as well to the 12c but a little less straight forward). Lets call the 16c32t CPU a $700 CPU ($50 less than a 2950). This won't sell very well. Game wise it will be slower than a single chiplet 8c CPU. It's over twice as expensive as the general consumer socket CPU. Nearly 50% more than either AMD's or Intel's highest cost consumer chip in recent history. There are no if ans or buts about them if they space out the price on the CPU's and keep 6c and 8c chips roughly the same price as now a $500 12 and $700 16 core chips won't sell really well. In some worlds that is okay. But its how they affect the sales of the 6c and 8c chips that I am worried about. Maintaining current costs If Ryzen 3k sells well the 6c and 8c CPU's will take the brunt of the sales. Meaning a significant amount of of those 6c chips will be cut down 8c Chiplets. Even now those chips sell for ~$200.

So now that we have established the affect on how the wide and at the top end expensive range of pricing lets look at the Ryzen 1k pricing window. Keeping the 6c at ~$200, the 8c ~$300, the 12c ~$400, 16c ~500. As the prices lowers on the top end the sales exponentially grows. A $500 16c CPU won't set the world on fire but it will sell huge amount more than a $700 one. The more of them that AMD sells they might actually be getting a higher ROC (return on cost). So a $500 is under the double price of a 8C Ryzen at $300. But if AMD sells 2x 8c Ryzen, they are building 2 full chips. 2 More IO Dies. 2 More heatspreaders. 2 More sets of pins. 2 more PCB boards with the needed work on the substrate. In the end they might be making more profit on one $500 16c CPU then 2 8c Ryzen's do to the increased manufacturing costs of two CPU's versus 1 with just an additional chiplet. Now we start getting into my original point. Down binned 8c chiplets fused into 6c CPUs. It is in AMD's best interest to sell as many 8c chiplets as 8c Chiplets as possible. AMD can't just limit 6c chips to 6c capable chiplets. Its going to be a massive seller. Might not be many at a launch and their will probably be a lot more legitimate 6c chiplets in these CPU's then there were for the 6c cpu's in Ryzen 1k and 2k. But I still see a significant amount of them being 8c chiplets down binned and fused. So anything that AMD does price wise to get people to purchase 8c Ryzen 3k and higher, the better. For every 16c they don't sell that AMD has to take stock that would go to that chip and bin it for a 6c Ryzen, the more lost money.

Sure at $700 a chip they could be getting $350 a Chiplet. But for every one of those they don't sell and the wider the array of prices in works it's way down the line and those chiplets just became 2 $200 CPU's with twice the manufacturing cost. Where if they lower prices, squeeze the prices together. The more initialized people are to buying a 8c Ryzen, 12c Ryzen and 16c Ryzen. Increasing sales on items with more profit with reduced manufacturing costs. This doesn't even touch on the economics of increased profits even if it means lower margin on increasing volume of sales through price reductions (or in this case lower initial pricing). Considering where AMD still is in the market. Their eye should be as much on volume as it is on Margin and Profits.
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
4,994
7,765
136
For mobile APUs, is it possible that AMD introduces a new package form factor and PGA layout in the next year? The reason for this would be to allow for the APU to move to a MCM with a 12nm I/O and iGPU chip packaged with a power optimized 7nm 8 core chiplet. I envision the I/O die being specced as follows:
PCIe 4 (with a preplanned revision to PCIe 5)
LPDDR4 Dual channel (with a planned revision for DDR5)
the usual integrated SATA/NVME, USB, and networking technologies
the equivalent of 12CU of Navi in the iGPU

The updated PGA is to support the updated PCI and DDR5 specs, as well as a new shape for the package that allows for the separate I/O and CPU chiplets.

This would give AMD the ability to offer 8 core mobile CPUs without having to move the entire package to 7nm. It would continue to keep the WSA happy with GF. It would allow better power management as the CPU core power can be better managed separately from the I/O.

The other possibility is that AMD could offer a mobile product that is based on an MCM that uses two different 7nm processes. There could be a 7nm I/O die that is constructed on a more power optimized 7nm process by TSMC or another foundary, and also use a pair of 4 core smaller CPU chiplets for the CPUs using the performance optimized 7nm node available at the time. This would allow more significant power gating as AMD could power down one entire CPU chiplet when it isn't needed.
For mobile usage AMD also offers Vega Mobile which is still quite new (officially launched two months ago?). I expect them to refresh that on 7nm sometime down the road, so they technically only need an IOC optimized for mobile usage to cover the base between monolithic APU and desktop MCM.
 

Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
982
973
136
16c32t TR
24c48t TR
32c64t TR
48c96t TR (Maybe)
64c128t TR (maybe but probably more unlikely)

What if they need to add pairs od chiplets for some reason? And what if 16 cores is going to be considered a mainstream standard? I think that the AMD HEDT platform in 2019 will start with 32 cores.

Not overlapping mainstream and HEDT platforms will push more people on the fence to go HEDT in my opinion.

32, 48 and 64 is my bet.
 

PotatoWithEarsOnSide

Senior member
Feb 23, 2017
664
701
106
I don't think that going 16c to 32c is a good idea.
Even if TR isn't 16c minimum, it still has to fill that gap somewhat. I'd go with a 24c TR.
That being said, I think that a 16c TR with 4 mem channels, more IO options, would still be in high demand.
 

Topweasel

Diamond Member
Oct 19, 2000
5,436
1,655
136
What if they need to add pairs od chiplets for some reason? And what if 16 cores is going to be considered a mainstream standard? I think that the AMD HEDT platform in 2019 will start with 32 cores.

Not overlapping mainstream and HEDT platforms will push more people on the fence to go HEDT in my opinion.

32, 48 and 64 is my bet.

With the IO chip AMD no longer has to make sure they have a certain amount of chips so EPYC will have two production lines. 1 With 4 Chiplets and 1 with 8 Chiplets. Allowing EPYC to span 16-64c. That means they can offer the same configurations in Threadripper. Personally I think 16-32c 4 chip Threadrippers are a given. The question becomes much like Intels LCC/HCC/XCC dies if AMD is going to use the 8 chiplet line for Threadripper as well.
 

Kedas

Senior member
Dec 6, 2018
355
339
136
They do offer the 32 core for threadripper now so eventually they will also do the 64 core for threadripper, assuming there is enough software that can actually use 128 threads.
The production line changes for threadripper are minimal compared to before, there is no assembly change, same I/O die for all core count versions with all connections I assume.
 

Panino Manino

Senior member
Jan 28, 2017
846
1,061
136
From Ars:
There are also reports that AMD is already working on Zen-derivative x86 processors for the next PlayStation. Such an architecture would be easily compatible with the PS4's own x86 chip and make backward compatibility relatively easy to pull off.

What could or would need to be tweaked in this case?
Re-Add instructions that were dropped from Jaguar?
 
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NostaSeronx

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2011
3,688
1,222
136
What could or would need to be tweaked in this case?
Games that aren't programmed for Zen, might need a compatibility mode in which to slow down Zen. This is only needed when Zen is proven to destabilize the game.
Re-Add instructions that were dropped from Jaguar?
Games will most likely be optimized for Jaguar-first, and Zen-last with Instruction Set Extensions.

Other than that, this is also a possibility;
The Playstation with Zen can play PS4 games. However, the Playstation with Jaguar can't play next-PS games.

I think that Sony will try to aim for forward compatibility and backwards compatibility to maximize revenue. Sony makes money from games+PSN, not the consoles.

Jaguar didn't drop instructions and Zen fully supports Jaguar instructions.
 
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Shivansps

Diamond Member
Sep 11, 2013
3,873
1,527
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More than the CPU the mayor issue could be the GPU with such low level API. But considering they did OK from PS4 to PS4 Pro i dont think it is a big issue either.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
16,843
13,771
146
I don't think that going 16c to 32c is a good idea.
Even if TR isn't 16c minimum, it still has to fill that gap somewhat. I'd go with a 24c TR.
That being said, I think that a 16c TR with 4 mem channels, more IO options, would still be in high demand.

I’m currently rocking a 1900X first gen Threadripper which is only 8/16. I’m sure if Ryzen 3000 peaks at 16/32 Threadripper with Zen2 will start at 16/32.

The benefit of the lower core count is faster core clocks at the same TDP as higher core count Threadrippers.

Couple the higher boost clocks with the massive numbers of PCIE lanes, 3X full speed M.2 slots and 4x memory channels means even my 1900X original Zen TR beats the newer 2700X on many benchmarks.
 

raghu78

Diamond Member
Aug 23, 2012
4,093
1,475
136
Ok, the gap between 16 and 32 is too wide.
My final guess is this one:

Ryz 16c - 499 USD
TR 24c - 799 USD
TR 32c - 1199 USD
TR 48c - 1799 USD
TR 64c - 2499 USD

AMD is in a strong position with Zen 2 and they should fully reap the monetary rewards for their innovation.

Ryzen 16c - 499 - 599 USD
TR 24c - 999 USD
TR 32c - 1499 USD
TR 48c - 2299 USD
TR 64c - 2999 USD

By pricing the TR 64C directly against the Xeon W-3175 x AMD will provide > 2x perf/$ for multi threaded applications. It would still be an unbeatable product at an outstanding perf/$. It would also allow AMD to make more profits which is crucial to their long term financial health and sustainability.
 
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amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
360
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AMD is in a strong position with Zen 2 and they should fully reap the monetary rewards for their innovation.

Ryzen 16c - 499 - 599 USD
TR 24c - 999 USD
TR 32c - 1499 USD
TR 48c - 2299 USD
TR 64c - 2999 USD

By pricing the TR 64C directly against the Xeon W-3175 x AMD will provide > 2x perf/$ for multi threaded applications. It would still be an unbeatable product at an outstanding perf/$. It would also allow AMD to make more profits which is crucial to their long term financial health and sustainability.

It looks like there's a good chance of 12c on AM4. 16c we likely need to wait till almost xmas holidays to find out. If it doesn't arrive by xmas it probably never will. If it does arrive we can be confident there will also be a 16c Threatripper, which will not have the bandwidth and wattage limitations of its little sibling.

There could be two 16 Threatrippers, one 2x8 and the other 4x4 low binning version. 24c TR would be the most popular, and I doubt 32c will exist at all; you have 2nd gen TR to fulfill the high core count TR niche.
 

JasonLD

Senior member
Aug 22, 2017
486
447
136
I don't expect TR will go beyond 32c until their next platform moves up to 6 channels.
 

exquisitechar

Senior member
Apr 18, 2017
666
904
136
It looks like there's a good chance of 12c on AM4. 16c we likely need to wait till almost xmas holidays to find out. If it doesn't arrive by xmas it probably never will. If it does arrive we can be confident there will also be a 16c Threatripper, which will not have the bandwidth and wattage limitations of its little sibling.

There could be two 16 Threatrippers, one 2x8 and the other 4x4 low binning version. 24c TR would be the most popular, and I doubt 32c will exist at all; you have 2nd gen TR to fulfill the high core count TR niche.
0% chance of there being no 32c TR, IMO. Why would AMD deliberately make a regression in core count? 3rd gen >16c TR would be so much better than the messy 2nd gen in every way. Niche or not, they can offer the best high core count CPU (in most workloads) and they'd be stupid not to.
 

IRobot23

Senior member
Jul 3, 2017
601
183
76
Hopefully :
4C/8T below 140$
6C/12T below 260$
8C/16T below 420$

~ Clocks for TDP to around ~4GHz (8C/16T)
~ OC clock all core ~4.9GHz

IPC 10% above intel
Lower DRAM latencies
IF2 has its own clock - OC above 3GHz
IMC = same efficiency + support for 4500MHz DDR4.

If 4C/8T will OC well and have low dram latencies then it will be like i7 7700K on steroids. i7 7700K is plenty for budget gamers specially OC-ed and delided (soldered on AMD).
i7 8700K is just mainstream and pure gaming CPU ... it amd can do faster at way lower price... then why not.
i9 9900K is just for those who don't know where to put their money... if AMD can recplace that with better and lower price... why not.
 
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amd6502

Senior member
Apr 21, 2017
971
360
136
0% chance of there being no 32c TR, IMO. Why would AMD deliberately make a regression in core count?

I think because the pricing would fall out of the TR bracket and fit better into the Epyc range. TR (which is a brand for high end consumer and enterprise) is supposed to still fit high end consumer budget. But good argument; I revise perceived odds to 50/50.
 

Kocicak

Senior member
Jan 17, 2019
982
973
136
AMD ... should fully reap the monetary rewards for their innovation.
... By pricing the TR 64C directly against the Xeon W-3175X...
It comes back again and again, it is really getting tiring.

YET AGAIN: If "fully reaping monetary reward" means profit maximisation, profit maximisation IS ONLY ONE OF possible bussiness strategies. The other most important is growth strategy. Growth strategy means, that the business tries to sell as many products as possible to increase the marker share.

IT IS OBVIOUS that after long years of starvation on incompetitive products shrunken AMD WANTS TO GROW AGAIN.

Growth strategy means low prices.

Pricing of the upcoming products from AMD will be very agressive. AMD simply WANTS BACK.

Comparing anything to W-3175X does not make any sense, because that is a meaningless product. It will be produced in such a low number, that it in comparison with normal mainstream product (which is produced it hundred or thousand times higher quantities) simply does not exist.

Just a remark: consumers arguing for higher prices, that is quite a remarkable thing. It raises eyebrows.

EDIT:

In this interview Lisa Su says: "It is about getting market share" and further comments about gaining share. If somebody does not get it from what I wrote (I actually did not state anything unusual - it is all pretty easy and obvious), you can hear it directly from the mouth of the CEO.

 
Last edited:
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Mopetar

Diamond Member
Jan 31, 2011
8,005
6,449
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Isn't Ryzen ~10% behind Intel right now in IPC? A 20% uplift would be a pretty massive jump and I doubt AMD will accomplish it for Ryzen 2.

Not that I don't want that to happen along with the rest of your wish list but I don't see Zen 2 being THAT good.

I don't really expect it to amount to much overall, but I do think Intel will take some kind of performance hit to work in their specter and meltdown fixes. Sure it doesn't matter for all workloads, but AMD didn't seem to be as affected by those problems, so it's not necessarily just a matter of AMD moving forward, but of Intel perhaps sliding backwards.

20% seems to be too much, but I think the speculation based on some of the results we've seen is that AMD did hit double digit improvements in at least some areas. Infinity Fabric improvements would potentially go a long way in some tasks as well if that was a previous bottleneck.

I don't think it's overly optimistic to think that they hit performance parity with Intel, at least in a few areas. Maybe they've even managed to get more out of their SMT which was surprisingly better than what Intel had.
 
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