Speculation: Ryzen 4000 series/Zen 3

[Hitman928]

You just don't get it. AMD is becoming too much like Intel. They need to stop! AMD needs to behave like they have fierce competition even when they don't.

How quickly is Intel iterating on their architectures, how about ARM Neoverse?

 

[teejee]

They did that with K8 Opteron and nearly got wiped out. They couldn't do to Intel what Intel eventually did to them.



I'd love to know more about IceLake-SP. Still waiting.



Not exactly. Intel just needs a 10nm server product that can replace Cascade Lake-SP. That's it. They can bring along an enormous number of customers without even having to win any benchmarks. Assuming they can keep their customers distracted long enough for them to not notice that AMD has updated their server platform AND server CPUs three times prior to Sapphire Rapids' release. It's really not clear how many times AMD has to improve their products while Intel does essentially nothing to finally make loyal vendors say, "you know what? Forget your incentives Intel, we'd rather not be an Intel exclusive shop anymore".

IceLake-SP appears to be not capable of fulfilling that role due to yields. I guess the hope is that 10SFE and



Okay, fair point, but I'm pretty sure Intel's 800k number is also across all their process nodes (or at least 14nm + 10nm).



. . . sort of? The first Zen products out of the gate were Summit Ridge. Had Summit Ridge failed and EPYC failed behind it, that would have been it, kaput, finito. I doubt the second-wave Summit Ridge chips would have made it to market in significant quantity, nor would we have seen much of Raven Ridge either, much less Threadripper. They really only had two rollout phases to make or break their future. Fortunately things worked out for them.



Really? Why? Imagine this timeline:

Matisse: May 2019
Vermeer: August 2020
Raphael: Sept/Oct 2021

That, friends, would be beautiful, and good for everyone except maybe OEMs that got caught with their pants down by buying up too much stock of previous-gen CPUs (but really, I think they could manage). Imagine how embarassed Intel would have been had AMD managed to get Vermeer out before they could officially launch their awesome 4c 10SF mobile CPUs. And I'm not talking about some buggy not-as-performant Vermeer compared to the one we're seeing in a few days. I mean the same chip. Do you really think AMD wouldn't have had the silicon ready by then? The only thing I would worry about would be firmware, which admittedly was still a problem for Matisse, even though AMD held it until July 2019. ah heck that.



I agree! We won't see package dates from January 2020 or anything silly like that. But May 2020? I could maybe see that. Pretty sure date-of-manufacture is going to be for the final packaging date rather than diffusion.



Yeah, I gave up on you when you started accusing me of throwing toys, or something stupid like that.



You just don't get it. AMD is becoming too much like Intel. They need to stop! AMD needs to behave like they have fierce competition even when they don't.

AMD needs to deliver with precision and quality now, they are becoming big among OEM (thanks to Renoir). Rushing with releases is a huge risk that they shouldn’t take. Delayed deliveries to OEM causes huge issues for them.

If they deliver faster, then there are obviously less things they can do for each release, that will affect either quality or features.

This is something that Lisa really understands, she often talks about the importance of the roadmap.

 

[soresu]

You just don't get it. AMD is becoming too much like Intel. They need to stop! AMD needs to behave like they have fierce competition even when they don't.

It's a bit early to say that.

Intel may not be running on all cylinders compared to a decade ago but they certainly are not standing completely still, and AMD still need to fight to get market share in areas currently dominated by them - Renoir is just the first real opening salvo towards biting into NUC and assorted laptop segments, they are not even close to a significant piece of the pie there as yet.

Until AMD have a dramatic cut of market share in all segments they compete with Intel for I don't expect to see them purposefully holding back on new products for any reason other than maximizing ROI from their current product R&D, which is extremely important for a company like AMD that doesn't have a humongous war chest to fall back on.

 

[moinmoin]

In my opinion what AMD needs to focus on now is being able to deliver the quantity now that its products' quality is more widely accepted and in demand.

3900X was a hit but barely available. 5900X needs to do better, we will soon see how that goes. Renoir is a hit but after the initial hype quantity was and is not sufficient to fulfill all the demand by OEMs (to the point that OEMs are removing some Renoir based products again). AMD needs to be less conservative with ordering capacity at TSMC ahead of time so it can react faster to unplanned changes in demand for its products.

I originally expected that to improve as production on chips for next gen consoles ramps down, with AMD hopefully keeping the freeing capacity and using it for its own products. Unfortunately reports are that the next gen consoles themselves may well be facing demand outpacing supply until next summer, so AMD may be in quite a quandary wrt manufacturing capacity at TSMC for some more time.

 

[Kenmitch]

I originally expected that to improve as production on chips for next gen consoles ramps down, with AMD hopefully keeping the freeing capacity and using it for its own products. Unfortunately reports are that the next gen consoles themselves may well be facing demand outpacing supply until next summer, so AMD may be in quite a quandary wrt manufacturing capacity at TSMC for some more time.

I'm sure AMD want's Sony's and Microsoft's money, but I doubt they'll throw additional orders in front of their own products. I would imagine AMD has a fab schedule already in place and intends to hold to it. What that is exactly is ??? I would have to assume that AMD has what they consider a reasonable amount set aside for their own offerings. Supply vs demand wise we'll have to wait and see.

 

[Kenmitch]

You just don't get it. AMD is becoming too much like Intel. They need to stop! AMD needs to behave like they have fierce competition even when they don't.

Good things come to those who wait. I doubt their sandbagging future offerings to milk the industry for every drip of milk.

And besides they don't even have a jingle.

 

[coercitiv]

And besides they don't even have a jingle.

You mean the jingle that proves silent data corruption is real?

 

[Mopetar]

They might shift that date up if they want to beat NVidia who are releasing the 3070 on the 29th. If the Navi2 cards are any good they'll be at least better or matching a 3070 for cheaper. IDK why AMD would shoot themselves in the foot by not launching earlier.

Why should they care about beating NVidia if it means a compromised or rushed launch with lower stock and more potential for problems.

NVidia is moving back their launch to address some of those same issues and AMD stands to gain a lot more good will and mindshare if they have a solid launch.

They already know what to expect from Ampere now that it's been released. If they beat it, they'll still beat it if they launch a month later. They can even put out enough benchmarks to get people to hold off a purchase for a few more weeks.

If they could launch sooner they would, but people forget they've got a new lineup of GPUs for the first time in a long time, two new consoles using their hardware, and a new CPU line that might even take the gaming crown from Intel.

It's impressive that AMD can even manage something like this at all given where the company was not even a decade ago. But at the end of the day there're only so many wafers to go around.

People will wait an extra few weeks if it's a good product and the launch experience is better because drivers weren't rushed out, motherboard manufacturers have good supply in stock, etc. You know, all those little things that have been a minor blemish on past AMD launches.

 

[Markfw]

How about not talking about video cards in the CPU forum.

 

[trexfromouterspace]

How about not talking about video cards in the CPU forum.

DONT TELL ME WHAT TO DO MOM

 

[Thunder 57]

Really? Why? Imagine this timeline:

Matisse: May 2019
Vermeer: August 2020
Raphael: Sept/Oct 2021

Imagine this timeline:

1961: R7 rocket capable of launching one person into orbit
1963: Saturn V capable of sending three to the moon. Not some crappy, buggy Saturn V, but the real deal.
1965: Nuclear rocket capable of sending seven to Mars
1970: Space elevator created making space incredibly more accessible and affordable

Intel's tick-tock never had a 12 month cadence. Probably 15 at best. That just seems to be the time it takes to make these kind of changes.

 

[AmericanLocomotive]

They did that with K8 Opteron and nearly got wiped out. They couldn't do to Intel what Intel eventually did to them.

Not really. K8 Opteron was an absolutely massive success from AMD and basically pushed them from 0% to 25% of server and datacenter market share in a little over 2 years. The problem was they had no real follow up to K8 after 3 years. Just minor core revisions and tweaks. Then when they finally did have their "next gen" part, it suffered from the fatal TLB bug and low clocks. By the time they got the TLB bug problem fixed and CPU released properly, it was basically wasn't competitive and a year behind Intel.

Zen on the other hand is already on its 3rd major revision/overhaul in just over 3 years. AMD is iterating fast, and is not sitting on their laurels.

You just don't get it. AMD is becoming too much like Intel. They need to stop! AMD needs to behave like they have fierce competition even when they don't.

The only way AMD is "becoming like Intel" right now, that they're working on delivering more polished platforms and processors. The original Zen launch was extremely rocky with tons of issues and problems (including some defective CPUs that couldn't run Linux). Zen+ was a bit better, and the Zen2 launch went mostly okay, but had a lot of BIOS issues with boost clocks. As AMD starts to gain serious marketshare again, OEMs and customers are going to become increasingly less tolerant of quirkiness. They want a polished product that works well and correctly right out of the box. That polish takes time.

Remember, it's not just a single CPU AMD is building here. They're building a whole ecosystem of products. They're building a family of CPUs, they're building new chipsets, they're building technical specs and documentation, they're building software, they're working with board partners, system integrator, OEMs and software developers. They're testing, testing, testing. They're scheduling production time, working out supply chain problems, sourcing materials, building inventory for launch. There is an absolute monumental amount of work that goes into producing a new generation of CPU.

You see and hear about ARM startups like Nuvia and others who are apparently developing their chips at a fever pace. Well development like that is easy when your only goal is to develop a single product without worrying about the entire ecosystem surrounding that product.

 

[A///]

Yeah, I gave up on you when you started accusing me of throwing toys, or something stupid like that.

I wasn't referring to you. I was referring to Sir Richard of the Four Realms.

You just don't get it. AMD is becoming too much like Intel. They need to stop! AMD needs to behave like they have fierce competition even when they don't.

What? You were suggesting AMD release a processor every 12 months and not way upwards of 18 months. And that they should include refreshes. All for the same ASP. How is that not like Intel?

 

[A///]

Why should they care about beating NVidia if it means a compromised or rushed launch with lower stock and more potential for problems.

Even when given abundant time AMD has managed to botch their video card launches. It was the same back before they bought ATI. RTG has always been the red headed stepchild.

 

[A///]

I dunno, look at Zen 2's 'official' pricing. Brand for Brand it's not that much cheaper than Intel despite being slower in games. You'd have to think that the 3070/2080 Ti competitor would have more than 8 GB but I wouldn't expect it to be much less than $499.

Same deal with Zen 3. If they end up doing the 8 core and 12 core first I would expect the MSRP to be decently more than $399 and $499, maybe $449 and $549. The street price will of course vary.

When did I state it should be less than $500? No one really knows the performance of these cards. You have people like "My Little Itchy Dipstick" making up complete random crap as fact and the rest of the idiot gang going with it. If the high end card is highly competitive, it might only be $50 cheaper. Or the same price. I posted this for a reason. For all we know AMD may have a card the performs the same as the 3090 or better. As I said, rumors mean nothing in the end. Because they're only rumors. If AMD can deliver a card like that for $1,000-1,200 undercutting NVidia by $300 to $500, then that's great.

The reality is no one should expect killer mid range cards at $300 anymore. And no high end for $450-600 anymore. Unless there is a technical breakthrough that slashes node prices into a fraction they are right now, we won't see those cheap prices anymore.

I'd expect healthier increases in MSRP on Zen 3 than Zen 2. That 5900X may be around $650 and the 5950X to be around $800-900.

 

[A///]

They want a polished product that works well and correctly right out of the box. That polish takes time.

Correct. AMD has a tenth of the number of employees Intel has, 11K to 110K. Imagine how many software engineers Intel has. It likely far outnumbers the total number of AMD employees globally.

AMD is the new hot product in town. It's getting better each year. Then AMD can control AIB partners and force their hand to deliver higher quality products. Including OEMs. Right now Intel is like that hot chick who was also smart and going places that you knew and went to school with. You look her up on Facebook, Friendster or Instagram a long time after you finished up school and come find she's gained considerable weight, smokes and drinks, and has 5 kids and on her 2nd husband.

 

[Kuiva maa]

Correct. AMD has a tenth of the number of employees Intel has, 11K to 110K. Imagine how many software engineers Intel has. It likely far outnumbers the total number of AMD employees globally.

I would like to see a direct comparison between AMD and intel employee count that is strictly CPU design related. AMD has radeon while intel has foundry, memory,GPU etc personnel too.

 

[moinmoin]

I'm sure AMD want's Sony's and Microsoft's money, but I doubt they'll throw additional orders in front of their own products. I would imagine AMD has a fab schedule already in place and intends to hold to it.

Sure, AMD is not going to change already planned capacity. What we were talking about was AMD being too conservative with its planning, facing shortage and backlogs in essentially all areas. When AMD then gets additional capacity (like the recently reported capacity that MediaTek gave up on) then you can bet that it first goes to businesses that are sure fire earners with sales essentially already done for AMD, like semi custom for Sony and Microsoft as well as the existing datacenter backlogs.

 

[simas]

Sure, AMD is not going to change already planned capacity. What we were talking about was AMD being too conservative with its planning, facing shortage and backlogs in essentially all areas. When AMD then gets additional capacity (like the recently reported capacity that MediaTek gave up on) then you can bet that it first goes to businesses that are sure fire earners with sales essentially already done for AMD, like semi custom for Sony and Microsoft as well as the existing datacenter backlogs.

Agree with above. AMD has a lot of choices in prioritizations of potentially available capacity , including entire areas like APUs, CPUs, semi custom (all new consoles are sold out for who knows how long) , laptop chips, etc - last thing they want is to rush things and damage the brand.

 

[Gideon]

I would like to see a direct comparison between AMD and intel employee count that is strictly CPU design related. AMD has radeon while intel has foundry, memory,GPU etc personnel too.

Well Intel did mention at one point that they had more software people than hardware, even making a joke thet they're a software company now.
So it's definitely not just the foundries.

 

[dr1337]

Norrod said that with Zen2 they were not able target all servers (meaning HPC segment).

Actually AMD themselves have said that zen 2 did cover all of their HPC needs and has gaps in cloud and enterprise.

And frankly I have to disagree with the rest of your paragraph in regards to AMDs current position in FPU performance.

Rome as is already knocks on intels door without any avx512 support whatsoever. And this is 100% intel developed and optimized software fyi. Granted AMD is getting this performance by sheer number of cores, what matters is AMD can scale their design in a way that intel cant. It would be a different world if we had 64c xeons.

I'm not sure what AMD defines themselves as lacking in the cloud and enterprise sectors. From what I can tell it seems their only real weakness is latency and single core performance.

 

[Richie Rich]

Actually AMD themselves have said that zen 2 did cover all of their HPC needs and has gaps in cloud and enterprise.

And frankly I have to disagree with the rest of your paragraph in regards to AMDs current position in FPU performance.

Rome as is already knocks on intels door without any avx512 support whatsoever. And this is 100% intel developed and optimized software fyi. Granted AMD is getting this performance by sheer number of cores, what matters is AMD can scale their design in a way that intel cant. It would be a different world if we had 64c xeons.

I'm not sure what AMD defines themselves as lacking in the cloud and enterprise sectors. From what I can tell it seems their only real weakness is latency and single core performance.

Ok, I agree AMD is doing great today. But then what are those missing parts? AMD cannot solve missing AVX512 by adding more cores forever. Intel's next year Sapphire Rapids with DDR5 and chiplet/EMIB design will delete AMD's multicore advatage. And than what? Intel has AVX512 and new 8192-bit wide AMX (matrix multiplication, in Sapphire Rapids, remember ARM already has MatMul SVE SIMD since 2019 Fujitsu A64FX). That would be disaster for AMD to stay outdated that much.

IMHO Bfloat16 is one of the major things now as ML get a traction. It doubles FPU performance for ML. And it's a part of AVX512. Soon or later AMD has to implement either AVX512 & AMX or some their own post-AVX2 extension. IMHO Zen3 will have AVX512 support. C'mon It's been 7 years since AVX512 was introduced. How much time AMD needs to implement? Whole century?

 

[xilli_fiberbit]

The next evolution for ZEN4 it think is to have RDNA3 as chiplet so AMD can put on same EPYC chip with interposer some CPU chiplet cores and RDNA3/CDNA2 chiplet gpu and HBM2(e)/3. Bfloat16 is supported only since cooper lake which has been introduced last month... And it's not sure that saphire rapid server part will be introduced in 2021 with the one year delay on Intel 7nm...

AMD on EPYC has advantage too in security with the Processor Platform Secure Boot (PSB), and in combinaison too with SME (Secure Memory Encryption) and SEV (Secure Encrypted Virtualization) and
Secure Encrypted Virtualization-Encrypted State (SEV-ES)

 

[dr1337]

Intel's next year Sapphire Rapids with DDR5 and chiplet/EMIB design will delete AMD's multicore advatage.

I'll believe that when I see it, but right now it looks like intel is going to struggle greatly to get any sort of meaningful volume out of 10nm even through '21. I'd really like them to come out with their MCM solution and keep up with AMD but it isn't looking so good for that any time soon.

Intels biggest threat in servers is falling behind in core count. Not because of AMD but because of ARM. With most people offloading FP heavy tasks to accelerators anyways, its often advantageous to have more cores than more FP width. This will become more true as time goes on as well, with all major players working on scaling up HSA designs. With ARM pushing out 192 core chips by 2022, even if sapphire rapids finally comes to fruition by then intel will still be behind arguably their biggest threat.

I do agree though that zen 3 should support more advanced instructions, and I think it will. Even though the perlmutter supercomputer listed milan as only being avx256, im fairly certain there will be some form of bfloat16/advanced vector support.

 

[Thunder 57]

Ok, I agree AMD is doing great today. But then what are those missing parts? AMD cannot solve missing AVX512 by adding more cores forever. Intel's next year Sapphire Rapids with DDR5 and chiplet/EMIB design will delete AMD's multicore advatage. And than what? Intel has AVX512 and new 8192-bit wide AMX (matrix multiplication, in Sapphire Rapids, remember ARM already has MatMul SVE SIMD since 2019 Fujitsu A64FX). That would be disaster for AMD to stay outdated that much.

IMHO Bfloat16 is one of the major things now as ML get a traction. It doubles FPU performance for ML. And it's a part of AVX512. Soon or later AMD has to implement either AVX512 & AMX or some their own post-AVX2 extension. IMHO Zen3 will have AVX512 support. C'mon It's been 7 years since AVX512 was introduced. How much time AMD needs to implement? Whole century?

You may just be Howard Hughes reincarnated If big is good, why not bigger? Practicality be dammed!. Then you end up with the Hercules which was useless.

All you say is 6x ALU, no 12x ALU, SVE 2048 bit, now it's 8192 bit wide AMX. Your posts are nothing more than entertainment point.

EDIT, and how could I forget SMT4? Still think we'll see that Thursday with Zen 3?