It's important to note that real applications using a lot of FP compute also move around a lot of data. Doubling compute without widening the pipe to cache gives very diminishing returns, and more load units is a lot more expensive in power and silicon than more AVX units. If they just doubled the FMA pipes, but still have 2 load pipes of 256 bits, "up to 50%" might be a realistic estimation.
I agree that ""up to 50%" might be a realistic estimation."
Based on IPC comparisons we can see that Zen 3 is on the edge of 4/6xALU design (Apple's A10 has around 13 pts/GHz). So it might be last 4xALU uarch or first 6xALU uarch. When AMD stated it's completely new uarch from scratch I'd guess 6xALU is highly probable. Not only for higher IPC and future potential for core evolution in Zen 4 but also the heat spreading on larger surface.
Regarding FP that's a question. My original estimation was 6xALU and 4xFPU (8xpipes) with SMT4. Now with the leaks suggesting +40-50% FP IPC it might suggest just 6xFP pipes (3xFPU 256-bit). However IPC doesn't scale linearly so doubling FPUs might result in +50% IPC increase. So doubled FPU pipes seems feasible way IHMO.
Another trick AMD could do is shared FPU ala Bulldozer. Two cores would be 12xpipes (6x FPU 256-bit) instead 8+8xpipes (8xFPUs). Such a configuration would save a lot of transistors while producing similar performance. The cost is radical uarch change (cannot be done as Zen2 evolution). But it's new uarch and AMD has experience from Bulldozer so who knows. Such a shared FPU (and a front-end) has one nice advantage: 4-core CCX becomes 8-core CCX (L2$ is shared by two cores). This configuration is less probable IMHO.
IPC calculations of SPECint2006:
- - 9900K .... 54.28/5 GHz = 10.86 pts/GHz
- - 3950X .... 50.02/4.6 GH = 10.87 pts/GHz
- - A76 ........ 26.65/2.84 GHz = 9.38 pts/GHz
- - A77 ........ 33.32/2.84 GHz = 11.73 pts/GHz ...... +8% IPC over 9900K
- - A11 ........ 36.80/2.39 GHz = 15.40 pts/GHz .... +42% IPC over 9900K
- - A12 ........ 45.32/2.53 GHz = 17.91 pts/GHz .... +65% IPC over 9900K
- - A13 ........ 52.82/2.65 GHz = 19.93 pts/GHz .... +83% IPC over 9900K