Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)

[Vattila]

Except for the details about the improvements in the microarchitecture, we now know pretty well what to expect with Zen 3.

The leaked presentation by AMD Senior Manager Martin Hilgeman shows that EPYC 3 "Milan" will, as promised and expected, reuse the current platform (SP3), and the system architecture and packaging looks to be the same, with the same 9-die chiplet design and the same maximum core and thread-count (no SMT-4, contrary to rumour). The biggest change revealed so far is the enlargement of the compute complex from 4 cores to 8 cores, all sharing a larger L3 cache ("32+ MB", likely to double to 64 MB, I think).

Hilgeman's slides did also show that EPYC 4 "Genoa" is in the definition phase (or was at the time of the presentation in September, at least), and will come with a new platform (SP5), with new memory support (likely DDR5).

What else do you think we will see with Zen 4? PCI-Express 5 support? Increased core-count? 4-way SMT? New packaging (interposer, 2.5D, 3D)? Integrated memory on package (HBM)?

Vote in the poll and share your thoughts!

 

[moinmoin]

As it should an unlocked 96C/192T Monster should command an Absurd Amount of money because it will provide Absurd Performance.

A 16 cores SP5 Threadripper would only offer an absurde price for an absurde amount of I/O and memory channels, but not performance.

 

[Yosar]

Absolutely not apples and oranges. Bottom line is that it costs Intel less to make chips than AMD.

Surely not. They sank billions and billions dollars in their failed 10 nm process. Definitely more than TSMC. This is the cost intel pays for their chips. And they are sinking now another billions and billions in 7 nm and next ones (at the same time).
And as long as they won't find new customers for their 10 nm it's only them paying for it.
You can move this cost from one accounting book to another book, but in the end your margin depends on all your costs vs all your revenues.
Actually everyone claims every new process costs more than the last one, so now they're probably spending even more than for failed 10 nm. And no customer will make pre-payment for it. Even TSMC has some deals with Apple regarding pre-payment and exclusivity for new process, intel has no such a customer.
AMD doesn't pay TSMC for new process. It's AMD, Apple, nVidia, Qualcomm etc they pay collectively for new process. Intel pays all by itself.
It doesn't matter intel has their own foundries. Those foundries must bring profits or investors won't be too happy about them.

 

[maddie]

Surely not. They sank billions and billions dollars in their failed 10 nm process. Definitely more than TSMC. This is the cost intel pays for their chips. And they are sinking now another billions and billions in 7 nm and next ones (at the same time).
And as long as they won't find new customers for their 10 nm it's only them paying for it.
You can move this cost from one accounting book to another book, but in the end your margin depends on all your costs vs all your revenues.
Actually everyone claims every new process costs more than the last one, so now they're probably spending even more than for failed 10 nm. And no customer will make pre-payment for it. Even TSMC has some deals with Apple regarding pre-payment and exclusivity for new process, intel has no such a customer.
AMD doesn't pay TSMC for new process. It's AMD, Apple, nVidia, Qualcomm etc they pay collectively for new process. Intel pays all by itself.
It doesn't matter intel has their own foundries. Those foundries must bring profits or investors won't be too happy about them.

Yeah, some seem to think only direct production costs should be considered. What is very interesting are the comments being made by TSMC and the staff, both US and Taiwanese, about operating cultures in the USA vs Taiwan, vis-à-vis work schedules and commitment to the company in the new continental fab being built. I don't think it will be quite a smooth start-up. A rare insight into the cultural and business differences between Intel and TSMC.

 

[Kaluan]

Actually prices "dropped" down to AMD s announced MSRP...

Let me guess, you live in the US...

13600K costs over 30% more than 7600X were I live (not Eurozone, but in Europe).

So please, just stop 😂

Edit: Just checked, 13900K is 23% more expensive than 7950X 😮

 

[Timmah!]

Are the X3D models confirmed to be revealed at CES? I mean, given this current price-drop, is there any chance of it to be more imminent? I have 7950x ordered (still at the original price, but going to cancel that and re-order), but if there was a chance 7950X3D being a thing still this year, i would want that one.

 

[Abwx]

Let me guess, you live in the US...

13600K costs over 30% more than 7600X were I live (not Eurozone, but in Europe).

So please, just stop 😂

Edit: Just checked, 13900K is 23% more expensive than 7950X 😮

That was quite a wild guess, i m in (east) France, although i often go to Germany to buy some stuff since it takes me 20km to be there...

If we look at Computerbase summary the 7950X/7900X/7700X/7600X launch prices were supposed to be 699/549/399/299$.

This should had translated in as much € but there was obviously a price hike from the retailers, current lowest european price are now exactly there +-5%, possibly that AMD made a 5% reduction but no more since retail prices were inflated from the start.

Zen-4-CPUs für AM5: Massive Preissenkungen bei AMD Ryzen 7000

Mutmaßlich als Reaktion auf eine geringe Nachfrage wurden die Preise der AMD Ryzen 7000 im Handel nochmals deutlich gesenkt.

www.computerbase.de

Prozessoren (CPUs) AMD mit CPU-Serie AMD: Ryzen 7000 Preisvergleich Geizhals Deutschland

Preisvergleich und Bewertungen für Prozessoren (CPUs) AMD mit CPU-Serie AMD: Ryzen 7000

geizhals.de

 

[RnR_au]

Are the X3D models confirmed to be revealed at CES? I mean, given this current price-drop, is there any chance of it to be more imminent? I have 7950x ordered (still at the original price, but going to cancel that and re-order), but if there was a chance 7950X3D being a thing still this year, i would want that one.

Nothing has been confirmed from my understanding.

 

[eek2121]

Yeah, some seem to think only direct production costs should be considered. What is very interesting are the comments being made by TSMC and the staff, both US and Taiwanese, about operating cultures in the USA vs Taiwan, vis-à-vis work schedules and commitment to the company in the new continental fab being built. I don't think it will be quite a smooth start-up. A rare insight into the cultural and business differences between Intel and TSMC.

I absolutely do not think that, however Intel made so much money off 14nm products it is basically a wash. Remember that AMD only took the total performance crown with Zen 3. Prior to that, Intel was still ahead in many areas.

 

[Asterox]

AMD Ryzen 7000 gets a massive price cut in Europe, 7950X now for just 669 EUR - VideoCardz.com

AMD Ryzen 9 7950X drops from 849 EUR to just 648 EUR It looks like AMD Ryzen 7000 series are getting much cheaper for European customers. Update: Ryzen 7000 series are now even cheaper, this post has been updated accordingly. Some retailers in Europe are beginning to discount Ryzen 7000 series...

videocardz.com

Competition is good, looking forward to CES announcements.

Fake news 60%, if we use R5 7600X as an example and the recommended launch price of $300.

Massive price cut, maybe on Klingon if we look at Ryzen 5 or in general AMD most popular(DiY sales numbers) CPU series.

Alza operates in five EU countries.

https://www.computeruniverse.net/en/p/90910942

https://www.amazon.de/-/en/5-7600X-...?keywords=ryzen+5+7600x&qid=1669034368&sr=8-1

https://geizhals.at/?fs=AMD+Ryzen+5+7600X&hloc=at

https://www.alza.sk/amd-ryzen-5-7600x-d7435938.htm

https://www.mindfactory.de/product_info.php/AMD-Ryzen-5-7600X-6x-4-70GHz-So-AM5-WOF_1464662.html

Protis - AMD CPU Desktop Ryzen 5 6C/12T 7600X (4.7/5.0GHz Boost,38MB,105W,AM5) box, with Radeon Graphics

www.protis.hr

Mindfactory is a little cheaper, but in general R5 7600X prices can vary widely.

"CPU prices are not a problem", overpriced AM5 motherboards are still a big problem. We need cheap AM5 motherboards around $100.

R5 7600X+200$ matherboard, no thanks, we are waiting for even cheaper motherboards or A620 models.

Cheap motherboards | Alzashop.com

Motherboards ordered by price from the least expensive. ✅ Almost all products are in stock. ✅ We deliver items to your home within 2 days. ✅ We will gladly ...

www.alza.sk

 

[jamescox]

I absolutely do not think that, however Intel made so much money off 14nm products it is basically a wash. Remember that AMD only took the total performance crown with Zen 3. Prior to that, Intel was still ahead in many areas.

It is difficult to compare two companies with different levels of vertical integration. Also, AMD’s chiplet strategy was partially to reduce cost. For the common consumer part, only about 1/3 of the silicon is on the expensive process and 2/3 is a much cheaper process. I don’t know how GF 14 nm compares to whatever 6 nm TSMC process that AMD is using for Zen 4. They will need to switch to TSMC for some components if stacking is used anyway. Some embedded die can still be made at GF though. I expect 6 nm is likely still a significant cost savings vs. monolithic, although they may have more defective parts on the much smaller process.

The ability to salvage parts also is a large cost savings and competitive advantage. The F-series parts only have a few cores active per chiplet, all the way down to 1 core for Milan and 2 cores for Genoa. Due to their design, these actually sell at a premium price. The cache will have redundant blocks to reduce the effects of defects, but they still seem to have some low end parts with half the cache disabled. AMD should be able to use almost all of the parts that they make in some manner. That should be a significant cost savings, especially vs. 40 core monolithic design. I have seen an estimate of 628 mm2 for Intel’s 40 core. AMD can go up to 32 core with only 4 chiplets at around 288 mm2 for Zen 4 compute die. It would go up to around 576 for AMD with 8 chiplets, but a lot of those might be salvage parts sold at a premium due to the ability to bin 8 core parts separately.

The switch to 6 nm for a more complex IO die makes me think that Siena might be salvage IO die with links and memory channels disabled. Intel will eventually have a “tile” based part, but they seem to still have yield issues. Is it 14 cores per tile? That doesn’t offer as much salvage opportunities. They also are trying to use stacking at the same time, so it isn’t exactly surprising that they are having issues.

 

[Asterox]

These are now officially lower prices, but for now hm only on AMD store and on Amazon.Globally we are still waiting for the listed lower prices.

AMD Ryzen 7000 CPUs get official 'New Low Prices' on AMD webstore - VideoCardz.com

AMD Ryzen 7000 get significant price cuts on official webstore AMD has now implemented the same prices for its Zen4 desktop CPUs as Newegg and Amazon on their own official US webstore. The company has now followed other big retailers who were the first to offer desktop Ryzen 7000 series at...

videocardz.com

If I look at my previous post, in my country R5 7600X still wears 360euro.

 

[nicalandia]

Are the X3D models confirmed to be revealed at CES? I mean, given this current price-drop, is there any chance of it to be more imminent? I have 7950x ordered (still at the original price, but going to cancel that and re-order), but if there was a chance 7950X3D being a thing still this year, i would want that one.

I Would not bet on a 7950X3D SKU being made. They really only need the 7800X3D or the 7600X3D to keep the gaming crown.

 

[eek2121]

AMD has significantly reduced prices, it seems. $574 for the 7950x. $474 for the 7900X. $349 for the 7700x. $249 for the 7600x. I wish I had a reason to build another system. 🤣

 

[Kaluan]

I Would not bet on a 7950X3D SKU being made. They really only need the 7800X3D or the 7600X3D to keep the gaming crown.

Really? You think there aren't enough halo product buyers that want the best of both worlds (7950X3D)? 7950X3D would likely also fetch bigger margins for AMD than 7700/7800X3D and so called 7600X3D.

Last but not least, i expect Raphael-X parts to trounce vanilla in productivity too (by a small margin in a wide test suite).

So if they can do it, why wouldn't AMD want to eat the cake too? lol

 

[maddie]

Really? You think there aren't enough halo product buyers that want the best of both worlds (7950X3D)? 7950X3D would likely also fetch bigger margins for AMD than 7700/7800X3D and so called 7600X3D.

Last but not least, i expect Raphael-X parts to trounce vanilla in productivity too (by a small margin in a wide test suite).

So if they can do it, why wouldn't AMD want to eat the cake too? lol

If AMD is being smart in a time of difficult sales, they would aim for as many market niches as possible. Their chiplet + 3D-cache tech allows a very low cost entry to many markets. Even if it wasn't the original plan, they should use the flexibility of chiplets to be, well, flexible.

 

[inf64]

Really? You think there aren't enough halo product buyers that want the best of both worlds (7950X3D)? 7950X3D would likely also fetch bigger margins for AMD than 7700/7800X3D and so called 7600X3D.

Last but not least, i expect Raphael-X parts to trounce vanilla in productivity too (by a small margin in a wide test suite).

So if they can do it, why wouldn't AMD want to eat the cake too? lol

I agree and I expect AMD to at least launch 16 core part with Vcache. If they can hold the same clocks as with vanilla parts, they will basically end up winning vast majority of desktop workloads.

 

[igor_kavinski]

AMD has significantly reduced prices, it seems. $574 for the 7950x. $474 for the 7900X. $349 for the 7700x. $249 for the 7600x. I wish I had a reason to build another system. 🤣

You can. Your systems are so small that you can stack them on top of each other. You could have an entire WALL of systems!

 

[igor_kavinski]

So if they can do it, why wouldn't AMD want to eat the cake too? lol

That would run the risk of encroaching on Epyc territory as some people/organizations could buy the 7950X3D to save money for their V-cache loving applications (like databases), depriving AMD and their partners of fat server profits. I think this is the reason they didn't go forward with 5900X3D which they originally showed. It must have performed really well in cache dependent professional applications.

 

[nicalandia]

AMD will not release a 16 V Cache because a second chiplet will not give more gaming performance than the single CCD and they will be selling each of those at top dollar as in Genoa-X

 

[inf64]

AMD will not release a 16 V Cache because a second chiplet will not give more gaming performance than the single CCD and they will be selling each of those at top dollar as in Genoa-X

I think there is still a chance we'll see 8C and 16C Vcache models. I'm basing this on the original AMD presentation that had 5900X3D (which required two Vcache addon chiplets). We'll know soon.

 

[nicalandia]

I think there is still a chance we'll see 8C and 16C Vcache models. I'm basing this on the original AMD presentation that had 5900X3D (which required two Vcache addon chiplets). We'll know soon.

The reasons for not releasing the 5900X3D Model are still the same as they are today. Same 15% average gaming performance boost and that the second CCD will yield higher margins as a EPYC-X CPU

 

[eek2121]

AMD will not release a 16 V Cache because a second chiplet will not give more gaming performance than the single CCD and they will be selling each of those at top dollar as in Genoa-X

It’s not just about gaming. Certain workloads outside of gaming benefit.

I don’t think AMD will release one, obviously, but if they did I would certainly purchase one.

 

[nicalandia]

It’s not just about gaming. Certain workloads outside of gaming benefit.

AMD knows this already. They already have a 16 Core EPYC with 3D V Cache which they sell for about $4,000

 

[Exist50]

I feel like supply/production constraints must factor in. Surely there's a market for e.g. software devs that would love a 7950X3D, but are not willing to pay for Genoa-X. Maybe for Zen 5 they expand their use of 3D cache.

 

[nicalandia]

For those of you wanting to build a Micro-ATX Genoa Workstation

https://www.asrockrack.com/general/productdetail.asp?Model=GENOAD8UD-2T/X550