This kid and his parents are idiots. He basically gets a total reprieve after recklessly kiling four people and maiming two others. Then he violates probation by drinking. But instead of going to court and getting maybe 30 days tops, he elects to leave the country...
I doubt he would have even gotten 30 days if this was his first violation. PO's generally don't want to throw you in jail and will only do so after multiple serious violations. I guess he could have had a real hard ass for a PO but over the years I spent in the roofing industry I had quite a few guys work for me who were on probation. The majority of them screwed up a few times and none of them even had to see a judge over it. I think one guy had to take an extra class over one of his fuckups or something. I did have two people arrested on job sites and at the shop but they flat out blew off their PO and the terms for 6 months or something. Even then they only had to serve 15-30 days and not their full sentence.
Basically as long as you talk to them you and don't fuck up too bad your chances of going to jail are very low. Drinking at a party (haven't heard anyone claiming he drove drunk) while being a violation was very doubtful to land him in jail. Running
will land his ass in jail and they won't be very quick to let him out since he is a known flight risk. Not to mention how high profile this case is, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if they make him serve the entire 10 years now.
And if the US Marshals really want you, they will get you. One thing that dumb (even smart) rich folk can't do very easily is to live on the run. You can only carry so much cash without getting caught, robbed or killed and they are used to a high lifestyle. I bet there is already a credit card trail.
If they have made it to a non-extradition country it will be amusing to see how they live once all of their accounts and credit cards are frozen.