Statistics - need some help

[FrustratedUser]

I suck at statistics so here we go....

There's a lottery with 100 numbers. I've got 6 so that gives me a 6% chance of winning.
Now, this lottery will be drawn 3 times and I got the same 6 numbers in each draw.

What are my overall odds of winning?

 

[raptor13]

17.103%


EDIT:

I'm assuming that no number can be drawn twice. Since you're curious, here's what I did in lay terms:

The chance of you hitting the first number is 6%. The chance of you not hitting it is 94%. On the second number, assuming you didn't hit the first, your chance of not winning is 93/99, or 93.9393...%. On the last draw, your chances of not winning again assuming you didn't hit a number before is 92/98 or about 93.8755%.

The chance all three of those independent events occurs is the product of their probability of occuring, or (94*93*92)/(100*99*98) or 82.897%. You, of course, want the chances of winning which is simply 1 minus that 82.897% chance of losing: 17.103%.

EDIT AGAIN:

Thinking of this calculation in terms of simply not losing three times in a row, which is what I explained above, simplifies the problem because you don't care on which of the three draws you win as long as you win one of them.

 

[FrustratedUser]

... and how's that?

 

[UCDAggies]

Does it say odds or probability. Odds and probability are two different things. With two different results.

What do you mean you have 6?

 

[raptor13]

Originally posted by: UCDAggies
Does it say odds or probability. Odds and probability are two different things. With two different results.

What do you mean you have 6?

Yeah, they are two different things. Most people - as I'm assuming FrustratedUser did - use the terms interchangeably. Does he really care that his odds of winning to losing are about 17:83? No. Does he care his probability of winning is about 17.103%? Yes.

I'm trying to keep things simple.

 

[chuckywang]

16.94% if the lottery can repeat numbers.

There is a .94 chance you don't win for each draw, so for 3 draws, there is a .94^3 chance you don't win. Therefore, there is a 1-.94^3 chance you do win.

Similarly, 17.103% chance if the lotter can't repeat numbers (equals 1-94/100*93/99*92/98).

 

[FrustratedUser]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
16.94% if the lottery can repeat numbers.

There is a .94 chance you don't win for each draw, so for 3 draws, there is a .94^3 chance you don't win. Therefore, there is a 1-.94^3 chance you do win.

Similarly, 17.103% chance if the lotter can't repeat numbers (equals 1-94/100*93/99*92/98).

16.94% chance of winning is pretty good.

 

[FrustratedUser]

Originally posted by: UCDAggies
Does it say odds or probability. Odds and probability are two different things. With two different results.

What do you mean you have 6?

I've got 6 numbers....


Thx guys.

 

[FrustratedUser]

The lottery can repeat numbers.

 

[raptor13]

Originally posted by: FrustratedUser
The lottery can repeat numbers.

Now I'm confused.

Do you mean three numbers will be drawn and you have to hit all three of them? Or do you mean you have six numbers, three numbers will be drawn, and as long as you have one of those three numbers, you win? If it's the former, everything we've done so far is wrong. If it's the latter, what kind of messed up lottery is that if numbers can repeat?

Clarify, please.

 

[FrustratedUser]

Nonono....

There are 3 separate drawings and I will have the same 6 nunmbers in each of them. Consequently number '23' can win all three times. That's what I meant.

 

[raptor13]

Originally posted by: FrustratedUser
Nonono....

There are 3 separate drawings and I will have the same 6 nunmbers in each of them. Consequently number '23' can win all three times. That's what I meant.

Got it. Then you're down to a 16.94% chance of success. Good luck with that.

 

[FrustratedUser]

I'd say that's good.

 

[chuckywang]

It's not a real lottery, it's homework.

 

[FrustratedUser]

Originally posted by: chuckywang
It's not a real lottery, it's homework.

wrong...... I'll post pics if I win.

I haven't had homework to do since 1989.