Statistics Question - Beating Roulette

[SunnyD]

The only way to beat roulette is to just make sure there's no bullets in the gun in the first place.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: TankGuys
I love roulette - my wife and I won handsomely on our honeymoon. The difference was, we realized it's *entirely* random. I got quite a kick out of the 3 different people who sat down beside me, telling me the "best strategy". One lady swore it was best to play one single number. The next guy had a strategy similar to what you are talking about. The third person said something about betting blocks. I couldn't help but find humor in the fact that all three of them ran out of money while I kept winning. Even that was purely luck

The thing about roulette, in my mind (and If I'm wrong, someone feel free to correct me - it's been quite a few years since I took stats) is that it makes basically no difference how you bet. You can randomly throw chips out onto the board, and you'll do the same, in the long run, as any strategy. Since any given bet you make has a payout tied directly to the odds of it landing, the specific bets are essentially irrelevant.

I'm not sure if that's quite the case... what you want to look at is the odds to payoff ratio, and I don't know if they're exactly equal for all bets. I suspect they're very close though, so for all practical purposes, you're probably right.

 

[EMPshockwave82]

Originally posted by: jdobratz
The roulette spins are completely independent of each other, the previous spins have no bearing on the current one.

This


The wheel has no memory. This man will lose money quickly thinking like this.

 

[CrazyLazy]

Legalized gambling is the reason all students should be required to take a statistics class. The expected value for some bets is better than others, scroll to the table part way down on the wikipedia page.

 

[Eeezee]

The chances of getting that fifth black are the same as the chances of getting the first black, slightly less than 50% (since in Roulette there's the wonderful "everyone's fucked" button)

To make it easy, let's just use coin flipping (so either red or black, 50/50)

Let's say you get three heads in a row. What are the chances of getting a fourth head? 50%.

What are the chances of getting 4 blacks in a row (assuming 50/50)? (1/2)^4 = 1/16. As you can see, each time we flipped the coin we always had a 50% chance of getting black. The chances of getting the 4th black are the same as the chances of getting the 1st black. The chances of getting 4 blacks is 1/16, but the other possibilities are r-b-b-b, r-r-b-b, r-r-r-r, etc., which is irrelevant to the question. The chances of getting black don't change no matter how many blacks in a row may have come up.

You're right to make fun of that guy, he has no idea what he's talking about.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: SunnyD
The only way to beat roulette is to just make sure there's no bullets in the gun in the first place.

This

OR fully load the gun and only play with one person, and make them go first. Then you're guaranteed to win.

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: Toasthead

Originally posted by: dmw16
I know gambling is not a sound "investment" nor are lottery tickets. However, going to the casino for a night with your buds is fun as long as you see it for what it is...entertainment.

Yes, each spin is independent, but I can't shake the feeling that while the odds of black coming in any one spin are (we'll say for the sake of argument) 1/2, but the odds are black coming 5 times in a row is 1/(2^5). So are you betting against a string of events?

Like I said, my logic tells me that it is total bull, but I have an this feeling it isn't. I am not gonna run to the casino, but I am looking for a valid, numerical explanation to convince me I guess.

yes, but its ALREADY come up black 4 times, so those spins are taken out...the odd of it coming up BLACK BLACK BLACK BLACK RED are just as incredible.

Yes, this is a good explanation

Getting 5 black in a row is 1/(2^5)
Getting 4 black in a row followed by 1 red is 1/(2^5)
As we can see, the chances of getting a 5th black are the same as getting your first red

 

[acheron]

Originally posted by: Gibsons

Originally posted by: TankGuys
I love roulette - my wife and I won handsomely on our honeymoon. The difference was, we realized it's *entirely* random. I got quite a kick out of the 3 different people who sat down beside me, telling me the "best strategy". One lady swore it was best to play one single number. The next guy had a strategy similar to what you are talking about. The third person said something about betting blocks. I couldn't help but find humor in the fact that all three of them ran out of money while I kept winning. Even that was purely luck

The thing about roulette, in my mind (and If I'm wrong, someone feel free to correct me - it's been quite a few years since I took stats) is that it makes basically no difference how you bet. You can randomly throw chips out onto the board, and you'll do the same, in the long run, as any strategy. Since any given bet you make has a payout tied directly to the odds of it landing, the specific bets are essentially irrelevant.

I'm not sure if that's quite the case... what you want to look at is the odds to payoff ratio, and I don't know if they're exactly equal for all bets. I suspect they're very close though, so for all practical purposes, you're probably right.

When you throw your chips randomly on the table, keep away from the green squares, and everything's equal. Most American style tables (with both a 0 and 00) let you do a 5-number bet on 0/00/1/2/3 that is mathematically worse than the other bets.

On a standard table, the other bets all pay out equally.

Edit: There's a table of payouts and odds for a standard American table at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette ... according to that, most bets have an EV of -$0.053, the 5-number bet is -$0.079.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

If anyone ever tells you they have a system to beat a specific casino game laugh in their face and ask them why they're talking about it rather than living on a tropical island somewhere enjoying their winnings. That should settle things right there.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: dmw16
Thank you. That should work to convince the office dumb-dumb

Assuming there are more than 2 people in the office - you and him - that it's continued for more than 10 minutes indicates there's more than one dumb-dumb in the office.

 

[DrPizza]

did my 4 years of undergrad in aerospace engineering
starting another 3 years of graduate school on the 2nd in aerospace w/ a focus on advanced propulsion.

And you couldn't figure out what was wrong with you coworkers scheme?? Shame on you/shame on Maryland's statistics courses.

 

[kedlav]

Originally posted by: TankGuys
I love roulette - my wife and I won handsomely on our honeymoon. The difference was, we realized it's *entirely* random. I got quite a kick out of the 3 different people who sat down beside me, telling me the "best strategy". One lady swore it was best to play one single number. The next guy had a strategy similar to what you are talking about. The third person said something about betting blocks. I couldn't help but find humor in the fact that all three of them ran out of money while I kept winning. Even that was purely luck

The thing about roulette, in my mind (and If I'm wrong, someone feel free to correct me - it's been quite a few years since I took stats) is that it makes basically no difference how you bet. You can randomly throw chips out onto the board, and you'll do the same, in the long run, as any strategy. Since any given bet you make has a payout tied directly to the odds of it landing, the specific bets are essentially irrelevant.

That's essentially correct. If you play Roulette long enough, all but the greens will average to the same payout (well, loss really), with the greens being slightly less in value. You can have a winning system in roulette, but that requires figuring out table bias, which isn't easy!

 

[Cogman]

How do you win at roulette? Easy, run the roulette machine. There is a reason casinos stay in business and it isn't the nice hotel that they are often attached to.

 

[TankGuys]

Originally posted by: kedlav

Originally posted by: TankGuys
I love roulette - my wife and I won handsomely on our honeymoon. The difference was, we realized it's *entirely* random. I got quite a kick out of the 3 different people who sat down beside me, telling me the "best strategy". One lady swore it was best to play one single number. The next guy had a strategy similar to what you are talking about. The third person said something about betting blocks. I couldn't help but find humor in the fact that all three of them ran out of money while I kept winning. Even that was purely luck

The thing about roulette, in my mind (and If I'm wrong, someone feel free to correct me - it's been quite a few years since I took stats) is that it makes basically no difference how you bet. You can randomly throw chips out onto the board, and you'll do the same, in the long run, as any strategy. Since any given bet you make has a payout tied directly to the odds of it landing, the specific bets are essentially irrelevant.

That's essentially correct. If you play Roulette long enough, all but the greens will average to the same payout (well, loss really), with the greens being slightly less in value. You can have a winning system in roulette, but that requires figuring out table bias, which isn't easy!

Don't the greens pay out at 36-1 odds, same as any other single number? In which case, they are no different than, say, 5 or 6.

Otherwise, you guys are right - the greens throw a minor wrench in the works, and they are what give the house the edge. But I still would think that playing a block of 6 numbers , vs playing a single number will, in the long run, equal out. Similarly, playing a block of 4 will ultimately be the same, or at least exceptionally close to playing red. Ultimately, I'd bet basically any bet comes out nearly the same in the long run.

It'd actually be interesting to sit down and do the stats to see. Of course, I'm sure they've been done a million times before - I'm just too lazy to re-do them, or look them up right now

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: EMPshockwave82

Originally posted by: jdobratz
The roulette spins are completely independent of each other, the previous spins have no bearing on the current one.

This


The wheel has no memory. This man will lose money quickly thinking like this.

actually, the fact that he makes a choice for a stupid reason doesn't affect his odds of winning, since iirc your long-term odds are the same regardless of what you bet

edit: 6666th post

 

[chuckywang]

Originally posted by: dmw16
Ok, so this question came up at work today over coffee and was inspired by this get-rich quick person we like to mock.

They said, they found this system to beat Roulette and I am having trouble convincing myself they are wrong even tho I feel like they are.

So here is how it works:

Watch the Roulette table and after black comes up 4 times in bet on Red. The "emotional" logic would say the odds are black coming 5 times a row is very low, but the pure logic side of me says that 4 blacks in a row doesn't cause red to come up because each spin is a totally independent set of odds.

All that said, I am not a statistician and have only taken an intro to stat class. So can someone with more background weigh in on why this is BS or maybe totally valid?

Tell him to look up what "independent events" means in probability.

 

[bobeedee]

Edward O. Thorp (Beat the Dealer) claimed he had a method to win at roulette; never explained it though.

 

[gorcorps]

If there was a method to beat a game, the game wouldn't be at a casino. Remember, they're there to make money and provide you with entertainment... not provide you with prizes. If they don't have a house edge then it won't be there. The odds of black/red/00 coming up on the roulette wheel are the same as they are any other time. Everything is completely independent. If you have to play roulette, the best bet to make is a color. You have a bit less of a 50/50 shot because of the 2 green 00 spaces, but it's still not terrible.

 

[onlyCOpunk]

After having a major in Statistics and doing many statistical tests on casino games I can say with 100% confidence that roulette is completely random and there is NO way to beat the game. In fact there no games in a Casino you can "beat." The house advantage on every game is over 50% so eventually the house will always win.

 

[arrfep]

There was a show on the history channel about a Spanish family that made over a million playing roulette. This man spent years studying wheels at casinos, but his system was not entirely mathematical/statistical. He played wheels that had a bias to land on a particular number or range of numbers. This bias was pretty much factual, as it was determined it after observing thousands of spins. Of course, the casinos caught on and his plan was eventually foiled by simply changing the wheels from table to table.

 

[Kev]

If it comes up black 5 times in a row, then the odds of it hitting on red on the next spin is 5 out of 6.

You can't argue with that, it's science.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: Kev
If it comes up black 5 times in a row, then the odds of it hitting on red on the next spin is 5 out of 6.

You can't argue with that, it's science.

sarcasm?

 

[Mo0o]

Originally posted by: Kev
If it comes up black 5 times in a row, then the odds of it hitting on red on the next spin is 5 out of 6.

You can't argue with that, it's science.

WTF, what are you talking about. Clearly if you do the math right it's 6/6 so you're guaranteed to win. God it's so easy

 

[Eeezee]

Originally posted by: Kev
If it comes up black 5 times in a row, then the odds of it hitting on red on the next spin is 5 out of 6.

You can't argue with that, it's science.

You're wrong in a lot of ways. Here are just a few

1) Statistics is not science
2) You can argue with science (that's the point)
3) You did your statistics wrong. The odds of the next red are still slightly less than 50%, even if you hit 10,000,000 reds in a row prior to the next spin

 

[sswingle]

Roulette has the worst odds of anything in the casino. Except maybe keno.