Statistics Question - Beating Roulette

[Kev]

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: Kev
If it comes up black 5 times in a row, then the odds of it hitting on red on the next spin is 5 out of 6.

You can't argue with that, it's science.

You're wrong in a lot of ways. Here are just a few

1) Statistics is not science
2) You can argue with science (that's the point)
3) You did your statistics wrong. The odds of the next red are still slightly less than 50%, even if you hit 10,000,000 reds in a row prior to the next spin

Thanks for the detailed explanation... I was being sarcastic.

 

[Josh]

You cannot beat roulette with mathematics.

 

[Gibsons]

Originally posted by: Eeezee

Originally posted by: Kev
If it comes up black 5 times in a row, then the odds of it hitting on red on the next spin is 5 out of 6.

You can't argue with that, it's science.

You're wrong in a lot of ways. Here are just a few

1) Statistics is not science
2) You can argue with science (that's the point)
3) You did your statistics wrong. The odds of the next red are still slightly less than 50%, even if you hit 10,000,000 reds in a row prior to the next spin

I think if the wheel hit 10,000,000 reds in a row, I'd be betting on red under the assumption that the wheel is rigged or not functioning properly.

 

[HomeBrewerDude]

Originally posted by: dmw16
Ok, so this question came up at work today over coffee and was inspired by this get-rich quick person we like to mock.

They said, they found this system to beat Roulette and I am having trouble convincing myself they are wrong even tho I feel like they are.

So here is how it works:

Watch the Roulette table and after black comes up 4 times in bet on Red. The "emotional" logic would say the odds are black coming 5 times a row is very low, but the pure logic side of me says that 4 blacks in a row doesn't cause red to come up because each spin is a totally independent set of odds.

All that said, I am not a statistician and have only taken an intro to stat class. So can someone with more background weigh in on why this is BS or maybe totally valid?

Actually the logical bet would be to bet on the color stream continuing (e.g., betting another black after observing a string of blacks in a row). I challenge the board to figure out why this is rational.

 

[ghostman]

Hindsight is 20/20! If you've already witnessed something happen, then the chance that it happened is 100%. So those first 4 roulette spins on red already happened and they don't factor in on the chances of the fifth. If, instead, you called the colors before any of the spins occurred, then the chances of it being 5 reds is slim.

Using coins, you have 50% chance being heads/tails. If you already flipped 4 tails, then it's already happened - it's 100%. On the fifth shot, it would be:
100% x 50% = 50%
However, if you call 5 tails before any of the coin flips, then the 50% chance of each coin's flip factors in:
50% x 50% x 50% x 50% x 50% = 3.125%

 

[CycloWizard]

This is actually called the Gambler's Fallacy.

 

[ICRS]

Actually, most roulette wheels have a bias to them. They aren't perfect in how they spin and such. Even a slight bias can lead to great gains if you study the wheel long enough to figure out what it is.

 

[onlyCOpunk]

I don't know how you guys get it, roulette is completely random. They post the prior wins up there fool people into betting. It's not that hard to figure out. You have a wheel with 38 spaces, completely random where the ball falls.

It's like any casino game, they make you think there is a way to 'beat the system' but there is none. If this were ture and there was a way to beat a completely random game like roulette then surely someone would've figured it out by now. But all you hear are drunken gamblers tales of how they did or almost won some money.

 

[HopJokey]

Originally posted by: onlyCOpunk
I don't know how you guys get it, roulette is completely random. They post the prior wins up there fool people into betting. It's not that hard to figure out. You have a wheel with 38 spaces, completely random where the ball falls.

It's like any casino game, they make you think there is a way to 'beat the system' but there is none. If this were ture and there was a way to beat a completely random game like roulette then surely someone would've figured it out by now. But all you hear are drunken gamblers tales of how they did or almost won some money.

There may be table bias with the roulette wheel however since it is a mechanical device, even if ever so slight.

 

[Mo0o]

Originally posted by: ICRS
Actually, most roulette wheels have a bias to them. They aren't perfect in how they spin and such. Even a slight bias can lead to great gains if you study the wheel long enough to figure out what it is.

You would need to bet a lot of times towards that bias for it to pay off

 

[daveymark]

Originally posted by: Mo0o

Originally posted by: ICRS
Actually, most roulette wheels have a bias to them. They aren't perfect in how they spin and such. Even a slight bias can lead to great gains if you study the wheel long enough to figure out what it is.

You would need to bet a lot of times towards that bias for it to pay off

which is why the spanish family got caught

 

[DayLaPaul]

Only way to beat roulette is to cheat it, which isn't easy. I think I saw Sam do it on Quantum Leap once.

 

[Adam8281]

Is this a joke? Does OP really have 6000+ posts, and think that the odds of a black are greater after a string of reds? As already said ably many times in this post, that "feeling" you can't shake is the recognition that 5 reds IN A ROW is improbable, but that has nothing to do with the odds on the NEXT spin.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

If you can't convince yourself that they're wrong you're just as big an idiot as they are. Do yourself a favor and never get in the same time zone as a casino.

 

[Jack Ryan]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
gambling is a tax for those that don't understand math.
lottery tickets are a tax for those that don't understand math.

A very narrow view at the world you must have.

 

[Gibsons]

Phone up a Vegas casino, tell them you have 10K to bet on your method. they might send a limo to the airport for you. Tell them you have 50K and they might buy your plane ticket.

 

[HardcoreRobot]

If the bet was to get 5 in a row of a color, then that has low odds. But each spin of the wheel is completely independent, and each wager is completely independent. Past spins have absolutely no bearing on future spins.

There is a reason they started putting the board up of previous spins.... gets more people to the table who are suckered in by the same belief.

 

[TheNinja]

The only way to really hedge your bets in roullette is due to the guy spinning the wheel. It is probably a very boring job and over time the guy probably spins in the exact same almost every time. If you can start to spot trends over a certain dealer, you might increase your odds. Other than that there is nothing to "beat the game".

 

[Baked]

Originally posted by: IHateMyJob2004
gambling is a tax for those that don't understand math.
lottery tickets are a tax for those that don't understand math.

And what do you call people who put their life savings in investment and loss almost everything? People like this guy?

 

[OCGuy]

Your buddy is an idiot.

 

[EMPshockwave82]

Originally posted by: dmw16
Ok, so this question came up at work today over coffee and was inspired by this get-rich quick person we like to mock.

They said, they found this system to beat Roulette and I am having trouble convincing myself they are wrong even tho I feel like they are.

So here is how it works:

Watch the Roulette table and after black comes up 4 times in bet on Red. The "emotional" logic would say the odds are black coming 5 times a row is very low, but the pure logic side of me says that 4 blacks in a row doesn't cause red to come up because each spin is a totally independent set of odds.

All that said, I am not a statistician and have only taken an intro to stat class. So can someone with more background weigh in on why this is BS or maybe totally valid?

when you flip a coin you have a 50/50 chance it will come up heads. when you spin a roulette wheel you have a 18/38 chance it will come up black. spinning the wheel and getting a black number to come up and tossing a coin and getting heads are comprable. getting a heads on this flip doesn't change the odds on the next toss.

 

[darkxshade]

What's the record for the longest streak in a casino... anyone know?

 

[blinky8225]

Originally posted by: Adam8281
Is this a joke? Does OP really have 6000+ posts, and think that the odds of a black are greater after a string of reds? As already said ably many times in this post, that "feeling" you can't shake is the recognition that 5 reds IN A ROW is improbable, but that has nothing to do with the odds on the NEXT spin.

Since when does post count correlate with intelligence?

 

[jonks]

What role, if any, does statistics play in such a betting scheme? I understand the odds are the same each spin, but the statistics are not. For ex. if I document 100 consecutive five-spin trials I believe I'll find a much greater number where the five spins resulted in mixes of red and black (and green), and a much smaller number of spans where five consecutive spins resulted in all red or all black. Doesn't statistics come to play a role at some point, even if the probability/odds of any given spin are the same?

 

[EMPshockwave82]

Originally posted by: jonks
What role, if any, does statistics play in such a betting scheme? I understand the odds are the same each spin, but the statistics are not. For ex. if I document 100 consecutive five-spin trials I believe I'll find a much greater number where the five spins resulted in mixes of red and black (and green), and a much smaller number of spans where five consecutive spins resulted in all red or all black. Doesn't statistics come to play a role at some point, even if the probability/odds of any given spin are the same?

Ball is spun around a roulette wheel from a different starting location each time. Usually the ball is manually thrown at a different speed each time. Sometimes the wheel is manually spun so it is going a different speed each spin.

Sure statistics come into play but the equation that you would have to figure out in about 10-15 seconds would be about 15-20 pages of calculations based off of inaccurate observations of actions.


Stop trying to simplify this down into something that you can predict. If you could 100% predict the outcome of the game do you think that Vegas would be making as much money as they are?