Statistics Question - Beating Roulette

[Mo0o]

Originally posted by: jonks
What role, if any, does statistics play in such a betting scheme? I understand the odds are the same each spin, but the statistics are not. For ex. if I document 100 consecutive five-spin trials I believe I'll find a much greater number where the five spins resulted in mixes of red and black (and green), and a much smaller number of spans where five consecutive spins resulted in all red or all black. Doesn't statistics come to play a role at some point, even if the probability/odds of any given spin are the same?

The probability of getting RBRBB is exactly the same as getting RRRRR.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Originally posted by: Mo0o

Originally posted by: jonks
What role, if any, does statistics play in such a betting scheme? I understand the odds are the same each spin, but the statistics are not. For ex. if I document 100 consecutive five-spin trials I believe I'll find a much greater number where the five spins resulted in mixes of red and black (and green), and a much smaller number of spans where five consecutive spins resulted in all red or all black. Doesn't statistics come to play a role at some point, even if the probability/odds of any given spin are the same?

The probability of getting RBRBB is exactly the same as getting RRRRR.

This.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: jonks
What role, if any, does statistics play in such a betting scheme? I understand the odds are the same each spin, but the statistics are not. For ex. if I document 100 consecutive five-spin trials I believe I'll find a much greater number where the five spins resulted in mixes of red and black (and green), and a much smaller number of spans where five consecutive spins resulted in all red or all black. Doesn't statistics come to play a role at some point, even if the probability/odds of any given spin are the same?

I'm not sure why this thread was bumped, but I'll respond to your question:

Of course you'll find a greater number of 5 spins that result in mixes of red and black. But, in 5 particular spins, the probability of BBBBB is identical to the probability of BRBBR, which is identical to the probability of RRBBR, identical to BBBRB, identical to BRBRB...

Ignoring the greens for a moment, for 5 consecutive spins, there are 32 possible outcomes. 2 of those outcomes are the same color: BBBBB and RRRRR. The other 30 of those outcomes are a combination of R and B, and more importantly, are equally unique as RRRRR.

 

[Q]

I don't even know how to play roulette, is it just betting on color or something else as well?

 

[akshatp]

The reason the casinos put up a board with the last 20 numbers, is the reason that Roulette works for them. Its the people that think that future spins are directly affected by past events that get them to bet. Unfortunately, they lose.

Next time, play a game that you can beat with skill, like Blackjack. If you play perfectly, and I do mean perfectly, you should have an ever so slight advantage against the house.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: akshatp

Next time, play a game that you can beat with skill, like Blackjack. If you play perfectly, and I do mean perfectly, you should have an ever so slight advantage against the house.

Wrong. If you play "perfectly", you bring the house edge down to the lowest possible in the casino.

Now if you count cards, then you can get your money in when the house is at the disadvantage.

 

[BrownTown]

just FWIW, roulette CAN be beaten simply because the wheels are never perfect and imbalances will slightly change the odds. By observing enough wheels enough times you can find one that will give you an advantage over the house. I know there have been several instances of people doing this, and I also believe now that the wheels are regularly rebalanced so that even if you did find one that was a winner it woudl be changed soon.

 

[sjwaste]

Originally posted by: sswingle
Roulette has the worst odds of anything in the casino. Except maybe keno.

Nah. Roulette pays actual odds on wheels that don't spin 0 or 00. 50/50 if you bet colors, which isn't bad for a casino game. Of course, if the greens are present, that's to slant it a little bit towards the casino. You do, however, make actuals (1/36, 1/37, or 1/38) on most wheels.

Not the best odds, but there are far bigger sucker bets at the casino, considering that even a noob can bet on red/black all night. Compare that to blackjack, which is horribly slanted against the player if playing without a counting strategy.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: Quintox
I don't even know how to play roulette, is it just betting on color or something else as well?

This might help.
http://wizardofodds.com/play/roulette/

There are lots of bets: even, odd, red, black, 1st 12, 2nd 12, 3rd 12, high, low, or on any number from 1 to 36. I've never played roulette, but am surprised by the people claiming that it has the biggest house advantage other than Keno. While betting on a particular number has a decent house edge (5.26%), at many casinos, the even odds bets have a smaller house advantage, because you don't automatically lose on 00. It depends on the casino, whether you're in Vegas or Atlantic City, or wherever, but the rules vary slightly for 00. AFAIK, if you bet on a particular number, you automatically lose on 00. But, if you were to bet on red, for instance, and 00 comes up, in some casinos, it either rides, else you only lose half. This effectively halves the casino's edge.

Note: the biggest bet I've placed at a casino was quarter slots when I was dragged to a casino. I did it for entertainment. I've never played roulette at a casino. And, I know better than to play at tables with $20 minimums. (The minimum on black jack while I was at Casino Niagara).

But, as far as the casino's edge, at least on roulette, you don't have to be an expert to play. But, as far as it having the greatest house edge? Bullshit. Even if you lose on 0 and 00, the house edge is 5.26%. The house edge on Keno (about the worst) is more than 25%. For a long list of house edges, go here: edges

Oh, but one thing to keep in mind: the house edge on only .28% for blackjack means that the player plays PERFECTLY That means, they have one of these tables memorized: black jack tables and NEVER deviate from those tables on "hunches." I doubt that the vast majority of people posting in this thread can play perfect blackjack. Thus, the house edge is greater than .28% for them.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Originally posted by: akshatp

Next time, play a game that you can beat with skill, like Blackjack. If you play perfectly, and I do mean perfectly, you should have an ever so slight advantage against the house.

Wrong. If you play "perfectly", you bring the house edge down to the lowest possible in the casino.

Now if you count cards, then you can get your money in when the house is at the disadvantage.

But don't get the same fantasy that people have gotten from movies that they're going to be able to count cards and get rich quick. Counting cards simply means you're going to know when to start increasing your bets. Perfect card counting + perfect play doesn't really tip the scale in favor of the player as much as those movies would like to make you think. Sure, it does favor the player over the house, but not by so much that you will get rich quick.

 

[MrToilet]

When I play roulette I usually stick to the same strategy - go in with like $100, bet $10 a round, usually spreading out over the corners (8-1 odds), basket (11-1), and a few numbers here and there. I ended up winning $160 over an hour doing that - I got pretty lucky and hit on a couple numbers dead on though.

I think roulette and that poker-hold 'em game are a little more fun to play than blackjack, etc - at least it's just you vs. the house, not you vs. the dealer, you know? Last time I played blackjack whenever I got 19-20, the dealer kept getting 20's and 21's with the ace down so you didn't have a chance. I wanted to punch him.

 

[Schfifty Five]

Originally posted by: MrToilet
When I play roulette I usually stick to the same strategy - go in with like $100, bet $10 a round, usually spreading out over the corners (8-1 odds), basket (11-1), and a few numbers here and there. I ended up winning $160 over an hour doing that - I got pretty lucky and hit on a couple numbers dead on though.

I think roulette and that poker-hold 'em game are a little more fun to play than blackjack, etc - at least it's just you vs. the house, not you vs. the dealer, you know? Last time I played blackjack whenever I got 19-20, the dealer kept getting 20's and 21's with the ace down so you didn't have a chance. I wanted to punch him.

Playing against the dealer IS playing against the house. The dealer IS the house.

 

[zinfamous]

Originally posted by: dmw16
but the pure logic side of me says that 4 blacks in a row doesn't cause red to come up because each spin is a totally independent set of odds.

yes. feel free to continue mocking your dimwitted co-worker.

...or is this some sort of back-door Monty Hall problem?