Stock market death watch? Make some predictions for this coming year.

[Spungo]

I was watching some crazy asshole's video on youtube and one of the things he mentioned was that insiders of most companies are selling like crazy, which usually indicates the market is near the top. I'm looking through yahoo finance and that appears to be true for the most part.
Exxon - 1 buying, 6 selling
Berkshire Hathaway - 1 buying, 0 selling
Walmart - 0 buying, 4 selling
Chevron - 1 buying, 7 selling
Wells Fargo - 0 buying, 12 selling
IBM - 0 buying, 20 selling
Pfizer - 0 buying, 13 selling
Coke - 1 buying, 17 selling
Oracle - 0 buying, 18 selling
Philip Morris - 3 buying, 8 selling
Merck - 0 buying, 5 selling
Pepsi - 1 buying, 6 selling
Disney - 0 buying, 16 selling
Home Depot - 2 buying, 6 selling
United Technologies - 0 buying, 23 selling
McDonald's - 0 buying, 11 selling
Mastercard - 0 buying, 27 selling
UPS - 0 buying, 5 selling

So what does ATOT say about this? Is the party coming to an end? Is the "recovery bubble" about to end?

 

[DAGTA]

I think the market will drop for a few days in Feb when the next 'debt ceiling crisis' is played out, and then rise again on the last possible day when the deal is 'suddenly worked out'.

 

[noobsrevenge]

well if a guy on youtube said it... and your irrefutable numbers showing 1 buyer to 6 sellers, then thats proof enough for me.

 

[Crono]

My prediction for the immediate future: "Death watch" threads will become annoying

 

[SampSon]

They want to be more liquid. Probably a good idea until some things get ironed out.

 

[Printer Bandit]

December 13th.

 

[JTsyo]

Current outlook for 2014 seems to be slow growth. Nothing like the boom he have seen in 2013.

 

[Vdubchaos]

Yes, the market is near the top......of complete BS.

When it levels PROPER, it won't be pretty, that I will tell you.

 

[KB]

Insiders are often given stock as bonuses, so it makes sense that they want to liquidate the stock and get the money. It does look like earnings growth is slowing, and the P/E on the S&P is above historic average, but we aren't yet at bubble level (http://www.multpl.com/table) and most importantly interest rates on CDs and savings are still too low to be attractive.

Stocks will probably trend water for awhile until we see the fed taper.

 

[Capt Caveman]

More high school analysis by the OP. You'll always have more insider sales than purchases. And of the companies listed by the OP, those are the number of transactions. What was the percentage of insiders(individuals) that actually sold? What was the net percentage of insider shares sold?

Another retarded death watch thread by the OP.

 

[Genx87]

I think our market has had a good run this year. But I suspect it may taper off once the effects of Obamacare kick in in 2014. But who knows. It is running up in a slow economy. If the economy starts to really take off and unemployment ticks down. It could explode.

 

[Genx87]

btw insiders sell because of diversification. One thing if anybody is investing needs to do is diversify to limit risk. Having all your investments in one egg is a great way to get slammed when the egg cracks.

 

[Engineer]

When QE3 ends, the market drops.

 

[Kntx]

I think a diversified balanced portfolio will continue to return 7-8% annually as it always has.

 

[mshan]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100412493

http://www.businessweek.com/article...t-is-stronger-than-you-think?campaign_id=yhoo





(I kind of think that the default position is a general uptrend at least until say the second half of Obama's last year in office, when it becomes more apparent who next president will be. But that comment is also just a gut feeling / impression' nothing more, nothing less. Hopefully, like H. W. Bush, Obama does alot of the heavy lifting that he doesn't necessarily get credit for, but sets stage for more obvious prosperity for much broader segment of population, but which next president gets to take historical credit for).

http://www.turnerinvestments.com/resources/Turner/images/upload/documents/Millennials_2Q2012.pdf

http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=590496

http://www.morningstar.com/cover/videocenter.aspx?id=605163

 

[mshan]

LOL, just saw this on ZH: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...philly-fed-optimism-soars-second-highest-ever

"Our most important finding is that the impact of both nonfarm payrolls and advance GDP is small and statistically insignificant," says Hatzius. "

In contrast, the Philly Fed index, the Chicago PMI, and initial jobless claims contain a statistically significant and economically meaningful amount of information for growth.

For example, an increase in the first-release Philly Fed index equivalent to a [one standard deviation] surprise (about 8 points) is associated with an average growth pace of our CAI over a 6-month period that is almost 0.3 [percentage points] higher."


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-payrolls-shmayrolls-investors-being-174317919.html

(In 2011, when Greece had popped onto our tv screens (and massive refinancing of European banking system had to occur later that year (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000058679, then http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2012/01/global-healing-2012-vs-2009.html), wing nuts in Congress deliberately try and push an economy on edge into double dip recession (http://www.tradingmarkets.com/authors/gary_kaltbaum/page/3) so Obama doesn't get re-elected, and just now, when it really does seem like economy was poised to accelerate meaningfully (say 2.5% real GDP, vs too rosy earlier projections of 3%), same wing nuts blunt or try and delay this acceleration to regain control of Senate next year.)

 

[Meghan54]

My prediction for the immediate future: "Death watch" threads will become annoying

They already are.

 

[Spungo]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/09/your-money/09stra.html?pagewanted=all

As it turned out, 2008 was a catastrophe — engulfing investors in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. But based on the numbers compiled in a Bloomberg survey at the beginning of that year, not a single analyst had even the slightest inkling of the dire events that were about to transpire.

People having positive predictions is generally a bad sign. Most people are idiots, so everyone saying the trend is up probably means the trend will be down. What did everyone say in 1929? They said it will go up. What did everyone say in 1987? They said up. What did they say in 2000? Tech will go up forever! What did they say in 2008? Real estate will continue to rise 20% per year until only the 3 richest kings of Europe will own a house. I also remember self proclaimed experts trying to do a linear extrapolation of mosquito growth then concluding that we'll be neck deep in mosquitoes by 2020.

The effective unemployment rate is still at levels similar to the Great Depression

And the overall US labor force is shrinking.