Question Susquehanna's second chat with Charlie Demerjian

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LikeLinus

Lifer
Jul 25, 2001
11,518
670
126
Need I go on ?

Oddly enough, you do have a user, exquisitechar, who is flat out saying "Some of this is inaccurate..." But I don't see you asking him to provide proof that any of this is false? Not to throw exquisitechar under the bus, as I don't think he did anything wrong.

Seems odd that you're so hyped up trying to "prove me wrong" and ask for proof, when I never said anything other than the opinion that the person being interviewed runs a site that is very anti-intel. If you google the site name, you will see many threads on people talking about such. I simply said to take it with a grain of salt. As you should any interview with someone with an obvious bias. Truth or not, I never said it was either way.

But you didn't jump up and discuss the issues of someone saying exactly what you are accusing me of. I find the whole thing odd; especially since I did no such thing.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,757
14,785
136
Oddly enough, you do have a user, exquisitechar, who is flat out saying "Some of this is inaccurate..." But I don't see you asking him to provide proof that any of this is false? Not to throw exquisitechar under the bus, as I don't think he did anything wrong.

Seems odd that you're so hyped up trying to "prove me wrong" and ask for proof, when I never said anything other than the opinion that the person being interviewed runs a site that is very anti-intel. If you google the site name, you will see many threads on people talking about such. I simply said to take it with a grain of salt. As you should any interview with someone with an obvious bias. Truth or not, I never said it was either way.

But you didn't jump up and discuss the issues of someone saying exactly what you are accusing me of. I find the whole thing odd; especially since I did no such thing.
There is a difference between saying that some of it inaccurate, and saying there is "major bias". I even said some may not be true, but 80% true does not seem like "major bias". Your first comment that started this was that,

Then in post 21, you called me out. You just seem to defend Intel at every juncture. Right now, they have no defense. And everyone here seems to agree for the next 2 years or so.

Except you.
 

LikeLinus

Lifer
Jul 25, 2001
11,518
670
126
There is a difference between saying that some of it inaccurate, and saying there is "major bias". I even said some may not be true, but 80% true does not seem like "major bias". Your first comment that started this was that,

Then in post 21, you called me out. You just seem to defend Intel at every juncture. Right now, they have no defense. And everyone here seems to agree for the next 2 years or so.

Except you.

Correction, you called me out in post #20. I responded, not called you out, in post #21. It's the other way around and you're twisting the narrative to fit your agenda. I'm not defending any manufacture. I'm just pointing out the bias of the interviewee in the OP.
 
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H T C

Senior member
Nov 7, 2018
567
408
136
I'll finally get that price increase?

Seriously, I hope AMD manages to make as much cash as possible by the time Intel starts to react.

I'm all for AMD having a much bigger share of the CPU world, so long as it isn't priced too high.

How would you like for the 4900X (Zen 3 CPU) to go for ... say ... $300 more than the 3900X while offering around 15% performance uplift? How about a similar trend across the board for their entire Zen 3 CPUs line up?

If AMD gets too much ahead of Intel, they can get away with pricing like that.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,813
11,167
136
I would think if that timeline for Icelake Server was true they would just scrap it and roll with Saphhire Rapids.

That was my thinking as well. I ceLake Server was never supposed to be high volume anyway (Sapphire Rapids was). Sapphire Rapids is also featured in Aurora, so they can't afford to push it back too far.

Reading this... How can the man live with himself.... The sheer amount of negativity and joy over their failures

The man creates nothing

He may be correct though.

Icelake notebooks are everywhere it doesnt look like capacity problem

How many are actually selling to the public? What's the volume? Remember, there are entire announced SKUs (such as the top-end SKU) that you can't even buy right now.

edit: I would give him a little more credit if he had leaked copies of Intel's emails to OEMs. But he might lose some sources (such as they are) if he leaked anything specific like that.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
8,686
3,785
136
He may be correct though.

How many are actually selling to the public? What's the volume? Remember, there are entire announced SKUs (such as the top-end SKU) that you can't even buy right now.

Icelake mobile is no worse than Cometlake mobile for volume. They seem to be in about equal number of systems.

The Core i3 of Icelake is also the chip they were using on the HP black friday $300 system. Sometimes, you got i5's with the system too.

Dell has bunch of new Inspirons split between ICL and CML. There's a $599 cdn system with 256GB SSD and Core i3 1005G1. That's pretty cheap. Acer has Swift 3 and 5 with 1065G7. Lenovo has Ideapads with Icelake too. Of course, can't forget HP with their simple no-name "HP 14" or "HP 17" systems.

The top end SKU doesn't even matter. It's a 28W SKU that almost no one used in previous generations. The HP Spectre for example uses a "15W" SKU but has two settings, one a quieter 18W, and another, a 28W one. Who needs a 28W SKU then?

Yea, Icelake is limited, and it would be misleading to say they are shipping in volumes they wanted. But its also a lie to claim it only exists in flagship systems and in extremely small volume. Go outside, get some Best Buy or Walmart flyers and peruse through them. You'll see some Icelake systems too.

S|A also claimed 10nm was cancelled. Later when it was found it wasn't I think he gave bunch of excuses such as "10nm is cancelled, but 10nm+ is not" or whatever. I think what really happened is Intel found out who the leaker was and told him wrong info to discredit him.
 

Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,757
14,785
136
Icelake mobile is no worse than Cometlake mobile for volume. They seem to be in about equal number of systems.

The Core i3 of Icelake is also the chip they were using on the HP black friday $300 system. Sometimes, you got i5's with the system too.

Dell has bunch of new Inspirons split between ICL and CML. There's a $599 cdn system with 256GB SSD and Core i3 1005G1. That's pretty cheap. Acer has Swift 3 and 5 with 1065G7. Lenovo has Ideapads with Icelake too. Of course, can't forget HP with their simple no-name "HP 14" or "HP 17" systems.

The top end SKU doesn't even matter. It's a 28W SKU that almost no one used in previous generations. The HP Spectre for example uses a "15W" SKU but has two settings, one a quieter 18W, and another, a 28W one. Who needs a 28W SKU then?

Yea, Icelake is limited, and it would be misleading to say they are shipping in volumes they wanted. But its also a lie to claim it only exists in flagship systems and in extremely small volume. Go outside, get some Best Buy or Walmart flyers and peruse through them. You'll see some Icelake systems too.

S|A also claimed 10nm was cancelled. Later when it was found it wasn't I think he gave bunch of excuses such as "10nm is cancelled, but 10nm+ is not" or whatever. I think what really happened is Intel found out who the leaker was and told him wrong info to discredit him.
Can I ask you to tell me if this is a correct summation ? and correct me with what I don't understand. The only 10nm chips shipping are low end laptop chips.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,842
5,457
136
Intel's volume was down 10% in laptop and 11% in desktop in the 3Q mostly because of the 14 nm shortage. Kind of get the feeling looking back that they had no choice to use what they could produce on 10 nm to help alleviate it.

Icelake mobile is no worse than Cometlake mobile for volume. They seem to be in about equal number of systems.

Even looking at retail, Whiskey Lake appears to be easily the majority of the volume out there, probably because Intel is prioritizing it over Comet because it's a smaller die. Hence why Dell is upset because they want Comet Lake because it's newer.

Corporate uses fleet sales through OEM sales channels mostly, and that's easily the majority of laptop sales. But they are likely being fed Whiskey Lake too.

Can I ask you to tell me if this is a correct summation ? and correct me with what I don't understand. The only 10nm chips shipping are low end laptop chips.

The U parts are Intel's biggest seller by a large margin.
 
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Charlie22911

Senior member
Mar 19, 2005
614
228
116
It's easy to root for the "underdog", and I often do in AMD's case. But make no mistake, those feelings are not reciprocated; they are a huge multinational company concerned with turning a profit.

Intel isn't in trouble though, not even close. Even if they were never able to retake the lead, they are diversified enough that they would continue to exist.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
21,813
11,167
136
Icelake mobile is no worse than Cometlake mobile for volume. They seem to be in about equal number of systems.

There aren't that many Comet Lake systems out there either.

Intel's volume was down 10% in laptop and 11% in desktop in the 3Q mostly because of the 14 nm shortage. Kind of get the feeling looking back that they had no choice to use what they could produce on 10 nm to help alleviate it.

That was one of those "hmm" moments I had reading Charlie's interview. If 10nm were as healthy as Intel claimed, wouldn't IceLake production be able to offset shortages of low-end and/or mobile chips? Basically, anything 4c and below?
 

uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
2,703
6,405
146
Oddly enough, you do have a user, exquisitechar, who is flat out saying "Some of this is inaccurate..." But I don't see you asking him to provide proof that any of this is false? Not to throw exquisitechar under the bus, as I don't think he did anything wrong.

Seems odd that you're so hyped up trying to "prove me wrong" and ask for proof, when I never said anything other than the opinion that the person being interviewed runs a site that is very anti-intel. If you google the site name, you will see many threads on people talking about such. I simply said to take it with a grain of salt. As you should any interview with someone with an obvious bias. Truth or not, I never said it was either way.

But you didn't jump up and discuss the issues of someone saying exactly what you are accusing me of. I find the whole thing odd; especially since I did no such thing.

I also said the same thing in one of the first posts after creating this thread, but also pointed out that they're relatively minor points compared to everything else, such as the fact that COAG has not been scrapped, it's just not used for the HD library.

The other main problem I had with what Charlie's saying was with Cooper Lake, as it should already be sampling. But he clarified on Twitter yesterday without actually being asked about it, saying he'd only heard whispers it's Q3 so he wasn't 100% sure on it. He only made that comment for Cooper. The rest are still as stated.
 

uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
2,703
6,405
146
S|A also claimed 10nm was cancelled. Later when it was found it wasn't I think he gave bunch of excuses such as "10nm is cancelled, but 10nm+ is not" or whatever. I think what really happened is Intel found out who the leaker was and told him wrong info to discredit him.

Wrong.

That reason is because the deprecation involved taking three of the four fabs that were slated to produce 10nm CPUs and moving them to different processes.

Did he jump the gun still? Yes. But 3 of 4 fabs switching over two different process is very indicative of the fact that a process is cancelled or if nothing else, is planning to get mostly skipped.
 

lobz

Platinum Member
Feb 10, 2017
2,057
2,856
136
Icelake mobile is no worse than Cometlake mobile for volume. They seem to be in about equal number of systems.

The Core i3 of Icelake is also the chip they were using on the HP black friday $300 system. Sometimes, you got i5's with the system too.

Dell has bunch of new Inspirons split between ICL and CML. There's a $599 cdn system with 256GB SSD and Core i3 1005G1. That's pretty cheap. Acer has Swift 3 and 5 with 1065G7. Lenovo has Ideapads with Icelake too. Of course, can't forget HP with their simple no-name "HP 14" or "HP 17" systems.

The top end SKU doesn't even matter. It's a 28W SKU that almost no one used in previous generations. The HP Spectre for example uses a "15W" SKU but has two settings, one a quieter 18W, and another, a 28W one. Who needs a 28W SKU then?

Yea, Icelake is limited, and it would be misleading to say they are shipping in volumes they wanted. But its also a lie to claim it only exists in flagship systems and in extremely small volume. Go outside, get some Best Buy or Walmart flyers and peruse through them. You'll see some Icelake systems too.

S|A also claimed 10nm was cancelled. Later when it was found it wasn't I think he gave bunch of excuses such as "10nm is cancelled, but 10nm+ is not" or whatever. I think what really happened is Intel found out who the leaker was and told him wrong info to discredit him.
The number of designs do not represent the number of actual chips shipped.
 

lobz

Platinum Member
Feb 10, 2017
2,057
2,856
136
Intel's volume was down 10% in laptop and 11% in desktop in the 3Q mostly because of the 14 nm shortage. Kind of get the feeling looking back that they had no choice to use what they could produce on 10 nm to help alleviate it.



Even looking at retail, Whiskey Lake appears to be easily the majority of the volume out there, probably because Intel is prioritizing it over Comet because it's a smaller die. Hence why Dell is upset because they want Comet Lake because it's newer.

Corporate uses fleet sales through OEM sales channels mostly, and that's easily the majority of laptop sales. But they are likely being fed Whiskey Lake too.



The U parts are Intel's biggest seller by a large margin.
Your statement is true but not an answer to his question, as U does not mean low-end.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
Ahhh Lobz you must be a wall st dude (such as myself). Thanks for spreading Charlie’s fud. He actually blocked me on Twitter because he refused to admit he gets paid by wall st. to share his crap.

anyway - hope you have better resources than Charlie and anandtech forums. 10nm yields are good. Just sent one of my analysts on a trip out in Asia to confirm that. Also have pretty good look into the consumables folks that supply intel.

but thanks for spreading that garbage lol
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,842
5,457
136
Your statement is true but not an answer to his question, as U does not mean low-end.

Each OEM seems to have gotten a different amount. Can't really tell the %s but it actually seems like an mostly even amount of i3, i5 and i7, maybe slightly more i7. To me, that seems like a bad sign because the System Agent is almost half the chip's size... and I would think any defect there means the Trash Can. I would think if yields were better you would be seeing much more i3 and i5 out there.
 
Reactions: DarthKyrie and lobz

uzzi38

Platinum Member
Oct 16, 2019
2,703
6,405
146
Ahhh Lobz you must be a wall st dude (such as myself). Thanks for spreading Charlie’s fud. He actually blocked me on Twitter because he refused to admit he gets paid by wall st. to share his crap.

anyway - hope you have better resources than Charlie and anandtech forums. 10nm yields are good. Just sent one of my analysts on a trip out in Asia to confirm that. Also have pretty good look into the consumables folks that supply intel.

but thanks for spreading that garbage lol

In case you didn't realise, I'm the one that posted the transcript here in the hopes of some discussion of it, not lobz. Yes there are mistakes in what Charlies said - as I've stated elsewhere in this thread, COAG has not been ditched for example, but yield is not one of those mistakes. To an extent anyway, while it is a major issue, I think Charlie has still overstated things a little bit.

It doesn't take a genius to figure that out when ICL-SP was delayed from Q3 -> Q4 - and most importantly, is being released 5-6 quarters after mobile. Yields are not going well. Even for mobile, it's clear they're not ideal, else CML-U and RKL-U wouldn't exist.
 
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JasonLD

Senior member
Aug 22, 2017
486
447
136
Problem is Intel is burning through their cash hoard buying back stock. And the fab business is extremely capital intensive.

If you have to burn through the cash reserve for R&D fund, I think that would be a bigger problem. I don't think that is how that works. Intel still spends significant % of their revenue on R&D.
 

lobz

Platinum Member
Feb 10, 2017
2,057
2,856
136
Ahhh Lobz you must be a wall st dude (such as myself). Thanks for spreading Charlie’s fud. He actually blocked me on Twitter because he refused to admit he gets paid by wall st. to share his crap.

anyway - hope you have better resources than Charlie and anandtech forums. 10nm yields are good. Just sent one of my analysts on a trip out in Asia to confirm that. Also have pretty good look into the consumables folks that supply intel.

but thanks for spreading that garbage lol
I mean...

what?

At first I was just staring at your comment very-very baffled. On second look, I think I'm just better off letting you have fun with yourself
 

moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
4,994
7,765
136
I personally consider Charlie's reporting/rumor mongering reflecting worst case scenarios for Intel.

The problem with such scenarios is that even if they are true Intel (or any other sane company really) will never ever publicly admit them as such and always try to package it in some way that make it look like they are in full control and their range of product at a given time is a result of deliberate decisions.

And that's alright as long as Wall St. continues to eat it up. I guess with liahos1 we have our very own barometer for that.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
My bad - thought lobz posted. It was 4am and I just got up haha.

point stands though. 10nm yields are good. Just did a quarterly trip to asia. Odms, oems, supply chain. 10nm on track. Cooper lake stuffed in before icelake when intel didn’t have a better handle on yield path. That part is fine now.

7nm much healthier at this stage than most people expect. Even better than what intel expected. I’ll let you all circle jerk each other on 10nm is broken lube - but my checks are solid and don’t really need to be persuaded otherwise.
 

liahos1

Senior member
Aug 28, 2013
573
45
91
I personally consider Charlie's reporting/rumor mongering reflecting worst case scenarios for Intel.

The problem with such scenarios is that even if they are true Intel (or any other sane company really) will never ever publicly admit them as such and always try to package it in some way that make it look like they are in full control and their range of product at a given time is a result of deliberate decisions.

And that's alright as long as Wall St. continues to eat it up. I guess with liahos1 we have our very own barometer for that.

Actually no. I don’t just listen to what the company tells me. I try to get corroboration from other sources. This is called “due diligence” in my line of work. But hey thanka for trying to interpret how I get my job done working at 10bln+ aum firm
 
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