Originally posted by: soccerballtux
A notable comment on slashdot--
http://science.slashdot.org/co...d=1212387&cid=27723727
Basically, similar to the 1918-20 outbreak, we don't have much to worry about until the cooler months.
My opinion-- it's too early to tell. This definitely carries the potential for a pandemic but we'll have to see how effective it is at spreading.
So far it only seems terribly lethal to Mexicans. Of the Americans infected, only one was hospitalized.
88 deaths may pale in comparison to the 30K deaths due to flu each year; the key is in the mortality rate. Wikipedia pegs standard influenza at 0.1% mortality, usually affecting the (very) young and elderly.
This H1N1 is different in that, like the 1918-20 H1N1, its lethality comes from cytokine storm-- immune system runaway, begins attacking your healthy cells. Hence the much higher death rates among the most healthy individuals-- their immune systems are strongest, and therefor the most able to damage their own bodies.
The Mexican death rate is currently 70 (edit sorry, 70, bad maths) times the standard influenza mortality rate by conservative estimates. 7% is very high. Usually death rate is 5% of those hospitalized, not 5% of all infected.
Letters to BBC from Doctors in Mexico city are claiming mortality due to this thing are understated by as much as 10x. There's a lot of doomsdayers on the internet, and they could just be anarchists posing as a Mexican Doctor hoping to drum up fear.
Regardless, this does not appear to be your run of the mill flu.