LOL... you're the handicapper? If anything, Perknose was as when the bet was made, O'Donnell was the favorite. That was until the "I'm a witch" video was released.
I don't think that's correct. Castle was favored against Coons, but I'm almost certain that O'Donnell was always substantially behind in the polls (by double digits, in fact). If Castle had gotten the Republican nomination instead of O'Donnell it's very likely they would have won the seat. Too bad for them for nominating a nutter.