Then you are claiming that Intel can best Zen easily whenever they need to, even if Zen is faster than Skylake.
So it seems like you are basically saying Zen has no chance.
Either AMD can't get the performance up there, or if they do, Intel can easily crank out a faster chip.
Intel can best Zen easily and have already done so unless Zen is an astonishing success and the 40% claim was a gross under representation of the improvement over Excavator.
Zen will be Haswell +/- 10%, IPC-wise.
I had a friend who worked at Intel doing CPU microcode (he worked on Pentium 4, IIRC). He said, even then, that Intel could easily double the performance of their CPUs by doing away with a policy he called "copy exact." He said that they were not allowed to optimize existing microcode at all, they could only add to it.
Apparently this meant there was guaranteed compatibility, but that the microcode was full of workarounds and performance issues aplenty.
This is not surprising from a corporation like Intel, they have a LOT riding on maintaining proper compatibility and they don't really have to worry about optimal performance. I have no clue if this policy still exists, or even if I fully understood what he meant, but it is a good example of the type of thing that can happen in Intel that could never happen in a more vulnerable company. You don't leave a doubling of performance on the table.
If you compare the die sizes of Intel CPUs and their competition, the situation becomes rather clear. Intel is advancing on a cadence as they are exactly so they can give the appearance of progress without becoming too efficient too fast. They do NOT want the holy grail of performance, that would hurt sales immensely. Already, the "fast enough for the average Joe" computers are only being upgraded after they have a failure... many years, or even a decade or more, later.
In addition, Intel knows that they can't get too far ahead of AMD. If they were to make AMD any more irrelevant than they have, they will be facing massive legal battles in several countries - even without AMD initiating anything (since they have agreed to not do so). This is probably yet another disincentive to make genuine attempts at significant progress.
Just imagine the mainstream socket getting a 6 core CPU option without an iGPU from Intel... they won't do that, even though there is no doubt there is a significant enough market to make it profitable.