[techpowerup]Sterne Agee Downgrades NVIDIA

[wahdangun]

Once Company of The Year by Forbes, NVIDIA is now having a hard time convincing 111-year old investment firm Sterne Agee that it is as much of a company to look out for. The firm downgraded NVIDIA from its coveted "Catalyst Driven Idea List," claiming that NVIDIA lacks the kind of innovation looking into the foreseeable future, to remain in that list. Says Sterne Agee:

"We had put NVDA on our Catalyst Driven Idea list on January 3 ahead of anticipated catalysts at CES and Mobile World Congress (MWC). While there were some catalysts at CES with the quad-core Tegra 3 integrating Touch on its Ninja 5th core, CES also saw a Win8 Tablet prototype running an NVDA Tegra. While we believe there could be more catalysts with MWC February 27, we believe NVDA shares are fairly valued here. MWC catalysts could include Tegra 3 handsets with Icera baseband and some 7-10 tablets running Android Ice Cream Sandwich.



Sterne Agee's commentary continues.

Overall PCs Continue to be Weak & New Tablet Ramps are Just Getting Announced - We believe near term PCs are seasonally weaker, and while HDD supply is improving, we believe PC demand continues to be weak. Also for NVDA, Tegra 2 into tablets is ramping down, and while the company could have new Tegra 3 design wins into tablets, we believe the production ramp on any new tablets in the April Q will not be as material.

Discrete GPU Competition -- With AMD ramping 28-nm Radeon HD 7970 which delivers 5-30% better graphics performance than competitor GPUs on the market, paired with integrated APU Llano and INTC's Ivy Bridge-Haswell, we continue to believe the core discrete GPU market could have some structural challenges."


NVDA has been dull, since. This development adds to the pressure on the company to come up with a killer new product portfolio, and increased innovation. The full report can be accessed here.

wow, nvdia really need to get that kepler out A.S.A.P

 

[Red Storm]

Never heard of this list before.

 

[96Firebird]

Who?

 

[DominionSeraph]

wow, nvdia really need to get that kepler out A.S.A.P

And why is that?

 

[BlockheadBrown]

I really don't see much value in what they're saying. Many of those who put out these types of statements are more uninformed than informed.

 

[Quantos]

I search for that list, but all the top results have to do with this piece of news. Can anyone find the list to see who actually deserves to be on it?

 

[railven]

Reading a little of the PDF and my knowledge of investment (which is small) they seem like a company that tracks companies and suggest them for investment to their clients.

I take this Catalyst list more like a "what's hot currently" kind of thing. Their projected estimates for NV go up, not down, which is good.

From their own rating of Neutral - it states they expect the company to go as plans and thus not turn over a huge profit for investors.

I don't think this is a negative for nVidia, more so for people with tons of money looking for the next pony to bet on, these analyst are saying nVidia is going to coast versus make strides.

Least thats what I got from the PDF, feel free to read it.

 

[railven]

They have AMD graded as BUY which means:

[FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold]Definition of Investment Ratings:[/FONT]​

[/FONT][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold]BUY:
[/FONT][/FONT]

We expect this stock to outperform the industry over the next 12 months.

​

​

[FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold]NEUTRAL: ​

​

[/FONT][/FONT]

We expect this stock to perform in line with the industry over the next 12 months.

​

​

[FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold]UNDERPERFORM: ​

​

[/FONT][/FONT]

We expect this stock to underperform the industry over the next 12 months.
[FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold][FONT=TimesNewRoman,Bold]RESTRICTED : [/FONT][/FONT]Restricted list requirements preclude comment.
[/FONT]​

[/FONT]​

​

I guess they are expecting big things from AMD? /shrug

Intel is marked as Neutral too.

Must be some AMD fanboys over there too haha.

​

 

[notty22]

Nvidia is announcing earnings on the 15th. The Stock has recently gone up, so it's hard to recommend it at a buy currently.
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/earning...corp-fourth-quarter-earnings-sneak-peek.html/

Wall St. Revenue Expectations: Analysts are projecting a rise of 7.2% in revenue from the year-earlier quarter to $950.4 million.
Analyst Ratings: Analysts seem relatively indifferent about NVIDIA with 15 of 28 analysts surveyed maintaining a hold rating.
A Look Back: In the third quarter, profit rose more than twofold to $178.3 million (29 cents a share) from $84.9 million (15 cents a share) the year earlier, exceeding analyst expectations. Revenue rose 26.3% to $1.07 billion from $843.9 million.
Key Stats:
The company’s revenue has increased for two consecutive quarters. In the second quarter, the figure rose 25.3%.
Stock Price Performance: From January 11, 2012 to February 9, 2012, the stock price rose $2.11 (14.9%), from $14.19 to $16.30. The stock price saw one of its best stretches over the last year between May 4, 2011 and May 12, 2011, when shares rose for seven straight days, increasing 9.9% (+$1.85) over that span. It saw one of its worst periods between May 31, 2011 and June 13, 2011 when shares fell for 10 straight days, dropping 15.2% (-$3.04) over that span

 

[sontin]

They put AMD on a buy even after AMD announced that they expect a 8-12% revenue decrease for Q1? Makes absolutely sense, really i think...

 

[BallaTheFeared]

AMD stock is up to 7 lol, when bulldozer came out I think it went into the 4's.

Shoot, I knew I should have purchased that stock when it dropped below 5 /facepalm

 

[badb0y]

Never heard of these guys.

 

[busydude]

For every analyst that say sell... I can find one that says buy.

 

[ronnn]

catalyst ideas or whatever. this is less subtle then verdetroll.

 

[Corporate Thug]

1. analyst sentiment is doom and gloom across the board;
2. analyst sentiment doesn't mean jack since they always have an ulterior motive.

 

[Corporate Thug]

For every analyst that say sell... I can find one that says buy.

...for just about any stock.

 

[bryanW1995]

They have AMD graded as BUY which means:



I guess they are expecting big things from AMD? /shrug

Intel is marked as Neutral too.

Must be some AMD fanboys over there too haha.

[/LEFT]

They clearly explained their reasoning. I think it makes sense, AMD looks like they might have a pretty long period of single gpu supremacy in consumer gpus, and with no new product but lots of buzz about upcoming stuff, NV could start losing some commercial sales as well.

@wahdangun: It's ridiculous to say that NV "needs" to push out kepler quickly, however. They're still kicking the **** out of AMD, they're just not kicking quite as hard right now. Get back to us in 6 months if 7970 is still leading the pack, then maybe average buyers will start to take notice.

 

[blackened23]

I'm about 80% sure that none of these analysts give a crap about discrete GPU's, because PC sales are way way down and so are discrete sales (thanks to intel). What analysts / shareholders are looking for is long term viability with mobile products, because that is where the money is right now, period.

 

[kreacher]

Before reading the analysis and going by just the post title I thought they had some news about AMD winning all the next gen console GPU orders.

 

[bryanW1995]

I'm about 80% sure that none of these analysts give a crap about discrete GPU's, because PC sales are way way down and so are discrete sales (thanks to intel). What analysts / shareholders are looking for is long term viability with mobile products, because that is where the money is right now, period.

Exaggerate much? How much money did amd make last year on mobile products? intel? nvidia? I'm not saying that it's not important, but last time I checked, mobile was only one part of the overall equation. To name a few things that analysts and shareholders are actually looking at:

AMD :
1. mobile
2. discrete consumer
3. discrete professional
4. integrated/apus (profit listed under cpu division however)
5. Cash Position
6. Future products

nvidia
1. professional
2. cash
3. discrete
4. tegra
5. other/upcoming projects

intel
1. cpus
2. cpus
3. cpus-consumer
4. cpus-professional
5. chipsets
6. ssds/graphics/other


Even if you count tegra as mobile, it's no more than 30% or so of nvidia's stock evaluation. And with AMD (or, certainly, intel), it's significantly less than that. I probably didn't stress intel's cpu-focus enough, but I think that you get the idea.

 

[ArizonaSteve]

Analysts. They'll announce a buy rating so that they can offload their stock at a higher price, then they'll tell everyone to sell once they've shorted a ton of stock.

 

[Raghu]

Lulz

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2012/02/13/nvidia-fbr-ups-to-buy-on-tactical-call/

 

[NIGELG]

Maybe it's an AMD shill site with stealth viral marketers....:hmm:.

 

[exar333]

I'm about 80% sure that none of these analysts give a crap about discrete GPU's, because PC sales are way way down and so are discrete sales (thanks to intel). What analysts / shareholders are looking for is long term viability with mobile products, because that is where the money is right now, period.

Growth is definitely down, but sales are still good. You are GREATLY exaggerating...