Tesla Cybertruck

Page 117 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,780
3,571
136
Supposedly a $60 Cybertruck is coming out this year, but between the competition, recalls, and political symbolism, who knows how well it will do...
For $60, you're buying two.


Worth noting that Elon said they would sell half a million of these a year. They managed less than a tenth of that in like 15 months.

Something to remember when he is promising advanced humanoid robots and robotaxis that will supposedly be worth trillions to the company.
Not to defend your boy Leon, but did he actually state 500k as a 2025 sales target or goal? I'd been willing to reserve judgment for a bit longer*, but you'd already called CT a flop two weeks ago. By definition, a flop cannot be saved.

* this was before the relatively recent CT hatred due to Elon's DOGE "work". Currently it isn't even about CT anymore, but whether the entire business model is threatened by global demand destruction.
 
Reactions: Kaido

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,808
42,521
136
Not to defend your boy Leon, but did he actually state 500k as a 2025 sales target or goal? I'd been willing to reserve judgment for a bit longer*, but you'd already called CT a flop two weeks ago. By definition, a flop cannot be saved.

* this was before the relatively recent CT hatred due to Elon's DOGE "work". Currently it isn't even about CT anymore, but whether the entire business model is threatened by global demand destruction.

CT is a flop. A giant one. I was reserving judgement about if the entire company is cooked in the US as much as it is abroad (I suspect it is but not certain, we'll see in April).

He said he anticipated the market to be 250k units or even 500k units. No timeline specified. They have basically exhausted demand already so it is f'd.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
32,366
10,472
136
TBF new cars depreciate a shit ton in the first year. Like losing 40% in a year isn't crazy unusual, its exactly why I don't buy brand new cars!
 
Reactions: Indus

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,780
3,571
136
CT is a flop. A giant one. I was reserving judgement about if the entire company is cooked in the US as much as it is abroad (I suspect it is but not certain, we'll see in April).

He said he anticipated the market to be 250k units or even 500k units. No timeline specified. They have basically exhausted demand already so it is f'd.
I don't disagree, but just wanted to clarify even Elon's dumb ass didn't say they're going to sell 500k units this year.

Purely hypothetically, if Tesla offered the single-motor variant for $49k tomorrow (which they can't and won't), could they even sell 120k units in 2025? It's far from clear that they could, given current headwinds. The irrational exuberance of 2020 is long gone.


TBF new cars depreciate a shit ton in the first year. Like losing 40% in a year isn't crazy unusual, its exactly why I don't buy brand new cars!
It varies a lot, but the depreciation of "light trucks" in the U.S. isn't usually so extreme. But yeah, you were always gonna get hosed if you were dumb enough to buy the $100k CT and hold onto it.
Losing 40% in year 1 is actually pretty unusual, and mostly reserved for German luxury sedans.

(I do agree with your general point about eating new car depreciation.)
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,808
42,521
136
I don't disagree, but just wanted to clarify even Elon's dumb ass didn't say they're going to sell 500k units this year.

Here is what he said at the 2023 annual shareholder meeting:

"I'd say a quarter million a year is a reasonable guess and it might be 500,000, I don't know. We'll make as many as people want and can afford. It's going to be hard to make the cost affordable because it is a new car, new manufacturing method, so in the grand scheme of things relative to the production rate of all the other cars we make, it will be small. But still very cool."



Purely hypothetically, if Tesla offered the single-motor variant for $49k tomorrow (which they can't and won't), could they even sell 120k units in 2025? It's far from clear that they could, given current headwinds. The irrational exuberance of 2020 is long gone.

It is a poorly built/designed MAGA hat on wheels made by South African Hitler. I think the brand damage is pretty severe.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
49,807
6,152
136
Purely hypothetically, if Tesla offered the single-motor variant for $49k tomorrow (which they can't and won't), could they even sell 120k units in 2025? It's far from clear that they could, given current headwinds. The irrational exuberance of 2020 is long gone.

tbh, I doubt it. It's vandalism magnet at this point & the panels are literally falling off:

 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
49,807
6,152
136
Here is what he said at the 2023 annual shareholder meeting:

"I'd say a quarter million a year is a reasonable guess and it might be 500,000, I don't know. We'll make as many as people want and can afford. It's going to be hard to make the cost affordable because it is a new car, new manufacturing method, so in the grand scheme of things relative to the production rate of all the other cars we make, it will be small. But still very cool."

47k trucks x $80k minimum = $3.7 billion in sales so far. iirc it takes one billion dollars to bring a car to market these days. Dunno how much that Gigapress cost tho...

I feel like the brand damage to the Cybertruck specifically is permanent at this point. Kids growing up these days probably only see it as a meme car & political symbol. Fun, crazy design & lots of awesome technology. Oh well!
 
Reactions: igor_kavinski

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,808
42,521
136
47k trucks x $80k minimum = $3.7 billion in sales so far. iirc it takes one billion dollars to bring a car to market these days. Dunno how much that Gigapress cost tho...

I feel like the brand damage to the Cybertruck specifically is permanent at this point. Kids growing up these days probably only see it as a meme car & political symbol. Fun, crazy design & lots of awesome technology. Oh well!

Yea a brand can certainly overcome a bad car but the vehicle itself is for sure f'd. Though those companies didn't have Elon at the helm who like 70% of the country either outright hates or distrusts and he won't stay off TV.
 

lxskllr

No Lifer
Nov 30, 2004
58,897
9,236
126
I bought my first pickup in the early 90s. It was an 84 F100. I bought a clapped out camper cap for it for $20 if I remember right. I replaced a bunch of the wood using screws and my Swiss army knife. It was better assembled by an order of magnitude than the $100k shitbox.

We probably have enough morons in this country to keep the CT lines humming, but I doubt we have enough with $100k to blow on them.
 
Reactions: igor_kavinski

manly

Lifer
Jan 25, 2000
12,780
3,571
136
Here is what he said at the 2023 annual shareholder meeting:

"I'd say a quarter million a year is a reasonable guess and it might be 500,000, I don't know. We'll make as many as people want and can afford. It's going to be hard to make the cost affordable because it is a new car, new manufacturing method, so in the grand scheme of things relative to the production rate of all the other cars we make, it will be small. But still very cool."





It is a poorly built/designed MAGA hat on wheels made by South African Hitler. I think the brand damage is pretty severe.
apologies, I replied to your post earlier but mistakenly thought I was addressing @Kaido

Cox Automotive has some U.S. sales figures for the first two months, and they're pretty ugly.


 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,562
13,228
126
www.anyf.ca
Supposedly the glue they use does not do well in the cold, and considering a vehicle is outside, where it's cold, that's kind of a problem.

Makes me think they did not really put this through any of the tests most vehicles go through. Toyota used to have a cold weather testing plant in my city, did some work there briefly when I was in IT as they were one of our customers. They moved it further north as our winters are not as cold anymore though.

Speaking of vandalism, some of vandals are facing 20 years in jail. Hope it was worth it!

 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,808
42,521
136
apologies, I replied to your post earlier but mistakenly thought I was addressing @Kaido

Cox Automotive has some U.S. sales figures for the first two months, and they're pretty ugly.



I wonder how long they can keep from raising the price since the metal it is made of is now tariffed at 25%. Steel body panels from Finland and aluminum very likely from Canada.
 

PowerEngineer

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 2001
3,583
756
136
A Youtuber recreated the fake-wall test with a Cybertruck:


I still think LIDAR is needed:

It turns out that his test results which suggested that the Cybertruck performed better on the "fake wall" test than a Model Y are a bit misleading. The real difference is in the hardware level. In his first video, the older Model Y had hardware level 3 while the Cybertruck had hardware level 4.

He just posted a new "fake wall" test comparing the performance of a Model Y with hardware level 3 to another Model Y with hardware level 4.


Bottom line seems to be that hardware level 4 is a big improvement over hardware level 3 and something you want to pay attention to when considering the purchase of a used Tesla - especially if you intend to use full self-driving.

Model Y production moved from hardware level 3 to hardware level 4 somewhat haphazardly during 2024. We unwittingly lucked out as the used 2024 Model Y we bought was equipped with hardware level 4, and even had a full self-driving license.

Even so, I do agree with you that some sort of lidar/radar sensor is likely needed for get to unsupervised full self-driving.
 
Reactions: Kaido

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
49,807
6,152
136
apologies, I replied to your post earlier but mistakenly thought I was addressing @Kaido

Cox Automotive has some U.S. sales figures for the first two months, and they're pretty ugly.



Objectively, it IS a flop:

1. 47k sales in 1.5 years
2. Endless recalls
3. Political reputation tarnishing

Plus:

1. The release was not what anyone expected. It took awhile for Stockholm syndrome to set in before I grew to like it LOL
2. The release design was tweaked & the specs were not as marketed. Still no "budget" version & the battery backpack still hasn't shipped (with no ETA)

Maybe VW will ship a 500-mile VW Bus unicorn
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
49,807
6,152
136
Rivian and Ford could only dream of truck sales numbers like the CT is having.

Looks like they might match CT sales this year:


I think the R2 & R3 will sell like gangbusters!
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
50,808
42,521
136
Objectively, it IS a flop:

1. 47k sales in 1.5 years
2. Endless recalls
3. Political reputation tarnishing

Plus:

1. The release was not what anyone expected. It took awhile for Stockholm syndrome to set in before I grew to like it LOL
2. The release design was tweaked & the specs were not as marketed. Still no "budget" version & the battery backpack still hasn't shipped (with no ETA)

Maybe VW will ship a 500-mile VW Bus unicorn

Yea being the biggest turd in the bowl doesn't win any prizes. The market for 80K dollar EV trucks is just inherently limited.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
49,807
6,152
136
The market for 80K dollar EV trucks is just inherently limited.

It's too bad:

1. I liked the idea of not having paint to worry about
2. I like oddball cars (had a Beetle, Soul, etc.)
3. $39k was mythical but would have been glorious

I think there's a good market for $80k ICE trucks that have real range & can tow. If the "cheap" CT actually existed & it didn't become a political icon, I think it would still been a niche vehicle, but would have fared WAY better.

Oh well. The idea will live on as a Hot Wheels on my desk lol.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,562
13,228
126
www.anyf.ca
The stainless was the biggest selling point for me. Regular cars rust so fast, you pay so much money for them and within 20 years it's basically scrap. If they had built this right it could last a long time. Although I think reality is it's very hard to protect from all the salt they put on the road, so they need to just build vehicles that are serviceable. Even with stainless body and such there's still lot of metal components that can rust but if they made all that stuff easy to service it's not that bad, like it should be possible to easily replace entire body panels, and even the frame. My truck is a 2009, it's not THAT old, but yet it's on it's last legs because of rust. I would be pissed if I had paid full price for that and I was already having to replace it. Although in 2009 the trucks were not as crazy expensive as now, but still.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
49,807
6,152
136
The stainless was the biggest selling point for me. Regular cars rust so fast, you pay so much money for them and within 20 years it's basically scrap. If they had built this right it could last a long time. Although I think reality is it's very hard to protect from all the salt they put on the road, so they need to just build vehicles that are serviceable. Even with stainless body and such there's still lot of metal components that can rust but if they made all that stuff easy to service it's not that bad, like it should be possible to easily replace entire body panels, and even the frame. My truck is a 2009, it's not THAT old, but yet it's on it's last legs because of rust. I would be pissed if I had paid full price for that and I was already having to replace it. Although in 2009 the trucks were not as crazy expensive as now, but still.

The Delorean is still holding up, but Cybertrucks are already starting to rust. Plus the panels always look dirty & the stainless seems to be different shades between panels.

They should have put that fingerprint-resistant clear-coat on it like they do on fridges lol.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
69,562
13,228
126
www.anyf.ca
The Delorean is still holding up, but Cybertrucks are already starting to rust. Plus the panels always look dirty & the stainless seems to be different shades between panels.

They should have put that fingerprint-resistant clear-coat on it like they do on fridges lol.

Yeah it's odd that the CT is rusting so quickly, it must be something specific to the alloy that they use maybe.
 

lxskllr

No Lifer
Nov 30, 2004
58,897
9,236
126
Fords don't rust, and they use lightweight, economical aluminum. Tesla got it ass backward, cause of course they did. Frame should've been stainless, and the body aluminum.
 
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |