Tesla Model III preorders have started

[DAGTA]

And Agile and other buzzwords in software development is similar to, and benefits from the concepts of Kaizen and lean manufacturing which were heavily developed by Japanese manufacturers, like Toyota and Honda and enabled their growth thanks to their advantages in efficiency, quality and cost.

Agreed.

And the Nummi plant was a collaboration between Toyota and GM in the 1980s. That's the plant that Tesla bought years ago. They're only using a fraction of it for the Model S and Model X. When the plant was running in the past, it was capable of 500,000 cars per year. Tesla already has the facilities and the know how to scale at least that high.

Musk has a background in physics, software development, and financial transactions. He's versed in Agile development on the software side and has bought those practices to manufacturing.

 

[senseamp]

Back in the real world:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0405-tesla-delivery-20160405-story.html

The automaker announced that it delivered 14,820 luxury vehicles in the first quarter of 2016, falling short of the expected 16,000 deliveries. The tally includes 12,420 Model S sedans and 2,400 Model X SUVs.
The stock price for Tesla Motors dropped about 3% in after-hours trading, after several days of gains tied to the frenzy of the Model 3 release.

Tesla is currently having trouble making 60000 cars per year. They should seriously consider outsourcing Model 3 manufacturing to Magna Steyr and focusing more on key technologies than running a car factory.

 

[monkeydelmagico]

Back in the real world:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-0405-tesla-delivery-20160405-story.html

Tesla is currently having trouble making 60000 cars per year. They should seriously consider outsourcing Model 3 manufacturing to Magna Steyr and focusing more on key technologies than running a car factory.

Give that a big raspberry. :thumbsdown: Most of development and production is right here in the US of A. Don't give it to some Fatherland conglomerate just yet.

This is Henry Ford type stuff and even though Musk is kinda douchy I want to support the effort. The Model III is affordable enough that a common person like me might be able to do that. The claims that it's more american in both substance and production than a F-150 makes me happy.

 

[Subyman]

Musk shouldn't be too concerned with stock fluctuations when trying to get this company greased. If he worried about that then half his innovations would have been canned.

 

[michal1980]

Musk shouldn't be too concerned with stock fluctuations when trying to get this company greased. If he worried about that then half his innovations would have been canned.

no, but he needs the price high if he is going to issue more stock. Tesla is spending tons of money, with very little money coming in.

 

[gorcorps]

no, but he needs the price high if he is going to issue more stock. Tesla is spending tons of money, with very little money coming in.

But the reason they don't have more coming in is solely because of inability to produce at the rate of demand. I would be more worried if the demand wasn't there.

Amazon wasn't profitable for the first 6 years, which is close to the same time frame it took Tesla to first report profitability. Not everything can be an immediate success, especially with something as big as auto manufacturing.

 

[Brovane]

no, but he needs the price high if he is going to issue more stock. Tesla is spending tons of money, with very little money coming in.

Tesla did bring in about $4 Billion in revenue last year. They have money rolling in just a lot rolls back-out to build the cars, capital investments and R&D.

Tesla has been making investments already in the Freemont Factory to ramp-up vehicle production in addition to the Giga-factory. With the large amount of orders and the need to ramp-up production more quickly than thought I can see Tesla raising more money. However Tesla might look for ways to raise this money with selling shares.

 

[TechBoyJK]

Tesla is currently having trouble making 60000 cars per year. They should seriously consider outsourcing Model 3 manufacturing to Magna Steyr and focusing more on key technologies than running a car factory.

While the numbers are in the real world, the idea of them outsourcing is absolutely in fantasy land.

They're already pushing on expanding. It's just a matter of time. Nothing to do with anything that would be helped by outsourcing.

 

[TechBoyJK]

no, but he needs the price high if he is going to issue more stock. Tesla is spending tons of money, with very little money coming in.

Their burn rate and cash flow is all part of a larger strategy. You might be right if they were worried about daily stock prices, but they're not. They're thinking way farther down the line.

 

[natto fire]

There are volt owners with 300k miles on their cars with little to no battery degradation. the temperature control and charge/discharge rates seem to be the biggest factors.

My cousin got almost as many miles on his Prius' Ni-MH pack, with basically no thermal management. Li-Ion cells are a bit more temperamental, but GM and Tesla were proactive in designing their packs with thermal management. Wear leveling electronics, and cell overhead help insure packs should last quite a while. I am confident in that.

Luckily, there are real engineers working on these problems, and not just AT armchair google warriors.

 

[core2slow]

LoL at the idea of outsourcing their manufacturing. Half of the people who support Tesla are those who like to keep the technology and manufacturing here in the US. As for their stocks, we know that the majority of their expenditures are into technology, R&D, factories and improving their economies of scale so it's not like they're blowing on drugs and expensive corporate retreats.

 

[senseamp]

While the numbers are in the real world, the idea of them outsourcing is absolutely in fantasy land.

They're already pushing on expanding. It's just a matter of time. Nothing to do with anything that would be helped by outsourcing.

I think even within the US, manufacturing in the most expensive area in the country is not a good idea. You have to pay a lot more for your workers to have a worse quality of life. It's like if Apple opened an iPhone factory in Cupertino.

 

[K1052]

I think even within the US, manufacturing in the most expensive area in the country is not a good idea. You have to pay a lot more for your workers to have a worse quality of life. It's like if Apple opened an iPhone factory in Cupertino.

They can expand manufacturing capacity to other places when they figure out how to scale, which it sounds like is in progress. Better to just be where the talent is for now.

 

[Brovane]

I think even within the US, manufacturing in the most expensive area in the country is not a good idea. You have to pay a lot more for your workers to have a worse quality of life. It's like if Apple opened an iPhone factory in Cupertino.

Tesla didn't have a lot of choice in location of the factory. The factory was already there and they were able to purchase it at pennies on the dollar with all the equipment inside. They had a choice on where to locate the giga-factory and it was in a much lower cost area of the country.

 

[KIAman]

I pre-ordered through the website, I know for a fact I'm not within the 200k requirement for the federal credit. I can use the time to determine if a ~$38k is worth it. I'm really looking forward to actual production test and real world specs. If they are not as advertised, I might cancel, dunno.

 

[sontakke]

how do you determine your reservation number and then how do you know if it is within 200K of all the vehicles sold by Tesla?

 

[WackyDan]

how do you determine your reservation number and then how do you know if it is within 200K of all the vehicles sold by Tesla?

You don't. When I went in a looked at my # it is coded in a way that you can't tell.

There were 115k reservations made prior to the live unveiling event. It doesn't go into production until late 2017. Tesla has already made 100,000 Model S cars. They are on target to meet 55,000 cars a year production in 2016. So if you made your reservation like me during the event, you likely will not get the $7500 incentive.

So... Very few Model 3 orders will potentially be qualified for the federal rebate.

What we can hope for is that other's like GM, Nissan, etc lobby the gov't to extend that rebate to 300,000 cars or some other formula. GM is probably the only other manufacturer that is closest to that original 200k number or will be by late 2017 and you can bet that GM and Tesla will be making campaign contributions galore to get that incentive extended in some manner.

 

[DAGTA]

The tax credit does not immediately stop at the 200,000th car. It gradually phases out

If Tesla delivers the 199,999th car on the last day of a quarter, then the 200,000th on the first day of a quarter, the $7500 credit will be applied for all cars delivered in that quarter and the next quarter. After that, the credit is reduced to $3750 for the next two quarters. After that, the credit is reduced to $1875 for the next two quarters.

So, there is a good chance that many people that reserved will get some form of tax credit. Depending on how fast Tesla ramps production, possibly all of the reservations put in right now and maybe some more.

 

[Rebel44]

The tax credit does not immediately stop at the 200,000th car. It gradually phases out

If Tesla delivers the 199,999th car on the last day of a quarter, then the 200,000th on the first day of a quarter, the $7500 credit will be applied for all cars delivered in that quarter and the next quarter. After that, the credit is reduced to $3750 for the next two quarters. After that, the credit is reduced to $1875 for the next two quarters.

So, there is a good chance that many people that reserved will get some form of tax credit. Depending on how fast Tesla ramps production, possibly all of the reservations put in right now and maybe some more.

And Tesla pre-order numbers are worldwide - not just USA.

 

[Hugo Drax]

The tax credit does not immediately stop at the 200,000th car. It gradually phases out

If Tesla delivers the 199,999th car on the last day of a quarter, then the 200,000th on the first day of a quarter, the $7500 credit will be applied for all cars delivered in that quarter and the next quarter. After that, the credit is reduced to $3750 for the next two quarters. After that, the credit is reduced to $1875 for the next two quarters.

So, there is a good chance that many people that reserved will get some form of tax credit. Depending on how fast Tesla ramps production, possibly all of the reservations put in right now and maybe some more.

Sounds like Welfare.

 

[NutBucket]

Yep, if the car is that good you shouldn't need an incentive. Besides, I've always argued if you can afford a Model S you don't need (or care) about the incentive anyway.

 

[Brovane]

Sounds like Welfare.

That is the way that Congress wrote the law around the EV tax credit.

 

[shabby]

Sounds like Welfare.

Plenty of corporate welfare out there, why not public welfare?

 

[zerocool84]

Yep, if the car is that good you shouldn't need an incentive. Besides, I've always argued if you can afford a Model S you don't need (or care) about the incentive anyway.

Which is why they changed the way you get the incentives now. If the more you make the less of an incentive you get now.

 

[Brovane]

Which is why they changed the way you get the incentives now. If the more you make the less of an incentive you get now.

The US Federal EV incentive remains un-changed.