Tesla Model Y

[KentState]

Just a little update on the Y after 8 month of ownership. While the estimated range has jumped from 282 to 303 since purchased, I'm now at 260 miles on a full charge. It's getting very close to the point where it's not going to be usable on some road trips where the chargers around more than 180 miles apart. Also means when stopping, we are spending up to an hour charging just to have enough range.

 

[heymrdj]

Just a little update on the Y after 8 month of ownership. While the estimated range has jumped from 282 to 303 since purchased, I'm now at 260 miles on a full charge. It's getting very close to the point where it's not going to be usable on some road trips where the chargers around more than 180 miles apart. Also means when stopping, we are spending up to an hour charging just to have enough range.

Any idea why? I thought Tesla batteries were supposed to take years to deteriorate that much. Or is it just a temporary cold weather thing?

 

[Commodus]

Just a little update on the Y after 8 month of ownership. While the estimated range has jumped from 282 to 303 since purchased, I'm now at 260 miles on a full charge. It's getting very close to the point where it's not going to be usable on some road trips where the chargers around more than 180 miles apart. Also means when stopping, we are spending up to an hour charging just to have enough range.

Just gradual battery degradation, or something else? I can imagine temperatures don't help if you're in a northern part of the US.

 

[KentState]

I'm in the south and the car lives in the garage. However, the degradation started in the summer and it's still warm enough that it shouldn't matter. Manufacturers love to tout range, but it's always based off a new car in ideal conditions. The advertised number should really be based off year 1-5 of average usage or something more realistic. A 10-15% drop shortly after purchase can be a huge impact on the practicality of the car.

 

[rstrohkirch]

I feel range should be rated like MPG in that it's tested by an independent agency. Tesla shouldn't be allowed to advertise range that they come up with.

 

[bigi]

Just a little update on the Y after 8 month of ownership. While the estimated range has jumped from 282 to 303 since purchased, I'm now at 260 miles on a full charge. It's getting very close to the point where it's not going to be usable on some road trips where the chargers around more than 180 miles apart. Also means when stopping, we are spending up to an hour charging just to have enough range.

Have you actually verified your stated full charge or is it reading only?
2 superchargers 180 miles apart - how often do you need this per year?
Also, what was the initial Model Y range when you purchased it?

Curious.

What is the % degradation since you purchased the car that now you state this hardship happens?

What was your range when Y was new? How were you not to deal with this situation before?

 

[Dulanic]

I feel range should be rated like MPG in that it's tested by an independent agency. Tesla shouldn't be allowed to advertise range that they come up with.

I'm pretty sure it's set by the EPA. So it's as inaccurate as gas ratings.

 

[rstrohkirch]

I'm pretty sure it's set by the EPA. So it's as inaccurate as gas ratings.

I assumed it wasn't because they seem to be able to increase their range ratings with software changes at their will. Which wouldn't be allowed without a retest or at least logically thinking. After you said this I looked a bit harder and it seems they do have EPA range estimates. Tesla just does a combination of range ratings on the their site. Some ratings are EPA estimates, which they say so underneath and some are not. Like the Model 3 range estimates for example.

I also found this article rather informing: https://www.caranddriver.com/featur...-factor-tesla-uses-for-big-epa-range-numbers/

 

[Dulanic]

Some of the range increases have been efficiency improvements though the software. I recall one being a change in the epa estimate. The most recent 3 improvement for 2021 was a battery tech improvement so it wasn't for prior years.

 

[ponyo]

Yesterday, Tesla opened the Model Y ordering in China. Tesla is going to start production and delivery of the Model Y in Shanghai later this month. Tesla received over 100,000 orders for Chinese made Model Y yesterday in a single day. Tesla updated the Model Y interior design slightly for the Chinese model and the Dual motor starts at $52k and Performance model at $56,600. Prices in China includes sales tax so it's slightly cheaper than what we pay in the US, especially the Performance Model Y.

 

[Commodus]

Yesterday, Tesla opened the Model Y ordering in China. Tesla is going to start production and delivery of the Model Y in Shanghai later this month. Tesla received over 100,000 orders for Chinese made Model Y yesterday in a single day. Tesla updated the Model Y interior design slightly for the Chinese model and the Dual motor starts at $52k and Performance model at $56,600. Prices in China includes sales tax so it's slightly cheaper than what we pay in the US, especially the Performance Model Y.

Wow. I know Tesla was hyping up Model Y production in China when it announced that it produced 500,000 EVs in 2020, but that would represent quite the surge in orders even if those 100K units were the only ones sold in China this year. Maybe the idea of a million sales in 2021 isn't completely far-fetched.

 

[KentState]

India also is opening up sales of Tesla cars which is another huge market.

 

[ponyo]

Wow. I know Tesla was hyping up Model Y production in China when it announced that it produced 500,000 EVs in 2020, but that would represent quite the surge in orders even if those 100K units were the only ones sold in China this year. Maybe the idea of a million sales in 2021 isn't completely far-fetched.

1 million sales in 2021 is probably unrealistic even though that might be secret internal goal of Elon. Tesla said their goal is to grow 40-50% a year for the next 10 years.

So 500k in 2020.
750k in 2021.
1.125 million in 2022.
1.688 million in 2023.
2.531 million in 2024.
3.797 million in 2025.
5.695 million in 2026.
8.543 million in 2027.
12.814 million in 2028.
19.222 million in 2029.
28.833 million in 2030.

This is if we take 50% annual compounded growth rate for the next 10 years. Elon personal goal is 20 million cars produced and sold a year by 2030. That's Elon's stated goal what he would like to see Tesla achieve in 2030. Thing about compounding and exponential growth is that numbers start to get increasingly large and silly as you keep compounding. But the beauty of the S curve is that Tesla will soon enter the crazy part of the S curve growth phase. These Gigafactories Tesla is building in Berlin and Austin are designed to produce over 2 million cars annually at each factory. Shanghai factory will expand to build 2 million annual cars as well. Tesla will build more Gigafactories in China in the future. People still underestimate Elon Musk and Tesla ambition so much. They have no clue about the big thinking and ideas that's driving Tesla forward. But Tesla is laying the groundwork. And Tesla Battery Day showed you the path they will take to achieve their goals. Whether they achieve it or not, it's awesome goal to have and even if they miss it by few years, it will still be awesome. Everything has to go right if they want to achieve it and things normally never go 100% smooth. But I have faith they will get close if not surpass it. At least Elon and Tesla will bust their butt and try their very best. That's all I can ask for. And why I believe in Elon and Tesla so much and want them to succeed.

 

[ultimatebob]

Does anybody want to place bets on how many cars Tesla will REALLY sell in 2030?

 

[ponyo]

Does anybody want to place bets on how many cars Tesla will REALLY sell in 2030?

You want my guess? I think Tesla will sell about 10 million cars in 2030. I hope I'm wrong and Tesla sells 20 million cars but I don't that will happen in 2030. But I firmly believe Tesla will sell 20 million cars a year before 2040.

 

[ultimatebob]

You want my guess? I think Tesla will sell about 10 million cars in 2030. I hope I'm wrong and Tesla sells 20 million cars but I don't that will happen in 2030. But I firmly believe Tesla will sell 20 million cars a year before 2040.

Actually, my best case scenario has them selling about 10 million cars a year in 2030 as well. That would put them at the same level as Toyota and VW.

That's assuming that they get their QC issues fixed, and they lower battery costs to the point where they'll release a mainstream vehicle that's cost competitive to something like a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.

They can't keep focusing on high-end vehicles and expect sales numbers even close to that.

 

[Kaido]

Does anybody want to place bets on how many cars Tesla will REALLY sell in 2030?

Considering worldwide demand is around 60 million annually right now & Toyota is leading with 8 million cars sold...maaaaaaaaaaaaybe lol. I think a few things are going to happen:

1. Competition is going to heat up over the next few years.

2. Other manufacturers are going to offer better stuff. The Model 3 doesn't even have a heated steering wheel, which is flat-out ridiculous for a $40,000 car. I think we'll see a big focus on luxury interiors to differentiate them from the spartan Tesla interiors. I've driven nearly every Tesla model (still looking for a Roaster 1.0 to test drive!) & while they're nice, they're super pared down compared to other cars. I'm mean, I'm a human being, and I like creature comforts. Plus, I'm a dude, and I like cool, unnecessary stuff lol - I mean, just check out the Porsche Taycan electric's interior vs. the Model 3's ultra-minimalist interior:





3. I think LIDAR is going to make a big splash. GM's Super Cruise will be on over 22 vehicles by 2023, which among other things uses LIDAR-mapped road systems, so whether it's used to power the service or used in the car, it's out there now:

GM's Super Cruise Self-Driving Tech Will Be on 22 Vehicles by 2023

The impressive hands-free system is currently only available in the Cadillac lineup.

www.caranddriver.com

The Sierra truck is getting it soon:

GMC Confirms Its First Truck Taste Of Autopilot-Rivaling Super Cruise

GM promised more cars across its nameplates with Super Cruise, and now we're seeing just how that roll out will happen, with GMC the latest…

www.slashgear.com

I really like how the steering wheel lights up green to let you visually KNOW you're in self-driving mode:



4. Tesla has a tremendous lead in self-driving cars. There are rumors Apple has something up their sleeve. Waymo...who knows. Honestly, I really like the current semi-automated but reliable systems quite a bit. I finally talked my mom into leasing this year, as she doesn't drive a ton of miles, and she got a Rogue that has some legitimately awesome self-driving stuff. I mean, I know Tesla will eventually beat it out, especially with city driving, but reliable adaptive cruise with lane-centering is pretty close to self-driving in practice! Plus the 360-degree camera system is DOPE! I wish Tesla had it (well, I wish Tesla had a HUD too, one can dream!). Ford doesn't have squat on their upcoming Mach-E SUV as far as anything serious self-driving related, given the capabilities. So there's going to be a few years of catch-up here.

My point here is the cost, however. Musk said he's confident they can deliver a $25k car in the next few years. If they can bundle in self-driving with a 300-mile battery for $25k, then yeah, they'll take over the world, because that would be like the new Civic or Corrolla - everyone on the planet would buy one. I'd imagine the current COVID-delivery economic will still be in place, so if they can get the robo-taxi thing going & you can rent out your car to Uber, Walmart, etc. for food & "stuff" deliveries, that would be pretty awesome! Pipe dream right now, but maybe! Haha.

 

[Kaido]

Actually, my best case scenario has them selling about 10 million cars a year in 2030 as well. That would put them at the same level as Toyota and VW.

That's assuming that they get their QC issues fixed, and they lower battery costs to the point where they'll release a mainstream vehicle that's cost competitive to something like a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.

They can't keep focusing on high-end vehicles and expect sales numbers even close to that.

I dunno, there's a really weird market in the high-end car arena. The new Hummer is like $112k & sold out in 10 minutes:

All-electric 2022 GMC Hummer sells out in 10 minutes despite $112K price

The all-electric pickup sold out despite its price tag that tops $100,000, just as the automaker is preparing to start winter testing of it.

www.freep.com

I'd be curious to see how many reservations the upcoming Tesla Model S Plaid has too. Looks pretty good too:

Tesla Model S "Refresh" spotted with Plaid-style widebody and new wheels near HQ

A Tesla Model S “Refresh” with widebody, an updated rear diffuser, and new wheels were spotted near the company’s Silicon Valley-based headquarters on New Year’s Day. Photos of a blue Model S with chrome-deleted trim and a visibly-wider stance could provide further validation that Tesla’s...

www.teslarati.com

Plus, the software is getting better every day. The U-turns look pretty good:

Tesla FSD Beta performs flawless U-turn in real-world inner-city test

The latest iteration of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving beta performed an impressive feat during a real-world inner-city test recently. While navigating the streets of Long Beach, a Tesla Model 3 with FSD beta 8 and software version 2020.48.12.15 flawlessly performed a U-turn maneuver without...

www.teslarati.com

It just did a trip from SF to LA without human intervention: (ish)

Tesla FSD Beta takes driver from SF to LA with no human intervention

A Tesla Model 3 with limited Full Self-Driving beta successfully traveled from San Francisco past the Los Angeles border without requiring any interventions–almost. The trip was not perfect, but the drive itself was impressive as it highlighted the potential of Elon Musk and Tesla’s...

www.teslarati.com

Although you mentioned QC issues...I'm on several FB groups & even the Model Y's are still having a lot of issues that require them to go back to the shop before accepting delivery. People call it "Delivery 2.0" because you have to waste your time doing it twice lol. Right now they're in churn mode & are just trying to get them out the door, so buyer beware, but hopefully things will settle down & straightened out this year. Such a Silicon Valley move...ship first, patch later lol.

 

[Kaido]

You want my guess? I think Tesla will sell about 10 million cars in 2030. I hope I'm wrong and Tesla sells 20 million cars but I don't that will happen in 2030. But I firmly believe Tesla will sell 20 million cars a year before 2040.

I think the truck is really going to be a big seller. Supposedly the first batch starts shipping later this year, which would be awesome!

 

[ponyo]

Actually, my best case scenario has them selling about 10 million cars a year in 2030 as well. That would put them at the same level as Toyota and VW.

That's assuming that they get their QC issues fixed, and they lower battery costs to the point where they'll release a mainstream vehicle that's cost competitive to something like a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla.

They can't keep focusing on high-end vehicles and expect sales numbers even close to that.

I think they will do 10 to 14 million cars in 2030. I'm using 10 million because I like to be conservative with my calculations and use the low end of expectation to give myself margin of safety. That way I keep my expectations low and everything above that is gravy.

Have you calculated how much money Tesla will make if they sell 10 million vehicles a year? And add in another 50% for energy since Elon thinks Tesla Energy will be just as big or possibly bigger than Tesla auto? Can you do the math and tell me if you still think Tesla stock is overvalued if Tesla sells 10 million? I'm curious to see if you even know how to do financial model. You sure do love to call things overvalued. So I want to see your math. So humor me and show me your calculations.

 

[ponyo]

Global auto market is expected to be about 100 million in 2030. It was about 77 million in 2019. 2020 is messed up because of Covid so I wouldn't even count this year. But given normal growth, idea of 100 million new cars being sold in 2030 sounds about right to me. If Tesla can capture 20% of that market, that's 20 million cars. If they capture 10%, that's 10 million cars. My guess is somewhere between 10-14% so 10 to 14 million cars by Tesla in 2030. 20 million cars a year before 2040.

 

[Kaido]

Global auto market is expected to be about 100 million in 2030. It was about 77 million in 2019. 2020 is messed up because of Covid so I wouldn't even count this year. But given normal growth, idea of 100 million new cars being sold in 2030 sounds about right to me. If Tesla can capture 20% of that market, that's 20 million cars. If they capture 10%, that's 10 million cars. My guess is somewhere between 10-14% so 10 to 14 million cars by Tesla in 2030. 20 million cars a year before 2040.

Imagine if they could really get the robo-taxi thing going. Ferrying people, food, and "stuff" deliveries around. I have friends who work for UPS, Amazon last-mile, etc. and all of them were constantly overwhelmed during the first stimulus, Black Friday week, and the Christmas holidays. They were so desperate that they were hiring extra runners for UPS trucks at $21 an hour in my area. Having a fleet of robo-taxies that companies like Amazon & Walmart didn't have to manage would be a huge boon for them. I remember Walmart was experimenting with same-day deliveries by having employees drop stuff off on their way home for extra pay, so the need is there, Tesla just needs to build it!

 

[bigi]

Not sure how to say it so here it goes. There is no competition because they don't have batteries. Plain and simple. Tesla has been getting ready to be a leader because amongst many things they took care of batteries. Tesla took care of this at many levels.

Now, Tesla did 500K cars during covid. They know what they want to scale up going forward.

All things aside, cars need to be made in great numbers. Every other wanna be competitor does not have enough of battery capacity to compete. Most don't make their own batteries. Those that do, will not be able to compete in terms of numbers of batteries needed.

And there is the Supercharging network, Full Self Driving and software.

I do get this that some folks prefer 120K Tycan because it has buttons and such. No problemo.

Nobody will compete with Tesla for a long time because they don't have batteries.

 

[Commodus]

Not sure how to say it so here it goes. There is no competition because they don't have batteries. Plain and simple. Tesla has been getting ready to be a leader because amongst many things they took care of batteries. Tesla took care of this at many levels.

Now, Tesla did 500K cars during covid. They know what they want to scale up going forward.

All things aside, cars need to be made in great numbers. Every other wanna be competitor does not have enough of battery capacity to compete. Most don't make their own batteries. Those that do, will not be able to compete in terms of numbers of batteries needed.

And there is the Supercharging network, Full Self Driving and software.

I do get this that some folks prefer 120K Tycan because it has buttons and such. No problemo.

Nobody will compete with Tesla for a long time because they don't have batteries.

Some of the competition is improving, like GM, but I will agree that batteries play a huge role. Until every EV can achieve gas-like range, the company with the longest-ranged batteries has a huge advantage.

I was reminded of that when looking at the Model 3 out of curiosity, and how even the Standard Range Plus model has a range of 263 miles. That's huge — it means you can drive between many cities without scrambling to find a charger the moment you're there (or at most, charge once). And while there are rivals that get decent range, they're frequently not close enough to count.

I will say Tesla needs to step up its game in some areas. You can rag on the range of the Taycan or Mustang Mach-E all you want, but it is clear that established car brands have better initial build quality and overall polish. If I were Elon, my next big push would be to improve build quality and offer a stronger support network.

 

[ultimatebob]

I think they will do 10 to 14 million cars in 2030. I'm using 10 million because I like to be conservative with my calculations and use the low end of expectation to give myself margin of safety. That way I keep my expectations low and everything above that is gravy.

Have you calculated how much money Tesla will make if they sell 10 million vehicles a year? And add in another 50% for energy since Elon thinks Tesla Energy will be just as big or possibly bigger than Tesla auto? Can you do the math and tell me if you still think Tesla stock is overvalued if Tesla sells 10 million? I'm curious to see if you even know how to do financial model. You sure do love to call things overvalued. So I want to see your math. So humor me and show me your calculations.

Toyota already makes about 10 million vehicles a year, and their market cap is around 250 billion dollars. Tesla is valued around 700 billion dollars NOW, and currently ships less than a tenth of Toyota's volume. Even projecting ideal growth 10 years out, it's still hard to justify that value.