Tesla Model Y

[Kaido]

To actually have the Model Y shipping in the summer next year they would need to have test mules out no later than the end of this year. If you don't see multiple articles in the next few months of pre production Model Y's caught out in the wild...it's not going to happen.

They've been seen since May FYI:

Tesla Model Y prototype spotted in the wild for the first time

A few months after launching the Tesla Model Y, a prototype of the new electric crossover has now been spotted...

electrek.co

They pop up on a regular basis in the wild:

Black Tesla Model Y spotted in the wild near Tesla HQ

The Tesla Model Y is scheduled for release in about a year from now, and we just got a glimpse...

electrek.co

 

[KentState]

You mean if Tesla will care? I doubt it. You could probably tell them exactly what you’re doing, and I think they’d be receptive as it makes sense to try the Model 3 as a corollary experience to the Model Y.

Forgot about this thread, but as an update, Tesla reached out on their own and asked if I wanted a test drive of either a 3 or X. I guess they want to keep the enthusiasm up for folks with pre-orders. Going this weekend to try a 3 since it's the closest in features to see if I like it. Good to see that they are being proactive.

 

[Kaido]

Since when does Tesla care about quality control?

Yeaaaaahhhh...everyone in the corporate world is schedule-driven due to finances & marketing, so the first batch of stuff to come out almost always is delivered with sub-par quality because they're rushing to meet a deadline. Learned that the hard way with my first-year Jeep Renegade, as well as multiple computer products before that! The takeaway is simple to wait a full model year before making an investment into any new vehicle. Although Tesla does have a pretty good continuous improvement program - the latest Model 3's seem to have all of the previous bugs fixed as far as things like panel gaps & whatnot goes, so I'll be keeping an eye on how things progress. Definitely interested in a Model Y!

 

[Kaido]

Elon Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving in early access this year, without supervision next year

Elon Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving in early access this year, without supervision next year

Elon Musk has clarified Tesla’s timeline to achieve “Full Self-Driving,” which he thinks could be in the early access program,...

electrek.co

 

[ultimatebob]

Musk said on Q3 '19 conference call today that Model Y is ahead of schedule and we should see volume production start in summer of 2020. I know you're not going to believe him because of Elon time but my guess is you're going to be very wrong with your May 2022 prediction.

OK, then. If Elon Musk is saying that they'll be "available" in Summer of 2020, I'll change my estimate for volume shipments to mid 2021. Because, well... Elon Hype Time to Earth Time conversion rule still applies.

Someone smarter than me should trademark the phrase "Production Hell 2.0" before Elon does

 

[Kaido]

OK, then. If Elon Musk is saying that they'll be "available" in Summer of 2020, I'll change my estimate for volume shipments to mid 2021. Because, well... Elon Hype Time to Earth Time conversion rule still applies.

Someone smarter than me should trademark the phrase "Production Hell 2.0" before Elon does

You're better off not buying the first ones out the door either, hahaha! Although I'd imagine the ramp-up for the Model Y will be easier because:

1. They've figured out the scaling, as they built both the 3 in America & then built up the Chinese 3 factory
2. They've got a lot of the robotics figured out, as well as the workflow, suppliers, quality improvement systems, etc.
3. They're replicated a basically iterative design (Model Y as a chubby Model 3, and it already has a pretty much finalized design)

Lots of neat stuff on the horizon:

1. Model Y
2. Semi-truck
3. Roadster 2.0
4. Pickup truck

 

[Brainonska511]

Elon Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving in early access this year, without supervision next year

Elon Musk: Tesla Full Self-Driving in early access this year, without supervision next year

Elon Musk has clarified Tesla’s timeline to achieve “Full Self-Driving,” which he thinks could be in the early access program,...

electrek.co

Considering what the experts, who have been studying these things for ages, say about when fully autonomous vehicles may be road ready (and all that is needed to make them ready for a variety of road conditions), I'm highly skeptical of Tesla's and Elon's claims.

 

[Kaido]

Considering what the experts, who have been studying these things for ages, say about when fully autonomous vehicles may be road ready (and all that is needed to make them ready for a variety of road conditions), I'm highly skeptical of Tesla's and Elon's claims.

FSD works pretty well on the highway, but right now, today, it still doesn't avoid potholes & it still drives right in the center of the lane with a bobbing semi-truck next to you. Plus Tesla's turnover rate for their Autopilot team has been pretty high for years now. To me, it seems like they're still 5 to 10 years away from hands-free FSD...

 

[bigi]

<quote>Since when does Tesla care about quality control?

</quote>

Since they sell most cars for the money in the US, which is really 1 model killing everyone in sight.
Since they can't keep up with 100,000 cars per quarter to satisfy orders
Since they have the best products on the market that entire world minus morons desire.
Since they showed BVM, MB and others that their products are 100 year old obsolete crap.

 

[ponyo]

Lot of Y sightings on the road. I think this car looks good. I would get this over the 3. And I suspect we'll start seeing deliveries in the Spring of 2020 instead of summer. Just my guess.

 

[Kaido]

Lot of Y sightings on the road. I think this car looks good. I would get this over the 3. And I suspect we'll start seeing deliveries in the Spring of 2020 instead of summer. Just my guess.

I mean, it shares most of its design with the 3, so I'd imagine it's really just the body & the glass that's getting overhauled, and they've already figured out how to tighten down the body panels, as well as built another plant in China, and will be building one in Europe, so I think they've got the build-chain figured out as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to deliver early either!

I think the Model Y is going to be a HUGE hit. If you're going to invest in stock, do so now! Model Y, semi-truck, Roadster 2.0, Tesla pickup truck, plus the roofing was recently (re)announced...lots of great things in the pipeline!

 

[ponyo]

I mean, it shares most of its design with the 3, so I'd imagine it's really just the body & the glass that's getting overhauled, and they've already figured out how to tighten down the body panels, as well as built another plant in China, and will be building one in Europe, so I think they've got the build-chain figured out as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to deliver early either!

I think the Model Y is going to be a HUGE hit. If you're going to invest in stock, do so now! Model Y, semi-truck, Roadster 2.0, Tesla pickup truck, plus the roofing was recently (re)announced...lots of great things in the pipeline!

Second half of 2020 should be fantastic for Tesla. Giga3 in China should be ramping by then and I suspect TSLA will be added to the S&P 500 index in the second half of next year if they can maintain their profit for 2020 Q1 and Q2. The S&P 500 addition is going to be big deal when it happens but nothing is for certain since I suspect 2020 Q1 profit will be tough due to seasonality. I added more Tesla shares and am now at 1,150. I also added some Jan 2021 $300 and $420 calls before the previous Q3 earnings. I picked $420 just for lol and sold some of the calls after Q3 earnings. Now I'm playing with house money on the $300 and $420. I'm going to continue to add to Tesla shares whenever I can as I feel it's the most misunderstood and undervalued tech growth stock in the entire stock market.

 

[KentState]

I hope it comes soon. I liked the 3 enough after the test drive that I've thrown around the idea of cancelling my Y order and just getting a 3 instead. The hatch back is the one thing that keeps me waiting.

 

[rstrohkirch]

Too bad it was available now for a test drive now. My vehicle is done in Feb 2020. I don't really care for the looks of any of the Tesla but maybe a test drive will win me over. It's actually cheaper than what I'm expecting to spend currently.

 

[Kaido]

 

[NutBucket]

OK, it's way better than an X...but still not an SUV by any means. Actually.....

 

[K1052]

This thing is really growing on me...

 

[KentState]

I really hope they over different rims for it. I'm not a fan of all the chrome being blacked out and having bright silver rims. I'd be fine with the gray from the 3.

 

[Kaido]

I really hope they over different rims for it. I'm not a fan of all the chrome being blacked out and having bright silver rims. I'd be fine with the gray from the 3.

Aftermarket rim options is one of my biggest issues with Teslas. I haven't found a single one that I like yet.

Although I'm not worried about the color...you can always just get them plasti-dipped in whatever color & finish you'd like (the technology has come a loooooong way in recent years).

 

[Kaido]

I really hope they over different rims for it. I'm not a fan of all the chrome being blacked out and having bright silver rims. I'd be fine with the gray from the 3.

Speaking of rims I don't like:

Tesla Model Y prototype spotted with unreleased Model 3 unveil wheels

Another Tesla Model Y prototype has been spotted, and this time it was equipped with the unreleased old turbine wheels...

electrek.co

Brought to you by Rolls Royce Turbine Engines, lol

 

[KentState]

I actually like the looks of those, but would reserve judgement until I could see them in person.

 

[rstrohkirch]

I still find it hard to believe that they're trying to shove a 3rd row into that vehicle. My groceries don't need a seat belt.

 

[NutBucket]

Marketing. Doesn't mean they're useful for anyone except midgets.

 

[zinfamous]

I still find it hard to believe that they're trying to shove a 3rd row into that vehicle. My groceries don't need a seat belt.

They should put some bubble seats on the car like The Homer.

....this is something that I actually expect Musk to do at some point.

 

[Commodus]

I still find it hard to believe that they're trying to shove a 3rd row into that vehicle. My groceries don't need a seat belt.

If it's anything like the Model X, though, it'll strictly be an option for those people who somehow need to haul seven people. Realistically it'll just be extra cargo space for everyone else.