Tesla Motors death watch

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Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
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ElFenix

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Mar 20, 2000
102,425
8,388
126
A) I live in a major city (fourth largest) and I have not seen one.

B) Maybe you are right. I'll try to keep an eye out for one.

And sorry for calling folks out. I guess my point was not well stated. It could be that you are seeing the same Tesla over and over again. Again, given the small population sold, it should be a rarity to see one (Imported may be a different case since he lives close to two dealerships).

i may be seeing the same handful over and over again but i've seen them all around the galleria and in memorial park. i don't think you're going to see them on your commute as much because they're a bit of an in-town car.
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,547
651
126
They can buy Tesla cars with the money they would spend on guns but are not allowed to

I should add some value to this post. It seems many analysts agree with what I'm saying.
Tesla hopelessly overvalued (1 day ago)
True value is estimated to be $45/share (today)
Forbes (sep 23)
Estimated to be worth 40% of its sep 5 price
Tesla is overvalued and everyone but Anandtech knows it (sep 10)


Must folks here admit they're overvalued. You're the idiot comparing the company to McDonalds and believes the company is going to die.
 

Joe1987

Senior member
Jul 20, 2013
482
0
0
LOL, all the talk about actually seeing a Model S in meatspace, One was parked next to me tonight when I got off work, they look really good. Not as good as my 02' Z3M, but damn good
 

MaxDepth

Diamond Member
Jun 12, 2001
8,758
43
91
Just looked up the S. For my god-forsaken state of NC (where they tried to ban the car), I get a $7500 Fed tax break and I do not have an occupancy requirement to use the HOV lanes (not like there is a ton of them in NC).

But I see I can use the HOV lanes in Virginia which rocks!


They have a huge waiting list, and every one is sold before they leave the production line.

The base model S is $61K (before the tax credits) with a 3 month wait

http://www.teslamotors.com/models/design
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
EDIT:
I made a mistake here. Free cash flow is operating income - capex.


I ran Tesla through a spreadsheet I made and some of the numbers are interesting. For starters, just look at Q2 of this year. Ratio of current assets to current liabilities is a bit more than 2, so the company is solvent for at least a year. Now look a bit closer at the numbers. Of the 1.13B in current assets, 746M or 66% is cash and short term investments. Since Tesla has not once had a positive operating income, where does this money come from? Flip to the cash flow page. For 2013:
Cash from selling stock: 590M
Cash from debt: 204M
Total = 794M
The company is literally borrowing money to make the minimum payments on its debt. It would be like I make $50,000 per year at my job, but food and shelter and medical adds up to $60,000. Since I'm running at a net loss, I borrow $100,000 from the bank and use that money to make the minimum payments on $100,000 debt. The bank statement says I'm sitting on a lot of cash, and I easily have enough to make the payments for a few years, but eventually I'll run out of money and go bankrupt.

It gets even more interesting when you realize the net income reported by a company is not really the net income. The reported net income does not include capital expenditures which would be things like putting new tires on a truck, fixing the roof, or other maintenance related things. The true net profit of a company is Free Cash Flow; it's the net income minus the capital expenditures. For Q1 of this year, the quarter everyone thinks was profitable, free cash flow was -46M. Q2 was -117M. This company is bleeding money like crazy. Tesla goes in the same category as AMD. It's here now, but it will eventually die. Actually, Tesla is doing WORSE than AMD because AMD had positive free cash flow for 2010 and 2011 while Tesla has never had positive free cash flow. AMD's current ratio is 1.69 even though they haven't taken on new debt and haven't sold many shares this year.
 
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Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,547
651
126
I ran Tesla through a spreadsheet I made and some of the numbers are interesting. For starters, just look at Q2 of this year. Ratio of current assets to current liabilities is a bit more than 2, so the company is solvent for at least a year. Now look a bit closer at the numbers. Of the 1.13B in current assets, 746M or 66% is cash and short term investments. Since Tesla has not once had a positive operating income, where does this money come from? Flip to the cash flow page. For 2013:
Cash from selling stock: 590M
Cash from debt: 204M
Total = 794M
The company is literally borrowing money to make the minimum payments on its debt. It would be like I make $50,000 per year at my job, but food and shelter and medical adds up to $60,000. Since I'm running at a net loss, I borrow $100,000 from the bank and use that money to make the minimum payments on $100,000 debt. The bank statement says I'm sitting on a lot of cash, and I easily have enough to make the payments for a few years, but eventually I'll run out of money and go bankrupt.

It gets even more interesting when you realize the net income reported by a company is not really the net income. The reported net income does not include capital expenditures which would be things like putting new tires on a truck, fixing the roof, or other maintenance related things. The true net profit of a company is Free Cash Flow; it's the net income minus the capital expenditures. For Q1 of this year, the quarter everyone thinks was profitable, free cash flow was -46M. Q2 was -117M. This company is bleeding money like crazy. Tesla goes in the same category as AMD. It's here now, but it will eventually die. Actually, Tesla is doing WORSE than AMD because AMD had positive free cash flow for 2010 and 2011 while Tesla has never had positive free cash flow. AMD's current ratio is 1.69 even though they haven't taken on new debt and haven't sold many shares this year.

/facepalm

Why aren't you using AMD's financials from it's first five years of existence(or another automaker) to compare against Tesla?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
LOL, all the talk about actually seeing a Model S in meatspace, One was parked next to me tonight when I got off work, they look really good. Not as good as my 02' Z3M, but damn good

But... did you key it?

Only thing that matters.
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
/facepalm

Why aren't you using AMD's financials from it's first five years of existence(or another automaker) to compare against Tesla?

http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Advanced_Micro_Devices_(AMD)/Data/Free_Cash_Flow
Year 1: +14M
Year 2: -9M
Year 3: -412M
Year 4: -286M
Year 5: -852M

Right from the get go, AMD beats Tesla because they had positive cash flow in the first year. Similarly, the only significant positive cash flow for AMD were 400M in 2000 (dot com bubble) and 132M in 2011. People who buy Tesla and AMD are the same people who walk into a casino and don't stop gambling until they've lost everything. btw AMD's current stock price is $3.90. That's hilarious because I said on page 1 that I thought Tesla was worth $3.23/share :awe:


On an unrelated note, wtf does this mean? "68% of TSLA trades are buys"
And what are the other 32%? Are they given out as free gifts?
 
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Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
91
On an unrelated note, wtf does this mean? "68% of TSLA trades are buys"
And what are the other 32%? Are they given out as free gifts?

I don't understand this eaither. As though 68% of those trades has no sellers? There is a buyer and seller for every single share. It's not complicated. And hte thing is, even if this 68% is real, does it matter?
 

Spungo

Diamond Member
Jul 22, 2012
3,217
2
81
I don't understand this eaither. As though 68% of those trades has no sellers? There is a buyer and seller for every single share. It's not complicated. And hte thing is, even if this 68% is real, does it matter?

It could, depending on circumstances. Imagine you own shares in a company like McDonalds. McDonalds decides to issue $1B worth of new shares. 68% of them are sold to raise capital and improve the business, the other 32% are basically stolen because they are given to the board members at no cost. I would be pretty pissed off if a company was that poorly managed.
I'm not saying Tesla is doing that. It's just another one of those fake ads. Tesla should probably hunt those people down and sue the shit out of them for libel. The ad is stating that the company is operating like a scam.
 

Capt Caveman

Lifer
Jan 30, 2005
34,547
651
126
http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Advanced_Micro_Devices_(AMD)/Data/Free_Cash_Flow
Year 1: +14M
Year 2: -9M
Year 3: -412M
Year 4: -286M
Year 5: -852M

Right from the get go, AMD beats Tesla because they had positive cash flow in the first year. Similarly, the only significant positive cash flow for AMD were 400M in 2000 (dot com bubble) and 132M in 2011. People who buy Tesla and AMD are the same people who walk into a casino and don't stop gambling until they've lost everything. btw AMD's current stock price is $3.90. That's hilarious because I said on page 1 that I thought Tesla was worth $3.23/share :awe:


On an unrelated note, wtf does this mean? "68% of TSLA trades are buys"
And what are the other 32%? Are they given out as free gifts?

LOL. I knew you were trolling, nobody can be this stupid unless you're in hs or college still.
 

Joe1987

Senior member
Jul 20, 2013
482
0
0
But... did you key it?

Only thing that matters.

Too many security cameras :ninja:

Bought to close my covered calls today, and sold my underlying Tesla stock, looks like the correction has started, but what the hell, I'm wrong frequently.

If it trends down a bit, will rebuy it.
 

makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
This will be interesting to watch. My stop-loss is set at 300% profit, and I'm still a long ways off from triggering it; might be a good opportunity to play with some puts.

Gonna be keeping an eye on how Tesla handles this and how the market reacts. Thus far negative press hasn't affected it much at all, but there hasn't been anything this serious yet.

busting out the /popcorn.
 

Eug

Lifer
Mar 11, 2000
23,753
1,311
126
Hmmmm... In the US, my car would usually be around $25-30 US to fill up, for about 300-350 miles.
So, at my last fillup:

33.352 litres for 596.1 km. That works out to 8.8 gallons for 370.4 miles, or 44 mpg, with mostly city driving.

At US$3.40 per gallon, that works out to ~$30 for the tank.

So, somehow paying $80 for a battery swap and having to swap back the batteries on the way back just doesn't seem very enticing.
 
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