Tesla Motors death watch

[CZroe]

I am going to be laughing at OP so hard when Apple buys or effectively partners with Tesla.

Mark. My. Words.

 

[norseamd]

Apple purchasing Tesla would be a fucking genocide for the electric transportation industry.

 

[marincounty]

Anyone thinking Tesla is going do die anytime soon is dreaming. Years ago I watched apple stock go up and down, and I predicted that one day soon it would go down for the count.
Boy was I wrong, shoulda bought Apple stock, it went into orbit.
Never underestimate people's appetite for overpriced shiny objects.

 

[CZroe]

Apple purchasing Tesla would be a fucking genocide for the electric transportation industry.

Apple wants that battery tech. They've had it with the A123 Systems lawsuit.

 

[Wreckem]

That's definitely possible.




Do fanboys ever stop to think about how ridiculous they sound?

"Nuh uh! This company will never go out of business and they're going to be bestest company evar!!! If you don't agree, you're just a poopy head!!!"

Companies rise and fall all the time. Is it possible that maybe someone has looked at the same information and come to a different conclusion than you?

As a car company they may never be successful in a traditional way. Going forward they will be very successful as a battery company with the majority of the worlds battery production. Once their GigaFactory is up, their batteries won't just be in their high end fancy electric sports cars, they will be in almost every personal electronic device.

While it is yet to be seen if their car will ever be truely successful(as in profitable) they have advanced and will continue to advance battery technology.

 

[Linux23]

when is their battery factory coming online?

 

[TechBoyJK]

when is their battery factory coming online?

asap

 

[Griffinhart]

I think Tesla is safe for another few years. In my area the Tesla is the pinnacle car. Everyone who has medium money is looking to buy/lease one.

The Brand has such a positive image that they can probably sell the goodwill alone.

Medium money? 75K for the cheap version over 5 years at zero percent interest is $1250 a month for a car payment. Plus applicable taxes. There is nothing "medium money" about that kind of car payment.

 

[BoberFett]

As a car company they may never be successful in a traditional way. Going forward they will be very successful as a battery company with the majority of the worlds battery production. Once their GigaFactory is up, their batteries won't just be in their high end fancy electric sports cars, they will be in almost every personal electronic device.

While it is yet to be seen if their car will ever be truely successful(as in profitable) they have advanced and will continue to advance battery technology.

I'd say that's a more likely possibility than ever being more than a tiny niche in the auto world. The many other major auto manufacturers with revenue Tesla can only dream of aren't going to sit idly by and watch electric tech pass them up.

 

[Ichinisan]

A software update to end range anxiety on all model S vehicles? Really?
http://www.engadget.com/2015/03/15/tesla-range-event-march-19/

 

[Brovane]

A software update to end range anxiety on all model S vehicles? Really?
http://www.engadget.com/2015/03/15/tesla-range-event-march-19/

The man knows how to create a buzz.....

 

[Brovane]

when is their battery factory coming online?

Probably around 2017 if they can remain on schedule.

 

[holden j caufield]

does anyone see value at $190/share or are you waiting for it to go lower?

 

[IronWing]

Saw my first Tesla this weekend charging in a restaurant parking lot; not a bad looking car.

 

[Zeze]

does anyone see value at $190/share or are you waiting for it to go lower?

I haven't done much market research on Tesla.

But how much dominance does Tesla have for future growth? Battery tech is likely coming along in full force by Toyota & Benz, as well as driverless systems by aforementioned + Audi + Google.

I mean, I'm sure Tesla will continue to be a great force. But as far as stock price, I don't think there will be further bursts (+100-300%) of increase as they're already at $190-200/share.

 

[ultimatebob]

Saw my first Tesla this weekend charging in a restaurant parking lot; not a bad looking car.

I see them all the time around here, since we have free supercharger stations in our travel plazas.

 

[Artdeco]

does anyone see value at $190/share or are you waiting for it to go lower?

Put in a buy limit at $180, but unless you're going to try to trade the highs and lows, I'd buy something else, TBH.

 

[calygyrl]

You can analyze Tesla's business model, their P & L statements, quarterly earnings, any other traditional business metric...but IMO Tesla is much more than just another corporation. They are on their own path of innovation and bringing "proof of concept" ideas to the mass market so we, as in the global community, can explore what works and what doesn't. Has Tesla succeeded with this? I believe so.

Regarding a "death watch"...I don't think there is one...but so many variables while the company grows...depends on the development of the battery that powers the car (which may or may not be lithium in the future) and the improvement of collecting solar power and who knows what else...

My bet is with Tesla. I have a Roadster and I love it.

(I also own a small niche business which people told me wouldn't make it. It's been 10 years now.)

 

[CZroe]

You can analyze Tesla's business model, their P & L statements, quarterly earnings, any other traditional business metric...but IMO Tesla is much more than just another corporation. They are on their own path of innovation and bringing "proof of concept" ideas to the mass market so we, as in the global community, can explore what works and what doesn't. Has Tesla succeeded with this? I believe so.

Regarding a "death watch"...I don't think there is one...but so many variables while the company grows...depends on the development of the battery that powers the car (which may or may not be lithium in the future) and the improvement of collecting solar power and who knows what else...

My bet is with Tesla. I have a Roadster and I love it.

(I also own a small niche business which people told me wouldn't make it. It's been 10 years now.)

Congrats!

I was so disappointed when they first showed the Model S. That's mostly because the more sport-styled Roadster was effectively discontinued after that. The Model S just doesn't look sporty to me.

 

[calygyrl]

Thanks!

My guess is that the Model S was designed to "fit in" with the rest of the cars that are in the consumer bracket it is marketed to. It is attractive, but yea, much less sporty looking than the roadster.

This Rimac electric car is nice, too. Even qualifies as a supercar whatever that is....maybe because of the superprice ($1,000,000 USD).

 

[Linux23]

I make a prediction that everyone in this thread is, eventually, going to die.

 

[Spungo]

I make a prediction that everyone in this thread is, eventually, going to die.

That's as easy a prediction as saying Tesla's stock is massively overpriced.

Look at Tesla's earnings for all of 2014:
Net profit = negative $294 million
Cash from operations = negative $57 million
Free cash flow = negative $1.0 billion

2014 was a year of record cash burn. $2.7 billion of their cash came from debt and selling stock.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Hate to bump this.... but..... Wonder what OP's thoughts are after today's earnings announcement of a first time profit.

 

[Brovane]

Hate to bump this.... but..... Wonder what OP's thoughts are after today's earnings announcement of a first time profit.

Well from a skeptic stand-point you have a couple of items that to me are problematic despite the positive news financially.

1. The actual profit Tesla booked was based on selling $139M in ZEV credits, just these credits also would account for Tesla's profit.
2. Accounts Payable, the actual account payable went from 1.1B June 2016, to 2.3B Sept 2016 that is a good indication that Tesla is delaying paying it's bills some. Not sure if they delayed paying bills to prop up 3rd quarter results, but on the surface it seems suspicious.
3. Tesla under-spent it's predicted CapEx by about $400M. That could be because of timing but it doesn't bode well if the pace of investment to secure Model-3 production before the end of the year has slowed. This would indicate some issues readying the factory in Fremont and the Giga-Factory for production of the Model-3.

I am not saying that Tesla will fail and I am not saying they are out of the woods. Tesla has a narrow path to walk to bring the Model-3 into production and now Musk has added Integrating SolarCity into the mix without running out of cash. If the equity markets turn against Tesla and the stock crashes, things could ugly quick if Tesla needs to raise money.

 

[Craig234]

OP said there's a lot to be made by shorting them in 2013.

There wasn't. Stock price in 2013 was $34, it didn't go down, now it's $199. Not bad for 3 year investment.